Abstract
The delimitation of three land management red lines (LMRLs), which refers to urban growth boundaries (UGBs), ecological protection redlines (EPRs), and basic farmland protection zones (BFPZs), has been regarded as a control method for promoting sustainable urban development in China. However, in many Chinese cities, conflicts extensively exist among the three LMRLs in terms of spatial partitioning. This study clarifies the connotation of conflicts among the three LMRLs. Moreover, a red line conflict index (RLCI) is established to characterize the intensity of conflicts among the three LMRLs. The Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA) is used for a case study, in which the spatial patterns of the three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs (i.e., conflicts between EPRs and BFPZs, EPRs and UGBs, and UGBs and BFPZs) are analyzed through numerous spatial statistical analysis methods (including spatial autocorrelation, urban-rural gradient, and landscape pattern analyses). In addition, the driving forces of these conflicts are identified from the perspectives of natural physics, socioeconomic development, neighborhood, policy and planning using three binary logistic regression models. Results show that the conflicts between EPRs and BFPZs, EPRs and UGBs, and UGBs and BFPZs are mainly distributed on the edge of the WUDA, inside Wuhan’s third circulation line, and at the urban–rural transition zone, respectively. The patch of conflict between BFPZs and UGBs has the lowest aggregation degree, the highest fragmentation degree, and the most complex shape. Logistic regression results show that the combination and relative importance of driving factors vary in the three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs. In the conflict between EPRs and BFPZs, the distance to city centers is the most important influencing factor, followed by the proportion of ecological land and elevation. In the conflict between UGBs and EPRs, the proportion of construction land, the distance to city centers, and whether the land unit is within the scope of a restricted development zone are the three most important factors. The proportion of construction land, the distances to the Yangtze and Han Rivers, and the proportion of cultivated land significantly influence the conflict between UGBs and BFPZs. This study aids in our understanding of the causes and mechanisms of conflicts among the three LMRLs, and provides important information for the “integration of multi-planning” and land management in Wuhan and similar cities.
Highlights
Urbanization is a profound change in human society in the 21st century
The preliminary results show that conflicts between ecological protection redlines (EPRs) and basic farmland protection zones (BFPZs), and between EPRs and urban growth boundaries (UGBs) are the main types of conflicts among the three land management red lines (LMRLs), and the conflicts between UGBs and BFPZs are relatively few
The values of the percentage correct predictions of each model range between 71.4% and 72.3%; the area under the curve values reach 0.74–0.85, and Nagelkerke’s R2 values are all greater than 0.23. These statistics indicate that the three binary logistic regression models can properly explain the processes of all three types of conflicts among the three LMRLs
Summary
Urbanization is a profound change in human society in the 21st century. Over half of the world’s population currently lives in towns and cities, and the projected urban population will swell to 5 billion by 2030 [1]. Large-scale cultivated land and natural areas are occupied, which will cause damage to food supplies and ecological security [5,6,7]. Coordinating relations among construction land, cultivated land, and ecological land is pivotal for sustainable urban development [8,9]. Protecting sufficient amounts of cultivated land and natural areas has become essential, and a matter of worldwide concern with regard to urban land policies in recent years [10,11]
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