Upper-tropospheric Wind Research Articles

A systematic evaluation of high-cloud controlling factors

Abstract. Clouds strongly modulate the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget and are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. “Cloud controlling factor” (CCF) analysis derives relationships between large-scale meteorological drivers and cloud radiative anomalies, which can be used to constrain cloud feedback. However, the choice of meteorological CCFs is crucial for a meaningful constraint. While there is rich literature investigating ideal CCF setups for low-level clouds, there is a lack of analogous research explicitly targeting high clouds. Here, we use ridge regression to systematically evaluate the addition of five candidate CCFs to previously established core CCFs within large spatial domains to predict longwave high-cloud radiative anomalies: upper-tropospheric static stability (SUT), sub-cloud moist static energy, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, and upper-tropospheric wind shear (ΔU300). We identify an optimal configuration for predicting high-cloud radiative anomalies that includes SUT and ΔU300 and show that spatial domain size is more important than the selection of CCFs for predictive skill. We also find an important discrepancy between the optimal domain sizes required for predicting locally and globally aggregated radiative anomalies. Finally, we scientifically interpret the ridge regression coefficients, where we show that SUT captures physical drivers of known high-cloud feedbacks and deduce that the inclusion of SUT into observational constraint frameworks may reduce uncertainty associated with changes in anvil cloud amount as a function of climate change. Therefore, we highlight SUT as an important CCF for high clouds and longwave cloud feedback.

Sensitivity of Easterly QBO’s Boreal Winter Teleconnections and Surface Impacts to SSWs

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO–SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper-tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs, while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO teleconnections with certain surface impacts. Significance Statement The QBO is one of the few parts of the Earth system that is predictable months in advance and that also elicits global effects on surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation. Unfortunately, climate models and operational forecast systems do not simulate the QBO well and it is not always clear how robust the global impacts of the QBO are. Here, we impose the QBO in idealized model simulations, which modulates wintertime surface temperature and precipitation over Asia, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Africa in a manner consistent with observations. This work substantiates the importance of climate and forecast models properly simulating the QBO.

South Asian High Identification and Rainstorm Monitoring Using Fengyun-4-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors

Based on atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) derived from the Fengyun-4 meteorological satellite (FY-4), in this paper, integrated multi-satellite retrievals for GPM precipitation and reanalysis datasets and the vertical distribution characteristics of FY-4 AMVs, their application in the identification of the South Asian high (SAH) anticyclone and their application in the real-time monitoring of rainstorm disasters are studied. The results show that the AMVs’ vertical distribution characteristics are different across regions and seasons. AMVs from 150 to 350 hPa can be chosen as the upper troposphere wind (the total number accounts for about 77.2% on average). The center and shape of the upper tropospheric anticyclone obtained from AMVs are close to or slightly southward compared with those of the SAH at 200 hPa obtained from the ERA5 geopotential height. The SAH ridge line identified using the upper troposphere AMV zonal wind (the zonal wind is equal to zero) is slightly southward by about 1–2 degrees of latitude from that identified using ERA5 at 200 hPa but with a similar seasonal advance. The upper troposphere AMV can be used to monitor the location of the SAH and the evolution of its ridge line. The abnormally strong precipitation in South China is related to the location of the SAH and its ridge line. When the precipitation is abnormally strong/weak, the upper troposphere AMV deviation airflow shows divergence/convergence. During the “Dragon Boat Water” period in South China in 2022, strong precipitation occurred in the strong westerly winds or divergent flow on the northeast side of the upper troposphere anticyclone obtained from AMVs, and the precipitation intensity was the strongest when the divergence reached its peak, but this is not shown clearly in the EAR5 dataset.

