Upward Propagation Of Planetary Waves Research Articles

Interannual Influence of Antarctic Sea Ice on Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling

AbstractWhile weakening of the boreal polar vortex may be caused by autumnal Arctic sea ice loss, less is known about the interannual influence of Antarctic sea ice on stratosphere‐troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Identifying any relationship over the short satellite period is difficult due to sampling variability and anthropogenic modification of the austral polar vortex. To circumvent these issues, we use large ensembles of fixed boundary condition simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to assess if and how interannual fluctuations in winter Antarctic sea ice influence spring planetary‐scale waves and the coupled stratosphere‐troposphere circulation. Low Antarctic sea ice conditions are found to modulate tropospheric stationary waves to project constructively onto the climatological stationary wave, enhancing upward planetary wave propagation into the austral polar stratosphere. In WACCM, the resulting vortex weakening coincides with development of negative Southern Annular Mode conditions during September–November.

Roles of Gravity Waves in Preconditioning of a Stratospheric Sudden Warming

AbstractAs well as strong upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere, the state of the stratospheric mean flow has been recognized as a key factor for the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). The modification of the mean flow to a suitable state for an SSW occurrence is called “vortex preconditioning.” Recently, increasing attention has been paid to the role of gravity waves (GWs) in the preconditioning mechanism. However, because of the limited availability of data sets covering the whole neutral atmosphere, much uncertainty still exists in the role of GWs in the preconditioning. The aim of this study is to investigate the mechanism of modification of the mean flow in the stratosphere and mesosphere before SSWs from a climatological viewpoint and elucidate the role of GWs in it. We use two state‐of‐the‐art data sets covering the whole neutral atmosphere: a 17‐year medium‐resolution reanalysis data set and the output data from hindcast simulations performed with a GW‐permitting general circulation model. It is shown that the second principal component of the zonal‐mean zonal wind in the stratosphere and mesosphere tends to show a maximum prior to an SSW, characterizing preconditioning. GW forcing alters the structure of the upper part of the jet and contributes to the preconditioning along with planetary waves. Comparison of GW forcing between the reanalysis and GW‐permitting model suggests that the magnitude of parameterized GW forcing is approximately half that of the GW forcing in the polar upper stratosphere where the forcing is responsible for the preconditioning.

Impacts of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Stratospheric Isentropic Mixing Process

The present study investigates the influences of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity of stratospheric isentropic mixing based on ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalysis products. It is found that isentropic mixing in the stratosphere is modulated by QBO and ENSO. An analysis of the QBO basis function in the multiple regression model reveals that isentropic mixing in the lower stratosphere is suppressed in the equatorial region in the WQBO phase, while the mixing enhances in the subtropical and mid-latitude regions. This result is not consistent with the Holton–Tan mechanism. However, isentropic mixing in the mid-latitudes becomes stronger in the middle stratosphere in the EQBO phase, which agrees well with the Holton–Tan effect. Composite analysis indicates that QBO-induced changes in the direction and speed of the stratospheric zonal wind can affect wave propagation and wave breaking. In the WQBO phase, zonal wind weakens, and a planetary wave is anomalously converging near 30°N, which leads to an increase in isentropic mixing; on the contrary, wind speed becomes large, and the upward propagation of planetary wave divergence, which lead to the isentropic mixing, becomes weak near 60°N. In the EQBO phase, the wind is relatively weak around 60°N, and the isentropic mixing is strong. Multiple regression analysis reveals the ENSO impact on the intensity of isentropic mixing, which shows weak mixing in the middle and high latitudes and strong mixing in the low latitudes of the lower stratosphere in the El Niño years. In the middle stratosphere, isentropic mixing enhances in the mid-latitude region due to intensified upward propagation of planetary waves but weakens in the polar region. Composite analysis reveals a clear relationship between the mixing strength zones of the El Niño and La Niña years with the position of the polar jet and changes in zonal wind speed.

