US Presidential Campaign Research Articles

Immigration in the 2024 US presidential election campaign: policy stalemate, disinformation, and a call for mass deportation

Immigration has been one of the most contentious and defining issues of the 2024 presidential election, rivaled only by economic policy and national security. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, has largely succeeded in setting the terms of the debate – hammering away at his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, with hyperbolic claims that she supports “open borders” and false accusations that the US is experiencing a wave of violent crime committed by migrants. Trump’s immigration rhetoric relies increasingly on lies, misinformation, and racist stereotypes. But his claim that immigration is “out of control” – and his insistence that firm measures are needed to address it – have become central to the Republican platform, and one of Trump’s most frequently repeated campaign promises is that he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants soon after taking office. Why is immigration such a controversial issue in the US? How have the different administrations dealt with it? Is it an overused issue in this campaign?

An In-Depth Bibliometric Exploration of Research on “Bullshit” Communication

Scholarly interest in unclarifiable unclarity, commonly referred to as bullshit (BS) communication, has been steadily growing, driven by events such as recent US presidential campaigns, the COVID-19 pandemic, the spread of conspiracy theories, and the prevalence of misinformation on social media. However, until now, there has been no comprehensive review of research in this domain. This bibliometric study analyzes 249 documents published from 1971 to 2023, sourced from the Scopus and Web of Science databases. Our primary goal is to map the research landscape on BS communication within organizational contexts. Employing techniques such as co-citation and collaboration network analyses, keyword co-occurrence analysis, and thematic mapping, the study reveals the fundamental social, intellectual, and conceptual structures shaping the knowledge base while highlighting key topics and themes in BS communication research. Beyond identifying these central themes, the study also critically evaluates prior research and offers recommendations for future investigations.

Persuasión musical en spots de Donald Trump. Recursos de yuxtaposición en anuncios comparativos con música de librería

This paper studies the soundtrack of some Donald Trump contrast ads that include resources of musical juxtaposition. Adverts that used pre-existing production music during the 2016 and 2020 US presidential campaigns. The preferred technique is to reduce the number of instruments used to a minimum when talking about the adversary and bringing in full orchestration when speaking of the advertiser. Expressive silence is the most powerful musical device for signposting those words or phrases that, due to the information they transmit, summarise the advertising and campaign message in the ad. The Republican candidate opts for alternating and combining harmonious and textural changes to project himself with a tough profile in the second part of the spot, in contrast with the weakness of the Democrat candidates, as represented in the first, negative part. The application of harmonic changes while maintaining the instruments, rhythm and pace of the music strengthens the narrative cohesion of all the audio-visual components. The methodology utilised in this study can be applied to observe music in the audio-visual field outside the context of political campaigns, and even outside advertising.

Cyber democracy in the digital age: Characterizing hate networks in the 2022 US midterm elections

Social media has become integral to societal discourse and play a role in shaping public engagement, particularly in democratic electoral processes. This paper addresses the pressing issue of hate speech on social media during the 2022 US midterm elections. Unlike previous research, which often relies on limited datasets and classic methodologies, we leverage Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to analyze Twitter data through advanced models of entity recognition, sentiment analysis, and community extraction, having persistence in Knowledge Graphs for consuming the intelligence efficiently. Results indicate that in the US midterm elections 2022, Arizona was the state that provided more content (507,551 tweets) related to a Chief Electoral Official, with 31.58% of them identified in the most aggressive cluster due to its mean attribute values of “attack on commenter” (0.7), “inflammatory” (∼0.3), “attack on author” (∼0.2), and “toxicity” (∼0.2). The name entity recognition model also identified an association between those aggressive tweets and the previous 2020 US Presidential campaign, characterized by attacks on election officials based on conspiracy theories campaigns. Knowledge graphs contributed to understanding the concentration of attacks and connectivity between topics commonly mentioned in hate speech content. Thus, our results offer detailed insights into the actors and dynamics of online harassment in electoral contexts, illuminating the challenges posed by harassment and proposing preventive mechanisms applicable to diverse electoral processes worldwide.

