Sea Level Variations Research Articles

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the dynamic sea level: Mean and interannual variance

Observational data from satellite altimetry were used to quantify the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variance of the dynamic sea level (DSL) over 40°S–40°N. In terms of the mean state, the models generally agree well with observations, and high consistency is apparent across different models. The largest bias and model discrepancy is located in the subtropical North Atlantic. As for simulation of the interannual variance, good agreement can be seen across different models, yet the models present a relatively low agreement with observations. The simulations show much weaker variance than observed, and bias is apparent over the subtropics in association with strong western boundary currents. This nearshore bias is reduced considerably in HighResMIP models. The underestimation of DSL interannual variance is at least partially due to the misrepresentation of ocean processes in the CMIP6 historical simulation with its relatively low resolution. The results identify directions for future model development towards a better understanding of the mean and interannual variability of DSL.摘要本研究采用卫星测高数据与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6) 海平面动力进行对比, 重点针对40°S–40°N地区的动力海平面 (DSL) , 评估了模式对其平均态与年际变率的综合模拟能力. 结果表明, 对于DSL平均态的模拟, 模式与观测结果非常吻合, 模式之间的差异较小. 其中, 副热带北大西洋是模拟偏差和模式间差异较为显著的区域. 对于DSL年际变率的模拟, 模式之间保持较高的一致性, 但是, 模式与观测结果存在明显差异, 模式普遍低估了DSL的年际方差; 其中, 误差大值区域出现在副热带西边界流附近. 模式分辨率会影响CMIP6对中小尺度海洋过程的重现能力, 这可能是导致CMIP6历史模拟出现误差的原因之一.

Effects of Anthropogenic Forcings on Multidecadal Variability of the Sea Level Around the Japanese Coast Simulated by MRI‐ESM2.0 for CMIP6

AbstractThe observed sea level (SL) around the Japanese coast shows a peculiar multidecadal variation with the peak in the 1950s followed by the gradual fall until the 1970s and the rebound continuing to the present, making the recent SL rise less remarkable in the historical record. The multidecadal SL variability of an ensemble mean of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 historical simulations using the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0 (MRI‐ESM2.0) compares well with the observation and is greater than the piControl one, implying the observed variability could be a forced one. The MRI‐ESM2.0 simulations for the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project suggest the increase in anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases caused the fall and rise of the SL, respectively. Additional sensitivity runs indicate the surface heat loss in the North Pacific due to anthropogenic aerosols plays a dominant role in the SL fall.

Astronomical forced sequence infill of Early Cambrian Qiongzhusi organic-rich shale of Sichuan Basin, South China

Early Cambrian Qiongzhusi Formation has attracted great attention due to shale gas finding. However, this organic-rich shale formation is yet no robust high-resolution stratigraphic sequence framework. Here the evidence on Milankovitch cycles in three wells drilled through Qiongzhusi (QZS) Formation in Sichuan Basin has been reported. The logging data made it possible to develop a floating timeline calibrated to stable eccentricity cycles of 405-kyr within ~10.92 and ~7.34 Myr intervals in intracratonic rift and low bulge of Sichuan Basin, respectively. In this research, astronomical time scale was anchored to the UPb Zircon age of QZS Formation/Maidiping Formation boundary (526.86 ± 0.16 Ma), developing an absolute timescale for considered intervals extending from 526.86 to 515.94 Ma. Average spectral misfit and correlation coefficient analyses were applied to quantitatively measure the fitting of the witnessed sedimentary cycles to astronomical periods and provide a possible sedimentation rate range. A sedimentary noise model was chosen to detect high-resolution sea-level variations under the control of orbital forcing and variations of sea-level were linked to obliquity modulation cycles of about 1.2 Myr. The orbital obliquity modulation cycles witnessed for early Cambrian QZS Formation (~1.2 Myr) were correlated to eustatic variations of sea level generated based on sedimentary noise model (DYNOT and ρ1). Furthermore, correlations between sequence stratigraphy and cyclostratigraphy were discussed, and the third-order sequence boundaries well corresponded to minima ~1.2 Myr orbital obliquity modulation curve and high values of DYNOT. The previous sequences framework was demonstrated to be isochronous and credible.

