Updated Earthquake Catalogue Research Articles

Deterministic scenarios for seismic hazard assessment in Egypt

This study is an extension of the previous works in the field of seismic hazard assessment in Egypt with the aim of making the results more accurate and effective, in view of the worst possible scenarios to assess the seismic hazard. The deterministic seismic hazard approach was applied to assess the hazard in Egypt. An updated earthquake catalog of Egypt was prepared and the aftershocks were screened and removed. All the earthquake sizes were unified to the moment magnitude scale. The earthquake catalog was used to identify and locate, accurately, the possible multi-seismotectonic scenarios in and around Egypt. The controlling earthquake was identified from the effective seismic source. Suitable ground motion equations were used to calculate the hazard from each source. Seismic hazard was calculated from each seismic source with the maximum expected earthquake and the shortest distance (worst scenario) from these sources to specific sites all over Egypt distributed on a grid with 0.45° interval. Hazard maps were produced for the peak ground acceleration and for the 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2 s spectral periods for the 50th (median) percentile level for the selected probabilities of exceedance on bedrock condition for various possible seismotectonic models. Finally, the results obtained from the worst case scenarios were compared with the published probabilistic hazard results to ensure the general level of hazard in Egypt.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Bayankhongor aimag of Mongolia

Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity is due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates, which has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events.The GSHAP project, aiming at hazard assessment on a global scale, indicates that the territory of Bayankhongor aimag, Mongolia, in Central Asia is characterized by maximum bedrock peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as medium as in range of 80 to 160cm/s2. In this study, which has been carried out within the framework of the project “Seismic microzoning map of center of 12 aimags, Mongolia”, the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Mongolia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth <50 km) seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects) earthquake catalogue for the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the Open Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (ODPSHA), which is based on the Cornell methodology. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches 93-98 cm/s2 , which in intensity corresponds to VII in MSK64 scale in the centre of Bayankhongor aimag for 475 years mean return period.

Probabilistic earthquake loss model for residential buildings in Tehran, Iran to quantify annualized earthquake loss

In this study, a comprehensive loss model using the most recent census data (2016) together with the updated earthquake catalog (till 2018) is employed to estimate the direct expected annualized loss of residential buildings in Tehran, Iran. This is an important parameter to determine insurance premium or to identify relative risk in a region. For this purpose, a fully probabilistic seismic loss model based on the stochastic event-based approach is adopted. The assessment includes the development of a robust approach to quantify the seismic hazard by taking into account dynamic soil response, compiling a high quality exposure of residential building and considering the most appropriate vulnerability models for different building classes. The result shows that average annual loss of building stock is around $0.331 billion which is about 0.29% of total exposed economic value. Also, the relative risk map of the region is presented in term of the annualized earthquake loss ratio. It demonstrates that the seismic risk in the middle and southern part of the city are much higher. In addition, a disaggregation analysis regarding the building typologies is performed to identify the most vulnerable building classes. The result indicates that the masonry and low quality steel and concrete structures with poor designing specification are the most vulnerable building classes. Majority of the buildings in southern part of Tehran are of these types, where accommodating low-income residents. The finding from this study can be used by local authorities, government and insurance sector in order to develop effective risk mitigation plans and a robust insurance scheme for Tehran, Iran. In addition, the presented approach can be applied in other cities with different socio-economic conditions.

Site-specific earthquake ground motion parameters at the southeastern part of Muscat, Sultanate of Oman

The site-specific earthquake ground motion parameters were presented for the southeastern part of Muscat governorate, including amplification factor at different periods and the values of PGA and spectral accelerations at the surface. The study starts with assessment of the seismic hazard at bedrock level using the probabilistic approach. This assessment was preformed considering an updated earthquake catalogue. The outputs of the probabilistic seismic hazard were uniform hazard spectra for return periods of 475,975 and 2475 years. Spectral matching technique was applied to define the compatible ground motion time series based on the outputs of the probabilistic approach and the deaggregation process. The representative's dynamic soil profiles were determined using the in-situ measurements of compressional and shear waves. The effects of soil deposits on the propagated ground motions time series was evaluated using the equivalent linear analysis in the frequency domain. The final results clarified that, the fundamental site period at the middle coastal parts of the area has the largest values (0.2–0.276 s). The maximum amplification factors found to be 2.76, 2.36, and 2.8 for the periods of PGA, 0.1 s, and 0.2 s, respectively. The values of PGA and spectral accelerations at the surface level are also provided.

