Extreme Variability Research Articles

Impacts of Rainfall Variability on Streamflow in the Drylands of Northern Kenya: Assessing Water Availability under a Changing Climate

Water availability is a function of climatic and land surface conditions, which determine the amount and distribution of atmospheric water as it reaches the surface. This largely depends on rainfall, whose variability affects water, food and livelihood security. This paper sought to quantify the effects of rainfall variability on water availability in an effort to support effective water resources management. Coefficient of Variation (CV), Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and Mann-Kendall trend test approaches were used to assess variability and trends, while correlation and regression analysis were employed to determine effects of rainfall variability on streamflow. A hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was used to simulate streamflow with a view to assessing water availability under two climate change scenarios; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Results show that the area experiences moderate to extreme rainfall variability, as indicated by CV and SAI values that ranged from 20 to 99% and -2.5 to +3 respectively, resulting in moderate to extreme floods and droughts that often disrupt livelihoods. Current streamflow simulations (1981 – 2020) indicated increasing trends. Near and far future streamflow volumes will decrease by 15% during the April-May-June season while during October-November-December season they will increase by 13%, compared to the present. Increasing trends of rainfall and streamflow indicate that the area has opportunities for rainwater harvesting while the high variability indicates a need for early warning systems to cushion communities from climatic shocks evidenced by the impacts of climate extremes experienced in the area.

Glucose transporter-1 deficiency syndrome with extreme phenotypic variability in a five-generation family carrying a novel SLC2A1 variant.

Glucose transporter-1 (GLUT1) deficiency syndrome (GLUT1-DS) is a metabolic disorder due to reduced expression of GLUT1, a glucose transporter of the central nervous system. GLUT1-DS is caused by heterozygous SLC2A1 variants that mostly arise de novo. Here, we report a large family with heterogeneous phenotypes related to a novel SLC2A1 variant. We present clinical and genetic features of a five-generation family with GLUT1-DS. The 14 (nine living) affected members had heterogeneous phenotypes, including seizures (11/14), behavioral disturbances (5/14), mild intellectual disability (3/14), and/or gait disabilities (2/14). Brain magnetic resonance imaging revealed hippocampal sclerosis in the 8-year-old proband, who also had drug-responsive absences associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. His 52-year-old father, who had focal epilepsy since childhood, developed paraparesis related to a reversible myelitis associated with hypoglycorrhachia. Molecular study detected a novel heterozygous missense variant (c.446C>T) in exon 4 of SLC2A1 (NM: 006516.2) that cosegregated with the illness. This variant causes an amino acid replacement (p.Pro149Leu) at the fourth transmembrane segment of GLUT1, an important domain located at its catalytic core. Our study illustrates the extremely heterogenous phenotypes in familial GLUT1-DS, ranging from milder classic phenotypes to more subtle neurological disorder including paraparesis. This novel SLC2A1 variant (c.446C>T) provides new insight into the pathophysiology of GLUT1-DS.

Drivers, changes, and impacts of hydrological extremes in India: A review

AbstractThe frequency of hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) has increased in recent years in India. A dense population, intensive agriculture, and rapidly developing physical infrastructure put India under the risk of hydrological extremes. However, a comprehensive overview of the drivers, changes, and impacts associated with hydrological extremes in India has been lacking. We examine the key processes and the role of climate and human interventions on hydrological extremes in India. We discuss the observed and projected changes in hydrological extremes along with their impacts. While the Indian summer monsoon is the primary driver of the hydrological extremes in India, human interventions (irrigation, reservoir storage, and groundwater pumping) play a crucial role in the changes and variability of hydrological extremes. The relative role of climate change and direct human interventions on changing the intensity and impacts of hydrological extremes need to be considered for future adaptation planning under climate change. The observed increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes will continue in the future with compound and cascading impacts due to the warming climate. We need to strengthen the observational network, improve hydrological modeling, reduce climate uncertainty, and develop robust early warning systems to adapt and mitigate hydrological extremes in India.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change

Assessment of long-term spatio-temporal variability of hot extremes and associated physical mechanism over India

Assessment of long-term spatio-temporal variability of hot extremes and associated physical mechanism over India

Genome-Wide Identification, Molecular Characterization, and Expression Analysis of the HSP70 and HSP90 Gene Families in Thamnaconus septentrionalis.