Holocene sea-level rise and coastal aquifer interactions: Triggering mechanisms for environmental change and impacts on human settlement patterns at Dor, Israel

Future sea-level rise is expected to affect coastal aquifers and environments and have significant impacts on coastal communities. Here, we describe the impact of early to late Holocene sea-level variations on the coastal environment and human settlements of the Carmel Coast, Israel. One of these ancient communities, Tel Dor, was settled initially during the Late Pottery Neolithic (ca. 7 ka) on a wetland surface and then abandoned for ca. 1.5 ka before resettlement occurred on the adjacent aeolianite ridge from the Middle Bronze Age to the Crusader period (4.3–0.9 cal Ka BP). For the first time, high resolution chrono-bio-chemo-stratigraphy of sediment cores collected landward of the current shoreline at Dor are presented capturing a record of poorly sorted sand mixed with marine shells, well sorted aeolian sand and silty clay deposits. The record represents a series of brackish-freshwater wetlands formed in the coastal area of Dor between ca. 15 to 7 ka in response to relative sea-level rise and resulting rise of the coastal aquifers. After 7 ka, due to rising sea level and a transgressing shoreline, sand largely derived from the Nile Delta, reached the coast including the coastal wetland. Landward from the current shoreline, the period between ca. 7 to 4 ka is represented by alternating sand-silt facies consisting of reworked marine shells and brackish-fresh water biota. These lithological cycles reflect fluctuations between coastal and wetland environments governed by the response of the coastal aquifer to sea-level rise. Rapid sea-level rise led to a rise in the groundwater table and inundation of the area around Tel Dor, while periods with slower rates of sea-level rise resulted in coastal sand deposition. The settlement gap at Dor between 7 and 5.6 ka possibly reflects the behavioral response of the coastal settlers to sea-level fluctuation, and sediment depositional variation instigating aquifer inundation coastal marsh development and mobilization of sand bodies. This study provides a record of beach profile build-up along the Mediterranean coast of Israel and serves as an example of how sea-level rise affect unconfined coastal aquifers and the formation of wetlands due to rising water tables in low elevation coasts. Coastal inundation is a long-term risk factor for densely populated low-lying coastal regions that require a proactive approach for solving cascading impacts of sea-level rise.

Analysis of coastal altimetry in the Mexican Caribbean

A reprocessing of sea-level anomalies (SLA) resulting from X-TRACK coastal altimetry was carried out for the ENVISAT (2002–2010) and TOPEX/POSEIDON-Jason (1992–2019) satellite missions in the coastal area of the Mexican Caribbean. This consisted of applying a tidal correction to coastal altimetry sea level observations. Harmonic analysis of five coastal tide gauge records was performed to estimate the most important tidal components of the area, resulting on M2, N2, O1, S2, K1, MF, and MM. The tidal signal was reconstructed with the seven tidal components using the TPXO9 model. The SLA signals corrected with the seven tidal components were validated with in situ data from coastal tide gauges. The validation showed that the TPXO9 tidal barotropic model (1/30° grid) used to reconstruct the tidal signal with the seven representative tidal components performed better than the FES2012 global model (1/16° grid) that uses 33 tidal components. The reprocessed SLAs showed clear seasonality with significant signals at 4, 6, and 12 months, with the annual signal being the dominant one. In the Mexican Caribbean coastal zone, oceanographic processes with different scales (from coastal to mesoscale) converge, showing their complexity in the different SLA signals observed. The aim of this work is to contribute to the analysis of coastal altimetry data and understanding the sea level variations in the Mexican Caribbean. This work is the first step in the implementation of methodologies that take advantage of coastal satellite altimetry in the Caribbean Sea.

