Urban Homicide Research Articles

Homicide in Global Extremes: Exploring the Feasibility of EHM-Based Analysis in Finland and South Africa

Homicide remains a major cause of death globally. The global risk differentials are a persistent public health challenge. Africa’s homicide rate of 13 victims per 100,000 people is markedly higher than the European average (2.2 per 100,000 people). To understand the causes of such large differences, homicide research needs to move from country-level rates to disaggregated analyses in which homicide is broken down by victim, offender, and incident characteristics. We conducted a pilot study in which the European Homicide Monitor (EHM) coding manual is applied to a South African research location and compared to an extreme point in the Global North, Finnish urban areas. We find differential patterns in the two locations. The high-rate context of South Africa manifests a younger offender and victim age structure, a higher share of criminal and revenge motives and the use of firearms, and incidents in public places. In contrast, the comparatively low-rate Finnish context shows a higher relative share of intimate partner violence and familial incidents taking place in private places. The role of alcohol and drugs appears more salient in Finnish urban homicide, a finding calling for replication. We conclude by discussing the methodological challenges revealed by the pilot comparison.

Why did US urban homicide spike in 2020? A cross-sectional data analysis for the largest American cities.

Working with data about homicide victims and perpetrators from 50 of America's largest cities, we investigate the explanatory power of some familiar explanations for why murder in those cities rose sharply in 2020. The analysis reveals that the distribution of risk by race was essentially the same in 2020 as in 2019. That empirical finding challenges some theories of how racial tensions after the death of George Floyd may have driven homicide increases. Similarly, homicide growth was not concentrated in those cities with the greatest availability in 2020 of new and older guns, or among the cities that suffered the most from the COVID-19 pandemic. At a minimum, the cross-city outcomes should reduce confidence that some combination of "race, guns, and COVID-19" explains all of the most important aspects of what happened in 2020.

Social Disorganization and Urban Homicide Rates: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis in São Paulo, Brazil 2000 to 2015

This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015). Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel regression techniques, we describe spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates and assess to what extent social disorganization can explain between-district variation in homicide trajectories. The results showed some variation in the pattern of homicide decline across districts, and less disorganized communities experienced earlier, more linear declines. However, we found no evidence to suggest that changes in social disorganization are associated with differences in the decline in homicide rates.

Trends of Rural/Urban Homicide in Colombia, 1992-2015: Internal Armed Conflict and Hints for Postconflict.

Objective To analyze the relationship between rural and urban homicide rates in Colombia between 1992 and 2015 and the fluctuations in these rates. Methods Individual records of homicides and population aggregates in men and women aged 15-64 years were used. The adjusted rates of annual homicides were calculated for urban/rural areas and standardized by age. Rate Ratios (RRs) adjusted by region were calculated. A joinpoint analysis was performed to identify inflection points and the Annual Percentage Change (APC). Results Four joinpoints were identified in rural and urban rates: after peaking in 1992, homicide rates fell until 1997, and then increased until 2002. From this point on there was a continuous reduction until 2015, although this reduction slowed down from 2005 onward. During almost the whole period, the rates of rural homicides were higher than those of urban homicides, although they equalized at the end of the period. Conclusions Unlike in other countries, during the study period Colombian homicide rates, which coincided with the dynamics of the armed conflict, were higher in rural than in urban areas. In recent years, a predominance of urban homicides committed by younger men has been identified, which could pose a challenge to postconflict in Colombia.

Separate, Unequal, and Uncorrelated: Why We Need to Consider Race-specific Homicide Rates in US Metropolitan Areas

Sociologists recognize that American metropolitan areas continue to be highly segregated by race and that blacks continue to experience much higher homicide rates than whites across metropolitan areas. We show that the racial divide goes beyond separate and unequal to the point of being uncorrelated. Based on data from the Centers for Disease Control Underlying Cause of Death files 2008–2010 and the American Community Survey, this paper reports that homicide rates for whites and blacks are uncorrelated across US metropolitan areas. We show that under these conditions, the practice of analyzing overall homicide rates can substantially misrepresent both subgroups and that the correlations of other variables with overall homicide rates systematically exaggerate the average of the correlations with the two separate homicide rates. We therefore suggest that it is crucial to analyze rates of black and white homicide separately to accurately describe and understand causes and consequences of urban homicide.