Settle for Biden: The scalar production of a normative presidential candidate on Instagram

Abstract This article performs a multimodal digital discourse analysis to examine how the 2020 social media political campaign called ‘Settle for Biden’ successfully encouraged young Progressives to vote for Joe Biden. In contrast to previous US presidential campaigns that highlight the extraordinary capabilities of their candidates, this campaign utilized the scalar and chronotopic production of normativity to highlight Biden's ‘mediocre’ capabilities. The campaign's focus on ‘settling’ for a mediocre candidate was feasible only in the sociopolitical context of 2020, at a time when Donald Trump's leadership had come to be perceived as chaotic and dangerous. While using humor to make salient the normal nature of Biden, the campaign used semiotic strategies appealing to interconnected unmarked normativities associated with class, age, race, and gender. To draw on Hall (2021), the campaign produces ‘language in the middle’, constructing Biden as neither extraordinary nor reprehensible yet preferable to the abnormality of his competitor. (Normativity, scales, chronotopes, multimodality, intertextuality, politics, social media)*

Emotional showdown on social media: analyzing user reactions to the 2016 US presidential campaign

Purpose Social media platforms are highly visible platforms, so politicians try to maximize their benefits from their use, especially during election campaigns. On the other side, people express their views and sentiments toward politicians and political issues on social media, thus enabling them to observe their online political behavior. Therefore, this study aims to investigate user reactions on social media during the 2016 US presidential campaign to decide which candidate invoked stronger emotions on social media. Design/methodology/approach For testing the proposed hypotheses regarding emotional reactions to social media content during the 2016 presidential campaign, regression analysis was used to analyze a data set that consists of Trump’s 996 posts and Clinton’s 1,253 posts on Facebook. The proposed regression models are based on viral (likes, shares, comments) and emotional Facebook reactions (Angry, Haha, Sad, Surprise, Wow) as well as Russell’s valence, arousal, dominance (VAD) circumplex model for valence, arousal and dominance. Findings The results of regression analysis indicate how Facebook users felt about both presidential candidates. For Clinton’s page, both positive and negative content are equally liked, while Trump’s followers prefer funny and positive emotions. For both candidates, positive and negative content influences the number of comments. Trump’s followers mostly share positive content and the content that makes them angry, while Clinton’s followers share any content that does not make them angry. Based on VAD analysis, less dominant content, with high arousal and more positive emotions, is more liked on Trump’s page, where valence is a significant predictor for commenting and sharing. More positive content is more liked on Clinton’s page, where both positive and negative emotions with low arousal are correlated to commenting and sharing of posts. Originality/value Building on an empirical data set from Facebook, this study shows how differently the presidential candidates communicated on social media during the 2016 election campaign. According to the findings, Trump used a hard campaign strategy, while Clinton used a soft strategy.

COVID‐19 and 2020 presidential election speeches: A content analysis of pandemic campaign rhetoric

AbstractThis study examines how public health issues were communicated during the 2020 US presidential campaign, particularly those concerning the global COVID‐19 pandemic. Using content analysis, we examined the available campaign speeches of the two major candidates, Donald Trump and Joseph R. Biden. We examined how the candidates discussed the COVID‐19 pandemic and vital areas of public health in those speeches. Analysis of these speeches found little discussion on healthcare in general and little to no discussion on the vital areas of public health. We also found that COVID‐19 statements were not as prevalent as we anticipated, given the unprecedented scope of the pandemic. Even during a pandemic, public health matters received very little attention during a Presidential campaign. Public health topics accounted for less than 1% of the content in candidates' official speeches. Given that elites help increase knowledge of public health concerns and influence policy, the lack of attention given to the pandemic in the 2020 general election cycle is surprising, if not alarming.

The Translatability of Sports Metaphors in Political News

The present study investigates the difficulties and problems in deciphering the figurative meaning of English sports metaphors that appear in political news and, more specifically, in US presidential campaigns and their Arabic equivalents when they are under the detailed scrutiny of translation. In order to highlight the problem under discussion, the study explores the translation of some sports metaphors in their original context of use. Several English sports metaphors from different sports fields are collected randomly from British and US online newspapers with their possible equivalents in Arabic that are used in comparable texts that report the same topic. This comparative study focuses on the different strategies that are followed in rendering English sports metaphors in Arabic online newspapers. The researcher employed an empirical, descriptive and analytical approach where sports metaphors are described and classified. Their translations on online Arabic newspapers are also discussed and examined. The analysis will be based on the conceptual metaphor framework proposed by Lakoff and Johnson (1984). Thus, it will be important to assess the conceptualized experiences across different cultures, particularly between English and Arabic, in this study. The findings reveal that English sports metaphors pose a metaphorical and cultural threat to the Arab translator, who might be tempted to translate them literally in case s/he fails to understand their hidden meaning. Producing accurate translation equivalents for these items cannot be achieved without knowing their metaphorical senses and the ability to provide natural and acceptable equivalents in the target language. The aim is to create a similar impact on the target language audience.