Regional Variability in the Environmental Controls of Precipitation Regimes in the Tropics

AbstractThe environmental factors that control precipitation regimes in Boreal winter rainfall in the tropics and their regional variabilities are examined using a simple statistical analysis and a machine learning (ML) model. Radar‐derived precipitation from field campaigns at Darwin Australia, Manaus Brazil, and the Equatorial Indian Ocean, along with the corresponding large‐scale environmental variables from ERA5 reanalysis, are used. The dependence of marginal distributions of frequencies of these regimes on five environmental variables are calculated. The variables are hourly column integrated precipitable water (PW), convective available potential energy, convective inhibition (CIN), and lower and upper tropospheric wind shear. The simple ML model that predicts the probability of transition from suppressed to an active regime as a function of the environmental variables is designed and optimized for a potential application as a trigger function for convection parameterizations. To the first order the analysis shows an abrupt increase in the probability of an active regime near PW > 60 mm and CIN of <100 J kg−1. The key differences in the frequencies of active regimes among the regions are found to be related to the fact that over Darwin there is strong variability in PW while CIN is generally low. Over Amazon, on the other hand, both PW and CIN are quite variable. Over the Dynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation domain the comparatively frequent low PW is compensated for by consistently low CIN resulting in a moderate frequency of an active regime.

Interannual impact of the Victoria mode on the winter-spring surface air temperature over Eurasia and North America

Variations of the Victoria mode (VM) have received considerable attention due to their profound impacts on the climate systems in the pan-North Pacific. However, works about its impact on surface air temperature (SAT) variability over Eurasia and North America, which may be responsible for extreme weather and climate events, are limited. Here we show a significant positive and negative relationship between the VM and the winter-spring SAT anomalies over mid-to-high-latitude east-central Eurasia (MEE) and eastern North America (ENA), respectively. A local energy budget analysis shows that the contribution of the surface heat fluxes associated with the VM to the SAT anomalies is confined mainly to MEE and may not explain the formation of SAT anomalies over ENA. Furthermore, VM-induced anomalous atmospheric circulations play a crucial role in the formation of notable SAT anomalies. The positive (negative) VM is linked to negative (positive) precipitation and upper-tropospheric wind convergence (divergence) anomalies over the western North Pacific, which contribute to positive (negative) Rossby wave source (RWS) anomalies near the East Asian westerly jet core. These RWS anomalies act as disturbances that propagate eastward, exciting a wave train-like pattern. The high-level positive and negative geopotential height anomalies of the Rossby wave dominate MEE and ENA, respectively, leading to the variation in SAT anomalies. These results could advance our understanding of the relationship between the VM and SAT over the Northern Hemisphere and inspire us to pay more attention to the VM climate impacts.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Extreme Wind Events in Canadian Cities

Abstract Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient. Significance Statement In this study we identify the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that drive extreme wind speeds in Canadian cities, and how well numerical climate models, which are used for producing climate change projections, represent these circulation patterns. Climate models do not simulate local winds as accurately as larger-scale phenomena, so this work can help identify useful information that models contain regarding extreme winds. For cities in eastern Canada, a benchmark model generally performs well, but a model with refined spatial resolution over southern Ontario improves agreement with patterns for observed extreme winds in that region.

Linkages between Madden–Julian oscillation and drought events over Kenya

Increased frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events have negatively impacted climate-sensitive socio-economic sectors in Kenya and larger Equatorial East Africa (EEA). Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) influence intra-seasonal weather variability over Kenya although less attention has been given to its effect on extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, which have increased in frequency and intensity. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) was used in this work as proxy data for rainfall to study the geographical distribution and circulation anomalies associated with MJOs and their impacts on extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are identified using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), based on sc-PDSI, 2013/2014 and 2017/2018 as the drought and flood years, respectively. The background power spectral analysis reveals that MJOs are more dominant during the March–May (MAM) season than other seasons. The variance analysis depicted that the maximum power of MJO-filtered OLR is cantered within the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Upper tropospheric (200 hPa) wind signatures give a clear Matsuno-Gill-type circulation compared to the lower tropospheric wind flows. Thus, the signatures can be used to develop a dynamic MJO index for prediction purposes. There exists a weak direct relationship between MJO and sc-PDSI; however, the influence may result from its modulation of atmospheric circulation as illustrated by the wind and velocity potential patterns before and after the passage of the convective MJO phase.

Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall in relation to monsoon teleconnections and agriculture at Regional Scale in Haryana, India.