Paleoenvironmental redox evolution of Ediacaran-Cambrian restricted seas in the core of West Gondwana: Insights from trace-metal geochemistry and stratigraphy of the Bambuí Group, east Brazil

The sedimentary evolution of the Bambuí foreland basin system in the interior of West Gondwana is marked by periods of connection and isolation from the global ocean during the late Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic. To understand the link between these periods and seawater redox conditions, we present an integrated study of trace-metal geochemistry and stratigraphy of the carbonate-siliciclastic rocks from the two lowermost second order transgressive-regressive sequences of the Bambuí Group, east Brazil. The basal 2nd-order sequence trace-metal pattern shows a progressive decrease of mass fractions of Co, Cr, Ni, Cu, Mo, U, V, Zn, and Cd, concomitant with a progressive decrease of Al and Fe contents and Mo/TOC ratios. Among all these elements, only Cd, Mo and U mass fractions seem to be less or not affected by detrital influence, so they can be used as reliable redox proxies for the paleoenvironmental analysis of the studied Bambuí strata. Moreover, normalization to aluminum shows a progressive increase of trace-metal enrichments for Cd and Mo in the order of 0.1–10 times and for U in the order of 1–100 times, accompanied by a progressive increase of organic carbon content upward section. These changes in sedimentary trace-metal patterns provide evidence for the chemical evolution of basinal deep-waters, whose conditions changed progressively from suboxic-anoxic to anoxic-euxinic at the basal transgressive-regressive sequence. We suggest that the paleomarine system represented by the basal Bambuí Group has probably evolved as an intracontinental silled basin recording changes in seawater chemistry associated with redox variations and restricted hydrographic conditions. Sedimentary trace-metal patterns indicate that Bambuí epeiric sea was initially in communication with open ocean followed by the marine restriction during the transgressive and regressive cycles, respectively. This resulted in a long deepwater residence time and chemical evolution of deep watermass as a response to tectonic pulses and consequent sea-level variations during the restricted stage. Under anoxic-euxinic conditions of seawater, trace metals scarcity and micronutrient fixation limitation would have impacted nitrate bioavailability, preventing the evolution of early benthic metazoans in the Bambuí paleomarine system during the late Ediacaran and early Cambrian.

Investigation of coastal environmental change at Ruddons Point, Fife, SE Scotland

Ruddons Point, on the Firth of Forth coastline, Scotland, is a laterally extensive terrace of glacial and marine sediment deposits raised above current sea-level, situated near to Kincraig Point, a key site that records a series of stepped erosional platforms carved into the local bedrock, interpreted as post Last Glacial Maximum palaeoshorelines. The deposits at Ruddons Point continue inland, with exposures of the raised sands and gravels cut by the local river, the Cocklemill Burn. The site provides an opportunity to examine the depositional history through the Late Devensian and Holocene. Geophysical survey aided in interpreting characteristics of subsurface sediments such as the transition between the younger saltmarsh sediments and older underlying sands and clays below, which slope in a northerly direction. A chronology obtained through optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating spans from c. 29 ka for sands and clays at an elevation of −0.66 mOD to surface windblown sands at <300 years, at an elevation of 8.45 mOD. A basal peat, dated by radiocarbon dating to the early Holocene at c. 9.2 ka, formed prior to the Main Postglacial Transgression. Dating of inland raised marine deposits along the Cocklemill Burn records dates ranging from c. 8.9 to c. 4.3 ka. The raised marine deposits of Ruddons Point range from c. 8.1 to c. 2.9 ka, deposited unconformably on glacial tills and clays. This multidisciplinary field study builds depositional scenarios utilizing two dating methods, spanning the last c. 29 ka, to better understand coastal evolution for a region which has experienced complex relative sea-level variations. Supplementary material : Supplementary data related to this research article is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6080999 Thematic collection: This article is part of the Early Career Research collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/topic/collections/early-career-research

Rainfall and sea level drove the expansion of seasonally flooded habitats and associated bird populations across Amazonia

Spatial arrangement of distinct Amazonian environments through time and its effect on specialized biota remain poorly known, fueling long-lasting debates about drivers of biotic diversification. We address the late Quaternary sediment deposition that assembled the world's largest seasonally flooded ecosystems. Genome sequencing was used to reconstruct the demographic history of bird species specialized in either early successional vegetation or mature floodplain forests. Sediment deposition that built seasonally flooded habitats accelerated throughout the Holocene (last 11,700 years) under sea level highstand and intensification of the South American Monsoon, at the same time as global increases in atmospheric methane concentration. Bird populations adapted to seasonally flooded habitats expanded due to enlargement of Amazonian river floodplains and archipelagos. Our findings suggest that the diversification of the biota specialized in seasonally flooded habitats is coupled to sedimentary budget changes of large rivers, which rely on combined effects of sea level and rainfall variations.