Link between Arctic ozone and the stratospheric polar vortex

The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on earth by preventing solar ultraviolet radiation from reaching the surface. Owing to the large population in the Northern Hemisphere and extreme ozone loss in the Arctic, changes in Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and their causes have attracted broad attention recently. Using monthly mean data during the period 1980–2020 from MERRA-2, the relationship between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and ASO, along with the relative contributions of chemical and dynamic processes associated with the SPV to changes in ASO, were examined in this study. Results showed that the ASO in March has a strong out-of-phase link with the strength of the SPV in March, with no obvious lead–lag correlations, i.e., an increase (decrease) in ASO corresponds to a weakened (strengthened) SPV. Further analysis suggested that the strong out-of-phase link between the SPV and ASO is related to changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). Strong SPV events, accompanied by a low temperature condition and weakened upward propagation of planetary waves over the Arctic in the stratosphere, result in weakened BDC. The weakened downwelling at high latitudes tends to transport less ozone-rich air in the upper stratosphere at lower latitudes into the lower stratosphere at high latitudes, facilitating a decrease in ASO. The BDC's vertical velocity plays the dominant role in modulating ASO.摘要利用1980–2020年MERRA-2资料, 分析了平流层极涡 (Stratospheric polar vortex, SPV) 和北极臭氧 (Arctic stratospheric ozone, ASO) 的关系, 评估了与SPV相关的化学, 动力过程在其中的相对作用. 结果表明, 3月份ASO与同期SPV强度反相关最大. SPV-ASO二者反相关与平流层剩余环流 (Brewer-Dobson circulation, BDC) 变化密切相关. 强SPV伴随的北极平流层低温条件和行星波向上传播减弱, 导致BDC减弱, 减弱的BDC下沉支将低纬度平流层上层臭氧含量较低的空气输送到北极平流层低层, 从而导致ASO减少. BDC垂直速度在其中起主导作用.

Contributions of Early‐ and Middle‐Winter Perturbations at Higher Altitudes to Late‐Winter Anomalously Strong Arctic Polar Vortex in the Lower Stratosphere

AbstractBased on the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications Version 2 reanalysis, an upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM) disturbance in early January and a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in early February are both coincidentally captured preceding the anomalously strong polar vortex during the late boreal winters of 2010/2011 and 2019/2020. Our analysis indicates that planetary wave breaking during the USLM disturbance and SSW decelerates the westerly polar night jet (PNJ) in the upper stratosphere, which leads to a continuous downward and poleward propagation of the PNJ during the early and middle winter. As the peak height of the PNJ descends, the region with negative vertical wind shear and negative waveguides also extends downward and reaches an altitude of ∼40 km during the late winter, which significantly limits the upward propagation of planetary waves, inducing a stable polar vortex in the lower stratosphere. In addition, the transformed Eulerian mean diagnostic results based on the specified dynamics simulation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version confirm that the planetary wave‐induced downwelling is the main cause of the stratospheric warming during the two perturbations. More importantly, the simulation results indicate that the strength of the two upper stratospheric perturbations is appropriate to maintain the reflective configuration during the late winter, which suggests that such a specific sequence of perturbations during the early and middle winter, namely a USLM disturbance followed by a minor SSW, is favorable for the development of a late‐winter unusually strong Arctic polar vortex in the lower stratosphere.

The Role of Mid‐latitude Westerly Jet in the Impacts of November Ural Blocking on Early‐Winter Warmer Arctic‐Colder Eurasia Pattern

AbstractBased on statistical analysis using observations and idealized model simulations, previous studies have revealed the potential response of early‐winter atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies to November Ural blocking (UB) anomalies. Using a large number of coupled simulations, this study found that the response is sensitive to the intensity of November mid‐latitude westerly jet over Eurasia. Stronger‐than‐normal November UB without a significantly weakened westerly jet could not cause significant atmospheric response in early‐winter. By contrast, stronger‐than‐normal November UB with a significantly weakened jet would be followed by a warmer Arctic‐colder Eurasia (WACE) pattern in December. The significantly weakened westerly jet favors stronger upward propagation of planetary waves, which causes stronger weakening and longer persistence of the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists into December and propagates downward into the troposphere interfering with planetary waves (especially wavenumber‐1). The lead‐lag UB‐WACE linkage modulated by mid‐latitude jet may have implications for sub‐seasonal predictability.

Stationary wave biases and their effect on upward troposphere– stratosphere coupling in sub-seasonal prediction models

Abstract. The simulated Northern Hemisphere winter stationary wave (SW) field is investigated in 11 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models. It is shown that while most models considered can well simulate the stationary wavenumbers 1 and 2 during the first 2 weeks of integration, they diverge from observations following week 3. Those models with a poor resolution in the stratosphere struggle to simulate the waves, in both the troposphere and the stratosphere, even during the first 2 weeks. Focusing on the tropospheric regions where SWs peak in amplitude reveals that the models generally do a better job in simulating the northwestern Pacific stationary trough, while certain models struggle to simulate the stationary ridges in both western North America and the North Atlantic. In addition, a strong relationship is found between regional biases in the stationary height field and model errors in simulated upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere. In the stratosphere, biases are mostly in wave 2 in those models with high stratospheric resolution, whereas in those models with low resolution in the stratosphere, a wave 1 bias is evident, which leads to a strong bias in the stratospheric mean zonal circulation due to the predominance of wave 1 there. Finally, biases in both amplitude and location of mean tropical convection and the subsequent subtropical downwelling are identified as possible contributors to biases in the regional SW field in the troposphere.

