Upstream Countries Research Articles

Egyptian Foreign Policy and the Nile River: A Historical Analysis

Egypt has been one of the most significant countries in the Nile Basin in terms of the hydropolitics of the Nile River. Since Egypt is downstream and Ethiopia is an upstream country having main sources of the Nile waters in the basin, Egyptian water utilization has been highly dependent on the water resources that come from the Ethiopian highlands. Since Ethiopia lacked the financial and economic capacity to effectively utilize the Nile River, Egypt has been the leading exploiting country of the Nile waters. However, the Ethiopians’ infrastructural projects, such as the construction of hydroelectric dams, have been considered a national security threat by the Egyptian foreign policy decision-makers. Therefore, the developments in the Nile River and Egyptian water security have been chief foreign policy concerns for Egypt. In this context, this study mainly addresses the role of the Nile River in Egyptian foreign policy based on international, regional, and domestic factors. Deploying the descriptive qualitative method, it analyses how the dam constructions and developments regarding water sharing and distribution in the Nile Basin have shaped Egypt’s foreign policy throughout the historical process. It utilizes primary and secondary resources such as the original texts of the historical agreements, official statements, memoirs, and related books and articles in the literature.

Impact of renewable energy consumption on sustainable development in Central Asia

AbstractThe energy transition in Central Asia faces multiple risks while lacking empirical assessment of renewable energy use from a sustainability perspective. This paper examined the relationship of renewable energy consumption with energy intensity and carbon intensity in Central Asia during 1993—2019, using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Weighing the heterogeneity of countries in the region, the results showed that downstream countries build an inverted U‐shaped relationship between renewable energy consumption and carbon intensity, while the whole region indicates an inverted U‐shaped relationship between renewable energy consumption and energy intensity. Compared with hydrocarbon, nonfossil energy is expected to serve as a greater driving force for economic growth in the future, alleviating socio‐economic dependence on fossil fuels in downstream countries and generating additional revenues to ensure energy security in upstream countries. The findings suggest policymakers to considerably mitigate the risks of decarbonization across the region.

Heterogeneous Diplomacy of Political Relations between Iran and Afghanistan in exploiting the water of Helmand Border River

The water challenge in the Middle East has caused governments to face new problems in which they have to consider more control, management, and care regarding their water resources to survive. Due to growing water consumption by upstream countries of the border rivers in exploiting the resources, we will observe an increase in hydro-political disputes among the nations. Helmand is a river that flows into Iran and includes a hydro-political aspect. It has always influenced the relations between the two countries since the border formation. The fluctuation of the Helmand water flow and decrease in the running water towards Sistan (Iran) in the last hundred years has always created problems in relations between Iran and Afghanistan at the National and local levels. In the past years, Afghanistan has consumed a significant part of the water by creating a dam, reducing the amount of water flowing into Iran. On the other side, morphological changes of the river, such as the dispute on specifying the border exactly in the changeable river bed, dispute from the instability of water rights distribution pattern between the two countries, and finally, the dispute from specifying the extent and territory of the border area has led to ecosystem instabilities. In this regard, the strategy to control the ecosystem instabilities is environment diplomacy, and if it is synchronized with defensive diplomacy, it causes stability. With this description, we will examine the Helmand peripheral issues and the course of diplomacy in this field.

Climate Change and Its Impact on The Expansion of The Phenomenon of Sand Dunes and Desertification of Agricultural Lands in Iraq for The Period 1984- 2022 (Governorates of Al-Qadisiyah, Al-Muthanna, and Dhi Qar)