Heat shock proteins (HSPs) are a class of highly conserved proteins that play an important role in biological responses to various environmental stresses. The mariculture of Thamnaconus septentrionalis, a burgeoning aquaculture species in China, frequently encounters stressors such as extreme temperatures, salinity variations, and elevated ammonia levels. However, systematic identification and analysis of the HSP70 and HSP90 gene families in T. septentrionalis remain unexplored. This study conducted the first genome-wide identification of 12 HSP70 and 4 HSP90 genes in T. septentrionalis, followed by a comprehensive analysis including phylogenetics, gene structure, conserved domains, chromosomal localization, and expression profiling. Expression analysis from RNA-seq data across various tissues and developmental stages revealed predominant expression in muscle, spleen, and liver, with the highest expression found during the tailbud stage, followed by the gastrula, neurula, and juvenile stages. Under abiotic stress, most HSP70 and HSP90 genes were upregulated in response to high temperature, high salinity, and low salinity, notably hspa5 during thermal stress, hspa14 in high salinity, and hsp90ab1 under low salinity conditions. Ammonia stress led to a predominance of downregulated HSP genes in the liver, particularly hspa2, while upregulation was observed in the gills, especially for hsp90b1. Quantitative real-time PCR analysis corroborated the expression levels under environmental stresses, validating their involvement in stress responses. This investigation provides insights into the molecular mechanisms of HSP70 and HSP90 in T. septentrionalis under stress, offering valuable information for future functional studies of HSPs in teleost evolution, optimizing aquaculture techniques, and developing stress-resistant strains.

Landscape evolution in the southern Transantarctic Mountains during the early Miocene (c. 20–17 Ma) and evidence for a highly dynamic East Antarctic Ice Sheet margin from the southernmost volcanoes in the world (87°S)

Observations of ice sheet stability in Antarctica in the past, during significantly warmer climatic periods than today, are hampered by a paucity of continental outcrops but they are essential if we are to test and more fully understand established concepts of ice sheet growth and decay and robustly predict Earth's future during rapid global warming. In this paper we use the unique terrestrial record preserved in the three most southerly volcanoes on Earth to reconstruct Antarctica's environmental landscape in the Transantarctic Mountains for three time slices (at 20.1, 19.31 and c. 17 Ma). We demonstrate that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet margin was highly dynamic and fluctuated greatly during the Early Miocene. The period included a much-reduced ice cover that left the southern Transantarctic Mountains virtually ice-free, although a few tidewater glaciers reached the shores of the Early Miocene Ross Sea (Sheridan Bluff; 20.1 Ma); and a substantially thicker, much more voluminous ice mass (represented by volcanism at Mount Early; 19.31 Ma). An intermediate stage of ice retreat is also indicated (at c. 17 Ma), when the East Antarctic Ice Sheet had again withdrawn to behind the Transantarctic Mountains. It is represented by a subglacial volcanic centre identified remotely by aerogeophysics and sampled only as glacial erratics. The associated ice cover at c. 17 Ma had a relatively low surface elevation but it was confluent with thin ice domes that covered the adjacent mountains. Although the ice margin probably did not extend down to the Ross Sea coast, several glaciers fed icebergs into the Ross Sea. The large ice sheet indicated by the Mount Early volcanic centre is the only known physical record of a significant glacial event that took place at 19.31 ± 0.32 Ma (‘Mount Early glacial’). The records examined at the other two volcanic sites correspond to eruptions during periods of substantially reduced ice in Antarctica, of which that at 20.1 ± 0.4 Ma is the most remarkable (‘Sheridan Bluff interglacial’). The causes of the extreme variations in ice sheet thickness and extent indicated are uncertain but they occurred during a period of rapidly fluctuating atmospheric CO2 compositions. Although Milankovitch astronomical forcing probably also played a significant part, the results suggest that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was highly susceptible to comparatively slight changes in CO2 during the warm Early Miocene.

