Urban Growth Boundary Research Articles

Urban design and public transportation – public spaces, visual proximity and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

ABSTRACT Walking distances conventionally define service areas for public transportation and urban growth boundaries for Transit-Oriented Development (TOD). Urban designers accordingly draw rings around transit stops and arrange transit-supportive land uses within 10-minute walksheds. This approach to TOD neglects processes of creating public spaces in visual proximity of transit stops. This paper proposes a methodology to analyze public spaces and looks at how commercialization and public space patterns unfold through viewsheds around transit stops. The results reveal amoebic TOD patterns of public spaces that are much smaller than conventional walking radii. This alternative viewshed approach can be helpful in designing TODs.

The Welfare Effects of Greenbelt Policy: Evidence from England

I measure the economic effects of greenbelts that prohibit new construction beyond a predefined urban fringe and therefore act as urban growth boundaries. I focus on England, where 13% of the land is designated as greenbelt land. I estimate a quantitative general equilibrium model that includes amenities, housing construction, a traffic congestion externality, agglomeration forces, productivity and household location choices. To identify causal effects of greenbelt land, I construct counterfactual greenbelts, use greenbelt land in 1973, or focus on areas within a km of greenbelt boundaries. Greenbelt policy appears to generate positive amenity effects, but also strongly reduces housing supply. I find the greenbelts seem to increase welfare, as the equivalent income increase of workers is 0.3% and land rents increase by about 6.5%. Whether greenbelts benefit workers critically depends on the presence of spillovers and greenbelt amenities.

Spatial Patterns and Driving Forces of Conflicts among the Three Land Management Red Lines in China: A Case Study of the Wuhan Urban Development Area

The delimitation of three land management red lines (LMRLs), which refers to urban growth boundaries (UGBs), ecological protection redlines (EPRs), and basic farmland protection zones (BFPZs), has been regarded as a control method for promoting sustainable urban development in China. However, in many Chinese cities, conflicts extensively exist among the three LMRLs in terms of spatial partitioning. This study clarifies the connotation of conflicts among the three LMRLs. Moreover, a red line conflict index (RLCI) is established to characterize the intensity of conflicts among the three LMRLs. The Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA) is used for a case study, in which the spatial patterns of the three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs (i.e., conflicts between EPRs and BFPZs, EPRs and UGBs, and UGBs and BFPZs) are analyzed through numerous spatial statistical analysis methods (including spatial autocorrelation, urban-rural gradient, and landscape pattern analyses). In addition, the driving forces of these conflicts are identified from the perspectives of natural physics, socioeconomic development, neighborhood, policy and planning using three binary logistic regression models. Results show that the conflicts between EPRs and BFPZs, EPRs and UGBs, and UGBs and BFPZs are mainly distributed on the edge of the WUDA, inside Wuhan’s third circulation line, and at the urban–rural transition zone, respectively. The patch of conflict between BFPZs and UGBs has the lowest aggregation degree, the highest fragmentation degree, and the most complex shape. Logistic regression results show that the combination and relative importance of driving factors vary in the three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs. In the conflict between EPRs and BFPZs, the distance to city centers is the most important influencing factor, followed by the proportion of ecological land and elevation. In the conflict between UGBs and EPRs, the proportion of construction land, the distance to city centers, and whether the land unit is within the scope of a restricted development zone are the three most important factors. The proportion of construction land, the distances to the Yangtze and Han Rivers, and the proportion of cultivated land significantly influence the conflict between UGBs and BFPZs. This study aids in our understanding of the causes and mechanisms of conflicts among the three LMRLs, and provides important information for the “integration of multi-planning” and land management in Wuhan and similar cities.

