USD Billion Research Articles

Estimating the public health benefits with reducing current levels of NO2 and SO2 in Mexico

Introduction Urban air quality represents a major public health burden and is a long-standing concern to Mexican citizens. HIA aims to assess the potential impacts of a proposal and make recommendations to improve the potential health outcomes and minimize inequalities. Several health impact assessments (HIA) have already reported the major public health burden of particulate matter and ozone around the world and few studies have focused on other pollutants such as NO2 and SO2. Current Mexican air quality standards for NO2 and SO2 are obsolete and still above the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines (WHO-AQG) that aims to protect public health. The aim of this study is provide a national estimate of the potential health and monetary benefits of reducing air quality standards (NO2 and SO2) in Mexico. Methods The health benefits of changes in air pollution are expressed as avoidable mortality using 2013 data. We considered two scenarios of reduction of current annual levels for both pollutants: a decrease of the air pollutant levels by a short term fixed amount and adjust according to the WHO-AQG. Total mortality was estimated for NO2 and respiratory diseases for SO2. Monetary benefits were estimated using a Value of a Statistical Life approach. Results Considering a reduction of current levels of NO2 and SO2 as WHO-AQG about 2,059 (1,497-2,629) deaths per year could have been avoided and 4,459 (1,245-6,420) could have been avoided for SO2. Avoidable deaths mean approximately 42 and 92 billions of USD, respectively. Conclusions Our study provided useful information to policy makers and confirms that reducing urban air pollution would result in significant health and monetary gains to Mexico. Our results are particularly relevant now when the current Mexican legislation is being revised for an update in 2016 and 2017. Reanalysis of costs with more accurate methods are still to be performed.

Mutagenesis Associated with DNA-Damage-Stress Response

In this manuscript we aim to take on the controversies in oncology, such as those related to costs and screening guidelines. Are we recently at new turning point with our existing methodology? During the past 30 years of evolution methods of awareness and screening have lead to an emphasis on early diagnoses of cancer and not only cancer. Recent trends and clinical trials show that these goals have not been met. International data demonstrate significant increase in early stage disease, without a proportional decrease in later-stage disease. We need to more differentiate in methodology because cancers are heterogenous with multiple paths, not all of which progress to metastases and death. This broader definition of disease named cancer must include also indolent disease that causes no harm during patients lifetime. Overdiagnosis and overtreatment result in billions of USD of wasted money. Our methodology must be completed with methods which take proper account of the real-life environment.

Antiviral activity and possible mechanism of action of constituents identified in Paeonia lactiflora root toward human rhinoviruses.

Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) are responsible for more than half of all cases of the common cold and cost billions of USD annually in medical visits and missed school and work. An assessment was made of the antiviral activities and mechanisms of action of paeonol (PA) and 1,2,3,4,6-penta-O-galloyl-β-D-glucopyranose (PGG) from Paeonia lactiflora root toward HRV-2 and HRV-4 in MRC5 cells using a tetrazolium method and real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results were compared with those of a reference control ribavirin. Based on 50% inhibitory concentration values, PGG was 13.4 and 18.0 times more active toward HRV-2 (17.89 μM) and HRV-4 (17.33 μM) in MRC5 cells, respectively, than ribavirin. The constituents had relatively high selective index values (3.3–>8.5). The 100 μg/mL PA and 20 μg/mL PGG did not interact with the HRV-4 particles. These constituents inhibited HRV-4 infection only when they were added during the virus inoculation (0 h), the adsorption period of HRVs, but not after 1 h or later. Moreover, the RNA replication levels of HRVs were remarkably reduced in the MRC5 cultures treated with these constituents. These findings suggest that PGG and PA may block or reduce the entry of the viruses into the cells to protect the cells from the virus destruction and abate virus replication, which may play an important role in interfering with expressions of rhinovirus receptors (intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and low-density lipoprotein receptor), inflammatory cytokines (interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor, interferon beta, and IL-1β), and Toll-like receptor, which resulted in diminishing symptoms induced by HRV. Global efforts to reduce the level of synthetic drugs justify further studies on P. lactiflora root-derived materials as potential anti-HRV products or lead molecules for the prevention or treatment of HRV.

Cooperation benefits of Caspian countries in their energy sector development

This paper studies the development possibilities of the energy systems of four Central Asia and Caspian countries. It explores options that improve their domestic energy efficiencies and increase their export of fossil energy commodities. Using the MARKAL-TIMES modelling tool, it represents their energy system with a bottom-up partial economic equilibrium growth model. With the help of scenario analyses, it evaluates the direct economic advantage of improving the domestic energy efficiencies. Furthermore it calculates the direct economic advantage of cooperation. It finds out that a new/different geo-economic attitude brings USD billions of annual economic benefits, particularly if the countries aim to differentiate their export routes, increase the amount of export and contribute to climate change mitigation.

Antiviral activity and possible mode of action of ellagic acid identified in Lagerstroemia speciosa leaves toward human rhinoviruses.

