Abstract
This paper studies the development possibilities of the energy systems of four Central Asia and Caspian countries. It explores options that improve their domestic energy efficiencies and increase their export of fossil energy commodities. Using the MARKAL-TIMES modelling tool, it represents their energy system with a bottom-up partial economic equilibrium growth model. With the help of scenario analyses, it evaluates the direct economic advantage of improving the domestic energy efficiencies. Furthermore it calculates the direct economic advantage of cooperation. It finds out that a new/different geo-economic attitude brings USD billions of annual economic benefits, particularly if the countries aim to differentiate their export routes, increase the amount of export and contribute to climate change mitigation.
Highlights
This analysis of four Central Asian Caspian countries e Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan e and their energy systems assumes that their transition towards a market economy continues and completes by 2030
The use of technicaleconomic equilibrium growth models underlines the importance of policies that achieve two objectives: the energy efficiency of the domestic systems and the maximum cooperation among the four countries
The efficiency of the CAC energy system could increase from 51% in 2009 to 67% in 2030 if optimal investments and development strategies will be implemented
Summary
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan e Central Asian Caspian countries, CAC e are endowed with abundant energy resources. Previous studies (Bilgin [4], The Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) [5], and Babali [6]) focussed on the prospects of alternative energy corridors for the Caspian hydrocarbon resources and the possible room for cooperation from a geostrategic point of view and following a “what-if” approach, without any evaluation of the dynamic domestic energy demands and of the costs for the energy sector development This is the first instance that the Caspian Region energy sector is modelled with detailed representation of both supply and demand sides (bottom-up approach), and with the technological descriptions of the existing mix of plants, demand devices, and industrial chains, in a base year and over 20 years of analysis.
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