Background: The present research aims to investigate the relationship between the phenomenon of desertification of agricultural lands and the expansion of the phenomenon of dunes in Iraqi Mesopotamia (central and southern Iraq), the phenomenon of global climate change, and the regional policies of the upstream countries neighboring Iraq. Method: The study uses, a monitoring process carried out using the data of satellite images of the Landsat series, for the period from 1984 to 2022, by ArcGIS program, with the tool of supervised classification. Results: Obviously, the danger of climate change and its effects on Iraq is shown in the results of this study, which showed that the fertile agricultural lands that were deserted constituted about 45% of the total lands until July 2022, including (16.67% of the total region) dunes or heavily decertified lands. The percentage of cultivated agricultural lands has deteriorated to 42%, a very serious decline compared to 1998 when the rate was more than 80%. Moreover, the most dangerous environmental situation right now is represented by the loss of more than half of its water bodies, as it currently (2022) constitutes only 12.47% of the study area, while it represented 26.9% of the study area in 1984. Conclusion: Based on the study results, we find out the annual precipitation rates are the climatic factor strongly affecting, the decline or expansion of the phenomenon of dunes, besides the neighboring country policies (Türkiye and Iran)

Will the Nile River Turn into a Lake? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (GERD) Dam Case-Study

Abstract Today, many scholars agree that changes in water availability triggered by population growth, economic development and climate change impact will increase competition between water users, making conflict more likely, especially in those countries that lack the financial, technical and governance capacities to address water-related challenge and/or in river basin riparian states that share common water resources. As early as 2012, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), analysing the water issue at a regional and global level, concluded that, while water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely to occur during the next ten years, the problem is projected to get worse in the near future. Starting from the historical reconstruction and the geopolitical repercussions of the water dispute in the Nile River Basin and focusing on the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), this article aims to analyse the political, socio-economic and environmental changes that are affecting upstream countries and to detect how these new dynamics are challenging both the balance of power and the ongoing cooperation process in the region.

The role of water in sustainable agricultural development in Iraq (Review)

This article aims to find out the impact of water in the process of sustainable agricultural development in Iraq, by presenting the reality of water resources in Iraq and water sources with reference to water sources globally and at the level of the Arab world, the low efficiency of the use of water resources in Iraq, which was considered one of the biggest challenges that led to the depletion of this important and vital resource, as it did not exceed in the best cases 40%, which is a small percentage if compared to neighboring countries and the Arab homeland. Moreover, the study did not indicate any trend to use virtual water as a more rational alternative to importing water between the high costs of water and its transportation, and it was also shown through the study that there are many challenges that affected water management in Iraq, including water share and water security, as well as shared water with neighboring and upstream countries. The study recommended supporting and encouraging the use of modern irrigation systems (sprinklers) to raise the efficiency of water use and link water security with food security because of their major role in raising the process of sustainable agricultural development in Iraq As well Aa activating the rule aquatic Agricultural extension because of its role in guiding and guiding farmers in rationalizing the use of water resources and urging them to adopt modern irrigation technologies.

IMPORTANCE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN POLITICS

Water is the lifeblood of all human and natural systems. Although most regions of the world have abundant water resources, availability of drinking water is inadequate in many parts of the world. Current and projected water shortages are nowhere as acute as in the arid countries of the Middle East. While battles have been fought over water allocation in many countries, the greatest potential for a conflict over water is perhaps in the Middle East, where water resources are limited and political tension is high. Water is just one of the issues that may widen the gulf between countries. Cooperation to solve water problems is possible, though difficult. Indeed, joint action on water has the potential to lead to even greater co-operation in the wider political arena. Mutually beneficial, “win – win” solutions are preferable to conflict or stalemate. Conversely, arrangements not arrived at to fairly allocate one of life’s most important necessities can only perpetuate conflict. The most pressing environmental problem in the Middle East concerns the ownership, management and useof scarce water resources. Water has frequently been the cause of regional conflicts. Much of the struggle between Israel and its Arab neighbours revolves around the water issues. Indeed, the history of relationship between Israel, Syria, and Jordan for the past 50 years can be viewed as a fight for water. A long-term settlement between Israel and its neighbours will depend as much on the fair allocation of water as of land. Nearby, Egypt fears an appropriation of the Niles waters, on which 60 million of its people are entirely dependent, by the upstream countries of Sudan and Ethiopia. Water problem is linked with other problems of the Middle East. The dispute between Iranand Iraq over Shatt-al-Arab, for example, has its origins in boundary conflicts that go back in history. Arguments between Turkey and Syria over water from the River Euphrates are often linked to Syrian support to the Marxist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) that seeks independence for the Turkish Kurdistan region. Iraqi-Syrian water disagreements have both masked and resulted from military and political ambitions.