This study examined the long-term (1980-2019) spatio-temporal trends, variability and teleconnections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) of all districts of Haryana, India and their impact on agricultural productivity. The gridded datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to statistically analyse the rainfall distribution, trend, coefficient of variation and intensity of rainfall. The gridded datasets of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis V5 (ERA5) were examined for lower and upper tropospheric wind circulation (850hPa and 200hpa), vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) and surface moisture flux (SMF). The datasets of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were correlated with ISMR and composite deviation of rainfall and rainfall intensity during El Niño and La Niña from neutral years was examined at district level. Our analysis revealed that districts lying in eastern agroclimatic zone (EAZ) of Haryana received more ISMR during each month of monsoon season as compared to the ones situated in western agroclimatic zone (WAZ). Trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test revealed that Kurukshetra, Panipat, Ambala, Rohtak, Faridabad, Jhajjar, Sonipat, Fatehabad and Palwal have shown a decreasing trend while Mahendragarh and Panchkula have shown an increasing trend of rainfall. During the El Niño years, most of the locations in the state received deficient to large deficient category, whereas during the La Niña episodes, most of the locations received excess to large excess category of ISMR, which is indicative of the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the regional scale. The influence of ISMR on bajra productivity for the districts lying in WAZ and rice productivity for the districts lying in EAZ was undertaken. This study is beneficial for understanding the impacts of climate change and climate variability on ISMR dynamics in Haryana which may further guide the policy-makers and beneficiaries for optimising the use of hydrological resources.

The Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Silk Road Pattern in Summer

Abstract The Silk Road pattern (SRP), which is the leading mode of upper-tropospheric meridional wind anomalies over midlatitude Eurasia, has been widely used to explain the impacts of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) on East Asian climate. However, the relationship between the SNAO and SRP has not been fully elaborated yet. This study classifies the SNAO into two categories according to whether it is closely associated with the SRP or not: the strongly linked category and weakly linked category, on the interannual time scale. The SNAO of the strongly linked category features a concentrated and significant southern pole over the northwestern Europe, and corresponding significant negative (positive) precipitation and upper-tropospheric wind convergence (divergence) anomalies over the northwestern Europe. The wind convergence (divergence) anomalies directly induce the positive (negative) planetary vortex stretching anomalies, which contribute overwhelmingly to positive (negative) Rossby wave source anomalies of the northwestern Europe. These Rossby wave source anomalies, acting as disturbances, further inspire circulation anomalies of surrounding regions, including meridional wind anomalies over the Caspian Sea, which are crucial for the SRP formation. As a result, the downstream SRP is triggered. All these essential features responsible for a strong SNAO–SRP linkage are weak for the weakly linked category. The SNAO–SRP correspondence on the interdecadal time scale is also discussed, and generally similar results are found. Results suggest the importance of shapes for the SNAO southern pole (including the location, the space extent, and the intensity) in determining whether the SNAO can closely link the SRP. Therefore, the shape of the SNAO southern pole should be involved in the discussion of the SNAO’s remote impacts.

Effect of Advection by Upper-Tropospheric Background Zonal Wind on MJO Phase Speed

Abstract A robust linear regression algorithm is applied to estimate 95% confidence intervals on the background wind associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) upper-tropospheric atmospheric circulation signals characterized by different phase speeds. Data reconstructed from the ERA5 to represent advection by the upper-tropospheric background flow and MJO-associated zonal wind anomalies, together with satellite outgoing longwave radiation anomalies, all in the equatorial plane, are regressed against advection data filtered for zonal wavenumber 2 and phase speeds of 3, 4, 5, and 7 m s−1. The regressed advection by the background flow is then divided by the negative of the zonal gradient of regressed zonal wind across the central Indian Ocean base longitude at 80°E to estimate the associated background wind that leads to the given advection. The median estimates of background wind associated with these phase speeds are 13.4, 11.2, 10.5, and 10.3 m s−1 easterly. The differences between estimated values at neighboring speeds suggests that advection acts most strongly in slow MJO events, indicating that the slowest events happen to be slow because they experience stronger easterly advection by the upper-tropospheric background wind. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant subseasonal rainfall signal of the tropical atmosphere. This project shows that the background wind of the tropical atmosphere most especially slows down the slowest MJO events. Understanding what controls its speed might help scientists better predict events.

Impact of monsoon teleconnections on regional rainfall and vegetation dynamics in Haryana, India.