Lower extremity inter-joint coupling angles and variability during gait in pediatric hypermobility spectrum disorder

Complex musculoskeletal complications in children with hypermobility spectrum disorder (HSD) include pain, proprioception deficits, and joint instability, which may result in movement dysfunction during walking. However, no studies have explored the inter-joint coordination deficits in children with HSD. The purpose of this study was to determine the lower extremity inter-joint coupling angles, patterns, and variability during walking in children with HSD compared to children without HSD (non-HSD). Ankle, knee, and hip kinematics during the stance phase of walking in 18 children with HSD and 18 children without HSD were measured using three-dimensional motion analysis. Coupling angles, patterns, and variability of hip-knee, hip-ankle, and knee-ankle were quantified in the sagittal, frontal, and transverse planes using vector coding techniques. Statistical modeling of coupling angles on sine and cosine scales and bootstrapped standard errors were used to compare coupling angles between HSD and non-HSD groups. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance and statistical non-parametric mapping two-sample t-tests were used to compare the coupling patterns and variability between HSD and non-HSD groups, respectively. Our results indicated that coupling angles, patterns, and variability were not significantly different between the groups. These findings suggest that lower extremity inter-joint coordination and its variability during walking might not be a promising area for further research or intervention in children with HSD. Further research could use other biomechanical methods to investigate coordination deficits in pediatric patients with HSD, and how aging and disease progression are associated with coordination deficits in individuals with HSD.

How to quantify developmental synchrony in malaria parasites

Malaria infections represent an iconic example of developmental synchrony, where periodic fevers can result when the population of parasites develops synchronously within host red blood cells. The level of synchrony appears to vary across individual hosts and across parasite species and strains, variation that—once quantified—can illuminate the ecological and evolutionary drivers of synchrony. Yet current approaches for quantifying synchrony in parasites are either biased by population dynamics or unsuitable when population growth rates vary through time, features ubiquitous to parasite populations in vitro and in vivo. Here we develop an approach to estimate synchrony that accounts for population dynamics, including changing population growth rates, and validate it with simulated time series data encompassing a range of synchrony levels in two different host-parasite systems: malaria infections of mice and human malaria parasites in vitro. This new method accurately quantifies developmental synchrony from per capita growth rates using obtainable abundance data even with realistic sampling noise, without the need to sort parasites into developmental stages. Our approach enables variability in developmental schedules to be disentangled from even extreme variation in population dynamics, providing a comparative metric of developmental synchrony.

Analysis of extreme precipitation variation characteristics in mountain grasslands of arid and semi-arid regions in China

Introduction: With global warming, the disaster losses caused by extreme precipitation events are increasing. The poor natural conditions and climate change make the arid and semi-arid mountainous grassland area a sensitive region of climate change. The study on the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in this region is helpful to improve the ability of climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction in grassland.Methods: Based on the daily precipitation data of four meteorological monitoring stations in the Yinshanbeilu from 1970 to 2020, the trend analysis, M-K test and wavelet analysis were used to select seven typical extreme precipitation indicators to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation.Results and Discussion: The results showed that the precipitation in the Yinshanbeilu increased in the past 51a, and the number of heavy rain days increased significantly. The significance test of CDD and CWD showed that the number of continuous dry days and continuous wet days decreased abruptly. The spatial analysis showed that the high value areas of R95p, R95d and PRCRTOT were all located in Siziwang Banner, and it could be concluded that the extreme precipitation risk was the highest in Siziwang Banner, while the low value areas of SDII, Rx1day, R95p and PRCRTOT were all located in Sonid Right Banner, which could be inferred that the Sonid Right Banner was relatively dry. The first main cycle of the seven indexes of extreme precipitation almost runs through the whole time series, and the starting point of the minimum main cycle changes inconsistent. In addition to the number of consecutive dry days, the other indices have a good correlation with annual precipitation, flood season and monthly precipitation from June to September, and July is the peak period of extreme precipitation events.

Impacts of extreme precipitation on water conservation in Beijiang River Basin, China

Water conservation, which has been regarded as one of the most crucial ecosystem service functions of river basins, is a key factor for sustainable development, that has garnered widespread attention in the context of climate change. However, little attention has been paid to daily water conservation and its response to extreme precipitation events. In this study, we selected the Beijiang River Basin (BJRB) as the study area, which is an important ecological barrier for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA), based on the distributed hydrological model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Processes in Large River basin) and water balance equation, the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and four daily water conservation indicators (maximum 1 day, maximum 3 day, maximum 5 day, maximum 7 day water conservation) in the BJRB from 1965 to 2009 were analysed, and the responses of these indicators to extreme precipitation were investigated. The results reveal that (1) the amount (RX1day, RX3day, RX5day, RX7day, R95p, and R99p), intensity (SDII), and frequency (R50mm) of extreme precipitation increased in the BJRB during 1965–2009, with SDII undergoing a significant increase. (2) The four water conservation indicators were positive, indicating that the watershed reduced peak flow during the extreme precipitation period by accumulating precipitation. The rate of increase of the four water conservation indicators were lower than that of extreme precipitation indices, there will be more extreme precipitation converted into surface runoff, thereby increasing the risk of flooding. The four indicators increased in the southern and northern regions of the BJRB, while decreased in the central region during 1965–2009. (3) The four indicators were generally positively correlated with most of the extreme precipitation indices in the northern BJRB, especially RX1day, RX3day, RX5day, RX7day, R99p, and R50mm. The results provide a scientific reference for water conservation adaptation to extreme precipitation variations, protection of the ecological environment, and the prevention and reduction of disasters in the region.