Application of Weap Model for Managing Water Resources in Iraq: A Review

Due to the construction of dams in upstream countries and the usage of surface irrigation systems, Iraq has been experiencing a water shortage. Due to population increase and the expansion of the industrial and agricultural sectors, the country is having difficulty keeping up with the rising demand for water. Many previous studies carried out to optimize the water resources management in Iraq over the two decades using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) modeling considering various aspects and different water resources throughout Iraq provinces. This study aims to find out if the WEAP modeling is reliable to optimize water resources management, fourteen previous studies were reviewed to figure out the fields they focused on, the study limitations, and the obtained results. It was found that the WEAP model is reliable for assessing, planning, and optimization of water resources management.

Navigating Water Policy: Vietnam's Strategic Shift in the Mekong River Basin (2017-2021)

The historic drought and salinity stress experienced in Vietnam in 2020 starkly demonstrated the criticality of wise water diplomacy for the survival of lower Mekong countries, where the urgent need for water and maintaining natural flow are paramount. Consequently, the period from 2017 to 2021 witnessed a notable shift in Vietnam's water diplomacy, focusing on ensuring water security in the region and responding to the actions of upstream countries. This study examines Vietnam's water diplomacy and its pivotal role in safeguarding water security in the Mekong region during the specified timeframe. Employing a qualitative research approach, the study draws upon expert analyses and scholarly articles to shed light on the significance of water security in Vietnam's foreign policy, the profound impact of climate change and water policies on the nation, and Vietnam's proactive involvement in regional and international cooperation mechanisms. The study emphasizes Vietnam's remarkable adaptability and responsiveness to environmental and global changes, further showcasing the country's remarkable flexibility in its foreign policy pursuits.

Resilience Appraisal of Water Resources System under Climate Change Influence Using a Probabilistic-Nonstationary Approach

The planning and management of water resources are being impacted by climate change, and are in need of comprehensive adaptation strategies to respond to future projections. The goal of this study is to support those strategies with a new decision-making paradigm that employs a probabilistic-nonstationary hydroclimatic scenario to examine the long-term system resilience for multiple dam objectives. The modified approach to examine resilience was applied, and uses a bottom-up approach with a modified resilience concept to achieve the long-term operation targets. The approach integrates Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with a statistical weather generator (SWG) to produce a range of future scenarios. Then, the system response is evaluated against those scenarios. The study utilizes a pre-developed SWG to synthesize different trajectories by altering three weather variables: the precipitation amount, temperature mean, and wind-speed magnitude. The proposed has four staged phases: (1) identification of the future climate exposure using different GCMs; (2) future water supply estimation for scenarios using hydrological models; (3) future water demand estimation for scenarios of all system stakeholders; and (4) evaluation of system performance resilience for the dam operational purposes. The Diyala River Basin in Iraq was selected as a case study, to apply the suggested paradigm. The analysis of the GCM outputs revealed that the rainfall mean varies between −37% and +31%; temperature mean varies between +0.4 °C and 5.1 °C; and the mean wind speed varies between −22% and 11%. Based on these ranges, the future climate trajectories were simulated. According to the examination of the system’s response to those weather changes, the precipitation is the most effective parameter, followed by the temperature change, and lastly the wind speed. Furthermore, the findings show that the existing system operating rules are reliable in terms of flood protection but vulnerable in terms of drought management. The analysis of system resilience to manage the drought was found to be 0.74 for the future trajectories, while it was 0.91 for flood protection. This indicates that project managers should prioritize the drought and water scarcity management, due to climate change impact and upstream country development. The study also shows that the suggested resilience paradigm is capable of measuring the negative effects of climate change and able to provide long-term adaptation guidance for water resources management.

