Uranium Prices Research Articles

Economy of uranium resources in a three-component reactor fleet with mixed thorium/uranium fuel cycles

The potential for minimizing uranium consumption by using a reactor fleet with three different components and mixed thorium/uranium cycles has been investigated with a view to making nuclear power a more sustainable and cleaner means of generating energy. Mass flows of fissile material have been calculated from burnup simulations at the core-equivalent assembly level for each of the three components of the proposed reactor fleet: plutonium extracted from the spent fuel of a standard pressurized water reactor (first component) is converted to 233U in an advanced boiling water reactor (second component) to feed a deficit of multi-recycled 233U needed for the Th/ 233U fuel of the light/heavy water reactor (third component) which has a high breeding ratio. Although the proposed fleet cannot breed its own fuel, we show that it offers the possibility for substantial economy of uranium resources without the need to resort to innovative (and costly) reactor designs. A very high fleet breeding ratio is achieved by using only currently existing water-based reactor technology and we show that such three-component systems will become economically competitive if the uranium price becomes sufficiently high (>300 $/kg). Another major advantage of such systems is a corresponding substantial decrease in production of plutonium and minor actinide waste.

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Fuel Cycle Technologies for the National Energy Security Enhancement in the Electricity Sector

Energy security, in the 21st century, draws significant attention in most countries worldwide, because the national security and sustainable development depend largely on energy security. The anticipated fossil energy depletion and the instability of their supply drive many countries to consider nuclear energy as their alternative energy source for the enhancement of their national energy security. In this study, indicators measuring the level of energy security in the electric power sector are developed and applied for the assessment of the effectiveness of four electric power system schemes which deploy different nuclear fuel cycle technologies, with consideration for the diversification of the energy markets and the vulnerability to economic disruption. Results show that the contribution of the closed fuel cycle scheme is larger than the once-through fuel cycle scheme in the perspective of energy security. In addition, the completely closed fuel cycle with the spent fuel recycling enhances the national energy security to the maximum extent compared to all other fuel cycle schemes. Since a completely closed fuel cycle is hardly affected by the uranium price changes, this scheme is found to be the most favorable scheme, ensuring the stable profit of utilities and stabilizing the electricity tariff. In addition, the completely closed fuel cycle scheme provides the best enhancement of national energy security with respect to energy supply, under reasonable price conditions. The indicators developed in this study can be utilized as a useful instrument for the measurement of the level of the energy security, especially by the countries importing energy resources for the generation of electric power.

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied.

Assessment of the effectiveness of mixed uranium-plutonium fuel in VVÉR

An assessment of the cost-effectiveness of burning mixed uranium-plutonium fuel in VVER reactors is made as a function of the price of natural uranium. It is shown that for the present price structure, based on the main technological processes used for fabricating fuel, mixed fuel becomes cost-effective when the price of natural uranium is about $300/kg. The results of systems investigations of the development of nuclear power in our country with an orientation toward fast reactors are also presented. In this case, the systems price of plutonium at the stage where fast reactors are first introduced increases. This indicates that the growth prospects must be taken into account in order to develop an efficient fuel-use strategy.

Economic Evaluation of Dual Purpose Desalination Plants by Fuel Type in Korea

In light of the recent rapid increase in the fossil fuel prices it is meaningful to evaluate the impact of these price changes in the economics of dual-purpose desalination projects producing electricity and fresh water simultaneously. The price of crude oil and LNG has increased by about 200% and 100% during the past three or four years. The uranium price has also increased by nearly 500% during the same period. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and compare the economics of SMART (System-integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor) which is being developed as a small size PWR type and the LNG Combine Cycle coupled with MED (Multi-Effect Distillation) which are being acknowledged as promising energy sources for the future in Korea. The methods of analysis used in this paper are the lifetime levelized cost method for the power and water cost calculation and the power credit method for the total cost allocation. DEEP (Devaluation Economic Evaluation Program) developed by IAEA was used to perform an economic comparison between the two dual-purpose desalination projects. From the results of the analysis it is found that the desalination by SMART-MED is much superior to that of LNG CC-MED under the current economic and technical situations. It is also shown that the relative superiority of SMART-MED to LNG CC-MED will be maintained even in case where an increase in the uranium price and the SMART construction cost would reach a maximum in the sensitivity analysis. In the case that the discount rate declines to 5% per year, the relative attractiveness of SMART-MED which is a capital intensive plant will be enhanced when compared to that for a 7% discount rate. In addition to this, it is thought that a nuclear energy source will be favored much more than now in the field of desalination if the regulations for the emission of greenhouse gases are to be strengthened.

How and when 4thGeneration Nuclear Systems could Deploy?