3D printing with a 3D printed digital material filament for programming functional gradients

Additive manufacturing, or 3D printing attracts growing attention as a promising method for creating functionally graded materials. Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is widely available, but due to its simple process, creating spatial gradation of diverse properties using FDM is challenging. Here, we present a 3D printed digital material filament that is structured towards 3D printing of functional gradients, utilizing only a readily available FDM printer and filaments. The DM filament consists of multiple base materials combined with specific concentrations and distributions, which are FDM printed. When the DM filament is supplied to the same printer, its constituent materials are homogeneously blended during extrusion, resulting in the desired properties in the final structure. This enables spatial programming of material properties in extreme variations, including mechanical strength, electrical conductivity, and color, which are otherwise impossible to achieve with traditional FDMs. Our approach can be readily adopted to any standard FDM printer, enabling low-cost production of functional gradients.

Changes in extreme precipitation indices across Algeria climate zones

AbstractExtreme precipitation events can have a significant impact on the environment, agriculture, economy and safety, making close monitoring of their short‐ and long‐term trends essential for the development of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this study, we analysed 16 in situ observation datasets from four different climate zones in Algeria, spanning from 1969 to 2021. The trend analysis was conducted using the original Mann–Kendall test and seven modified tests to eliminate the effects of short‐term persistence. Our findings reveal a significant increasing trend of extreme precipitation variability for most stations in the Warm Mediterranean climate zone, except for the Consecutive dry days index, which showed a negative trend for the same zone, while stations in the Cold/Warm semi‐arid climate and Cold desert climate (Bwk) zones showed a decreasing trend. Additionally, all index series with significant long‐term trends were affected by a significant shift in their means, which was confirmed by both the Lombard and Pettitt tests. However, when we used the modified MPT and the test eliminating the effects of long‐term persistence, the significance of the shifts and the trend decreased. Our results suggest that while extreme precipitation events have been increasing in some parts of Algeria; the trend may not be statistically significant in the long‐run, indicating the necessity of revisiting and refreshing the findings of previous studies for a more current perspective.

Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain

Reanalysis-driven regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) Version 2.0 are assessed for capturing precipitation extreme indices. Seven configurations of the WRF model driven by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for Australia from 1979 to 2020 at 20 km resolution are evaluated. We assess the spatiotemporal patterns of six selected Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) precipitation extremes by comparing regional climate model (RCM) simulations against gridded observations. The RCMs evaluated have varying levels of accuracy in simulating precipitation extremes. While they capture climatology and coefficient of variation of precipitation extremes relatively well, temporal correlation and trend reproduction present challenges. Some RCMs perform more effectively for specific extreme indices, while others encounter challenges in accurately replicating them. No single RCM excels in all aspects, highlighting the need to consider specific strengths when selecting RCMs for global climate model (GCM) driven simulations.

The evolution of femoral morphology in giant non-avian theropod dinosaurs.

Theropods are obligate bipedal dinosaurs that appeared 230 million years ago and are still extant as birds. Their history is characterized by extreme variations in body mass, with gigantism evolving convergently between many lineages. However, no quantification of hindlimb functional morphology has shown if these body mass increases led to similar specializations between distinct lineages. Here we studied femoral shape variation across 41 species of theropods (n= 68 specimens) using a high-density 3D geometric morphometric approach. We demonstrated that the heaviest theropods evolved wider epiphyses and a more distally located fourth trochanter, as previously demonstrated in early archosaurs, along with an upturned femoral head and a mediodistal crest that extended proximally along the shaft. Phylogenetically informed analyses highlighted that these traits evolved convergently within six major theropod lineages, regardless of their maximum body mass. Conversely, the most gracile femora were distinct from the rest of the dataset, which we interpret as a femoral specialization to "miniaturization" evolving close to Avialae (bird lineage). Our results support a gradual evolution of known "avian" features, such as the fusion between lesser and greater trochanters and a reduction of the epiphyses' offset, independently from body mass variations, which may relate to a more "avian" type of locomotion (more knee-than hip-driven). The distinction between body mass variations and a more "avian" locomotion is represented by a decoupling in the mediodistal crest morphology, whose biomechanical nature should be studied to better understand the importance of its functional role in gigantism, miniaturization and higher parasagittal abilities.