Our study has investigated the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on spatio-temporal dynamics of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) as well as vegetation for a period of 1980 to 2019 at regional scale in Haryana, India. The gridded rainfall datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) were examined on monthly and seasonal scale using various statistical methods like mean climatology, coefficient of variation, slope of linear, Sen's slope, Mann-Kendall Z statistic, and hierarchical cluster analysis. The influence of ENSO on spatial distribution of ISMR was observed, where we found increasing and decreasing rainfall patterns during La Niña and El Niño years, respectively. We attempted to establish a link between ISMR and various teleconnections using time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Physical Sciences Laboratory, and statistically significant and positive correlation was observed with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), whereas significantly negative correlations were observed with SST of Niño 3, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 regions. The gridded datasets of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis V5 (ERA5) were used to evaluate the influence of ENSO on atmospheric dynamics using lower and upper tropospheric wind circulation (850hPa and200 hpa), vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT), and surface moisture flux (SMF). We have used satellite-based normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets of the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) to investigate the impact of ENSO on vegetation dynamics of Haryana and found that NDVI values were higher and lower in case of La Niña and El Niño years, respectively.

Decadal changes of cyclone tracks in the Bay of Bengal

Warming tropical sea surface temperatures may also change the environmental wind field, which could affect genesis, intensity and track of Tropical Cyclone (TC). In recent years under ever-increasing global warming, scientists have directed more attention to the variation in the track. In the Indian Ocean, most of the severe cyclones during pre-monsoon (April and May) and post-monsoon (October to December) seasons hit the east coast of India, causing loss of life and damage to property. The frequency of cyclones is 3 - 4 times higher over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) when compared with the Arabian Sea (AS). The cyclone tracks over BoB in October-December season, the upper tropospheric winds over the north Indian Ocean and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall exhibit large inter-annual variability. In this study an attempt has been made to examine the changes in TC tracks during October-December over BoB on decadal time scale. In addition to atmospheric parameters, oceanic parameters like SST, TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential), UOHC (upper ocean heat content), thermocline depth, appear to be the best parameters to examine the variability for last three decades.

Intra-seasonal contrasting trends in clouds due to warming induced circulation changes

Quantification of long term changes in cloud distribution and properties is critical for the proper assessment of future climate. We show contrasting trends in cloud properties and cloud radiative effects over Northwest Indian Ocean (NWIO) in south Asian summer monsoon. Cloud top height (CTH) decreases in June (− 69 ± 3 myr−1) and July (− 44 ± 3 myr−1), whereas it increases in August (106 ± 2 myr−1) and September (37 ± 1 myr−1). These contrasting trends are investigated to be due to the changes in upper tropospheric winds and atmospheric circulation pattern. Strengthening of upper tropospheric easterlies and changes in vertical wind dampen the vertical development of clouds in June and July. In contrast, weakening of upper tropospheric winds over NWIO and strengthening of updraft favour the vertical growth of clouds in August. Further, changes in horizontal winds at 450–350 hPa and strengthening of Indian Ocean Walker cell favour the westward spread of high level clouds, contributing to the increase in CTH over NWIO in August. Decrease of cloud cover and altitude in June and July and increase of the same in subsequent months would affect the monsoon rainfall over the Indian region. Proper representation of these intra-seasonal contrasting trends of clouds in climate models is important for the better prediction of regional weather.

Influence of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves on March-May precipitation over East Africa

Convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCEKWs) are those types of equatorially trapped disturbances that propagate eastward and are among the most common intra-seasonal oscillations in the tropics. There exists two-way feedback between the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and these equatorially trapped disturbances. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) was utilized as a proxy for deep convection. For CCEKWs, the modes are located over the West Atlantic, equatorial West Africa, and the Indian Ocean. The influence of other circulations and climate dynamics is studied for finding other drivers of climate within East Africa. The results show a positive relationship between Indian and Atlantic Oceans Sea Surface Temperatures and March-May rainfall over equatorial East Africa over the period of 1980 to 2010. This influence is driven by the Walker circulation and anomalous moisture influx enhanced by winds. Composite analysis reveals strong lower-tropospheric westerlies during the active phase of the CCKWs activities over Equatorial East Africa. The winds are in the opposite direction with the upper-tropospheric winds, which are easterlies. Singular Value Decomposition shows a strong coupling interaction between rainfall over equatorial East Africa and CCKWs. This study concludes that Kelvin waves are not the main factors that influence rainfall during the rainy season. Previous studies show that the main influencing factors are ITCZ, El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and tropical anticyclones that borders the African continent. However, CCKWs are a significant factor during the dry seasons.