Predicting the expansion of urban boundary using space syntax and multivariate regression model

Urban boundaries (UBs) are of great significance for urban planners to constrain urban expansion and protect the surrounding rural landscapes. However, existing studies mainly focus on evaluating land use suitability and modeling land conversion; thus, the prediction of UBs is indistinct and often even failed. The current study presents an urban growth boundary model (UGBM) using space syntax and multivariate regression model. The UGBM is established on the basis of the location of UBs and regards the layout of traffic network as a crucial factor influencing the pattern of UBs. The independent variables of the multivariate regression model are obtained from morphological variables, and the dependent variable is the distance to the UBs. As the morphological variables are highly correlated with the aggregation degree of human activities and traffic flows and an overwhelming majority of human mobility is found inside the UBs, we assume that UBs can be predicted using such variables to extend the UBs from urban physical development to contain the dimension of human mobility and activities. The simulation of UBs in the fast-growing town of Cotton Lake in Guangdong, southern China, was implemented. We compare the UB simulation of the proposed UGBM with a null UGBM without incorporating predictor variables. The results show that the proposed UGBM performs better than the null UGBM using quantity and location metrics of percent area match. We argue that space syntax has a great potential in simulating the expansion of UBs.

Monitoring 3D Building Change and Urban Redevelopment Patterns in Inner City Areas of Chinese Megacities Using Multi-View Satellite Imagery

Inner-city redevelopment is regarded as an effective way to promote land-use efficiency and optimize land-use structure, especially with the establishment of urban growth boundaries in Chinese cities. However, inner-city redevelopment as compared to urban sprawl has been rarely monitored in 2D space, let alone in 3D space. Therefore, in this paper, a novel approach to generate time-series 3D building maps (i.e., building footprint and height) based on high-resolution (2 m) multi-view ZY-3 satellite imagery was proposed. In the proposed method, the building footprint was updated by an object-based image-to-map change detection method, which employed spectral (i.e., HSV and NDVI) and structural features (i.e., morphological building index) to extract non-building and building objects, respectively; building height was estimated automatically through semi-global matching of multi-view images. We applied the proposed method to four representative Chinese megacities, i.e., Beijing, Xi’an, Shanghai, and Wuhan, for the period 2012–2017, and detected building footprints with overall accuracies ranging from 84.84% to 97.60%. The building height estimation was also relatively accurate, with the bias, slope, and root-mean-square error being −0.49–2.30 m, 0.93–1.10 m, and 4.94–7.31 m, respectively. Our results show that the total building coverage decreased over the study period, accompanied by an increase in both area-weighted building height and floor area ratio. In addition, compact low-rise buildings have been replaced by open high-rise buildings in the urban redevelopment process. Moreover, due to the scattered spatial distribution of the redevelopment sites, the local spatial aggregation patterns of building density are unlikely to shift between hotspots (i.e., spatial aggregation of high values) and coldspots (i.e., spatial aggregation of low values).

Application and Validation of a Municipal Administrative Area Spatial Zoning Model in Village-Town System Planning

The overall planning of urban and rural areas is the focus of municipal administrative area (MAA) planning in the process of economic globalization, and village-town system planning is the key to the overall planning of urban and rural areas. Based on the theory of spatial equilibrium and economic logic, an objective municipal administrative area spatial zoning model (M-MSZ) was constructed in our previous study. The M-MSZ model can provide guidance in the planning of a village-town system. This paper takes a city in the south of Heilongjiang Province in China as an example and compares the M-MSZ model with six traditional MAA spatial zoning models (the urban growth boundary model, land use planning model, spatial governance zoning model, major MAA location, layout and planning model, development timing-order and zoning model, and scale and function zoning model) to verify the value and superiority of the M-MSZ model in the planning of a village-town system. The consistency Kappa values were 78.2%, 83.3%, 82.3%, 79.8%, 75.7%, and 83.9%, respectively, which means that the M-MSZ model was highly consistent with those comparison models. Meanwhile, the regression coefficient R2 is higher than that of the traditional spatial zoning models, which means that the objectivity of the M-MSZ model is higher than that of traditional models. The superiority of the M-MSZ model over the traditional MAA spatial zoning model lies not only in its capacity to grasp the core content of village-town system planning, but also in its capacity to unify the decentralized urban system planning models that are used for village-town system planning, while realizing the objectivity of a weight assignment. Its unified model structure, objective integrated model system, and high accuracy make the M-MSZ model capable of solving the key problems associated with village-town system planning, with many advantages, such as easy operation, high efficiency, good inheritance, low cost, and greater objectivity, detail, and accuracy. In addition, it can provide a reference for the development model of a MAA village-town system.