Barystatic and steric sea level variations in the Baltic Sea and implications of water exchange with the North Sea in the satellite era

Satellite altimetry, satellite gravimetry, and in-situ subsurface salinity and temperature profiles are used to investigate the total, barystatic, and steric sea level variations in the Baltic Sea, respectively. To estimate the steric sea level, the density variations are weighted in deeper layers to prevent overestimation of their contribution. We show that the sum of barystatic and steric components exhibits excellent cross correlation (0.9) with satellite altimetry sea level variations and also explains up to 84% of total signal variability from 2002 to 2019. Considering the dominance of barystatic sea level variations in the basin and the limitation of satellite gravimetry in resolving the mass change in water-land transition zones (known as the leakage problem), the mismatch is likely attributed to the inadequate accuracy of the barystatic datasets. The total sea level and its contributors are further decomposed into seasonal, interannual, and decadal temporal components. It is shown that despite its insignificant contributions to seasonal and interannual changes, the steric sea level plays an important role in decadal variations. Additionally, we show that the interannual variations of the barystatic sea level are governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation in the basin. The sea level variation in the North Sea is also examined to deduce the water exchange patterns on different time scales. A drop in the North Sea level can be seen from 2005 to 2011 which is followed by the Baltic Sea level with a ~3-year lag, implying the outflow from the Baltic Sea to the North Sea.

Rainfall and sea-level variability in the face of changing El Niño: evidence from the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands

Rainfall and sea-level variability in the face of changing El Niño: evidence from the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands

Investigations on the marine current regime in the maritime port of Constanta and its adjacent areas

The aim of this work is to analyse the marine currents distribution within Constanta port and its vicinity areas, in order to evaluate the impacts on port operations and coastal system as well. The currents propagation into the port basin and adjacent areas were the subject of ADCP measurements in relation with the incident waves and sea level variations. Certain experiments and special conditions were considered such as storm surges, storm induced currents, seiches propagation into the port basin, specific marine currents around the port jetties, and the influence of vertical water movements.

A decadal sea-level variability in Port-Said Harbour (Egypt)

This paper used hourly data from the sea-level recorder installed in Port-Said Harbour on the Eastern Egyptian Mediterranean Coast. The data covered one decade (2002–2011) and were used to describe the temporal sea-level variability off Port Said including; its mean sea level (MSL), annual rate trend, seasonal behaviour, main tidal features, and the different water levels. The T_TIDE program was applied to obtain the astronomical constituents and the residual elevations. Throughout the period of study, the MSL was 69.1 cm; reaching its minimum (63.5 cm) in 2007 and its maximum (74.5 cm) in 2006. Tides were mixed mainly semidiurnal, and the sea level had an increasing rate of 2.1 mm/yr. The Principal Lunar constituent (M2) had the largest astronomical amplitude of 13.4 cm, and the spring to neap ratio was 1.4. The sea level displayed seasonal alterations with the lowest values in spring and highest in summer. The residual heights varied between 11.60 and 110 cm with an average of 67.5 cm. Results revealed that the astronomical tide contributed with 2.3% in the observed sea level, while the surge contributed with 97.7%. The correlation between the sea-level fluctuations with the meteorological conditions in the vicinity of Port Said needs further investigation.