Urban Homicide in the United States, 1980-2010

Using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) mortality and census data with Supplementary Homicide Reports, we compare 25- and 30-year homicide trends for four age-race-sex categories in 172 U.S. cities. The comparisons indicate that one of the most salient aspects of homicide in the United States from 1980 to 2010 was the disproportionate involvement of young Black men as homicide victims and offenders. The persistence of these rates before, during, and after a sharp rise followed by a dramatic drop in the overall rates suggests the need for a focus on specific explanations for this aspect of urban homicide.

Exploring and explaining the geography of homicide: patterns of lethal violence in Britain and Europe 1805–1900

By analysing the geography of homicide throughout the nineteenth century in two different legal systems – those of England and Wales, and of Scotland – this article critiques recent work that has suggested that the century was characterised by low rates in urban areas and high rates in peripheral and predominantly rural ones. In the process it indicates that all these parts of Britain witnessed rapidly rising homicide rates in the first half of the nineteenth century and equally large falls in the second half. By comparing the first half of the nineteenth century with the period 1878–92 it uncovers both a fundamental continuity, that is, a pattern of higher homicide rates in rapidly growing industrial cities such as Glasgow, Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool and a major discontinuity. This took the form of a considerable degree of convergence between urban and rural homicide rates as the century came to an end. Possible reasons for this are then discussed before a concluding section overviews homicide rates in late nineteenth-century Europe as a whole and suggests a more complex model which may enable the geography of homicide to be more fully explained and understood.

Firearm Mortality Rates: Rural Versus Urban US Children

Source: Nance ML, Carr BG, Kallan MJ, et al. Variation in pediatric and adolescent firearm mortality rates in rural and urban US counties. Pediatrics. 2010; 125(6): 1112– 1118; doi: 10.1542/peds.2009-3219Researchers from the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania compared firearm mortality rates in children living in urban and rural counties. Using US vital statistics data from 1999–2006, they categorized all firearm injury deaths in youth, 0 to 19 years of age, both by intent (homicide, suicide, or unintentional) and according to the type classification of each county along a 10-point scale from most urban to most rural, based on both population and proximity to metropolitan areas. After controlling for several characteristics of individual counties, the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for different types of deaths in the most urban and most rural counties were calculated. The authors also compared deaths from causes other than firearms in urban and rural counties.During the eight-year study period, 23,649 firearm-related deaths occurred in US youth, including 15,190 homicides and 7,082 suicides. Firearm homicides were significantly more common in the most urban than most rural counties (OR=3.69; 95% CI, 2.00–6.80). Conversely, increasing rates of both firearm suicide (OR 2.01; 95% CI, 1.43–2.83) and unintentional deaths (OR 2.19; 95% CI, 1.27–3.77) were observed in more rural counties. These variations produced overall firearm mortality rates that were statistically indistinguishable when comparing the most rural with the most urban counties (OR=0.91; 95% CI, 0.63–1.32). Whereas firearm death rates in rural and urban counties were similar, non-firearm injury death rates were much higher in rural than in urban counties.The authors conclude that programs to reduce firearm-related deaths in children are needed in all locales, but that different approaches are needed in urban and rural areas.Since the 1980s, firearm injury has shifted from being an epidemic condition to being endemic in the US.1 The statistics are staggering — during the years covered by the present study, firearm injury accounted for more than 11% of all deaths in those aged 1 to 19 years.2The present study offers convincing evidence that the overall burden of pediatric firearm death is shared by rural and urban communities, although the leading manner of death differs. The predominance of homicide deaths in urban counties, in contrast to the predominance of suicide deaths in rural ones, likely has fostered the mistaken impression that firearm injuries overall are chiefly an urban problem. This is in part because the total numbers (as opposed to rates) of homicides are higher, and in part because suicides are less likely to be publicized.3 The relatively higher rates of non-firearm injury deaths in rural counties may further obscure the importance of firearm injuries there.The strengths of this study lie in its use of nationwide statistics focused on the county level, with clearly defined criteria for designating counties as urban or rural. One might question the authors’ decision to designate the county where the fatal injury occurred as the county of interest; for example, if firearms used for urban homicide are actually acquired in rural counties (which might have more gun shops), part of the prevention effort might need to target the rural counties. On the other hand, the finding that many unintentional deaths occurred away from victims’ county of residence suggests that preventive measures at sites where children visit are critical.Prevention of firearm deaths in urban areas must involve community-level interventions aimed at root causes of crime (poverty, drug abuse, etc.), as well as at reducing access to illegal guns.4 Recent research casts doubt on the notion that gun possession in urban settings protects from gun assault.5 In rural areas, where suicide and unintentional firearm deaths predominate, access to mental health care must be improved,6 but reducing access to firearms is also critical.7,8 Pediatricians should encourage gun owners to consider removing them from their homes, or at least to store them unloaded and locked away, apart from ammunition.