Land Use Management and Urban Land Expansion in Kabul: A Case Study of Rapid Urbanization

As a response to the challenge of rapid growth of urbanization and lack of reliable data for urban planning and management, especially in the developing countries, this paper evaluates land use change and urban spatial expansion, from 1970’s to 2018, in Kabul city, the capital of Afghanistan, using satellite images, field observation and socioeconomic data. The city is highly representative of Afghanistan’s rapid urbanization process. As the city rapidly expands, there are enormous challenges to the sustainable use of land and resources. The discussion covers the increase in rural-to-urban land conversion, the delineation of urban growth boundaries, urban upgrading, and the investigation of illegal construction. This study considers the aspects of urbanization and land management systems in Afghanistan. Efficient frames are outlined in Kabul for the following elements: governmental self-restraint and policy modification. The results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting linear sprawl along the main roads. The conclusion seeks to synthesize land-use interventions into an agenda for Kabul’s sustainable development which can also provide a reference for other cities in Afghanistan.

Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries

Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been adopted worldwide as a policy tool to control urban sprawl. However, the delineation of recently piloted UGBs in rapidly urbanizing areas of China has methodologically relied mainly on local officials’ personal willingness and urban planners’ work, thus lacking sufficient scientific evidence and reliable quantitative analysis. To fill this gap, this study simulates the spatial pattern of land use based on the CLUE-S model and land development suitability assessment. The principal advantage of this method lies in the innovative combination and effective balance of the central government’s dual requirements of arable land protection and intensive urban development in a rapidly urbanizing country. Moreover, we argue that the village collective—China’s rural land owners—should be treated in its entirety in land development policy-making, and we accordingly adjust the simulation results with village administrative boundaries in the UGB delineation to guarantee its effective implementation. Shenyang metropolis in Northeast China is taken as a case study. The results show that urban expansion and farmland shrinkage are two major features of future land use change in Shenyang; the most striking growth of urban land takes place mainly in the central city, especially in the northeast and southwest sectors. Despite slight variations in the growth rate, predominating directions, main sources, and ecological effects, urban development in Shenyang shows quite similar patterns under different development scenarios. Therefore, UGBs delineated on the basis of these scenarios are almost identical in the basic outline, with changes only in marginal areas. This novel method is proven to be effective in delineating UGBs in urbanizing China and has referential significance for urban growth management in other developing countries.

Socioeconomic Impact of Establishment of University of Embu on Small Scale Farmers in Nthambo Sub-Location, Kenya


 
 
 
 The University of Embu is one of the fast developing and recently chartered University in Kenya. It is located in Nthambo sub-location, which is an agricultural potential area. Universities establishment have considerable influence on the activities of community that stays around it. Despite the fact that several studies have been conducted on the socioeconomic impact of establishment of different Universities to the community they reside in, a research on the socioeconomic impact of establishment of University of Embu on small scale farmers in their agricultural activities have never been done. Given that the University of Embu has been established on the agricultural potential area, this study sought to investigate the impact of the establishment of University of Embu on agricultural resources and productivity, describe the community diversity and living standards of the community. Methodology used in this research was descriptive survey design and stratified random sampling technique obtaining a sample of 100 households which was proportionate to the population. Using SPSS software for cross-tabulation, the results indicated that: the rate of both livestock and crop production have been declining with supporting evidence of (60.2%) and (66%) of the households respectively, the community was diverse (87.2%) with majority being university students (68.1%), most of the small scale farmers had access to electricity connection (78.1%), even though farming activity remains main economic activity of community within the area, it has been declining from (95.3%) to (53.2%), business activities have increased from (3.5%) to (41.5%), most of the households (54.3%) have constructed rental houses majorly to earn more money (70.2%). The researchers recommend that Embu County government should adopt a policy such that the communities surrounding University of Embu must develop, implement and enforce mechanisms for effective preservation of productive agricultural land (i.e. Urban growth boundaries, purchase of development rights, exclusive agricultural zoning among others).
 
