Abstract
This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015). Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial panel regression techniques, we describe spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates and assess to what extent social disorganization can explain between-district variation in homicide trajectories. The results showed some variation in the pattern of homicide decline across districts, and less disorganized communities experienced earlier, more linear declines. However, we found no evidence to suggest that changes in social disorganization are associated with differences in the decline in homicide rates.
Highlights
This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015)
By assessing spatial-temporal patterns of homicide rates within a single city, we will be better able to understand the uniformity of the decline between districts, and disentangle the extent to which trends are driven by socio-economic structural transformations compared to other shared underlying factors (Tuttle et al, 2018)
We investigate the association between levels and change in social disorganization and homicide rate trends using random effects spatial panel regression (Elhorst, 2014)
Summary
This study aims to contribute to understanding urban spatial and temporal patterns of social disorganization and homicide rates in São Paulo, Brazil (2000–2015). Social disorganization refers to the process by which ecological conditions such as poverty, high residential mobility, and poor living conditions weaken community capacity to build ties and collectively regulate social norms (Kawachi et al, 1999; Sampson & Groves, 1989; Sampson et al, 1997) Despite this growing attention to variations in homicide declines in Latin American cities, few studies have assessed the extent of variation at smaller spatial units of analysis (Pereira et al, 2017). We explore variation in temporal patterns of homicide rates between districts in São Paulo, and assess to what extent trajectories can be explained by social disorganization
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