Future markets for uranium — a contribution to the debate

Abstract

This article assesses the validity of some recent claims that the market for uranium is likely to improve substantially during the mid- and late-1990s. Drawing on a detailed study of western world uranium supply and demand during 1991–2000, it examines three key factors which affect uranium markets — installed nuclear generating capacity, the conversion of installed capacity to uranium demand, and the interaction between uranium demand and supply. It concludes that installed capacity is likely to rise very slowly during the 1990s, that any impact of rising tails assays on demand for uranium will be balanced by countervailing effects (particularly adoption of fuel-saving techniques), and that reduction in Western world uranium supply due to mine closures will be temporary and/or will be accompanied by increased exports from Eastern Europe. On this basis the article suggests that there is little likelihood of substantial real increases in uranium prices during the 1990s.