DISPUTool 2.0: A Modular Architecture for Multi-Layer Argumentative Analysis of Political Debates

Political debates are one of the most salient moments of an election campaign, where candidates are challenged to discuss the main contemporary and historical issues in a country. These debates represent a natural ground for argumentative analysis, which has always been employed to investigate political discourse structure and strategy in philosophy and linguistics. In this paper, we present DISPUTool 2.0, an automated tool which relies on Argument Mining methods to analyse the political debates from the US presidential campaigns to extract argument components (i.e., premise and claim) and relations (i.e., support and attack), and highlight fallacious arguments. DISPUTool 2.0 allows also for the automatic analysis of a piece of a debate proposed by the user to identify and classify the arguments contained in the text. A REST API is provided to exploit the tool's functionalities.

Mapping moral language on US presidential primary campaigns reveals rhetorical networks of political division and unity.

During political campaigns, candidates use rhetoric to advance competing visions and assessments of their country. Research reveals that the moral language used in this rhetoric can significantly influence citizens' political attitudes and behaviors; however, the moral language actually used in the rhetoric of elites during political campaigns remains understudied. Using a data set of every tweet () published by 39 US presidential candidates during the 2016 and 2020 primary elections, we extracted moral language and constructed network models illustrating how candidates' rhetoric is semantically connected. These network models yielded two key discoveries. First, we find that party affiliation clusters can be reconstructed solely based on the moral words used in candidates' rhetoric. Within each party, popular moral values are expressed in highly similar ways, with Democrats emphasizing careful and just treatment of individuals and Republicans emphasizing in-group loyalty and respect for social hierarchies. Second, we illustrate the ways in which outsider candidates like Donald Trump can separate themselves during primaries by using moral rhetoric that differs from their parties' common language. Our findings demonstrate the functional use of strategic moral rhetoric in a campaign context and show that unique methods of text network analysis are broadly applicable to the study of campaigns and social movements.

Разбуженный капитализм: как американские олигархи «спасают» демократию

The article is a continuation of the series on US presidential campaigns. The latest of these, “A Shadow US Presidential Campaign”, revealed that the donor consortium Democracy Alliance sponsored a secret campaign against candidate Donald Trump in favor of the Democratic candidate, ostensibly “to save democracy”. The alliance-funded political infrastructure has given itself a mandate to transform the electoral system in 2020 under the pretext of ensuring safe voting amid the pandemic. The article describes the history of the emergence of oligarchic alliances in the United States and the extent of their influence on the political life of the country, and in particular, how private foundations directly interfere in elections and donate millions of dollars to organize and finance official counting of votes at the presincts, as happened in 2020. It is noted that the academic study of the influence of oligarchs on the electoral system is difficult due to the secrecy of this activity and, as a result of it, the insufficiency of the sources. The reasons why the classifications of oligarchies available in the literature do not clarify the essence of this problem are analyzed. The author gives a new interpretation of oligarchs and donor political consortiums as independent political subjects. The conditions and limitations of the compatibility of the oligarchs and their consortiums with democracy are discussed. The oligarchs are not divided into Republicans and Democrats, although they have to decide from time to time for which team (party) they are going to play in the next election cycle. There are currently two main opposing consortiums of donors in the US: conservatives and liberals, or “right” and “left”. The article describes the characteristics of consortiums as political entities distinct from other donor entities. The author analyzes a separate cycle of political philanthropy, as well as the political infrastructure of both consortiums. The conditions and limitations of the compatibility of the actions of the oligarchs and their consortiums with democracy are discussed. The article analyzes what exactly are the specific threats to democracy from the oligarchs, their consortiums and political structures sponsored by them, as well as where the actions of the oligarchs come into direct conflict with democratic institutions. The author discusses various deoligarchization strategies in the US and their effectiveness.