Geomorphometric characterization and sediment connectivity of the middle Brahmaputra River basin

Knowledge of geomorphic characteristics and sediment connectivity is critical in understanding basin-scale surface processes that include steep mountainous and flat lowlands, particularly if the mid-basin and downstream areas are densely populated and disaster-prone. However, the lack of fluvial and sediment connectivity studies in downstream portions of large rivers of South Asia (particularly Bangladesh), where upper basin morphodynamics, hydrology, and sediment flux highly influence the repeated sediment disasters, limits our understanding of the large-scale fluvial geomorphic processes and basin-scale sustainable river management. Therefore, this article attempts to characterize the morphometric and topographic features along with the spatial sediment connectivity pattern of the middle Brahmaputra River basin (Teesta, Torsa, and Manas basins) covering ~75,000 km2 that influences the hydro-geomorphic response of the deltaic landscape of lowland Bangladesh. This work considers a set of morphometric and topographic parameters including the stream network, longitudinal profiles, stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI) for geomorphometric characterization. The linkage between the sediment sources to downstream areas also has been evaluated with the sediment connectivity (IC) index to understand better the sediment dynamics of the middle Brahmaputra River basin, draining towards lowland Bangladesh from the basin's upstream countries of India and Bhutan. The result of this study demonstrates a highly potential hydro-geomorphic response of the downstream areas attributed to steep topography, steep channel longitudinal profiles, high rainfall, and high sediment connectivity in upstream regions. However, the low topography, presence of anthropogenic stressors, almost flat longitudinal channel profiles with limited change in elevation, and lowered sediment connectivity potential in the mid-to-downstream areas depicts sensitivity to the depositional processes therein, impacting the basin-scale geomorphic connectivity from the upstream to the downstream region. These results will be the basic information for exploring the large-scale hydro-geomorphic response and structural sediment dynamics to understand the complex geomorphological processes in the South Asia region, where the fluvial sedimentation process is not fully understood with limited accessibility for field-based investigations.

Collective Actions and Challenges Analysis on Management of the Mekong River as Common Pool Resources

The countries of the Indochinese peninsula think that the Mekong River is a shared resource that must be managed through cooperation between countries. However, because many countries exploit the resources in the Mekong River, it triggers an increase in environmental degradation. This phenomenon has prompted the establishment of the 1995 Mekong Agreement and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) which aims to agree on cooperation in sustainable development, conservation, and management of resources in river areas. However, as an upstream country, China did not want to join the Mekong River Commission. In fact, China initiated a new collaboration called the Lancang Mekong Cooperation Mechanism (LMCM) in 2016. In the concrete, China has implemented a mega dam construction project which is considered to be a contributor to environmental degradation. By utilizing Garret Hardin's (1968) views on the tragedy of the commons, this paper analyses the challenges, collective actions and efforts of countries in the Mekong River region in overcoming river management and the sources of the tragedy of the commons. Through several characteristics in the management of shared resources by Ostrom (1990) this paper finds that arrangements for shared resources are important to be systematically arranged by the government to prevent the tragedy of the commons. Institutions at the local level are very important to be able to develop appropriate institutional structures that are adapted to the social and economic life of the people along the Mekong River.

Contemporary climate change problems in Central Asia

According to the moderate climate change scenario, the direct impact of climate change on irrigated crops, including cotton, wheat, apples, tomatoes, and potatoes, is pro-jected to decrease the yields by 1–13% by 2050. However, the demand for food is expected to increase overall due to the population growth and poverty reduction goals. The rate of climate change in the countries varies. The highest decadal rates of climate change were recorded in Uzbekistan at 0.29°C (1950-2005) and in Kazakhstan at 0.26°C (1936-2005). The climate change rate in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were 0.08°C and 0.10°C, respectively. In these upstream countries, the area of forests and mountain ranges is relatively large, and the possible negative impact of climatic factors is relatively small. Thus, the contemporary problems in Central Asia in the context of climate change are related to a growing scarcity of water resources; uneven distribution of water resources across the countries in relation to the needs; relatively low water use efficiency (especially in agriculture); relatively high population growth rates and intensification of economic processes. If additional resource-saving measures are not taken, the negative consequences of climate change in the region may include an increased risk of water shortages, droughts, and other dangerous hydrome-teorological events that lead to instability of agricultural production and threaten food secu-rity; and particularly the shrinkage of glaciers and therewith one of the key sources of freshwater. Overall, a strategy of action plans on climate change nationally and region-wide is urgently needed, including both adaptation and mitigation measures.