Early Holocene relative sea-level changes on the central east coast of the Yellow Sea

Paleo-relative sea level (paleo-RSL) records in the far-field are essential for constraining models for global sea level change. We compared the early Holocene RSL history on the central east coast of the Yellow Sea with those of Bohai Bay, the northernmost point, and Gunsan Bay, south of the study area. A multi-proxy approach, including lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, combined with radiocarbon and OSL dating, facilitated the generation of 28 sea level index points (SLIPs) using 11 borehole samples. Excavation of basal peat of the 10.3 ka in the study area established that the observed RSL of the transgression in the early Holocene was −14.88 m, which was much shallower than −27.9 m in Gunsan Bay at 9.8 ka and was similar to −17.3 m in Bohai Bay at 9.7 ka. The observed RSL and the prediction curves of the study area were compared with those of other areas. In Gunsan Bay, the early Holocene GIA prediction curves are consistent with those observed, which seems to be the result of a “low setting” of the crust thickness and mantle viscosity. Therefore, it is presumed that the significant difference in the elevations observed between the study area and Gunsan Bay is caused by the levering effect owing to the difference in the tectonic characteristics. Conversely, other observed groups during 7.6–6 ka have a similar slope to the prediction curve of the Early Holocene in the study site, and it is thought that the sediments of the early Holocene were eroded and re-deposited along the channel. These results are of great importance as data of sea level variability in the far field due to glacial collapse and as data for the GIA modeling process.

Stochastic renewal process model of time-variant tsunami hazard assessment under nonstationary effects of sea-level rise due to climate change

Tsunami-induced disasters present a significant threat to coastal communities. Under the effects of sea-level rise due to climate change, tsunami occurrence frequency and intensities would increase in a nonstationary manner due to the long-term progressive trend in the variability in sea level. Therefore, the reliability of coastal infrastructure systems affected by tsunami hazard will diminish over time. A procedure for hazard assessment that integrates tsunamis occurring at random times with evolving sea-level rise should be established. This paper presents a novel framework for the time-variant assessment of tsunami hazard considering the effects of nonstationary sea-level rise due to climate change based on a non-Poisson stochastic renewal process. A time-variant probabilistic sea-level rise is modeled by utilizing various climate models and existing data reported in several studies. The conditional tsunami hazard curves considering sea-level rise are estimated by performing tsunami propagation analyses under different sea-level rise cases and by Monte Carlo simulation, considering the uncertainties associated with earthquake fault movements. Finally, the new concept of time-variant tsunami hazard assessment considering the nonstationary effects of sea-level rise is developed according to a non-Poisson stochastic renewal process. An illustrative example is provided by applying the proposed framework to several municipalities in the Kochi Prefecture of Japan that are subjected to the anticipated Nankai-Tonankai earthquake. The effects of sea-level rise on time-variant tsunami hazard under Poisson and non-Poisson processes of earthquake occurrence are discussed.

Initiation of Infrasonic Geosphere Waves Caused by Explosive Eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai Volcano

The paper presents the results of processing recordings of abnormal signals, which originated during the eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano, and were registered by a laser nanobarograph and two laser strainmeters; there were three meters of sea-level variations, located in the Sea of Japan, and twelve meters of sea-level variations, located in the Pacific Ocean. Acoustic-gravity Lamb waves, generated in the atmosphere, caused disturbances of similar periods in the Earth’s crust, which were registered by laser strainmeters. Atmospheric impulse and Lamb waves during their propagation over the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan initiated meteorological tsunamis in their waters, at periods corresponding to the seiches (Eigen oscillations) of registration stations’ location areas. In the records of all sea wave recorders, we did not find signs of a classical tsunami origination, and in the records of laser strainmeters, we did not find signals corresponding to seabed displacements at the point of the volcano explosion that led to the formation of a classical tsunami.

Astronomical climate changes trigger Late Devonian bio- and environmental events in South China