Fast reactors exhibit two major advantages over classical thermal reactors: sustainability and waste minimization. The deployment of 4th generation nuclear reactors depends on economical, industrial and political issues. We feel that the waste radiotoxicity reduction argument, although very crucial and socially sensitive, could not by itself justify implementing a new reactor system including a dedicated reprocessing scheme. But the foreseen tension of the uranium market may urge on developing fast reactor systems. Putting aside politics, we tentatively try to answer a very simple question: At which uranium price will it be economically competitive to build a fast reactor instead of a light water one? The levelized cost of nuclear electricity is analyzed and split into its different components (investment, fuel supply, fuel cycle, etc…). Assuming some minimal and reasonable hypotheses, fast reactors costs are compared with light water ones. The uranium price necessary to compensate for the higher investment cost of fast reactors is then deduced. One major conclusion that can be drawn from our study may be summarized as follows: if the uranium market price maintains its present level for a long period of time, fast reactors are already today an economically attractive option.

EXTECH IV: Geology and Uranium EXploration TECHnology of the Proterozoic Athabasca Basin, Saskatchewan and Alberta.: C. W. JEFFERSON and G. DELANEY, Editors. Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin 588, Saskatchewan Geological Society Special Publication 18, and Mineral Deposits Division of the Geological Association of Canada Special Publication 4. 645 Pp. 2007. Report and CD-ROM. ISBN 978-0-660-19492-9. Price Can$70 in Canada; Can$91

The Mineral Deposits Division of the Geological Association of Canada, the Geological Survey of Canada, the Saskatchewan Geological Society, and, in particular, the editors of this volume (Jefferson and Delaney) are to be congratulated on their efforts and timing to bring together the research results of EXTECH IV at a time of dramatic resurgence in global uranium exploration. So often the final published results of interagency multidisciplinary projects of this magnitude languish for years after termination of their funding and in the end the outcomes are typically dispersed as graduate theses archived in universities and as individual papers submitted across a variety of geoscience journals. To have brought together the results of this four-year-long interagency, multidisciplinary study so quickly and thoroughly after the termination of the EXTECH IV funding is a significant accomplishment by the sponsoring agencies and the editors. To set the stage for the importance of this volume, a little background on the state of uranium within the geologic community probably is required. Since the early 1980s, uranium exploration has been in the doldrums, with the spot price for uranium dropping below US$9 per lb by the mid-1990s and exploration expenditures nearly dropping off the radar screen in terms of overall global exploration. It is only in the last few years that uranium prices have seen dramatic increases exceeding US$130 per lb by mid-2007. Prior to this recent surge in the price of uranium, it is not surprising that the wider geologic community and academia had largely neglected research on uranium deposits and their environs during the past 25 years. Nevertheless, a few research centers, funded through collaborations with the rather small fraternity of uranium explorers, kept the flame of research going during this period. These results have been typically held as proprietary by the companies or dispersed …

Update on Uranium Availability; Current and Forecast Mine Production and the Resources Issue

During the past three years, uranium price followed a very fast rise, and this trend is continuing. What does it mean? Short term or long term tension, speculation, resources depletion signal?Because for many, “what is expensive is necessarily scarce”, updating our knowledge on the uranium market situation, likely future trend and prospects is essential.Fast economic growth in Asia, population increase, global warming issues are the main drivers of an already perceivable nuclear renaissance. The uranium resources availability is a key factor to define the future share of nuclear power, the reactor technology and the related fuel cycle.Three periods of time are identified and are requesting specific answers:- Near term; a period when nuclear power must show its ability to reliably address global power needs and global warming concerns- Long term; a period when nuclear power will ramp-up well beyond current capacity using mainly proven advanced LWR technology (Gen 3+)- Very long term; a period yet to be defined when nuclear power will ramp-up to very high capacity using a mix including a significant share of advanced Gen 4 reactors.After a detailed analysis of current supplies and today’s price signal interpretation, the content of this paper is aimed at addressing the following basic questions:- Near term uranium supply issues?- Uranium production ramp-up capability?- Long term Uranium Resources availability?To conclude, a discussion about future Nuclear Fuel security of supply according to various scenarios for the global nuclear power plant fleet will tentatively describe the uranium supply scene for the long run and show its adequacy.

Australia, uranium and nuclear power

The nuclear debate in Australia is shaped by the nation's substantial base of energy resources, including its large reserves of uranium and recent rises in the market price of uranium. But the debate also echoes Australia's past in the development of programs for nuclear weapons. The proposals include uranium enrichment, the storage of nuclear waste in Australia, and the introduction of nuclear reactors. A national inquiry has been instituted by the government. These developments, stemming from a range of factors, have revived the opposition to uranium mining and nuclear power which has for two decades held a dominant role in Australian politics. The issue of what should be Australia's energy path in a time of climate change is beginning to be examined. The importance of the decisions, whether to be a player in the nuclear club with its attendant multiple hazards, or to play a quite different leadership role in the development and adoption of sustainable energy strategies and technologies, cannot be exaggerated.