 
 
 

Bringing conservation priorities into urban growth simulation: An integrated model and applied case study of Hangzhou, China

A green infrastructure assessment (GIA)-constrained cellular automata (CCA) model was developed to integrate habitat preservation with spatial-temporal simulation and the corresponding establishment of an urban growth boundary (UGB). A case study of the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area successfully demonstrated the application of the GIA-CCA model. Multitemporal land use maps interpreted from remotely sensed images taken in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were utilized for validation and UGB prediction for 2020. The GI scenario incorporating the ecological network and a baseline scenario (BS) involving a current growth trend of no environmental constraint were designed to further investigate the unique advantages of the GIA-CCA model over the CCA model. Comparative analysis with groups of landscape metrics indicated that the GI scenario improved the connectivity among ecological elements, reducing urban fragmentation and promoting growth compactness, yet many irregular forms of edge sprawl and main city expansion were observed under the BS. Based on the GI scenario, the final UGBs were established, covering the central city, six new cities and nine towns. In contrast to the proposed UGBs, the planned UGBs generated by economic policies might play a negative role in preserving natural resources and responding to development uncertainties and could be improved by considering the forecasted results based on the GIA-CCA model as a helpful decision-making tool. The model could become an increasingly important part of growth management, particularly for developing countries and regions that are exposed to environmental deterioration due to rapid urbanization.

Impact of an urban growth boundary across the entire house price spectrum: The two-stage quantile spatial regression approach

This study provides evidence for the impact of an urban growth boundary (UGB) on house prices. The study employs a two-stage quantile spatial regression method on a dataset that inventories sales transactions of single-family houses within two miles of either side of the eastern boundary of the primary UGB in King County, Washington. The results show that while the UGB decreases house prices across the entire house price spectrum, the impact is uneven; it is most pronounced for houses in the 5th to 8th decile of prices. These findings should encourage policy makers to adopt sub-housing-market-level policy approaches to address UGB and other urban and regional development policies’ potential impacts on house prices.

Simulating urban growth boundaries using a patch-based cellular automaton with economic and ecological constraints

ABSTRACTUrban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been applied in many rapid urbanizing areas to alleviate the problems of urban sprawl. Although empirical research has stressed the importance of ecological protection in UGB delineation, existing UGB models lack a component for the assessment of ecologically sensitive areas. To address this problem, we develop an innovative method that is capable of simulating UGB alternatives with economic and ecological constraints. Our method employs a patch-based cellular automaton (i.e. SA-Patch-CA) for simulating future urban growth, constrained by the ecological protection areas produced by an agent-based land allocation optimization model (AgentLA). The delineation of UGBs is also based on the estimated future urban land demand derived from support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method is applied in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. Three scenarios are designed to represent different objectives of future industrial transitions. The results indicate that increasing the shares of low energy consumption industries and tertiary industries can effectively reduce urban land demand. By overlapping the simulations, we found that the areal agreement of the simulated UGBs among the three scenarios accounts for approximately 88% of the total area. These areas can then be considered as the primary locations for establishing the UGBs.

A Spatial Zoning Model of Municipal Administrative Areas Based on Major Function-Oriented Zones

The multi planning contradictions and maladjustment of spatial management that evolved from an unbalanced development are becoming increasingly serious in China; therefore, it is imperative to know how to coordinate spatial planning. The scientific division of spatial unit attributes and the identification of ecological–agricultural production–living spaces (EPLs) have become the key scientific problems of this period. The existing urban structure zoning model, the urban growth boundary model, and the function-oriented zoning model show three main shortcomings: the difficult data acquisition and the large limitation of the application because of their high requirements of the related parameters, strong subjective weight setting, and lack of comprehensive zoning in the EPLs practice. This paper builds a quantitative and easily operated model for the spatial zoning of municipal administrative areas (MAA) based on the existing spatial equilibrium model for regional development. Three representative cities in China were modeled empirically with this model and the results were compared with those obtained by the existing models. We investigated the image consistency of this model to the three existing models where the Kappa values were 85.9%, 88.2%, and 85.2%, respectively, with an average of 86.4%. This showed that the model could reduce the data limitation and expand the scope of the application while ensuring the accuracy of the model’s analysis results. Meanwhile, the EPLs zoning was clearer, which made the spatial plan coordination more efficient and scientific. Overall, this model could not only solve the problem of the EPLs zoning and spatial plan coordination in MAA, but also guide urban land use planning from two dimensions of space and time and effectively promote the coordination and sustainable development of spatial planning.

The history of urban growth management in South Africa: tracking the origin and current status of urban edge policies in three metropolitan municipalities

ABSTRACTFor many cities in the Global South, colonialism played a dominant role in shaping their urban form. The historical objective of planning in colonial mother-cities was dealing with poor health and living conditions, therefore a planning approach similar to that followed in post-war Britain would appear beneficial in post-colonial cities, characterized by environmental and physical infrastructure unable to cope with massive population growth. Urban growth management is a discourse born in an attempt to control the growing industrial city in the early twentieth century, and in recent years applied through instruments such as urban edges or growth boundaries to limit urban sprawl and encourage higher density urban development. In South Africa, the principles of compaction and urban growth management formed part of the post-apartheid planning agenda towards transforming the inefficient and fragmented landscape inherited from separate spatial development. Consequently, urban edges and urban growth boundaries formed key components of municipal spatial planning frameworks since the early 2000s. The purpose of this paper is to explore the origin and status of urban edges in three metropolitan municipalities in South Africa to aid in understanding of these spatial instruments in the south.

The border effect on urban land expansion in China: The case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Since the seminal contribution of McCallum (1995), border study has been introduced to broader fields. However, it’s still a puzzle that how administrative boundaries affect the process of urban land expansion. In this study, we develop the Stage Model of Border Effect on urban land expansion based on Core-Periphery Theory and divide the evolutive process of border effect into four stages: the invisibility stage of administrative boundaries, the differentiation stage of administrative boundaries, the channelization stage of administrative boundaries and the evaporation stage of administrative boundaries. In the model, urban land distribution of different cities in urban agglomeration is in high-level balance after the evolution which is from low-level equilibrium to none-equilibrium state during the invisibility stage and the evaporation stage. Then, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is fully studied based on conditionalβconvergence analysis. Research results show that the model is well adapted to empirical study and evolutive process of border effect on urban land expansion in the region experienced the invisibility stage of administrative boundaries, the differentiation stage of administrative boundaries and the channelization stage of administrative boundaries from 1990 to 2010. We also find that the wider the gap between cities of different administrative ranks is, the larger the border effect tends to be. When border effects of different cities are equal and measure results are “1″, process of urban land expansion enter the evaporation stage of administrative boundaries. Additionally, impact of boundaries on urban land expansion is a long-term and cumulative process. The longer the research period is, the more significant the border effect tends to be. These findings can serve as basis of theoretical support and policy recommendations in breaking restriction of boundaries, delimiting the urban growth boundary and contributing to the rational expansion of urban land.

Assessment of Small Towns’ Fitness around China’s Major Cities: A Case Study in Wuhan City

As China increases its pace of urbanization, urban areas achieve rapid development by snatching resources from small towns that suffer persistent outflow of resources and anemic growth. Consequently, this trend is likely to destroy the foundation of urbanization and structural equilibrium of sustainable development. Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems (CAS), this paper held that the changes above were results of the small towns’ making adaptive adjustments to their internal structures according to external environments. To assess the fitness values of the small towns around major cities in China, this study analyzed Wuhan city and its peripheral towns from the ‘fitness’ perspective using the NK model. Meanwhile, the “space-function” coupled mode was introduced to analyze the development features of these small towns at different fitness levels. On this basis, spatial autocorrelation was employed to reveal the spatial patterns of the small towns around Wuhan according to their fitness values. Besides, the locally optimal paths of eight different types of combinations to evolve fitness were identified based on the NK computation results. The findings indicate positive correlations between the fitness values of small towns around major cities and the number of dominant factors. Apart from this, there exists a hierarchical clustering structure in the region of the major city which is bounded by urban growth boundary based on the fitness values of small towns. Also, spatial restructuring, the path to closer interaction with peripheral adaptive agents and effective resource integration in a greater scope, should be given priority to improve the adaptability of small towns. Additionally, the small towns should shift toward the function-oriented pattern that emphasizes specialization from the conventional centralized clustering structure to go with the tide of regional specialization and transformation in urban areas and realize their regional value.