Polarized disinformation. The coverage of US presidential election by Polish TV

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: Analysis of how the 2020 US presidential election was covered and framed by Polish television news programs, and whether the polarization of media and politics in Poland was reflected in the studied content, influencing its bias.
 THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The analysis of the coverage of the US presidential campaign by three nationwide TV news programs – TVN, TVP and Polsat by using content analysis with elements of framing analysis and comparative analysis.
 THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: The article consists of four parts: the first explains the methodology of the study, the second discusses how presidential elections are covered and framed and what influences the national media being interested in covering foreign events. The third part presents the results of the study, and the last contains the discussion and conclusions.
 RESEARCH RESULTS: The coverage was dichotomous and there was a correlation between the political affiliation of the media and their choice of framing. The media used a combination of game, strategy and conflict framing that highlighted differences between Trump and Biden in terms of the election results and their personal attributes. We found that the electoral rivalry was portrayed as a conflict between the candidates and that the Polish media constructed “enemy” images of candidates and voters depending on their political sympathies.
 CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The polarization of media and politics in Poland was reflected in the coverage of the US election. The broadcasters placed Polish political conflicts in the context of the US campaign. It shows that foreign events may be covered by national media through the prism of political bias.

Visual Storytelling with Maps

Visual storytelling describes the communication of stories through illustrations, graphics, imagery, and video instead of, or in addition to, oral, written, and audio formats. Compared to their popularity and wide reach, empirical research on map-based visual stories remains limited. We work towards infilling this gap through an empirical study on data journalism, providing the first assessment of four emerging design considerations for visual storytelling with maps: story map themes and their constituent narrative elements, visual storytelling genres, visual storytelling tropes, and individual audience differences. Specifically, we recruited 125 participants to an online map study, requiring them to separately review two visual stories and respond to a series of free-response and Likert scale questions regarding their retention, comprehension, and reaction. We followed a 2×2×2 factorial design for the visual stories, varying their themes (US presidential campaign donations, US coastal sea-level rise), genres (longform infographic, dynamic slideshow), and tropes (color highlighting, leader lines), while holding other design dimensions constant. The story theme did not influence the participants’ total retention or comprehension, indicating that a three-act narrative and its constituent elements can be applied consistently and effectively across variable kinds of topics. Instead, genres and, to a weaker degree, tropes influenced total participant retention, pointing to the importance of intentional design in map-based visual storytelling. Participants overall performed better when the visual storytelling designs used longform infographics or “scrollytelling” (genres) to structure content and leader lines (tropes) to visually accent information. In contrast, the story theme influenced audience reaction, with participants feeling significantly more concerned about and upset with the US presidential campaign donations story compared to the US sea-level rise story. Individual audience differences by expertise, motivation, and prior beliefs also influenced participant reaction. Our study signals a need for establishing a research and education agenda on map-based visual storytelling in both cartography and data journalism.

Analyzing voter behavior on social media during the 2020 US presidential election campaign

Every day millions of people use social media platforms by generating a very large amount of opinion-rich data, which can be exploited to extract valuable information about human dynamics and behaviors. In this context, the present manuscript provides a precise view of the 2020 US presidential election by jointly applying topic discovery, opinion mining, and emotion analysis techniques on social media data. In particular, we exploited a clustering-based technique for extracting the main discussion topics and monitoring their weekly impact on social media conversation. Afterward, we leveraged a neural-based opinion mining technique for determining the political orientation of social media users by analyzing the posts they published. In this way, we were able to determine in the weeks preceding the Election Day which candidate or party public opinion is most in favor of. We also investigated the temporal dynamics of the online discussions, by studying how users’ publishing behavior is related to their political alignment. Finally, we combined sentiment analysis and text mining techniques to discover the relationship between the user polarity and sentiment expressed referring to the different candidates, thus modeling political support of social media users from an emotional viewpoint.

Strategic Unpredictability: Assessing the Doctrine from Nixon to Putin

During the 2016 US presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump suggested the United States could benefit from a more unpredictable foreign policy. The assassination of Iranian Major-General Qasem Soleimani by US forces in 2020 during the Trump administration may be the best recent example of this doctrine in action. Other American presidents, including John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, have applied it in different ways. Historical comparisons of its use in the Cuban Missile Crisis and the conflicts in Vietnam and Kosovo suggest that the expected liabilities of the strategy outweigh any likely gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be seeking to establish strategic unpredictability by threatening NATO with nuclear escalation should it interfere heavily in Russia’s war in Ukraine. This threat, however, has not deterred NATO from providing effective assistance to Ukraine. Policymakers should be deeply sceptical about the benefits of strategic unpredictability.