BackgroundHuman rhinoviruses (HRVs) are responsible for more than half of all cases of the common cold and cause billions of USD annually in medical visits and school and work absenteeism. An assessment was made of the cytotoxic and antiviral activities and possible mode of action of the tannin ellagic acid from the leaves of Lagerstroemia speciosa toward HeLa cells and three rhinoviruses, HRV-2, -3, and -4.MethodsThe antiviral property and mechanism of action of ellagic acid were evaluated using a sulforhodamine B assay and real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) with SYBR Green dye. Results were compared with those of the currently used broad-spectrum antiviral agent, ribavirin.ResultsAs judged by 50% inhibitory concentration values, natural ellagic acid was 1.8, 2.3, and 2.2 times more toxic toward HRV-2 (38 μg/mL), HRV-3 (31 μg/mL), and HRV-4 (29 μg/mL) than ribavirin, respectively. The inhibition rate of preincubation with 50 μg/mL ellagic acid was 17%, whereas continuous presence of ellagic acid during infection led to a significant increase in the inhibition (70%). Treatment with 50 μg/mL ellagic acid considerably suppressed HRV-4 infection only when added just after the virus inoculation (0 h) (87% inhibition), but not before -1 h or after 1 h or later (<20% inhibition). These findings suggest that ellagic acid does not interact with the HRV-4 particles and may directly interact with the human cells in the early stage of HRV infections to protect the cells from the virus destruction. Furthermore, RT-PCR analysis revealed that 50 μg/mL ellagic acid strongly inhibited the RNA replication of HRV-4 in HeLa cells, suggesting that ellagic acid inhibits virus replication by targeting on cellular molecules, rather than virus molecules.ConclusionsGlobal efforts to reduce the level of antibiotics justify further studies on L. speciosa leaf-derived materials containing ellagic acid as potential anti-HRV products or a lead molecule for the prevention or treatment of HRV infection.

How People Contribute to Growth-Curves

Research started originally at McKinsey and Company (Thomson, 2006) into success factors of about 1700 Initial Public Offerings (IPO’s). In many of the 70 companies in this research project that made it to a USD billion turnover, personality patterns in the founding teams could be positioned on opposite positions of the Growth-curve.

Preference erosion and market access liberalization: the African dilemma in multilateral negotiations on agriculture

African countries, especially sub-Saharan ones, have conflicting interests in multilateral negotiations on agriculture. On the one hand, their economies may be boosted by the price effect induced by agricultural liberalization. On the other hand, multilateral tariff cuts will result in the erosion of preferential margins. Based on an original methodology, using CGE modeling, detailed tariff calculations and predictive analysis, this paper investigates the potential impact of current multilateral negotiations on the value of preferences for African agriculture. It estimates the preferential value to USD 0.7 billion of welfare and USD 1 billion of exports to the Triad markets. Furthermore, it highlights the “cruel dilemma” African countries face in current negotiations, as they gain from ambitious trade liberalization, despite the large preferential erosion, while they suffer from noticeable trade and welfare losses under conservative scenarios.

Sell-Side Research: Three Modest Reforms

Investment banks (‘sell-side’) spend several USD billion per annum globally creating equity research for investment clients (‘buy-side’). Sell-side firms, and credit research agencies, have the potential to play a significant and positive role in enhancing the quality of equity market analysis and awareness. In theory, these agencies are a hugely efficient centralised resource, motivated to gather and to share investment relevant information. Being associated with brokerages, sell-side researchers are motivated to be public, if not loud, about their opinions. Sell-side researchers have a large effect on market perceptions about particular stocks. One interpretation of a sell-side brokerage is that it is a research or publicity machine with a brokerage attached. In contrast, the buy-side is motivated to keep information secret. Theoretically, sell-side research contributes to market efficiency by aggregating divergent opinions in price setting. The sell-side provides shared learning about stock price formation that is widely available at low cost. This learning is based upon a statistical framework of quantitative income, cash flow, balance sheet and financial ratio modelling which has grown exponentially in technical sophistication over the past two decades. Tighter rules on parity of disclosure and instant electronic data communication have eliminated the low hanging fruit of old-fashioned insider dealing. Insider benefits exploited a quarter of a century ago are now rare. Managements spin and slant to push or pull analysts in their direction, but announcements, presentations, Q&A, conference calls, and investor ‘one-on-ones’ have developed from sporadic initiatives into standardised Investor Relations (IR).

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES FOR THE COASTAL ZONE OF POLAND

Four accelerated sea level rise scenarios, 30 and 100 cm by the year 2100, and 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030, have been assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast, under two recent programmes completed in 1992 and 1995. Three adaptation strategies, i.e., retreat, limited protection and full protection have been adopted and compared in physical and socio-economic terms. Over 2,200 km2 and 230,000 people are found vulnerable in the most severe case of 100-cm rise by 2100. The total cost of land at loss in that case is estimated at nearly 30 USD billion (plus some 18 USD billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches 6 USD billion. Particular features of vulnerability and adaptation schemes have been examined as well, including specific sites and the effects of not only sea level rise but also other climate change factors, and interactions with other climate change studies in Poland. Planning of coastal zone management facing climate change can be facilitated by the use of a GIS-supported coastal information and analysis system. An example of the application of such a system for a selected Polish coastal site is shown to illustrate the most recent smaller-scale research activities undertaken in the wake of the overall assessment of the vulnerability to climate change for the entire Polish coastal zone.

The international monetary fund in eastern europe: seven years of experience

Almost seven years ago, in January 1990, the IMF approved for Poland its first stabilisation program in Eastern Europe. The Fund's role was to provide financial support to macroeconomic stabilisation in the wake of rapid liberalisation of prices, opening of foreign trade and devaluation of currency. In 1991, as reforms in Eastern Europe unfolded, stabilisation programs for other countries followed. During the nearly seven years since, the IMF has provided billions of USD to countries in the region, and all of the former centrally planned economies except Slovenia have received financial support from the IMF. The Fund's financial assistance never comes with no strings attached. Such assistance must serve not only the immediate purpose of balance of payments support but also the longer-term objective of eliminating the problems causing the recipient country to seek the Fund's assistance.