Asymmetric impact of the Scandinavian pattern on stratospheric circulation anomalies

AbstractThis study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+events, but prior to SCA−events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+events and before the SCA−events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA−events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+events.

Analysis of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in November

AbstractThe factors responsible for the size of Antarctic ozone hole in November are analyzed. Comparing two samples of anomalously large and small November ozone hole with respect to 1980–2017 climatology in November, the results show that the anomalously large ozone hole in austral late winter is not a precondition for the anomalously large ozone hole in November. The size of Antarctic ozone hole in November is mainly influenced by dynamical processes from the end of October to mid-November. During large November ozone hole events, weaker dynamical ozone transport appears from the end of October to mid-November, which is closely related to planetary wave divergence in the stratosphere between 60°S and 90°S. Further analyses indicate that the wave divergence is partially attributed to less upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere, which is associated with weak baroclinic disturbances at the end of October. Subsequently, zonal wind speed in the upper stratosphere intensifies, and the distance between critical layer (U=0) and wave reflecting surfaces becomes larger. As a result, more planetary waves are reflected and then wave divergence enhances. The processes responsible for the anomalously small Antarctic ozone holes in November are almost opposite to those for the anomalously large Antarctic ozone holes.

Observational Evidence of Distinguishable Weather Patterns for Three Types of Sudden Stratospheric Warming During Northern Winter

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events often lead to a cold surface air temperature anomaly over the extratropical regions. In this study, we propose, through observational evidence, that the types of SSW determine the severity of the cold anomaly. Based on the three-type classification of SSW, it is found that the surface air temperature drops notably over central to eastern North America following an SSW-type transition, especially from displacement to split. Note, however, that the differences in mean surface air temperature anomalies between SSW types are not statistically significant, even though after SSW-type transition from displacement to split, surface air temperature anomalies are colder than the other two types. The development of an anomalous tropospheric ridge in the North Pacific Arctic sector, associated with the difference in the vertical and zonal propagation of planetary waves, characterizes the post-warming period of the displacement–split type. After the occurrence of the displacement–split type transition of SSW events, upward propagation of planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 1 is suppressed, whereas planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 2 increase in the troposphere. Accompanying the ridge in the North Pacific, a trough developed downstream over North America that carries cold polar air therein. The results in this study are relevant for the subseasonal time scale, within 20 days after an SSW occurrence.

The exceptionally strong and persistent Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in the winter of 2019–2020: 2019-2020冬季北半球超强极涡事件

The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex was exceptional strong, cold and persistent in the winter and spring of 2019–2020. Based on reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research and ozone observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, the authors investigated the dynamical variation of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter 2019–2020 and its influence on surface weather and ozone depletion. This strong stratospheric polar vortex was affected by the less active upward propagation of planetary waves. The seasonal transition of the stratosphere during the stratospheric final warming event in spring 2020 occurred late due to the persistence of the polar vortex. A positive Northern Annular Mode index propagated from the stratosphere to the surface, where it was consistent with the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices. As a result, the surface temperature in Eurasia and North America was generally warmer than the climatology. In some places of Eurasia, the surface temperature was about 10 K warmer during the period from January to February 2020. The most serious Arctic ozone depletion since 2004 has been observed since February 2020. The mean total column ozone within 60°–90°N from March to 15 April was about 80 DU less than the climatology.摘要2019-2020冬季北极平流层极涡异常并且持续的偏强,偏冷.利用NCEP再数据和OMI臭氧数据, 本文分析了此次强极涡事件中平流层极涡的动力场演变及其对地面暖冬天气和臭氧低值的影响.此次强极涡的形成是由于上传行星波不活跃.持续的强极涡使得2020年春季的最后增温出现时间偏晚.平流层正NAM指数向下传播到地面, 与地面AO指数和NAO指数相一致, 欧亚大陆和北美地面气温均比气候态偏暖, 在欧亚大陆的一些地区, 2020年1月和2月的气温甚至偏高了10K.2020年2月以来北极臭氧出现了2004年以来的最低值, 2020年3-4月60°–90°N的平均臭氧柱总量比气候态偏低了80DU.