From Home Base to Swing States: The Evolution of Digital Advertising Strategies during the 2020 US Presidential Primary

Political advertising on digital platforms has grown dramatically in recent years as campaigns embrace new ways of targeting supporters and potential voters. We examine how political campaign dynamics have evolved in response to the growth of digital media by analyzing the advertising strategies of US presidential election campaigns during the 2020 primary cycle. To identify geographic and temporal trends, we employ regression analyses of campaign spending across nearly 600,000 advertisements published on Facebook. We show that campaigns employed a new strategy of targeting voters in candidates’ home states during the “invisible primary.” In contrast to earlier studies, we find that home state targeting is a key strategy for all campaigns, rather than just for politicians with existing political and financial networks. While all candidates advertised to their home state, those who dropped out during the invisible primary tended to spend disproportionately more than the candidates who outlasted them. We also find that as the first wave of state caucuses and primary elections approach, campaigns shift digital ad expenditures to states with early primaries such as Iowa and New Hampshire and, to a lesser extent, swing states.

Asymmetric flooding as a tool for foreign influence on social media

AbstractResearch on Russian troll activity during the 2016 US presidential campaign largely focused on divisive partisan messaging. Here, we document the use of apolitical content—content that could counteract mobilization efforts and escape detection in future campaigns. We argue this resembled techniques used by autocratic regimes domestically, in “flooding” social media with entertainment content to distract from and displace mobilizing messaging. Using automated text analysis and hand coding to construct a timeline of IRA messaging on Twitter, we find left-leaning trolls posted large volumes of entertainment content in their artificial liberal community and shifted away from political content late in the campaign. Simultaneously, conservative trolls were targeting their community with increases in political content. This suggests the use of apolitical content might be an overlooked strategy to selectively manipulate levels of attention to politics.

Metajournalistic Discourse and Reporting Policies on White Nationalism

In 2016 and 2017, several newsrooms presented guidelines for using the term “alt-right” in the wake of events such as the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia (USA) and the US presidential campaign of Donald Trump. This study analyzed metajournalistic discourse regarding the use of the term “alt-right” including internal newsroom policies and updates to newsroom manuals and externally published public discourse. The analysis tracks how news organizations and academic and trade journalism associations participated in discourse about the use of “alt-right,” and their peers’ policies around use of the term. The study finds that discourse shifted from requiring contextualization of the term in the first wave to requiring journalists to define the term or not use it at all in the second wave that began with the Charlottesville rally. Journalism organizations acknowledged, at times endorsed, and used each other's statements in developing their own understandings as an interpretive community and a community of practice.

Bases Loaded: How US Presidential Campaigns Are Changing and Why It Matters. By Costas Panagopoulos. New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 160p. $99.00 cloth, $27.95 paper.

Bases Loaded: How US Presidential Campaigns Are Changing and Why It Matters. By Costas Panagopoulos. New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 160p. $99.00 cloth, $27.95 paper.

How the ‘Law and Order’ Trope Individualizes Racism and Inverts Racial Vulnerability

During the 1968 US presidential campaign, Richard Nixon infamously ran as the “law and order” candidate, invoking in his Republican nomination acceptance speech the domestic protests against racial injustice and the Vietnam war. In the 2020 presidential campaign, Donald Trump revived Richard Nixon’s “law and order” slogan as part of his response to the Black Lives Matter protests after George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis on May 25th. In this paper, we examine how Trump and his supporters use the “law and order” trope to move public discourse about racism away from critical understandings that view racism as embedded in institutionalized practices and policies, and toward the racial ideology encapsulated in what Jane Hill (2008) calls the “folk theory of race and racism.” Whereas the racial justice movement attempts to center public discourse on systemic racism in policing, the “law and order” trope works to decenter that discourse by individualizing racism and thereby minimizing concerns about the system-wide pattern of racism. As it reinforces the dominant understanding of racism that underpins much US public discourse, the “law and order” trope inverts the racial vulnerability so that Black bodies and racial justice protesters are seen as threats rather than victims of state-sanctioned violence. We illustrate these ideas by drawing from examples of public discourse in response to the summer 2020 racial justice protests, including excerpts from Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingraham’s shows on Fox News in the days immediately following Floyd’s killing through Ingraham’s interview of Trump at the end of the summer. Our analysis explains how the discourse spawned by the “law and order” trope reinscribes key assumptions about racism, dismisses calls for racial justice, and perpetuates the racial status quo — thereby posing a substantial barrier to changing the policies and practices that lead to racial inequities in policing.