Exchange Rate Variability Research Articles

The Analysis Between Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rates, Inflation and Gross Domestic Product in Developing and Developed Countries Asia and Europe During Covid-19 Pandemic

The study aims to analyze Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and exchange rates, inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in developing and developed countries in Asia and Europe during the covid-19 pandemic. The data used secondary data, obtained from the websites of the Central Bank of Indonesia, World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) from 2003 to 2020. This research used method of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that the GDP, inflation and exchange rate variables have positive and negative responses to changes in PPP values during the observation period, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. This condition can occur because the economy in each country experiences fluctuations, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. This has an impact on the PPP value in these 10 countries, which causes each country to take financial and monetary policies in accordance with the problems they face

Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Melalui Kebijakan Makroprudensial di 5 Negara ASEAN

The objectives of the research include efforts to explore the macroprudential impact on financial system stability (FSS) and economy in 5 (five) ASEAN member countries during the period 2013 to 2019. The methodology of this study is based on the application of the Mutant Method, VAR, and Ardl Panel. Analysis of the research results revealed that the variables Rii Interest Rate (SBR), Money Supply (JUB), Exchange Rate, and Loan to Depocit Ratio (LDR) simultaneously have a significant influence on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In addition, SBR and JUB have also proven to have an impact on the inflation rate. The results also produced a panel of leading indicators, consisting of the Inflation Index (INF) and currency exchange rates, as a marker of the effectiveness of control variables on economic stability in ASEAN countries. This indicator shows that INF and exchange rates play an important role in controlling economic stability, with controls in the short to long term. These findings provide significant insight into key factors affecting economic stability in the ASEAN region, providing the basis for more effective policy formulation in the future.

Exchange Rate And National Output Performances: The Implication On Nigeria’s Economy

The study investigated the effect of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The data were obtained from Statistical Bulletin published by the Central Bank of Nigeria 2021. The empirical studies reviewed had divergent views on the impact of exchange rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The study began with the test of unit root using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Peron (PP) unit root tests, followed by Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM). The VECM indicated that exchange rate appreciation contracts output. The granger causality tests revealed that exchange rate and economic growth reinforce one another. However, based on these findings, it becomes imperative to build adequate foreign reserve to cushion-off trade shocks, promote import substitute industries, diversification of economy and enhance export oriented industries and reduction in cost of borrowing to enable domestic firms to benefit from the theoretical advantages of exchange rate variation. These measures promote the performances of macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. 
 

The Productivity and Carbon Exchange of an Intensively Managed Pasture in Central Kentucky

Intensive pasture management that aims at providing season-long forage while minimizing soil degradation is increasingly becoming an important grazing strategy in Kentucky. Typically, it involves the use of high-yielding warm and cool season forage species that are well suited to local soil and climate conditions, meeting the dual-purpose provision of high nutritional value while remaining resilient to grazing pressure and changing climate. Monitoring carbon exchange is a crucial component for effective pasture management to promote sustainable pastureland management practices. We hypothesized that pasturelands, when intensively managed, would exhibit a small but important CO2 cumulative uptake year-round. We used the Eddy covariance method to measure the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and productivity of an intensively managed pastureland at Kentucky State University Research and Demonstration station from 2015 to 2020. The study has two objectives: to quantify interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange, and examine the controlling environmental factors, in particular temperature, sunlight, and precipitation of NEE. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations followed typical patterns of carbon uptake and release. Overall, the pasture site consistently was carbon sink except for 2016, in part due to a warmer winter season than usual, sequestering 1394 gCm−2 over the study period. Precipitation and temperature were critical environmental factors underpinning seasonal CO2 uptake and release. Of critical importance was the net carbon uptake during the non-growing season.

Volatility and jump with intraday periodicity and truncated power variation in Chinese yuan-US dollar exchange rates

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the discrete jump volatility of the Chinese yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns using high-frequency five-minute returns from June 2012 to April 2021. Using periodicity filters of volatility, we conduct volatility jump tests for finite and infinite exchange rate jumps, and the truncated power variation does not exhibit upward or downward jumps. We use combined intraday jump statistics with local robust variance. All empirical results show that if we do not include periodicity filters of volatility, such as MAD and ShortH, the five-minute returns of the Chinese yuan/US dollar exchange rates have much lower intraday jump probabilities. Thus, the volatility and jumps of the Chinese yuan/US dollar ratio will be underestimated if we do not consider the periodicity filters of the volatility in the 2010s. We need to include periodicity filters of volatility and jumps to reduce forecast errors in future Chinese Yuan/US dollar exchange rates so that we obtain a better measure of current volatility and generate better hedging strategies for future volatility.

Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Inflasi, Dan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Asing Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia Periode 2016-2020

This study aims to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables, namely economic growth, inflation and foreign exchange rates on the profitability of Islamic banks in Indonesia. The data sources for macroeconomic variables in this study are secondary data published by BPS and SEKI, while the profitability data for 14 Islamic banks in Indonesia are taken from the OJK Sharia Banking Statistics. The research method used in this study is a quantitative method with panel data analysis. The results showed that there was no significant effect of macroeconomic variables, namely economic growth, inflation and exchange rate variables on the profitability of Islamic banks partially, but simultaneously significant.

ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO DI INDONESIA 2015 – 2019

Cocoa is one of the plantation commodities that has an important role in economic activities in Indonesia. Cocoa is also one of Indonesia's export commodities which is quite important as a foreign exchange earner besides oil and gas. Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer and exporter after Ghana and Ivory Coast. The development of cocoa exports in 2015-2019 has a fairly volatile pattern. In 2015 the total export volume of cocoa was 105.15 thousand tons and in 2017 it increased by 270.17 thousand tons. The results of this study indicate that partially the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. The price variable has a positive and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. Simultaneously the US Dollar exchange rate, price and amount of cocoa production have a significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. This analysis shows that the variable that has the dominant influence on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia from 2015-2019 is the price variable.

Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Performance of Mutual Funds: Evidence from Bangladesh Financial Market

Using multiple regression analysis in this research paper, this is examined that these macroeconomic variables (Money Supply-M2, Inflation Rates and Exchange Rates) have significant relationships with the performance of mutual funds (represented by monthly return based on NAV) in Bangladesh. According to this project paper, money supply M2 has negative relationship with the performance of mutual funds in the financial market of Bangladesh. Because, higher level of money supply in the market weaken the monetary value of taka which makes the market more vulnerable. And this vulnerable market leads a negative impact on the whole financial market as well as mutual fund industry. Interest rates have positive relationship with the performance of mutual funds in the financial market of Bangladesh because higher level of interest rate increases the tendency of savings in the ultimate consumers and they try to consume less and save more. This savings is going to be invested in the capital market as well as in mutual fund industry which leads the market to a better position for the fund managers. Inflation rates have negative relationship with the performance of mutual funds in the financial market of Bangladesh as the higher level of inflation make the price of commodities higher and the monetary price of the taka lower. This tendency of making the less value of money, most of the investors want to withdraw their investment from the market which leads a downturn in the financial market as well as in the mutual fund industry. At the end, exchange rates have positive relationship with the performance of mutual funds as the higher level of exchange rate makes the Bangladeshi taka more powerful in the international market.

Control of supercritical CO2 Brayton cycle for fast and efficient load variation processes

The supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO2) cycle is considered a promising power conversion system due to its high efficiency and flexibility. This work presents a dynamic model of a 600 MWe S-CO2 recompression Brayton cycle (RBC) and validates it at both component and system levels. To ensure the safety and stability of the S-CO2 RBC during wide-load operation, some necessary control strategies are designed, including minimum pressure and temperature control, split ratio control, turbine inlet temperature control, and anti-surge control. Moreover, an innovative valve-inventory joint control method is proposed, coupled with an improved inventory tank layout, to achieve both fast and efficient load variation processes. Compared to the control strategy before improvement, the ramp-up and ramp-down rates are significantly increased by 2.65 and 2.24 times, respectively. In addition, the values of key parameters suitable for wide-load operation of the S-CO2 RBC are determined to maximize the cycle efficiency under off-design conditions. The results show that the split ratio should be dynamically adjusted to determine the optimal value that varies with the load, which can improve the cycle efficiency by a maximum of 1.13 %. Finally, the dynamic performance of the S-CO2 RBC is studied during load ramp changes and real-time microgrid load, and the variations in heat exchange, pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate of key components are revealed. Comparative analysis with previous literature demonstrates that the proposed control method provides a wider load regulation range, an increase of 7.78 % in cycle efficiency, and a reduced maximum generation frequency deviation of 0.696 Hz. There is no overpressure or compressor surge risk, and the maximum temperature change rate is only 1.3 ℃·min−1.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on the Existence of Inflation in Indonesia Using the Vector Error Correction Model Approach

This research investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables, namely money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, and the joint stock index, on inflation in Indonesia. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dynamic model approach, the study reveals a long-term relationship among each variable (Inflation Rate, Jakarta Composite Index, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Money Supply). Granger Causality Test results indicate a unidirectional relationship of interest rate and money supply variables to inflation, interest rate to Jakarta Composite Index, and money supply to the exchange rate. Conversely, there is a bidirectional relationship between exchange rate and inflation variables. In the short term, Interest Rate significantly and positively influences inflation, whereas, in the long term, it exhibits a negative and insignificant effect. Money supply, in the long run, significantly and positively affects the inflation rate. This study stands out in the macroeconomic literature due to its distinctive choice of variables and the dynamic model employed

Demand for Money in the United States: Stability and Forward-Looking Tests

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2.