One of the five great mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic is the Frasnian–Famennian (F F) mass extinction, for which the causes have not yet been identified. In this study, cyclostratigraphic analysis of two F F transition sections was carried out in South China: the Yangdi section, a marine slope facies, and the Lali section, a marine basin facies. Paleoclimate proxy data collected at high resolution along these sections include magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence geochemistry (Ca and Fe concentrations). Time series analysis and modeling of the proxy data reveal that frequencies comparable to those of the Earth's long and short orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession index characterize the two successions. Metronomic 405-kyr long orbital eccentricity cycles identified along the two sections were used to construct a floating astronomical time scale across the F F transition, revealing that 1000 kyr separates the Lower and Upper Kellwasser horizons (LKH and UKH), and ~1600 kyr separates the maximum values of the LKH and UKH δ 13 C excursions. The estimated duration of the UKH is 150 kyr, during which the first, second, and third extinctions of the F F biotic crisis lasted 120 kyr, 20 kyr, and 10 kyr, respectively. Sedimentary noise models of the magnetic susceptibility and Ca concentration time series indicate that changes in sedimentary noise correspond to sea level variations. Modeling suggests that the long orbital eccentricity cycles controlled sea surface temperatures, and that third-order eustatic changes were forced by the combined orbital eccentricity and obliquity variations. Finally, we propose an “astronomical climate change” model as a defining mechanism of the F F biotic crisis. • Milankovitch cycles were recognized from the Upper Devonian Yangdi and Lali sections. • Two FATSs (~4.2 and 4.8 myr) were constructed across the F F transition. • Timing and pacing of the F F mass extinction were determined based on the FATS. • Astronomical forced sea level and climate changes were detected in F F transition. • Astronomical forcing of climate triggers the F F mass extinction.

Benthic foraminifera in the Nakdong River Delta (southeast Korea) and their response to middle Holocene climatic change in the coastal environment of the East Asian margin

• Benthic foraminifera in the NRD contain the Marine, Bay, and Opportunistic taxa. • Precipitation and resultant river discharge increased in Korean Peninsula at ∼ 4 ka. • Two small maxima of low oxygen-resistant taxon represent the fluctuated TWC. • Replacement of two species implies the enhanced East Asian winter monsoon at 4.6 ka. Fossil benthic foraminifera from five cores in the Nakdong River Delta (southeast Korea) were investigated to reveal paleoenvironmental changes across the middle/late Holocene transition, particularly focusing on ∼4 ka climatic event. Based on multi-dimensional scaling, benthic foraminifera are divided into (1) Marine taxa, (2) Bay taxa, and (3) Opportunistic taxa. Planktonic/total (benthic and planktonic) foraminiferal ratio decreased abruptly during 4.6–3.3 ka, and Nonionella stella was found commonly across ∼4 ka in core ND-01 (intermediate site among the five cores). These results imply that the ∼4 ka climatic event led to the stratification of less saline epilimnetic water underlain by more saline oxygen-poor hypolimnetic water in the Nakdong River Delta. This indicates temporal increase in precipitation in the Nakdong River drainage, which can be attributed to the intensified rainfall with the second Changma peak, associated with typhoons toward the Korean Peninsula. The small twin maxima of N. stella across ∼4 ka in core ND-01 were similar to those of the total sulfur contents in both Yeja Bay (southern Korea) and Lake Togo-ike (southwestern Japan). Such similarity in the stratigraphic patterns among the remote locations can be explained by the small-scale sea-level variations with the fluctuation of the Tsushima Warm Current, in addition to changes in precipitation. The common species of Haynesina sp. A was replaced by Elphidium somaense after ∼4.6 ka, which is likely due to the shift of passive dispersal as a result of the enhanced East Asian winter monsoon and/or the change in the westerly jet path.

Sea level variability along the Japanese coast forced by the Kuroshio and its extension

Sea level variability along the Japanese coast and its relation to the Kuroshio-Kuroshio Extension (KE) are investigated using ocean reanalysis data. The first mode of an empirical-orthogonal-function for the coastal sea-level represents a simultaneous sea-level change along the whole Japanese coast, which is synchronized with sea levels in the KE region , the Japan Sea and the East China Sea. The second mode is characterized by an east–west dipole pattern at the south coast. The first mode is correlated with the Kuroshio variations around the Izu–Ogasawara Ridge (IOR) and tends to be in a positive phase when the Kuroshio takes a nearshore path around IOR. The Kuroshio’s position around IOR is closely related to the KE dynamic state. When the KE jet is in a stable (unstable) state, a nearshore (meandering) Kuroshio path is formed around IOR. A composite analysis suggests that the sea level along the Japanese coast becomes high due to propagation of coastal trapped waves when the Kuroshio takes a nearshore path around IOR. That is why the first mode is synchronized with the KE decadal variability. The second mode has a close relation with the Kuroshio Large Meander (LM). The eastern positive anomaly at the coast between the Izu and Kii Peninsulas is formed by warm Kuroshio water brought by a westward branch flow along the coast. The western negative anomaly is attributed to a southward shift in the Kuroshio south of the Kii Peninsula associated with the LM.

