US Air Research Articles

The Use of Force Plate Vertical Jump Scans to Identify Special Warfare Trainees at Risk for Musculoskeletal Injury: A Large Cohort Study

Background: Vertical jump scans from commercially available force plate systems are increasingly used in military settings to screen for musculoskeletal injury (MSKI) risk. However, to date, no studies have determined the ability of these tools to identify tactical athletes at elevated risk for MSKI. Purpose: To (1) determine associations between scores from a force plate vertical jump test and the likelihood of experiencing an MSKI and to (2) establish the test-retest reliability of the output scores from the force plate system used. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 823 male Air Force Special Warfare trainees underwent force plate vertical jump screenings before entering an 8-week training course at US Air Force Special Warfare Training Wing. MSKI data were collected for the 8-week surveillance period for each trainee. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify associations between baseline force plate jump scores and the likelihood of MSKI (any region) or a lower extremity MSKI (significance level, P = .05). The test-retest portion of the study collected force plate output scores from 12 trainees performing 3 trials of the standard test procedures. The reliability of 5 output scores was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) using a single rater. Results: All force plate output scores demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability (ICC >0.90). Overall 308 (36.4%) trainees had an MSKI during the surveillance period. However, no significant associations were found between the proprietary force plate vertical jump scan output scores and the likelihood of experiencing either an MSKI or a lower extremity MSKI. Conclusion: Output scores from this commercially available force plate system did not identify Air Force Special Warfare trainees at elevated risk of experiencing an MSKI.

Improving the effectiveness of embedded behavioral health personnel through situational judgment training

ABSTRACT Embedding behavioral health (EBH) personnel into operational units has emerged as a major trend within the US military. These positions require skillsets in addition to those needed in a clinic setting. Little or no empirically based training has yet been developed to ensure preparedness to serve in EBH roles. Based on the demonstrated effectiveness of situational judgment tests (SJT) in training for other domains, we developed and evaluated 60 SJT scenarios for use in the US Air Force’s formal EBH training course. SJTs were based on real-world experiences of seasoned EBH professionals, and were used for structured, scenario-based discussions during training as well as a 30-item pre- and posttest to assess learning. Use during training was associated with significantly improved scores in six EBH competencies (ethical decision-making, leadership consultation, balancing professional relationships, unit engagement, triage to correct services, and teaming). In a follow-up survey, students reported scenario-based discussions were very helpful, and reported improved abilities and confidence. This study demonstrates the potential utility of the SJT methodology to prepare mental health professionals to serve in EBH positions. Further development and possible applications are discussed, such as expansion to other training venues, job candidate screening, and assessment for readiness for EBH practice.

The Efficacy of Airpower in Counterinsurgency

Since 2001, the United States has relied upon air strikes in its global counterterrorism campaign against insurgencies throughout the world. With advances in air strike technology, public opinion growing increasingly intolerant of deployments of ground forces abroad, and the proliferation of terrorist groups around the world, the use of air strikes appears to be the future of US counterterrorism policy. This study tests the efficacy of air strikes as a counterinsurgency tool by geocoordinating US air strike data and merging it with three major databases on conflict events to assess whether air strikes influence the rate of insurgent attacks. Our analysis reveals that air strikes reduce insurgents’ capacity to carry out attacks over the long term. At the same time, air strikes carry a short-term, provocative effect on insurgent attacks when they result in civilian fatalities. Finally, there is some evidence that air strikes increase attack attempts, but these attempts are not always successful, nor directed toward government forces.

Developing and validating a serious game‐based assessment for cyber occupations in the US Air Force

AbstractWe present initial structural validity evidence for a serious game designed for personnel selection and classification for cybersecurity roles in the US Air Force (USAF). Based on literature review and input from USAF cybersecurity subject‐matter‐experts, we targeted six constructs for assessment. We describe the development process used to build a game to assess individual differences in these constructs, while also being engaging and motivating for players. We attend to the challenge of avoiding an overall game performance factor that dominates variance of multiple constructs scored from the same gameplay episodes and report steps taken to enhance discriminant validity of the scores. We apply factor analysis and item response theory models to develop scores that are reliable, show discriminant validity, and show modest education/gender group differences.