ESTIMATING EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES; SIERRA LEONE EXPERIENCE

<p>The study conducts an investigation that seeks to evaluate the nature of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices in Sierra Leone. As a small, open economy, the country is susceptible to exogenous shocks. The exchange rate acts as a medium through which external shocks get transmitted to the real economy. Therefore, the general objective of the study is to assess the effect of the fluctuation of the exchange rate on domestic prices in Sierra Leone. More specifically, it sought to determine which type of exchange rate pass-through exists for Sierra Leone, using annual time series data between 1992 and 2022. The empirical analysis was based on a VECM model. The coefficient of the exchange rate (.5365) which is also significant at the 5% level of significance (p-value = 0.002), indicates that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete in Sierra Leone. This means that a 1-unit depreciation of the Leone (increase in nominal exchange rate), leads to an increase in Sierra Leone consumer price by .5365 units or approximately 53.65%. This is an indication of indirect pass-through, where importers increase the price of imported goods to maintain their markup in the event of a nominal exchange rate depreciation. The recommendation to the finding is that since it was revealed that Sierra Leone has relatively high exchange rate shocks means that monetary authorities in Sierra Leone should pay more attention to the effects of EXR fluctuation on consumer prices. Measures such as the promotion of local production to substitute imported goods are key to addressing the effects of exchange rate variations.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL: </strong>F31, E31, C32, O24<strong></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/lit/0758/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Analisis Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar, dan Suku Bunga pada Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia Periode 2015 - 2022

The aim of this research is to determine the influence of World Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates on the Inflation Rate in Indonesia for the 2015 – 2022 Period. The type of research is quantitative research. The sampling technique was total sampling, namely 96 data/samples with SPSS software version 26.0. Based on the research results, it shows that the world oil price and interest rate variable has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia, but the exchange rate variable has no significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia. The research results also show that the variables of world oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Nigerian-Naira Exchange Rate Fluctuations (1981-2021)

This study majorly considered establishing the relationship that existed among the Nigerian-Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate and External Reserve, Inflation Rate, GDP Growth, Public Debt, Unemployment Rate and Exports for the period, (1981-2021). Also, the macroeconomic variables that influenced the NGN exchange rate fluctuations were determined. Multiple linear regression and correlation analyses were employed in this study. Results showed that the significant variables that influenced the NGN exchange rate fluctuations were External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate; and each of them had very strong significant positive relationships with NGN exchange rate fluctuations. It was equally revealed that about 97% of the total variations in the NGN exchange rate fluctuations, from 1981 to 2021, were accounted for by variations in External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate; while about 3% of the total variations in the NGN exchange rate could be attributed to other macroeconomic factors outside the ones used in this study. It was concluded that External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate were the most macroeconomic factors that influenced the Nigerian-Naira exchange rate fluctuations from 1981 to 2021.

Real exchange rates and manufacturing exports in emerging economies: the role of sectoral heterogeneity and product complexity

The empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and export performance in emerging economies is inconclusive. In this paper, we present evidence that one reason for this inconclusiveness is the use of real exchange rate (RER) measures that do not consider the heterogeneity between economic sectors. To this end, we calculate a unique sectoral bilateral RER index (SBRER) for 12 Latin American economies, which considers the variation of producer price differentials and bilateral nominal exchange rates across 21 manufacturing sectors and 38 trade partners between 2001–2018, and to estimate the effect of SBRER movements on manufacturing exports. The regression results show that the SBRER is a significant determinant of aggregate manufacturing exports, whereas the bilateral RER is not significant. Moreover, sectoral export elasticities indicate that mainly sectors with low levels of product complexity and, to a lesser extent, those of medium complexity are affected by RER movements. These findings show that it is important to consider sectoral heterogeneity when estimating RER export elasticities from a macroeconomic perspective.

The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Investment in Nigeria

This study investigated the relative effectiveness of monetary policy on investment in Nigeria for the period 1990Q1 to 2019Q4 using SVAR model. The study found out that monetary policy is effective for influencing investment in Nigeria in short run, medium and long run. Specifically, the study found out that interest rate, bank credit and exchange rate are the most ef fective variables for influencing investment when compared with other variables (money supply, inflation and exchange rate) within the model of the study. The study therefore recommend that central bank should peg monetary policy rate at a threshold suitable to increase money supply and credit facilitation by commercial banks in order to stimulate investment in the Nigeria economy.