Mining the gap

Australia possesses nearly a quarter of the world's known recoverable uranium. With the price of uranium at a 15-year high, it's no wonderthe national government eagerly wants to ramp up production.

Comparison of sodium and lead-cooled fast reactors regarding reactor physics aspects, severe safety and economical issues

A large number of new fast reactors may be needed earlier than foreseen in the Generation IV plans. According to the median forecast of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios commissioned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control nuclear power will increase by a factor of four by 2050. The drivers for this expected boost are the increasing energy demand in developing countries, energy security, but also climate concerns. However, staying with a once-through cycle will lead to both a substantially increased amount of high-level nuclear waste and an upward pressure on the price of uranium and even concerns about its availability in the coming decades. Therefore, it appears wise to accelerate the development of fast reactors and efficient re-processing technologies. In this paper, two fast reactor systems are discussed—the sodium-cooled fast reactor, which has already been built and can be further improved, and the lead-cooled fast reactor that could be developed relatively soon. An accelerated development of the latter is possible due to the sizeable experience on lead/bismuth eutectic coolant in Russian Alpha-class submarine reactors and the research efforts on accelerator-driven systems in the EU and other countries. First, comparative calculations on critical masses, fissile enrichments and burn-up swings of mid-sized SFRs and LFRs (600 MW e) are presented. Monte Carlo transport and burn-up codes were used in the analyses. Moreover, Doppler and coolant temperature and axial fuel expansion reactivity coefficients were also evaluated with MCNP and subsequently used in the European Accident Code-2 to calculate reactivity transients and unprotected Loss-of-Flow (ULOF) and Loss-of-Heat Sink (ULOHS) accidents. Further, ULOFs as well as decay heat removal (protected Total Loss-of-Power, TLOP) were calculated with the STAR-CD CFD code for both systems. We show that LFRs and SFRs can be used both as burners and as self-breeders, homogeneously incinerating minor actinides. The tight pin lattice SFRs (P/D = 1.2) appears to have a better neutron economy than wide channel LFRs (P/D = 1.6), resulting in larger BOL actinide inventories and lower burn-up swings for LFRs. The reactivity burn-up swing of an LFR self-breeder employing BeO moderator pins could be limited to 1.3$ in 1 year. For a 600 MW e LFR burner, LWR-to-burner support ratio was about two for (U, TRU)O 2-fuelled system, while it increased to approximately 2.8 when (Th, TRU)O 2 fuel was employed. The corresponding figures for an SFR were somewhat lower. The calculations revealed that LFRs have an advantage over SFRs in coping with the investigated severe accident initiators (ULOF, ULOHS, TLOP). The reason is better natural circulation behavior of LFR systems and the much higher boiling temperature of lead. A ULOF accident in an LFR only leads to a 220 K coolant outlet temperature increase whereas for an SFR the coolant may boil. Regarding the economics, the LFR seems to have an advantage since it does not require an intermediate coolant circuit. However, it was also proposed to avoid an intermediate coolant circuit in an SFR by using a supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycle. But in an LFR, the reduced concern about air and water ingress may decrease its cost further.

“DOE awards funding to 24 nuclear energy projects”, “Will higher uranium prices restore domestic U. S. production”

“DOE awards funding to 24 nuclear energy projects”, “Will higher uranium prices restore domestic U. S. production”

The Economics of Reprocessing versus Direct Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel

We assess the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent fuel. The uranium price at which reprocessing spent fuel from light water reactors (LWRs) and recycling the resulting plutonium and uranium in LWRs would become economic is estimated for a range of reprocessing prices and other fuel cycle costs. The contribution of both fuel cycle options to the cost of electricity is also estimated. A similar analysis is performed to compare fast neutron reactors (FRs) with LWRs. We review available information about various fuel cycle costs, as well as the quantities of uranium likely to be recoverable at a range of future prices. We conclude that the once-through LWR fuel cycle is likely to remain significantly cheaper than recycling in either LWRs or FRs for at least the next 50 yr, even with substantial growth in nuclear power.