Campus Reset: Dynamic Planning and Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infections at the US Air Force Academy.

Predominantly asymptomatic infections, such as those for SARS-CoV-2, require robust surveillance testing to identify people who are unknowingly spreading the virus. The US Air Force Academy returned to in-person classes for more than 4000 cadets aged 18-26 years during the fall 2020 semester to meet graduation and leadership training requirements. To enable this sustained cadet footprint, the institution developed a dynamic SARS-CoV-2 response plan using near-real-time data to inform decisions and trigger policies. A surveillance testing program based on mathematical modeling and a policy-driven campus reset option provided a scaled approach to react to SARS-CoV-2 conditions. This program adequately controlled the spread of the virus for the first 2 months of the academic semester but failed to predict or initially mitigate a significant outbreak in the second half of the semester. Although this approach did not completely eliminate SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, it served as an early warning system to alert public health authorities to potential issues, which allowed timely responses while containment was still possible.

A multilayered block network model to forecast large dynamic transportation graphs: An application to US air transport

Dynamic transportation networks have been analyzed for years by means of static graph-based indicators in order to study the temporal evolution of relevant network components, and to reveal complex dependencies that would not be easily detected by a direct inspection of the data. This paper presents a state-of-the-art probabilistic latent network model to forecast multilayer dynamic graphs that are increasingly common in transportation and proposes a community-based extension to reduce the computational burden. Flexible time series analysis is obtained by modeling the probability of edges between vertices through latent Gaussian processes. The models and Bayesian inference are illustrated on a sample of 10-year data from four major airlines within the US air transportation system. Results show how the estimated latent parameters from the models are related to the airlines’ connectivity dynamics, and their ability to project the multilayer graph into the future for out-of-sample full network forecasts, while stochastic blockmodeling allows for the identification of relevant communities. Reliable network predictions would allow policy-makers to better understand the dynamics of the transport system, and help in their planning on e.g. route development, or the deployment of new regulations.

MRNA COVID-19 vaccine safety in pregnancy

David Grant USAF Medical Center FMR Travis AFB, Fairfield, CA The author declares no conflict of interest. The opinions and assertions contained herein are those of the author and are not to be construed as official or as reflecting the views of the US Air Force Medical Department, the Air Force at large, or the Department of Defense.

Spiritual over physical formidability determines willingness to fight and sacrifice through loyalty in cross-cultural populations

Across 11 studies involving six countries from four continents (n = 3,285), we extend insights from field investigations in conflict zones to offline and online surveys to show that personal spiritual formidability-the conviction and immaterial resources (values, strengths of beliefs, character) of a person to fight-is positively associated with the will to fight and sacrifice for others. The physical formidability of groups in conflict has long been promoted as the primary factor in human decisions to fight or flee in times of conflict. Here, studies in Spain, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Morocco reveal that personal spiritual formidability, a construct distinct from religiosity, is more strongly associated with the willingness to fight and make costly self-sacrifices for the group than physical formidability. A follow-on study among cadets of the US Air Force Academy further indicates that this effect is mediated by a stronger loyalty to the group, a finding replicated in a separate study with a European sample. The results demonstrate that personal spiritual formidability is a primary determinant of the will to fight across cultures, and this individual-level factor, propelled by loyal bonds made with others, disposes citizens and combatants to fight at great personal risk.

Specifics of the US Air Force intelligence assessment

Specifics of the US Air Force intelligence assessment

Interview: Robert Latiff on the worsening international security situation in space

ABSTRACT Robert Latiff is a retired US Air Force major general and a private consultant who provides advice on advanced technology matters to corporate and government clients and to universities. His current work includes research on the ethical implications of emerging and dual-use technologies. He has served on the staffs of Headquarters US Air Force and the Secretary of the Air Force. A member of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board, Latiff spoke recently with Bulletin editor-in-chief John Mecklin about the worsening international security situation as countries jockey for both military and private-sector advantage in space. This conversation occurred before Russia acknowledged testing an anti-satellite weapon in space, creating a debris field that could threaten the International Space Station and highlighting international tensions over use of space.