Racial and ethnic minorities disproportionately exposed to extreme daily temperature variation in the United States.

In the history of Homo sapiens, well-populated habitats have featured relatively stable temperatures with generally small daily variations. As the global population is increasingly residing in highly disparate climates, a burgeoning literature has documented the adverse health effects of single-day and day-to-day variation in temperature, raising questions of inequality in exposure to this environmental health risk. Yet, we continue to lack understanding of inequality in exposure to daily temperature variation (DTV) in the highly unequal United States. Using nighttime and daytime land surface temperature data between 2000 and 2017, this study analyzes population exposure to long-term DTV by race and ethnicity, income, and age for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The analysis is based on population-weighted exposure at the census-tract level. We find that, on average, non-White (especially Black and Hispanic) and low-income Americans are exposed disproportionately to larger DTV. Race-based inequalities in exposure to DTV are larger than income-based disparities, with inequalities heightened in the summer months. In May, for example, the DTV difference by race and ethnicity of 51 states is between 0.20 and 3.01 °C (up to 21.0%). We find that younger populations are, on average, exposed to larger DTV, though the difference is marginal.

The Deep Space Radiation Probe: Development of a first lunar science payload for space environment studies and capacity building

Regions outside of Low Earth Orbit (LEO, altitudes above approximately 1000 km) are classified as “deep space”, including Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), geostationary orbit (GEO), as well as cislunar and lunar space. The deep space environment poses many challenges for human and robotic exploration, including stronger ionizing radiation fluxes, more extreme temperature variations, as well as limited data downlink volume. With the growth of the rideshare and hosted payload model aboard government and commercial lunar missions, developing the capacity to design and implement payloads and other space avionics for this environment is of increased importance this decade. Utilizing one of the growing number of rideshare opportunities offered by commercial lunar mission providers, National Central University (NCU) has been working on the rapid development of Taiwan’s first scientific payload for lunar lander use, with launch aboard the HAKUTO-R Mission 2 (M2) lander from ispace, inc. scheduled not earlier than Q4 2024. This Deep Space Radiation Probe (DSRP) will provide measurements of radiation dose, dose rate, and single event upset (SEU) rate during the Earth-Moon transit, in lunar orbit, as well as on the lunar surface. DSRP utilizes elements of the on-board computer (OBC) developed and flight qualified aboard the NCU-developed IDEASSat 3U CubeSat mission in 2021, and was developed by a student team, in consultation with experienced engineers from the lunar lander team. In this paper, we will report on the objectives, concept of operation, design, and implementation of the DSRP project. We will also describe the steps taken to facilitate parallel development of the DSRP payload and the HAKUTO-R M2 lander, as well as lessons learned during the design, implementation, and qualification process. The radiation data provided by DSRP will be beneficial for the development of future deep space spacecraft avionics, as well as crewed missions, and will also serve to build the capacity for deep space spacecraft and payload development at NCU.

Application of ATONA Amplifiers to the Measurement of Uranium Isotopic Ratios by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry.

Uranium isotopic composition can provide valuable information about the history and provenance of a nuclear material; therefore, uranium isotopic analyses are frequently made in the nuclear forensics, safeguards, and environmental monitoring communities. These measurements have always presented challenges due to the extreme variability in the relative abundance between the major (235U, 238U) and minor (233U, 234U, 236U) isotopes of uranium. The recently developed ATONA (Atto- to Nano-Amp) amplification system paired with Faraday cup detectors has a large dynamic range and low noise floor making it ideal for measuring uranium isotopic ratios in materials of both natural and anthropogenic origin. A wide variety of certified reference materials were analyzed to investigate the utility of the ATONA amplification system for determining uranium isotopic composition in samples ranging from depleted to highly enriched. The ATONA amplifiers provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement in external reproducibility over 1011 Ω amplifiers when measuring the minor 234U/238U ratio in isotopically natural and depleted samples and when paired with a secondary electron multiplier can measure very low relative abundance uranium isotopes (i.e., 236U).