A Nonlinear Multiscale Theory of Atmospheric Blocking: Eastward and Upward Propagation and Energy Dispersion of Tropospheric Blocking Wave Packets

AbstractIn this paper, a nonlinear multiscale interaction model is used to examine how the planetary waves associated with eddy-driven blocking wave packets propagate through the troposphere in vertically varying weak baroclinic basic westerly winds (BWWs). Using this model, a new one-dimensional finite-amplitude local wave activity flux (WAF) is formulated, which consists of linear WAF related to linear group velocity and local eddy-induced WAF related to the modulus amplitude of blocking envelope amplitude and its zonal nonuniform phase. It is found that the local eddy-induced WAF reduces the divergence (convergence) of linear WAF in the blocking upstream (downstream) side to favor blocking during the blocking growth phase. But during the blocking decay phase, enhanced WAF convergence occurs in the blocking downstream region and in the upper troposphere when BWW is stronger in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere, which leads to enhanced upward-propagating tropospheric wave activity, though the linear WAF plays a major role. In contrast, the downward propagation of planetary waves may be seen in the troposphere for vertically decreased BWWs. These are not seen for a zonally uniform eddy forcing. A perturbed inverse scattering transform method is used to solve the blocking envelope amplitude equation. It is found that the finite-amplitude WAF represents a modified group velocity related to the variations of blocking soliton amplitude and zonal wavenumber caused by local eddy forcing. Using this amplitude equation solution, it is revealed that, under local eddy forcing, the blocking wave packet tends to be nearly nondispersive during its growth phase but strongly dispersive during the decay phase for vertically increased BWWs, leading to strong eastward and upward propagation of planetary waves in the downstream troposphere.

North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Closely Associated With Spring Arctic Sea Ice Loss During 1998–2016

AbstractThe relative importance of the factors contributing to Arctic spring sea ice decline remains an open question. Here we suggest a new major factor. In spring the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) shows a significantly increasing trend during 1998–2016, in contrast to the insignificant trend of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. Nearly 40% of Arctic springtime sea ice concentration trend is statistically related to the increase of the NPGO index but only 4% to the PDO trend. Through the destructive linear interference with climatological Aleutian low, the increasing NPGO index tends to weaken the upward propagation of planetary waves, which enhances the strength of the stratospheric Arctic vortex and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The positive AO anomalies influence the surface wind field and temperature pattern anomalies, contributing to negative sea ice anomalies in the Arctic.

Modeling study of the destructive interference between the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific in their forcing in the southern winter extratropical stratosphere during ENSO

By conducting sensitivity experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, this study reveals the interference of the sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the southern winter stratosphere between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) during ENSO. Similar to the variance pattern of zonal-mean zonal winds with two maximum centers on both flanks of the southern polar night jet, the southern circumpolar zonal wind responses to TPO and TIO SST forcings also exhibit a dipole pattern, indicating their meridional shifting effect on the polar jet. However, a warm TPO SST favors an equatorward shift of the polar jet, while a warm TIO SST induces a poleward shift. This has resulted in an observed weaker ENSO signal in the southern winter stratosphere than that purely forced by the ENSO TPO SST. Further diagnosis indicates that the interference between the TIO and TPO is dynamically associated with the destructive interference of the wave train forced by the TIO with the Pacific–South America-like wave train pattern forced by the TPO. As a result, the southern extratropical wavenumber-1 response to the TPO is nearly out of phase with that to the TIO throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. While upward propagation of planetary waves is significantly suppressed in midlatitudes but enhanced in high latitudes when warm SST anomalies are confined over the TPO, the opposite pattern is observed when warm anomalies are confined over the TIO. Furthermore, the significant destructive interference between the TIO and TPO in their forcings in the southern winter stratosphere is also confirmed in reanalysis data.

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m): A Comparison with ECMWF

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF’s model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM (ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two (three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.

Key Role of the Ocean Western Boundary currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate

The individual impact of North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Western Boundary Currents (OWBCs) on the tropospheric circulation has recently been studied in depth. However, their simultaneous role in shaping the hemisphere-scale wintertime troposphere/stratosphere-coupled circulation and its variability have not been considered. Through semi-idealized Atmospheric General-Circulation-Model experiments, we show that the North Atlantic and Pacific OWBCs jointly maintain and shape the wintertime hemispheric circulation and its leading mode of variability Northern Annular Mode (NAM). The OWBCs energize baroclinic waves that reinforce quasi-annular hemispheric structure in the tropospheric eddy-driven jetstreams and NAM variability. Without the OWBCs, the wintertime NAM variability is much weaker and its impact on the continental and maritime surface climate is largely insignificant. Atmospheric energy redistribution caused by the OWBCs acts to damp the near-surface atmospheric baroclinicity and compensates the associated oceanic meridional energy transport. Furthermore, the OWBCs substantially weaken the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex by enhancing the upward planetary wave propagation, and thereby affecting both stratospheric and tropospheric NAM-annularity. Whereas the overall impact of the extra-tropical OWBCs on the stratosphere results mainly from the Pacific, the impact on the troposphere results from both the Pacific and Atlantic OWBCs.