Forever air wars and the lawful purpose of self-defence

ABSTRACT The 20-year Afghanistan conflict was called a ‘forever war’ but another significant use of military force has lasted much longer. Since 1986, US presidents have authorised air attacks beyond armed conflict zones. President Biden continued the practice beginning with a strike on Syria and later on Iraq, Somalia, and Afghanistan, where a drone cost the lives of seven children. US air wars are explained more by a policy of deterrence, than the lawful purpose of self-defence as permitted under international law. UN Charter Article 51 restricts force to when an armed attack occurs. The general principles of necessity, proportionality, and attribution provide further restrictions. The US has tried for 35-years to alter this law in line with deterrence policy but doing so is difficult under the doctrine of positive law. It is impossible under the doctrine of jus cogens that includes the prohibition on force and the exception for self-defence.

Development of the approach to the analysis of aviation industry’s adaptation to seasonal disruptions

The main purpose of this study is to develop a model that will allow predicting the stability of the aviation industry to various failures. The main focus is on the Covid-19 period, as it had a serious impact on the work of airlines and caused huge economic crises. The study proposes a predictive model for the integrated measurement of the stability of the aviation industry. Data from the United States Bureau of Statistics were used, as they contain information about the main US air carriers, and Covid statistics provided by Johns Hopkins University were also used. The proposed model was tested, and it showed a noticeable increase in performance on both training and test data. From the analysis using a predictive machine learning model, it can be seen that this is a reliable approach when it comes to choosing an operator to manage failures, and the model can potentially help air carriers identify likely risk factors and optimize their business strategy. This study will contribute to the development of the aviation industry and provide air carriers and airline managers with recommendations that can help improve their organizational stability and productivity.

Developing a Quality Assurance Approach for an Online Professional Military Education Institution

With the increasing demand for online learning, higher education institutions are heightening their focus on assuring online course quality (Allen and Seaman, 2015). However, they lack consensus on what constitutes assuring quality in online courses (Vlachopoulos, 2016), which is challenging for institutions seeking to develop quality assurance approaches. This paper describes how a specific institution, the US Air Force’s eSchool of Graduate Professional Military Education (eSchool), developed and implemented an evaluative instrument to assure course design quality within its unique context. This example provides a valuable perspective for those developing quality assurance processes and resources for their online programs.

Agent Blue Spraying in the Mekong Delta during the Vietnam War: Fate of the Arsenic Based Herbicide Weapon Used to Destroy Rice Crop and Mangrove Forests

Agent Blue, a mixture of cacodylic acid (CH3) As O2H) and sodium cacodylate (C2H6 AsNaO2), was a tactical arsenic-based herbicide used during the Vietnam War to destroy grasses and rice crops. Natural and synthetic sources of arsenic can degrade into water-soluble forms and persist in groundwater and potentially contribute to elevating As levels in drinking water. The United States Department of Defense (DOD) and United States Department of Agricultural (USDA) Operation Ranch Hand records for tactical herbicides including Agent Blue sprayed in southern Vietnam during the Vietnam War (1961-1971) are very detailed, rather complete and publicly available. The same is not true for tactical herbicides sprayed by the Republic of Vietnam (RV) during the Khai Quang program which was supported by the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the Mekong Delta. Agent Blue was sprayed by the RV military for three years before the official start of the American-Vietnam War. Few, if any, RV military, US Army, US Navy and CIA spray records exist from 1962 to 1965. Vietnam War veterans, historians and scholars have reported the spraying of 3.2 million liters (468,008 kg As) of Agent Blue on rice paddies and mangrove forests in the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands by the RV military with the support of the US Army, US Navy and CIA. The Institute of Medicine estimated that 3.2 million liters (468,000 kg As) were sprayed during the RV Khai Quang program. This was in addition to the U.S. Air Force’s Operation Ranch Hand spraying of the tactical herbicide Agent Blue primarily by C-123 aircraft. The Operation Ranch Hand missions maintained location and quantities of herbicides sprayed (over 4,712,000 liters (664,392 kg As) from 1961-1971. The RV military and US military (Army and Navy) spray equipment included hand and backpack sprayers, sprayers mounted on Brown Water Navy boats, on Army track vehicles and Army land-based helicopters and helicopters based on the decks of Blue Water Navy ships. Some of these spray missions were a military secret and spray records were classified or if kept were not maintained. Agent Blue containing cacodylic acid had a short half-life and degraded to water-soluble arsenic, which was released into the surface water and/or leached into the groundwater. Once the water-soluble arsenic leached into the Vietnam Mekong Delta groundwater, the arsenic-rich water was pumped back to the surface by tens of thousands of tube wells for urban and agricultural use. The primary objectives of this research are to explore the conditions during the Vietnam War under which 1) the RV military herbicide spray program with the support of the US Navy, CIA and US Army, and 2) the US Air Force spray program during Operation Ranch Hand may have significantly contributed to the natural and anthropic As spikes found in the Mekong Delta today. The environmental impacts of Agent Blue, on the Menominee River at manufacturing sites in the United States, were studied to identify possible As remediation and mitigation strategies. The lessons previously learned at the manufacturing sites in Wisconsin and Michigan, United States can be considered and applied to the Mekong Delta to help mitigate and remediate the arsenic-rich surface water, soil, sediment and groundwater found in the Mekong Delta.