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Abstract. Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes due to natural and anthropogenic drivers in short-duration records and increases uncertainty in trend and acceleration estimates. When making regional coastal management and adaptation decisions, it is important to understand the drivers of these changes to account for periods of reduced or enhanced sea-level change. The variance in decadal sea-level trends about the global mean is quantified and mapped around the global coastlines of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans from historical CMIP6 runs and a high-resolution ocean model forced by reanalysis data. We reconstruct coastal, sea-level trends via linear relationships with climate mode and oceanographic indices. Using this approach, more than one-third of the variability in decadal sea-level trends can be explained by climate indices at 24.6 % to 73.1 % of grid cells located within 25 km of a coast in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. At 10.9 % of the world's coastline, climate variability explains over two-thirds of the decadal sea-level trend. By investigating the steric, manometric, and gravitational components of sea-level trend independently, it is apparent that much of the coastal ocean variability is dominated by the manometric signal, the consequence of the open-ocean steric signal propagating onto the continental shelf. Additionally, decadal variability in the gravitational, rotational, and solid-Earth deformation (GRD) signal should not be ignored in the total. There are locations such as the Persian Gulf and African west coast where decadal sea-level variability is historically small that are susceptible to future changes in hydrology and/or ice mass changes that drive intensified regional GRD sea-level change above the global mean. The magnitude of variance explainable by climate modes quantified in this study indicates an enhanced uncertainty in projections of short- to mid-term regional sea-level trend.

Organic matter accumulations in the Santonian-Campanian (Upper Cretaceous) lacustrine Nenjiang shale (K2n) in the Songliao Basin, NE China: Terrestrial responses to OAE3?

The local and/or global environmental effects on the organic matter (OM) enrichment in ancient sediments has long received extensive attention. The Upper Cretaceous Nenjiang lacustrine shale (K2n) is one of the most essential hydrocarbon source rocks in NE China with massive OM deposition across the Santonian–Campanian boundary interval, which can be correlated with the terminal stage of the last oceanic anoxic event in the Cretaceous, OAE3. This study focuses on the lower part of the Nenjiang Formation from drill core A-1 in the Songliao Basin paleo-lake system, and highlights two episodes of enhanced OM accumulation controlled by distinct mechanisms. During the first episode in Member 1 of K2n (K2n1), total organic carbon (TOC) values reach a maximum of ~8.0% but fluctuate rapidly. The second episode occurs at the base of the Member 2 of K2n (K2n2) and is associated with a more transient and rapid OM enrichment event exhibited as a single-peak TOC pulse (maximum ~13%). Inorganic and organic geochemical indicators consistently show that two OM accumulation episodes are controlled by different environmental backgrounds: (1) the pristane/phytane values, homohopane index, and the distribution of the redox-sensitive elements suggest that the oxygen content of the bottom water during the K2n1 was relatively lower with transient euxinia (anoxic and sulfidic water column); (2) the paleoproductivity and OM source indicators illustrated that marine-sourced OM occurred during K2n1, whereas terrestrial paleoproductivity had a greater impact on the OM accumulation during K2n2; (3) the water connectivity indicators demonstrate strong periodic seawater incursions during the K2n1, yet the environment during the early stage of K2n2 is more restricted and the paleolake was dominated by fresh-water. It is also underscored that terrestrial envi ronments might be more sensitive to climatic perturbations associated with OAEs. The rapid sea-level (lake-level) variations possibly controlled the distinct OM types and accumulation mechanisms and resulted in different OM accumulation patterns in the lower part of the K2n during the Santonian–Campanian. The widely distributed OM-rich sediments of the K2n in the Songliao Basin indicate that the enhanced burial of OM in terrestrial environment, along with similar coeval OM-rich deposits worldwide, can create important negative feedbacks to changes in the global exogenic carbon cycle possibly contributing to OAE3.