Water Level Fluctuation Effect on Fish Reproduction Success

Alteration of water levels of the lake/reservoir due to changes in river discharges, upstream abstraction, and drawdown regulation due to hydropower generation has been reported as among the major challenges to fish physiology and ultimately reproduction. Variations in lake/reservoir water levels influence biodiversity and the abundance of lake/reservoir biota. Variations have the greatest impacts in the littoral zones hence, interfering with fish spawning, incubation, and hatching of eggs, as well as the development of larvae, postlarvae, and juveniles. This particular paper reviews the literature available on the effect of the reservoirs/lakes’ water level fluctuations on fish reproduction success using the documentary view method. The literature argues that water level fluctuations have both positive and negative impacts depending on frequency, magnitude, and duration and the species exposed. Extreme fluctuations tend to bring more adverse impacts. It further indicates that extreme and untimely water level fluctuation has direct impacts on the aquatic habitats and ultimately impacts fish assemblage and their populations. Few articles indicate the range of decrease or increase of water level, duration of such events, and effects they have on reservoir/lake ecosystem functions and fish physiology. Nevertheless, quantification of moderate and extreme water level fluctuation and associated effects is lacking. Although water level fluctuation is an important environmental cue for aquatic organisms, literature shows that the reduction of extreme water level variations especially multiannual variations is vital for fish reproduction. Therefore, upstream water use and reservoir operations should take into consideration the effects of water level fluctuations on reservoir structure, biological functions, and ultimate effects on fish reproduction.

Exploring Changing-look Active Galactic Nuclei with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey V: First Year Results

“Changing-look” active galactic nuclei (CL-AGNs) challenge our basic ideas about the physics of accretion flows and circumnuclear gas around supermassive black holes. Using first-year Sloan Digital Sky Survey V (SDSS-V) repeated spectroscopy of nearly 29,000 previously known active galactic nuclei (AGNs), combined with dedicated follow-up spectroscopy, and publicly available optical light curves, we have identified 116 CL-AGNs where (at least) one broad emission line has essentially (dis-)appeared, as well as 88 other extremely variable systems. Our CL-AGN sample, with 107 newly identified cases, is the largest reported to date, and includes ∼0.4% of the AGNs reobserved in first-year SDSS-V operations. Among our CL-AGNs, 67% exhibit dimming while 33% exhibit brightening. Our sample probes extreme AGN spectral variability on months to decades timescales, including some cases of recurring transitions on surprisingly short timescales (≲2 months in the rest frame). We find that CL events are preferentially found in lower-Eddington-ratio (f Edd) systems: Our CL-AGNs have a f Edd distribution that significantly differs from that of a carefully constructed, redshift- and luminosity-matched control sample (Anderson–Darling test yielding p AD ≈ 6 × 10−5; median f Edd ≈ 0.025 versus 0.043). This preference for low f Edd strengthens previous findings of higher CL-AGN incidence at lower f Edd, found in smaller samples. Finally, we show that the broad Mg ii emission line in our CL-AGN sample tends to vary significantly less than the broad Hβ emission line. Our large CL-AGN sample demonstrates the advantages and challenges in using multi-epoch spectroscopy from large surveys to study extreme AGN variability and physics.

Weather-Based Nonlinear Regressions for Digital TV Received Signal Strength Prediction

In this research, the impact of various weather conditions on digital television signals is investigated. Machine learning and nonlinear regression models were used to estimate the strength of the received signal. The received signal strength might vary significantly depending on the weather condition, especially in higher frequency ranges or millimetre wavelengths. Predictive analysis was performed for the radio-relay link Aval Tower-Vršac Hill, which is used for the distribution of television and radio programmes by the public company Broadcasting Technology and Connections in Serbia. The prediction was made using temperature, temperature index, relative humidity, and received signal strength data for the months of June, July, and August in 2022. The best results were obtained using the RandomForest model. Extreme variations in the strength of the received signal can be predicted by using the model mentioned above. More effective management of the broadcasting infrastructure can be done with the ability to predict sudden falls and fluctuations in received signal strength.