Letecké střetnutí nad Slaným 2. března 1945

On 2 March 1945 over 1,200 bombers of the 8th US Air Force attacked the oil refineries in Ruhland, Böhlen, Rositz and Magdeburg. Bad weather forced the bombers to disperse, and they were attacked by German fighter planes. One air-to-air combat took place over the town of Slaný. A formation of 12 B-17 Flying Fortresses of the 398th Bomb Group attacked several Focke-Wulf Fw 190s of the Jagdgeschwader 301. A bomber (No. 44-6573) crashed south of the town on a field. Only one man survived from nine-man crew. One German fighter plane crashed near Třebíz, and its pilot died. Another German plane made an emergency landing near Vrbičany. American fighters subsequently entered the battle, and they shot down another German fighter near Řeporyje.

The uneven geography of US air traffic delays: Quantifying the impact of connecting passengers on delay propagation

Sustained airport congestion periods translate into delays, especially in hub-and-spoke networks in which delay propagation is more evident.We examine the impact of connecting passenger arrival delays on network delay propagation by using passenger level data combined with flight delay data that allow us to analyse the correlation between delayed incoming flights and departure delays at the 21 U.S. airports with most delays, in July 2018.Results show that correlation between daily arrival delays and daily carrier induced departure delays are statistically significant only for flights carrying high proportions of connecting passengers. Correlation values are also higher for short-to-moderate arrival delays. In addition, a Neural Network model was trained for six major airports to build a delay prediction model and map the potential delay propagation. The results of the propagation scenarios suggest that the presence of a unique dominant carrier at an airport translates into a stronger correlation between arrival and carrier delays than that at airports where different carriers compete for connecting passengers. Furthermore, airline hubs located near the areas of the network with more traffic density, independently of the hub's volume of traffic, are more likely to propagate the delay than hubs located in the periphery. The results of this study can be relevant for airline, airport, and traffic control policies aimed at mitigating airport and network congestion.

Development of a situational judgment test to supplement current US air force measures of officership

ABSTRACT Aptitude requirements for US Air Force officer commissioning include completion of a college degree and minimum scores on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test (AFOQT) Verbal and Quantitative composites. Although the AFOQT has demonstrated predictive validity for officer training, the Air Force has striven to improve predictive validity and diversity. To this end, a Situational judgment Test (SJT) was added to the AFOQT in 2015. SJT development was consistent with recommendations to broaden the competencies assessed by the AFOQT with the goal of providing incremental validity, while reducing adverse impact for historically underrepresented groups. To ensure content validity and realism, SJT development was based on competencies identified in a large-scale analysis of officership and input from junior officers in scenario and response generation and scoring. Psychometric evaluations have affirmed its potential benefits for inclusion on the AFOQT. An initial study showed the SJT to be perceived as highly face valid regardless of whether it was presented as a paper-and-pencil test (with narrative or scripted scenarios) or in a video-based format. Preliminary studies demonstrated criterion-related validity within small USAF samples, and a larger Army cadet sample. Additionally, operational administration of the SJT since 2015 has demonstrated its potential for improving diversity (i.e., reduced adverse impact relative to the AFOQT Verbal and Quantitative composites). Predictive validation studies with larger Air Force officer accession samples are ongoing to assess the incremental validity of the SJT beyond current AFOQT composites for predicting important outcomes across accession sources.