Detection of a climatological short break in the polar night jet in early winter and its relation to cooling over Siberia

Abstract. The polar night jet (PNJ) is a strong stratospheric westerly circumpolar wind at around 65∘ N in winter, and the strength of the climatological PNJ is widely recognized to increase from October through late December. Remarkably, the climatological PNJ temporarily stops increasing during late November. We examined this “short break” in terms of the atmospheric dynamical balance and the climatological seasonal march. We found that it results from an increase in the upward propagation of climatological planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere in late November, which coincides with a maximum of the climatological Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux convergence in the lower stratosphere. The upward propagation of planetary waves at 100 hPa, which is strongest over Siberia, is related to the climatological strengthening of the tropospheric trough over Siberia. We suggest that longitudinally asymmetric forcing by land–sea heating contrasts caused by their different heat capacities can account for the strengthening of the trough.

Does Extreme El Niño Have a Different Effect on the Stratosphere in Boreal Winter Than Its Moderate Counterpart?

AbstractA robust impact of El Niño on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratosphere has been demonstrated by previous studies, although whether this applies to extreme El Niño is uncertain. The time evolution of the response of the NH stratospheric vortex to extreme El Niño, compared with that to moderate eastern Pacific El Niño, is addressed by means of composite analysis using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis data set from 1980 to 2016. Lead‐lag analysis indicates that the El Niño signal actually leads the stratospheric response by ~2 months. Considering the time lag, the signal of December‐January‐February El Niño in the NH stratospheric vortex should mature in the February‐March‐April season (late winter/early spring). The patterns of circulation and temperature for late winter/early spring during extreme and moderate El Niño events are significant, exhibiting similar structure. The results are confirmed with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 4 model, which is forced with observed SSTs of extreme and moderate El Niño in winter (December‐January‐February) to analyze the day‐to‐day propagation of their signals. Note that the magnitudes of the stratospheric responses are much larger in the case of extreme El Niño, as stronger upward propagation of planetary waves leads to a weaker northern polar vortex than during moderate El Niño events.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Decline

AbstractThe Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996/1997. Here we use both observations and model simulations to investigate the modulation of the atmospheric impacts of the decreased sea ice cover in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (AASIC) by the AMO. We find that the AASIC loss during a cold AMO phase induces increased Ural blocking activity, a southeastward‐extended snowpack, and a cold continent anomaly over Eurasia in December through northerly cold air advection and moisture transport from the Arctic. The increased Ural blocking activity and more extended Eurasian snowpack strengthen the upward propagation of planetary waves over the Siberian‐Pacific sector in the lower stratosphere and hence lead to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase at the surface in February. However, corresponding to the AASIC loss during a warm AMO phase, one finds more widespread warming over the Arctic and a reduced snowpack over Northern Eurasia in December. The stratosphere‐troposphere coupling is suppressed in early winter and no negative AO anomaly is found in February. We suggest that the cold AMO phase is important to regulate the atmospheric response to AASIC decline, and our study provides insight to the ongoing debate on the connection between the Arctic sea ice and the AO.

Impacts of early autumn Arctic sea ice concentration on subsequent spring Eurasian surface air temperature variations

This study reveals a close relation between autumn Arctic sea ice change (SIC) in the Laptev Sea-eastern Siberian Sea-Beaufort Sea and subsequent spring Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) variation. Specifically, more (less) SIC over the above regions in early autumn generally correspond to SAT warming (cooling) over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during subsequent spring. Early autumn Arctic SIC affects spring Eurasian SAT via modulating spring Arctic Oscillation (AO) associated atmospheric changes. The meridional temperature gradient over the mid-high latitudes decreases following the Arctic sea ice loss. This results in deceleration of prevailing westerly winds over the mid-latitudes of the troposphere, which leads to increase in the upward propagation of planetary waves and associated Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the stratosphere over the mid-high latitudes. Thereby, westerly winds in the stratosphere are reduced and the polar vortex is weakened. Through the wave-mean flow interaction and downward propagation of zonal wind anomalies, a negative spring AO pattern is formed in the troposphere, which favors SAT cooling over Eurasia. The observed autumn Arctic SIC-spring Eurasian SAT connection is reproduced in the historical simulation (1850–2005) of the flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, spectral version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The FGOALS-s2 also simulates the close connection between autumn SIC and subsequent spring AO. Further analysis suggests that the prediction skill of the spring Eurasian SAT was enhanced when taking the autumn Arctic SIC signal into account.