Characteristics of the upper troposphere wind field according to the satellite measurements and their connection with climatic parameters

The results of the study of the spatio-temporal variability of the main characteristics of jet streams and turbulence zones in the upper troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere according to measurements from European geostationary meteorological satellites for the period 2007 - 2018 are presented. Their relationship with the essential parameters of the Earth’s climate system — the temperature of the troposphere, the area of sea ice, and also large-scale atmospheric phenomena is considered. It has been shown that over the past 12 years there has been a significant increase in the area of regions occupied by relatively weak and moderate turbulence and a slight decrease in areas with strong and very strong turbulence. Based on the cross-wavelet analysis in the time-frequency space, the relationships between the variations in the areas of the turbulent regions and the majority of the characteristics of jet streams are revealed. A close relationship has been established between the characteristics of jet streams and the areas of turbulent zones with the temperature of the upper troposphere. In this case, the effect of temperature on the area of turbulent zones manifests itself indirectly through the characteristics of jet streams. A significant association of variations in the average area of the jet stream and the latitudinal position of its center with the area of sea ice are noted. According to spectral and wavelet analysis of the characteristics of jet streams, along with annual and quasi-biennial oscillations, short-period oscillations are observed with periods in the range of 10-40 days, which can be interpreted as a manifestation of Rossby waves..

Composite Vertical-Motion Patterns near North American Polar–Subtropical Jet Superposition Events

AbstractA polar–subtropical jet superposition is preceded by the development of a polar cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) anomaly at high latitudes and a tropical anticyclonic PV anomaly at subtropical latitudes. A confluent large-scale flow pattern can lead to the juxtaposition of these respective PV anomalies at middle latitudes, resulting in the addition of the nondivergent circulations induced by each PV anomaly and an increase in upper-tropospheric wind speeds at the location of jet superposition. Once these PV anomalies become juxtaposed, vertical motion within the near-jet environment facilitates the advection and diabatic redistribution of tropopause-level PV, and the subsequent formation of the steep, single-step tropopause structure that characterizes a jet superposition. Given the importance of vertical motion during the formation of jet superpositions, this study adopts a quasigeostrophic (QG) diagnostic approach to quantify the production of vertical motion during three types of jet superposition events: polar dominant, eastern subtropical dominant, and western subtropical dominant. The diagnosis reveals that the geostrophic wind induced by polar cyclonic QGPV anomalies is predominantly responsible for QG vertical motion in the vicinity of jet superpositions. The QG vertical motion diagnosed from the along-isotherm component of the Q vector, which represents the vertical motion associated with synoptic-scale waves, is dominant within the near-jet environment. The QG vertical motion diagnosed from the across-isotherm component of the Q vector, which represents the vertical motion associated with frontal circulations in the vicinity of the jet, is subordinate within the near-jet environment, but is relatively more important during eastern subtropical dominant events compared to polar dominant and western subtropical dominant events.

Possible role of Southern Hemispheric sea ice in the variability of West China autumn rain

West China Autumn Rain (WCAR), the last rainy season in China associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, is prone to flooding and secondary disasters and has profound impacts on the economic society. Thus, it is of great interest to understand its variability. Through an analysis with gridded rainfall data and reanalysis data, this study reveals that the variability of WCAR is positively correlated to the boreal summer (austral winter) sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Southern Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. Such a relationship is supported by the SIC-related changes in atmospheric circulations and water vapor transport. Corresponding to a high summer SIC, both the Lake Balkhash trough and the Asian low pressure are deepened, the East Asian jet shifts northward, and the water vapor transport to West China is enhanced during the boreal autumn, providing a favorable background for the increase of WCAR, and vice versa. The potential mechanism of how the boreal summer SIC affects the autumn atmospheric situation is further investigated. Results show that the atmospheric circulation in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere possesses a seasonal persistence from the boreal summer to autumn due to the sea ice persistence. Thus, the boreal summer SIC-related anomalies in the upper-tropospheric winds over the Southern Indian and Pacific Ocean basins can persist to the following autumn and subsequently exert substantial influences on the Eurasian atmospheric circulations via two meridional teleconnections. The counterpart in the lower troposphere contributes to the water vapor transport toward West China. Certainly, this candidate mechanism is a preliminary explanation, and other processes may also act in their linkage.