A neural network and landscape metrics to propose a flexible urban growth boundary: A case study

Urban sprawl is a major barrier for the precise demarcation of administrative boundary in the world. In India, medium and small towns have so far developed outside the envisaged planning, resulting in a leapfrog and haphazard growth. This paper has attempted to simulate the spatial extent of urban expansion and boundary demarcation for the purpose of efficient urban planning and land resource management. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and a set of landscape metrics were used to delineate the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) and characterize the future patterns of growth in Siliguri Municipal Corporation (SMC, India). In particular, two urban boundaries – namely, Urban Hard Boundary (UHB) and Urban Soft Boundary (USB) – were simulated. The results suggest a USB with the area of 123 km2 to address the basic service delivery and a UHB with the area of 211.88 km2 to manage the ecological fragmentation.

Urban spatial growth model as a tool to plan for sustainable urban future

Much has been said about planning for sustainable urban future. However, it is difficult to find practical and workable solution to ensure the sustainability of urban development. Malaysia for example, is one of the most urbanized countries in East Asia, however; Kuala Lumpur urban area is one of the largest in the region as measured by area but the least dense in East Asia. This is due to the expansion of urban area is not properly controlled. The aim of this paper is to propose an urban growth boundary as a planning mechanism to plan for sustainable urban development. Taking the George Town Conurbation as the study area, this paper demonstrated the application of spatial temporal model of urban growth that can simulate future urban spatial growth. Land use data obtained from the Federal Department of Town and Country Planning (FDTCP) will be used as sources of the data. The model will be developed using ArcGIS software and simulated using Idrisi Kilimanjaro software. Then, based on land demand and land suitability, future urban spatial growth will be planned within urban growth boundary. Such as approach allows land demand to be allocated in a sustainable manner. The model will be useful in planning for future urban spatial growth.

Exploring the Interactive Development between Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization: Evidence from Chongqing, China (1998–2016)

To promote regional sustainable urbanization strategies, this paper selected the population and land resources in the urbanization system, and used the time series-based econometric analysis method and the coordinated development degree model to empirically study the interactive relationship between population urbanization (PU) and land urbanization (LU) in Chongqing, China, from 1998 to 2016. The research results showed that: (1) The development of urbanization in Chongqing was relatively rapid, but the level of development was relatively insufficient. The phenomenon of population outflow during urban development was more serious, and the structure of land use irrational; (2) There was a long-term cointegration relationship between PU and LU; PU is the Granger cause of LU. A PU increase of 1% in the short-term will promote LU by 3.29%, and in the long-term will promote 2.28%; the contribution of population agglomeration to urbanization is more than 80%, while land expansion is only about 20%, and the urban development model, which relies on urban land expansion is not applicable; (3) LU was faster than PU, but the improvement of PU development’s quality level was greater than that of LU. The development quality of both systems increased year by year, and gradually developed into a coordinated state. It is recommended that the government strengthen land planning, delineate urban growth boundaries, and increase the level of land intensive use; furthermore, through the reformation of the land finance and the household registration systems, a system for linking population, finance, and construction land should be established to promote the coordinated development of the two systems.

Delineating multi-scenario urban growth boundaries with a CA-based FLUS model and morphological method

Urban growth boundaries (UGBs) have been commonly regarded as a useful tool for controlling urban sprawl. There is a need to create models that can establish plausible UGBs for fast growing regions. Previous methods have merely focused on establishing a single UGB scenario over different time intervals, but rarely considered the influences of macro policy (e.g., future urban demand) and spatial policy (e.g., master plan) for regional planning. However, the spatial patterns of urban expansion are significantly affected by regional planning. In this paper, a CA-based method called the future land use simulation (FLUS) is applied to the delineation of UGBs. We argue that the delineation needs to integrate the top-down approach with CA for projecting complex land use changes under designed scenarios. The system dynamics model (SD) and cellular automaton model (CA) were interactively coupled in the FLUS model during the projection period. The top-down SD is used to project scenarios that relate to macro policy and socioeconomic status, and the bottom-up CA accounts for urban growth simulations under the influence of different driving factors and spatial planning policies. A morphological technology based on erosion and dilation is further proposed to generate the UGBs from the FLUS model’s simulated urban forms. The proposed UGB-FLUS model was applied to the establishment of UGBs in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD) from 2020 to 2050. The results demonstrate that the method can support urban planning by generating feasible patterns for UGBs under different planning scenarios.