To Know the Unknown: The Decline in Homicide Clearance Rates, 1980—2000

Against the backdrop of the precipitous decline in urban homicide clearance over the past several decades, this study examines factors that may be linked to within-city, over-time variation in homicide clearance rates from 1980 to 2000. Conceptual arguments focusing on case-level characteristics of homicides as well as the broader macrosocial context are delineated and empirically tested. Results from a fixed-effects regression analysis reveal that changes in clearance rates are linked to changes in the situational characteristics of murder incidents such as the percentage of cases involving strangers, firearms, other felonies, and arguments. In addition, within-city changes in immigration are found to be associated with lower clearance rates, whereas drug market arrests are associated with higher clearance rates. Contrary to politically popular assertions, clearance rates do not appear to be a function of changes in police personnel or workload.

Dimensions of racial segregation, hypersegregation, and Black homicide rates

Prior research assessing the association between racial residential segregation and Black urban homicides has not considered each of the five dimensions of segregation or the phenomenon of hypersegregation. In this study, indicators of each of the five dimensions of segregation, as well as measures of severe segregation and hypersegregation were considered, in order to assess Black homicide rates across 201 metropolitan statistical areas. Four of the five indicators of segregation were found to predict the dependent variable, although some evidence of an empirical overlap between dimensions was uncovered. Additionally, two indicators of severe segregation (exposure and centralization dimensions) and two measures of hypersegregation (i.e., a dummy variable and a count of the number of dimensions of severe segregation that exist in a given metro area) were found to be associated with Black homicides. The findings were interpreted as supporting Massey and Denton's ideas about the consequences of hypersegregation and Wilson's notion of concentrated disadvantage as explanations for Black urban homicide rates.

The dynamic relationship between homicide rates and social, economic, and political factors from 1970 to 2000

After reaching their highest levels of the 20th century, homicide rates in the United States declined precipitously in the early 1990s. This study examines a number of factors that might have contributed to both the sharp increase and decline in homicide rates. We use a pooled cross-sectional time series model to assess the relationship between changes in structural conditions and the change in homicide rates over four decennial time points (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). We assess the extent to which structural covariates associated with social, economic and political conditions commonly used in homicide research (e.g., urban decay, poverty, and the weakening of family and social bonds) are related to the change in homicide rates. Along with these classic covariates, we incorporate some contemporary explanations (e.g., imprisonment rates and drug trafficking) that have been proposed to address the recent decline in urban homicide rates. Our results indicate that both classic and contemporary explanations are related to homicide trends over the last three decades of the 20th century. Specifically, changes in resource deprivation and in the relative size of the youth population are associated with changes in the homicide rate across these time points. Increased imprisonment is also significantly related to homicide changes. These findings lead us to conclude that efforts to understand the changing nature of homicide will require serious consideration, if not integration, of classic and contemporary explanations.