Investigation of Meteorological Conditions Favourable for Formation of Thunderstorm Occurred Over Bangladesh Through Simulation by WRF-ARW Model

Investigation of meteorological conditions favorable for formation of pre-monsoon thunderstorm over Bangladesh has been conducted by simulating a selected thunderstorm case using ARW dynamic core of WRF model (WRF-ARW). A multi-cell thunderstorm formed on 30-03-2018 over the northwestern tip of Bangladesh and adjacent territories of India and moved south-southeast wards with its highest development at 09:30 UTC was selected for this study. The chosen case of thunderstorm has 3 distinct cells of which 2 cells have the width of over 100 km each and the third one located in the eastern Bangladesh and had the width of 50 km. A WRF ARW model has been applied to examine the atmospheic characteristics favorabe for genesis of selected case run in a double nested domain of resolution of 9x9 km2 in the outer domain and 3 3 km2in the inner domain. The analysis of the geopotential height field of 925 hPa level generated by WRF model at different hours of 31 March 2018 clearly indicates favourable condition with pockets of micro lows and their progression towards central to southeastern Bangladesh. The strong winds blowing from Bay of Bengal along an anticyclone over the Bay brings sufficient moisture to the north. The southerly winds meet the easterly and also westerly winds providing strong low level convergence which favors the convective activities forming cumulus cells. The orography of foothills may also enhance the convections. The wind in the upper tropospheric winds attains jet speed over these areas. The distribution of divergence and vorticity in the 925 hPa level shows the evolution of system. The distribution of precipitation shows that the spatial patterns were well captured. Vertical velocity has been plotted along the vertical-horizontal plane oriented in the east-west direction across a high rainfall cell. This shows that the highest development of narrow vertical cell extends up to 100 hPa level. Following the temporal evolution of the system, it is seen that the highest development delayed by around 2 hours. Some mitigation strategies in respect of thunderstorms and associated lighting are also discussed.
 Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 68(1): 71-77, 2020 (January)

Effects of Modified Surface Roughness Length over Shallow Waters in a Regional Model Simulation

The effects of modified sea-surface roughness length over shallow waters are examined in a regional climate simulation over East Asia centered on the Korean Peninsula, using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The control experiment calculates the sea-surface roughness length as a function of friction velocity based on the Charnock relationship. The experiment considering water depth in the sea-surface roughness length over shallow waters is compared with the control experiment. In the experiment considering water depth, the excessive near-surface wind speed over shallow waters is reduced compared to that of the control experiment. Wind speed is reduced also in the lower troposphere. The effects of modified surface roughness over shallow waters are not localized to the lower troposphere but extended into the upper troposphere. Through the vertical interaction between the lower and upper levels, upper tropospheric wind—which is underestimated in the control experiment—is enhanced in the experiment with modified sea-surface roughness length, not only over the shallow waters, but also over the entire domain. As a result, the vertical shear of zonal wind increases, leading to the enhancement of the negative meridional temperature gradient in the mid troposphere.

Impact of GNSS Signal Delay Assimilation on Short Range Weather Forecasts Over the Indian Region

AbstractRadio signals transmitted from a satellite constellation and gathered by a ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver allow computation of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD), which is related to the atmospheric moisture. This study investigates the impact of assimilating ZTD obtained from a ground‐based GNSS network on a numerical weather prediction model analyses and subsequent forecasts quality. The numerical data assimilation experiments are performed using three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, at 10‐km horizontal grid spacing for the entire month of July 2017. A comparison with European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast analyses shows a clear positive impact of ZTD assimilation on the lower to middle tropospheric moisture, upper air temperature, and middle and upper tropospheric wind; errors are reduced by as large as 4%, when compared to the model run without ZTD assimilation. The impact on the analyses and forecast quality of surface meteorological variables is mostly neutral with some indication of positive impact on surface pressure. An improvement in the rainfall forecasts is also noticed when model assimilates ZTD observations. In addition, the impact of the formulation of forward model, which calculates model equivalent of the GNSS ZTD, has been assessed on ZTD assimilation. A revised forward model has been implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting assimilation system. The revised forward model outperforms the original model for ZTD assimilation. Overall result implies that GNSS ZTD data has a good potential for improving the weather prediction and advocates the strengthening of the ground‐based GNSS network over the Indian region, which is currently very sparse.