Cheaper tobacco product prices at US Air Force Bases compared with surrounding community areas, 2019

IntroductionIn March 2017, the US Department of Defense (DoD) implemented a policy requiring all military stores to set tobacco prices equal to ‘prevailing prices’ in the ‘local community’ adjusted for...

Efficacy of a group-based brief tobacco intervention among young adults aged 18-20 years in the US Air Force.

INTRODUCTIONMost smokers begin using tobacco before the age of 25 years, making it important to reduce tobacco use during adolescence and early adulthood. Rates of use are historically higher among military personnel. While ‘Tobacco 21’ made it illegal for US retailers to sell tobacco to those aged <21 years, the policy did not address cessation for current youth and young adult tobacco users. Additionally, there is limited research on cessation interventions among young adults under 21 years. The current study evaluated the efficacy of a group-based Brief Tobacco Intervention (BTI) among US Air Force trainees, who are predominantly aged 18–20 years and directly impacted by Tobacco 21 legislation.METHODSParticipants were 2969 US Air Force Trainees from April 2017 through January 2018 cluster randomized to three conditions: 1) BTI + Airman’s Guide to Remaining Tobacco Free (AG), 2) AG alone, and 3) the National Cancer Institute’s Clearing the Air (CTA) pamphlet. To assess the efficacy of the interventions among people aged 18–20 years, a domain analysis (<21 years, n=2117; and ≥21 years, n=852) of a multinomial logistic regression model was run.RESULTSMono tobacco users aged <21 years at baseline who received the BTI+AG had higher odds of quitting tobacco at 3 months (OR=2.13; 95% CI: 1.02–4.46). Dual and poly users aged <21 years at baseline who received the BTI+AG intervention had higher odds of reducing the number of tobacco products used at 3 months (OR=2.94; 95% CI: 1.03–8.37).CONCLUSIONSThe BTI was effective for people aged 18–20 years. The current study offers insight into components of interventions that might be successful in helping this age group decrease tobacco use.

54. Self-Perception of Risk for HIV Acquisition and Calculated Risk for HIV Acquisition Among Active Duty Air Force Members with Newly Diagnosed HIV Infection

BackgroundPersons may underestimate their risk of HIV infection despite presence of risk factors. Accurate appraisal of HIV risk may assist both patients and providers in preventing HIV acquisition. We evaluated self-perceived risk (SPR) versus calculated risk (CR) of HIV infection in active duty US Air Force (USAF) members with incident HIV infection.MethodsUSAF members with new HIV diagnosis evaluated at a specialty care military medical center between January 2015-March 2020 with available case report forms were included (n=142). Chart reviews were performed and demographic, social, and clinical characteristics were collected from initial Infectious Disease specialty encounters and case report forms. SPR was characterized as Low or High and compared to CR derived by the Denver HIV Risk Score (DHRS) by points based on patient demographic and risk exposure characteristics.ResultsOverall, patients were predominantly male (98%), with a median age of 26 years (IQR 22-30), and the majority (85%) reported same-sex partners (Table 1). Patients more commonly characterized themselves as Low SPR (n=78; 55%) than High SPR (n=64; 45%). Demographic characteristics were similar except a higher proportion of Low SPR patients (29%) were married or partnered compared to High SPR patients (14%; p=0.04). There was no difference in self-reported condom use (≥50% of the time) between Low (63%) and High (72%) SPR patients (p=0.28) and documented history of sexually transmitted infections was similarly high in both groups ( >70%; p=0.85). Previous HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use was uncommon in both Low SPR (8%) and High SPR (6%) groups. For the evaluation of CR by DHRS (Table 2), both Low and High SPR groups had median scores in the very high risk category (≥50 points) with similar results by test component. ConclusionUSAF members with incident HIV infection more commonly identified with low SPR despite similar risk behaviors and CRs as high SPR patients. The development of patient education programs and promotion of HIV prevention services including PrEP are needed to reduce incident HIV cases in the USAF. Validated HIV risk calculators like the DHRS may also assist medical providers in identifying candidates for HIV prevention services.Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures