Global climate change is driving the need to reshape the relationship between urban land transportation and greenhouse gas mitigation and to improve spatial coherence for regional development through an enhanced transportation network. In this study, we selected 135 cities in urbanized China to examine the spatial spillover effect of transportation on carbon emissions. The spatial Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, Land, and Transportation (STIRPALT) model was used to consider regional linkages through passengers and freight flows on railways and highways, respectively. In addition, the regional strategy of formulating urban agglomeration was embedded in the spatial STIRPALT to investigate its potential effect. Results revealed that the spatial spillover effects through land transportation become apparent from 2015 to 2020 and have exhibited greater influence on highways through the passenger flows than freight flows in 2020. These spatial spillovers are also revealed to be sensitive to regional urban agglomeration strategies. The urbanization rate, the industrial added value, railway length, and built-up land area were also identified to contribute to carbon emissions. Deploying the threshold of the spatial spillover effect of passenger-induced road transport to guide the formulation of the regional development strategies offers great potential to help to address global climate change.
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