Perception changes and the attribution of the impact of Lancang-Mekong hydropower dams in the media of riparian countries from 1971 to 2020

Study regionThe Lancang-Mekong River Basin, which flows through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Study focusMultilateral cooperation in the sustainable development of international river basins has been considerably hindered by insufficient recognition of the attitudes and concerns about water resource exploitation held by politicians and the public in riparian countries. This study used media reporting from 1971 to 2020 to combine sentiment analysis, dynamic topic mining, and statistical analysis to quantitatively examine the dynamics and drivers of attitudes towards Lancang-Mekong hydropower development. New hydrological insights for the regionReporting in affected countries underwent five stages: positive support but low actual participation in hydropower development (1971–1991), increasing concerns and active participation by most countries (1992–1994), an emerging negative attitude in downstream countries (1995–2008), spreading opposition by downstream countries (2009–2015), and the coexistence of cooperation and conflict (2016–2020). Media reports from upstream countries (i.e., China and Laos) were positive regarding hydropower development; downstream countries opposed hydropower and prioritized the negative impacts of dam construction. International shifts in attitude were dominated by vulnerabilities to extreme weather and affected by major geopolitical events, including local wars, interference from extraterritorial forces, and established regional alliances. This knowledge will strengthen international water use cooperation in light of global climate change and complex geopolitics.

The Spiral of Escalating Water Conflict: The Theory of Hydro-Politics

Using water to enforce a political agenda is a global concern for peacebuilding. Hence, understanding hydro-politics is essential when predicting possible water-based conflict scenarios between riparian countries. A structured theory covering most of the possible events involved in hydro-politics would help assess with a sufficient understanding the reasons and consequences of water conflict. This study proposed a comprehensive theory of hydro-politics, particularly those related to water impoundment and water control through upstream country dams, to identify the root causes of water conflicts between riparian states and the factors of global challenges that arise in conflicts. The framework used eight phases elaborated on the key theories of international relations and demonstrated the possible connection between water conflict/cooperation events and the adopted international relations doctrine at the state level. Each phase illustrates the hydro-political relations between the riparian countries, expected level of conflict, power balance, and possible consequences. Additionally, 21 international case studies were used to illustrate these phases. The theory may assist decision makers in analyzing collective risk and alleviating any expected negative implications of water conflicts.

Using the WEI+ index to evaluate water scarcity at highly regulated river basins with conjunctive uses of surface and groundwater resources.

This paper discusses the role and limitations of using WEI+ as a water resource management tool for highly regulated river basins, with a conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. By considering flow regulation by reservoirs and aquifer systems, seasonality of water availability and demand, returns from water uses and environmental flow requirements, WEI+ constitutes an improvement to existing quantitative water scarcity indexes. However, the computation of WEI+ in complex river basins systems requires detailed data on water availability and water allocation to various uses, which are hard to obtain from monitoring records. The paper describes how the combined use of hydrological and water allocation models can help to overcome data gaps in water accounting and contribute to an improved analysis of water scarcity in heterogeneous and intricate river basins. It also examines the information provided by WEI+ and by other widely used water scarcity indexes, such as the Water Stress Index and the Criticality Ratio, as well as discusses the ability of WEI+ to measure the performance of hydraulic systems, usually evaluated by parameters such as reliability, vulnerability, and resilience. The Tagus River transboundary basin was selected as case study due to massive flow regulation by multi-purpose reservoirs and significant seasonality of water availability and demand. Results show the benefits of using WEI+ to define levels of water scarcity, over other indexes. Within the Tagus River systems, high values of WEI+ are reached during the summer months in regions with intensive agriculture, denoting severe water stress conditions in most sub-basins. The analysis also reveals the strong dependence of Portugal, the downstream country, on flows from Spain, the upstream country.

