Decadal changes of cyclone tracks in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract

Warming tropical sea surface temperatures may also change the environmental wind field, which could affect genesis, intensity and track of Tropical Cyclone (TC). In recent years under ever-increasing global warming, scientists have directed more attention to the variation in the track. In the Indian Ocean, most of the severe cyclones during pre-monsoon (April and May) and post-monsoon (October to December) seasons hit the east coast of India, causing loss of life and damage to property. The frequency of cyclones is 3 - 4 times higher over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) when compared with the Arabian Sea (AS). The cyclone tracks over BoB in October-December season, the upper tropospheric winds over the north Indian Ocean and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall exhibit large inter-annual variability. In this study an attempt has been made to examine the changes in TC tracks during October-December over BoB on decadal time scale. In addition to atmospheric parameters, oceanic parameters like SST, TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential), UOHC (upper ocean heat content), thermocline depth, appear to be the best parameters to examine the variability for last three decades.