Race and Gender-Disaggregated Homicide Offending Rates

Although gender and race are two of the best known correlates of violent crime, surprisingly little research has examined how gender and race intersect in the etiology of violent behavior. To redress this, the authors' study integrates a communities and crime perspective within a gender inequality framework to examine the city-level correlates of homicide offending rates disaggregated by race and gender. Two questions are addressed: a) Are the contextual underpinnings for high rates of urban homicide in the United States similar or distinct across race and gender categories? b) Does the ability of city characteristics as predictors of violence vary depending upon the context of violence (i.e., by victim-offender relationship)? Consistent with expectations, findings indicate that there are differences in the relative importance of predictors of homicide across race and gender categories. In addition, the relative importance of homicide predictors depends upon the nature of the victim-offender relationship.

Analyzing Homicide Problems: Practical Approaches to Developing a Policy-relevant Description of Serious Urban Violence

Urban homicide problems are highly concentrated among a small number of gang- and group-involved chronic offenders who are well known to the criminal justice system. Problem-oriented policing can be an effective approach to understanding and responding to the ongoing violent conflicts among gangs and criminally active groups that generate urban homicide problems. Unfortunately, problem analysis is often weak, and the resulting problem descriptions are limited in developing crime prevention programs. A set of simple research methodologies has been used in several US cities to better understand urban homicide problems and to implement promising homicide prevention programs. These problem analysis methods include: documenting the criminal backgrounds and criminal justice system involvement of homicide victims and homicide offenders; conducting homicide incident reviews; and identifying gangs, criminal groups, and inter-group conflict patterns. In this paper, these techniques are discussed and applied to understand homicide in Stockton, California.

Deadly Violence in the Heartland

In the study of homicide, one common research finding is the strong association between urbanization and homicide rates. The strength of the association between urbanism and homicide rates should have led to a large body of research comparing rural and urban homicide, but it has not. This is an exploratory study using the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports data on homicide and the FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports merged with data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census to examine predictors of nonmetropolitan and metropolitan homicide rates and to consider the implications of these findings. Although homicides display some general patterns across the United States, rural-urban differences modify the typical attributes of homicide incidents as well as the community dynamics of homicide rates. The analysis shows that models with very high predictive power in the largest metropolitan areas have much less success in accounting for homicide differences in the most rural areas.

INDUSTRIAL SHIFT, POLARIZED LABOR MARKETS AND URBAN VIOLENCE: MODELING THE DYNAMICS BETWEEN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND DISAGGREGATED HOMICIDE*

Industrial restructuring marks the removal of a manufacturing and production‐based economy in urban areas, which had served as a catalyst in concentrating disadvantage and polarizing labor markets since the 1970s. Although scholars have established a relationship between concentrated disadvantage — poverty, joblessness, racial residential segregation — and urban violence in cross‐sectional studies, this literature has yet to estimate whether economic restructuring contributed to the change in urban homicide over time. Modeling this relationship requires an analytical strategy that incorporates specific indicators of (race and gender) polarized labor markets, separate from indicators of urban disadvantage, on disaggregated homicides while taking into account the growing dependency of urban cities on formal social control (via police presence and rise in incarceration). In this study I provide a theoretical rationale for linking industrial restructuring to urban homicide. Using a multivariate strategy to capture the shift in labor market forces and disaggregated homicides from 1980 to 1990, I also estimate the impact of this relationship. The results provide evidence of the industrial ship and documents both the decline in Manufacturing jobs for black males and black females and a growth in the service sector opportunities for white males only. I also find that industrial restructuring had a unique impact on disaggregated homicide beyond what has previously been established in cross‐sectional studies.

The political economy of urban homicide: assessing the relative impact of gender inequality on sex-specific victimization.

This research examines the ways in which the changing political economy of urban areas has contributed differently to the homicide victimization rates of females and males across US cities. Recent research, while relatively limited, has presented disparate results regarding the effect of gender inequality on urban sex-specific victimization. Our work further explores this relationship by taking into account relative gender disparities in income, education, labor market opportunities, and politics in an examination of sex-specific homicide victimization in 1990. Key to this current investigation is the evaluation of feminist and lifestyle arguments that suggest that structural gender inequality has a unique effect on female victimization. Overall, our findings reveal gender inequality to be a significant predictor of both male and female urban homicide. While these findings suggest mixed support for theoretical arguments regarding gender inequality, further analyses reveal significant differences in specific types of gender inequality on victimization patterns across genders. These additional results highlight the need for greater attention toward both methodological and theoretical issues when examining the interconnections between gender, political economy, and violence in research.

A Move Toward Specificity: Examining Urban Disadvantage and Race-and Relationship-Specific Homicide Rates

The purpose of this research is to estimate the differential impact of structural conditions on race- and relationship-specific homicide rates for U.S. cities in 1990. The structural conditions commonly employed in race-specific homicide research are examined, such as job accessibility, economic deprivation, racial segregation, and racial inequality. Furthermore, four relationship categories of homicide—acquaintance, family, stranger, and intimate—are disaggregated by racial group. The detailed relationship-specific homicide rates are compared to a baseline homicide rate to determine whether structural factors associated with urban disadvantage similarly influence homicide rates across relationship types. The results indicate that differences emerge in the impact of structural conditions on homicides disaggregated by race- and relationship-specific categories. Theoretical explanations consistent with criminology and race-relations literature are discussed, as well as the potential benefits and implications for studies that pursue more meaningful and detailed classifications in homicide offending.

The Structural Context of Homicide: Accounting for Racial Differences in Process

Previous research demonstrates differences in the processes that generate black and white rates of criminal violence. Analyses of race-specific urban homicide offending rates for 1990 test the hypothesis that racially different effects occur because the crime-generating process itself is conditioned by the social situations of blacks and whites. Results show that when African Americans and whites have similar low levels of concentrated disadvantage, the effects of disadvantage and homeownership are relatively comparable. (Abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 2000. Copyright © 2000 by the American Sociological Association) African American Adult African American Offender African American Violence Black-White Comparison Caucasian Adult Caucasian Offender Caucasian Violence Urban Environment Urban Violence 1990s Homicide Rates Homicide Offender Structural-Cultural 06-04

The Structural Context of Homicide: Accounting for Racial Differences in Process

Previous research demonstrates differences in the processes that generate black and white rates of criminal violence. Analyses of race-specific urban homicide offending rates for 1990 test the hypothesis that racially different effects occur because the crime-generating process itself is conditioned by the social situations of blacks and whites. Results show that when African Americans and whites have similar low levels of concentrated disadvantage, the effects of disadvantage and homeownership are relatively comparable.

The Role of Juveniles in Urban Homicide

Youth homicide offending is now regarded as a threat to society at large and inner cities in particular. A leading explanation focuses on gangs, drugs, and guns as the nexus of contemporary youth violence. This study profiles juvenile homicide in one of the nation's largest cities, Houston, Texas, for the period of 1990 to 1994. Following Marvin Wolfgang's precedent, the authors summarize these homicide data in terms of demographic characteristics and victim-offender relationships. They then address the spatial distribution of lethal incidents. The authors find that gang-related killing is a relatively small proportion of all juvenile homicide offending. Also, juveniles are more likely than are adults to use firearms, commit homicide in public and outdoor locations, and engage in lethal violence in relation to other felony offending. The authors conclude with a discussion of criminal justice responses to juvenile violence.