Análisis del conflicto del agua: la disputa del río Nilo

La cuenca del río Nilo es la fuente de vida de Egipto, Etiopía, Sudán y los países río arriba, principalmente como agua para la agricultura y la energía hidroeléctrica. El recurso es el centro de un desarrollo muy disputado entre los países río abajo y río arriba. En los últimos años, debido en gran parte al cambio climático y al rápido crecimiento de la población, se ha producido un aumento en el nivel del conflicto relacionado con la escasez de agua y el subsecuente agravamiento de la inseguridad alimentaria. Además, las masas de agua transfronterizas tienen una gestión hídrica aún más compleja, convirtiéndose en uno de los principales temas geopolíticos de la actualidad. Este conflicto es el resultado de la ambición de los principales países ribereños, en particular Egipto, Sudán, Etiopía y otras naciones río arriba, por reclamar una mayor parte de los suministros de agua disponibles en la cuenca. Precisamente por eso, una teoría del juego cooperativo proporciona información valiosa sobre las disputas estratégicas en relación con los recursos hídricos. En este artículo, se evalúan las estrategias no cooperativas para determinar los posibles resultados de la disputa.

The Effect of Changing River Nutrients on Changing Marshes in Southern Iraq: Central Marshlands /a Model

The marshes contain natural and human resources, and these resources represent the available capabilities that constitute the economic basis for the process of developing the marshes. The marshes derive their water from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and rainwater. They are considered the main source for them, and the area of land covered with water expands at the time of the flood in the late winter and early spring. Its levels decrease in the summer during the dry days. The research problem crystallizes in the fluctuation of the quantity of water input into the marsh region, which results in the contraction and expansion of the areas of the land submerged therein. So, the goal of the study is to look at the reality of the marshes of the marshes and figure out how the submerged areas are changing and how they affect the area. The study relies on the descriptive analytical approach to statistical data and considers the Central Marshlands as a model. The research reached a number of results, the most important of which is that changing the ecosystem as a result of fluctuating water reaching it and shrinking submerged lands. In addition, the research proposes, is to use a basin and low marshes as a large water reservoir to preserve water in times of floods from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, rain, and torrents. Conclude water agreements with upstream countries to ensure continued inspection of water on a regular basis and the stability of Iraq's water resources is thus reflected positively on the marshes.

Optimising water resources management by Using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) in the West of Iraq

Iraq has been suffering from decreasing Euphrates discharge due to the construction of dams within upstream countries and the use of surface irrigation systems. The country is facing a problem with meeting the increasing demand for water as a result of population growth and development in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Therefore, a simulation modelling was applied for western Iraq (Ramadi city as a case study) using the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) for the period 2018–2035. This research follows a four-step approach that involves: (i) evaluating the available water of the Euphrates River under declined water imports caused by the construction of dams in Turkey and Syria, (ii) assessing present and future water demands of the domestic, industrial, and agricultural sectors, (iii) improving water productivity (WP) by means of saving more water, (iv) estimating the economic returns under improved water use. The results showed that Iraq would face a serious problem in the coming years, represented by the limited storage of Haditha Dam, which is considered the strategic water storage site for the central and southern regions of Iraq. The study indicated the necessity of finding alternative sources of water supply by adopting new water management strategies to reduce the water deficit.

Patterns and features of embodied environmental flow networks in the international trade of metal resources: A study of aluminum

This research analyzes the embodied environmental impacts in the global trade network of aluminum in 2020. To do so, we combine life cycle assessment with complex network analysis. The global trade of aluminum is subdivided into ores and concentrates, compounds, products, and waste. The end goal of this study is to identify the key countries of the aluminum trading network and to aid policymakers in creating sound trade policies that lower global environmental impacts. We find that the trade of highly processed products has limited influence on the trade of environmental impacts, while raw materials and metal scraps have a large contribution. Mainland China, India, Turkey, Germany, the United States, Spain, and Belgium are key intermediate countries and act as transferring hubs of environmental impacts from neighboring countries to emerging economies. To reduce the environmental impacts embedded in the trade of aluminum, we recommend for the key intermediate countries to monetize the embedded environmental impacts in the form of tariffs. We also suggest that upstream countries with low-emission technologies should support—and be supported by—downstream countries in a concerted effort to reduce environmental pressure.