The sustainability of production and the US Dollar exchange rate influence Indonesian Cocoa and Pepper exports and their competitiveness

This research aims to determine the sustainability of production factors and the US dollar exchange rate on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021, as well as their competitiveness with Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan during the period of 2017-2021. The data analysis methods used were Multiple Linear Regression, RAC, and EPD. The research results indicate that production sustainability has a significant effect on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period, while the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a significant effect on cocoa exports but an insignificant effect on pepper exports. The competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa for the 2017-2021 period, using the RCA method, is strong in Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan but weak in Thailand and Vietnam. However, with the EPD method, exports to Singapore and Vietnam are in the Raising Star position, to Thailand and Japan in the Falling Star position, and to Malaysia in the Lost Opportunity position. With the RCA method for the 2017-2021 period, Indonesia’s pepper competitiveness is weak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan, but with the EPD method, it is Raising Star in Malaysia and Vietnam, Falling Star in Thailand and Japan, and Lost Opportunity in Singapore.

Analyzing the Effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on East Africa’s Foreign Exchange Ratevolatility

Oil is one of the major sources of energy in the world today, therefore many sectors of the economy are directly or indirectly dependent on oil as a source of energy. These has made oil price fluctuation to one of the most sort after macroeconomic variable due to its potential effects on the global economy. The primary objective of this paper was to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on foreign exchange rate of the three East African countries using SVAR analysis for the period from 1990 to 2022. Our empirical evidence confirmed that the increase in the price of crude oil in leads to a positive change in foreign exchange to the Dollar, the SVAR estimation confirmed positive significant effect of oil price fluctuation on foreign exchange trends, the results of the IRF pointed out oil price fluctuation positively affect the East Africa’s foreign exchange performance and finally the FEVD of oil price fluctuation on foreign exchange reflected that there exist indirect effects of oil price fluctuation on foreign exchange as well as foreign exchange influencing oil price after the second period. Based on these findings we therefore conclude that crude oil price fluctuations contribute significantly to the foreign exchange variability in the East African countries and hence affecting other sectors of the economy inversely.It is on this ground that we recommend adoption of policies that will reduce this effect on this countries, to start with to reduce the burden the countries should look for alternative locally available source of power that include adoption of Bi-diesel, compressed methane that can be source from sugar cane give the un tapped potential of sugar can in the three countries. In addition, the countries can consider price hedging of oil purchases where the countries enter into contract with their oil supplies for a constant crude oil price over the contract period.

Temporal variability of air-water gas exchange of carbon dioxide in clam and fish aquaculture ponds

The growing trend of land-based aquaculture has heightened the significance of comprehensively assessing air-water carbon dioxide (CO2) gas exchange in these inland waters, given their potential impact on carbon neutral strategies. However, temporal variations of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and CO2 flux in clam and fish aquaculture ponds were barely investigated. We assessed the water surface pCO2 in one to five months intervals by deploying a lab-made buoy in three clam ponds and three fishponds located in tropical and subtropical climates. Measurements were conducted over a 24 h period each time, spanning from April 2021 to June 2022, covering the stocking, middle, and harvesting stages of the culture cycle. Diurnal pCO2 variations were dominantly controlled by biologically driven changes in dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity (~97 %), while temperature and salinity effects were minor (~3 %). Clam ponds acted as a sink of atmospheric CO2 during stocking stages and transitioned to a source during middle to harvesting stages. In contrast, fishponds acted as a source of atmospheric CO2 throughout culture cycles and CO2 flux strengthened when reaching harvesting stages. Overall, clam ponds acted as a weak sink for atmospheric CO2 (−2.8 ± 17.3 mmol m−2 d−1), whereas fishponds acted as a source (16.8 ± 21.7 mmol m−2 d−1). CO2 emission was stronger during daytime coinciding with higher windspeeds compared to nighttime in fishponds. We suggest incorporating high temporal resolution measurements to account for diurnal and culture-stage variations, enabling more accurate estimates of air-water CO2 flux in aquaculture ponds. Moreover, the findings of this study highlight the importance of feeding, aeration, and biological activities (photosynthesis, remineralization, and calcification) in controlling the air-water CO2 flux in aquaculture ponds and such information can be used in implementing better strategies to achieve carbon neutral goals.

Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia Dan Makroekonomi Terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2018-2022

Abstract
 This study aims to determine the effect of world oil prices and macroeconomics on the movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2018-2022 PERIOD. By using the multiple linear regression analysis method, it can be seen how the relationship between world oil and macroeconomic variables as independent variables with the composite stock price index variable as the dependent variable. The data used in this study is monthly data for all variables in the 2018-2022 period. Then from the research results it was found that the world oil price variable and the inflation variable had a positive and significant effect on the JCI. The exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the JCI. While the interest rate variable has no effect on the JCI variable partially..