Towards a desalination initiative using cogeneration with an advanced reactor type and uranium recovered from Moroccan phosphoric acid production

Morocco is known to be among the first few countries to produce phosphate and phosphoric acid. Moroccan phosphate contains substantial amounts of uranium. This uranium can be recovered from the phosphate ore as a by-product during the production of phosphoric acid. Uranium extraction processes linked with phosphoric acid fabrication have been used industrially in some countries. This is done mainly by solvent extraction. Although, the present price of uranium is low in the international market, such uranium recovery could be considered as a side product of phosphoric acid production. The price of uranium has a very small impact on the cost of nuclear energy obtained from it. This paper focuses on the extraction of uranium salt from phosphate rock. If uranium is recovered in Morocco in the proposed manner, it could serve as feed for a number of nuclear power plants. The natural uranium product would have to be either enriched or blended as mixed-oxide fuel to manufacture adequate nuclear fuel. Part of this fuel would feed a desalination initiative using a high temperature reactor of the new generation, chosen for its intrinsic safety, sturdiness, ease of maintenance, thermodynamic characteristics and long fuel life between reloads, that is, good economy. Αn international cooperation based on commercial contract schemes would concern: the general project and uranium extraction; uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication services; the nuclear power plant; and the desalination plant. This paper presents the overall feasibility of the general project with some quantitative preliminary figures and cost estimates.

Review of the Western European breeder programs

Since the beginning of the nuclear era, breeder reactors were recognized as the best way to make use of uranium resources. In Europe, the early development of the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) was initiated in England and in France in the mid-50s. Two demonstration plants, the PFR in Scotland and Phénix in France, started operation in the mid-70s. The 1200 MWe commercial size LMFBR Superphénix, built and operated by an international consortium from France, Germany, and Italy, first reached full power in 1986. Besides electricity production and the demonstration of breeding gain, it is scheduled to test burning of plutonium and other actinides in a fast flux. Present European developments are now focused on the design of a commercial European fast reactor (the 1500 MWe EFR), which could become economically competitive with LWRs when the price of uranium has increased several times.

95/06079 The capitalist world aggregate supply and demand model for natural uranium

A seemingly unrelated regression associating U supply and demand to own price, net nuclear electric consumption, generating capacity, competing fuel prices, and electricity prices is postulated. Coal prices are found to influence uranium price significantly. Composite energy prices affect uranium demand via either nuclear electric consumption or nuclear generating capacity. Electricity prices affect uranium demand directly in a negative fashion.

The capitalist world aggregate supply and demand model for natural uranium

Seemingly unrelated regression associating U supply and demand to own price, net nuclear electric consumption, generating capacity, competing fuel prices, and electricity prices is postulated. Coal prices are found to influence uranium price significantly. Composite energy prices affect uranium demand via either nuclear electric consumption or nuclear generating capacity. Electricity prices affect uranium demand directly in a negative fashion.

Soft Landing for Bomb Uranium

As the superpowers dismantle their enormous arsenals, a major concern is the safe handling of the fissile material removed from nuclear warheads. This article discusses proposed solutions to the radioactive materials handling problem. The focus of this article is the February 18, 1993 U.S.-Russian agreement for the sale of about 500 tons of Russian bomb-grade material to the United States. Over a period of 20 years, this highly enriched uranium would be blended with natural uranium to produce low-enriched uranium suitable for use in conventional power reactors. This article describes the details of the agreement, which are still under negotiation. Arguments over economic issues, the price of uranium, and the distribution of revenues from the sale of the reactor fuel are cited as complications in the agreement. The sale of highly enriched uranium would be the first irreversible transfer of fissile material from the weapons complex to the commerical market. Implications of this transfer are outlined briefly.

Taxation in Niger: Problems and proposals

The tax structure in Niger depends heavily on uranium mining and the rest of the formal sector. The slump in uranium prices has reduced tax revenues to 9% of GNP, which is not enough to finance an adequate level of public services. In this paper, tax reforms are considered which will raise more revenue while respecting criteria of equity, efficiency, and growth. The reforms mostly involve extending taxation into the informal sector, such as using external indicators of income in the administration of the income tax, and making greater use of taxes on buildings and motor vehicles.

Future markets for uranium — a contribution to the debate

This article assesses the validity of some recent claims that the market for uranium is likely to improve substantially during the mid- and late-1990s. Drawing on a detailed study of western world uranium supply and demand during 1991–2000, it examines three key factors which affect uranium markets — installed nuclear generating capacity, the conversion of installed capacity to uranium demand, and the interaction between uranium demand and supply. It concludes that installed capacity is likely to rise very slowly during the 1990s, that any impact of rising tails assays on demand for uranium will be balanced by countervailing effects (particularly adoption of fuel-saving techniques), and that reduction in Western world uranium supply due to mine closures will be temporary and/or will be accompanied by increased exports from Eastern Europe. On this basis the article suggests that there is little likelihood of substantial real increases in uranium prices during the 1990s.