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (MW) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude MW. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737–2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Artificial neural networks (ANN) and stochastic techniques to estimate earthquake occurrences in Northeast region of India

The paper presents the probability of earthquake occurrences and forecasting of earthquake magnitudes size in northeast India, using four stochastic models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weilbull and Log-logistic) and artificial neural networks, respectively considering updated earthquake catalogue of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737 to 2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, the conditional probabilities for the identified seismic source zones (12 sources) have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters for various combinations of elapsed time (T) and time interval (t). It is observed that for elapsed time T=0 years, EBT & Kabaw zone shows highest conditional probability and it reaches 0.7 to 0.91 after about small time interval of 3-6 years (2014-2017; since last earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 occurred in the year 2011) for an earthquake magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0.Whereas, Sylhet zone shows lowest value of conditional probability among all twelve seismic source zones and it reaches 0.7 after about large time interval of 48 years (year 2045, since last event of Mw ≥ 6.0 occurred in the year 1999). While for elapsed time up to 2016 from the occurrence of the last earthquake of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0, the MBT & MCT region shows highest conditional probability among all twelve seismic source zones and it reaches 0.88 to 0.91 after about 6-7 (2022-2023) years and in the same year (2022-2023) Sylhet zone shows lowest conditional probability and it reaches 0.14-0.17. However, we proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique used to predict the possible magnitude of future earthquake in the identified seismic source zones is based on feedforward backpropagation neural network model with single hidden layer. For conditional probability of earthquake occurrence above 0.8, the neural network gives the magnitude of future earthquake as Mw 6.6 in Churachandpur-Mao fault (CMF) region in the years 2014 to 2017 and for Myanmar Central Basin (MCB) region it gives magnitude of future earthquake as Mw 7.0 in the years 2013 to 2016 and for Eastern Boundary Thrust (EBT) & Kabaw region it gives magnitude of future earthquake as Mw 6.4 in the years 2015-2018. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in Churachandpur-Mao fault (CMF) region Myanmar Central Basin (MCB) region and EBT & Kabaw region, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the ANN model yields good prediction accuracy.

Assessment of macroseismic intensity in the Nile basin, Egypt

This work intends to assess deterministic seismic hazard and risk analysis in terms of the maximum expected intensity map of the Egyptian Nile basin sector. Seismic source zone model of Egypt was delineated based on updated compatible earthquake catalog in 2015, focal mechanisms, and the common tectonic elements. Four effective seismic source zones were identified along the Nile basin. The observed macroseismic intensity data along the basin was used to develop intensity prediction equation defined in terms of moment magnitude. Expected maximum intensity map was proven based on the developed intensity prediction equation, identified effective seismic source zones, and maximum expected magnitude for each zone along the basin. The earthquake hazard and risk analysis was discussed and analyzed in view of the maximum expected moment magnitude and the maximum expected intensity values for each effective source zone. Moderate expected magnitudes are expected to put high risk at Cairo and Aswan regions. The results of this study could be a recommendation for the planners in charge to mitigate the seismic risk at these strategic zones of Egypt.

2017 One‐Year Seismic‐Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes

ABSTRACT We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude ( M ) ≥4 and 3 M ≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M ≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M ≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Himachal Pradesh, India. Part II. Hazard Estimation

This article presents site-specific probable seismic hazard of the Himachal Pradesh province, situated in a seismically active region of northwest Himalaya, using the ground motion relations presented in a companion article. Seismic recurrence parameters for all the documented probable sources are established from an updated earthquake catalogue. The contour maps of probable spectral acceleration at 0, 0.2, and 1 s (5% damping) are presented for 475 and 2475 years return periods. Also, the hazard curves and uniform hazard response spectrums are presented for all the important cities in this province. Results indicate that the present codal provision underestimates the seismic hazard at cities of Bilaspur, Shimla, Hamirpur, Chamba, Mandi, and Solan. In addition, regions near Bilaspur and Chamba exhibit higher hazard levels than what is reported in literature.

Updated Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Values for Egypt

Seismic hazard in terms of mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values has been computed for Egypt using both historical and instrumental earthquake data. For this purpose, an updated earthquake catalog, spanning the time period from 2200 B.C. to 2013, has been compiled for Egypt as well as its surrounding regions and is prepared to be used in a new probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment of Egypt. The earthquakes sizes were unified in terms of the moment magnitude scale. A new seismic source model for the seismic activity in and around Egypt, consisting of a total of 88 seismic zones (for shallow‐ and intermediate‐depth seismicity), was considered in this new assessment. The seismicity parameters have been specifically computed for 35 seismic sources covering the Egyptian territory and the Eastern Mediterranean region. A logic‐tree design was set up to consider the epistemic uncertainty in the Gutenberg–Richter b ‐value, maximum possible magnitude ( M max), and the selected ground‐motion prediction equations. Seismic‐hazard computations for rock‐site conditions with 10% and 5% probability of exceedance in 50 years were carried out. In addition, uniform hazard spectra for twelve, among the most important and populated cities in Egypt, are computed and compared with the most recent Egyptian building code values. It is interesting to highlight that the maximum hazard values are observed at the Gulf of Aqaba region, specifically around the epicentral location of the biggest Egyptian recorded earthquake of 22 November 1995 ( M w 7.2) Aqaba earthquake. The obtained seismic‐hazard values for Nuweiba city (located in this region) for mean PGA and SA (0.1 s) are 0.29 g and 0.74 g , respectively, for a return period of 475 years.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

<p>Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events. The GSHAP project (1999), aiming at a hazard assessment on a global scale, indicated that the region of Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as high as 9 m/s<sup>2</sup>. In this study, carried out within the framework of the EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia), the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Central Asia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth < 50 km) seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects) earthquake catalog for the region. The seismic hazard is calculated in terms of macroseismic intensity (MSK-64), intended to be used for the seismic risk maps of the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which is an open source software tool developed by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) foundation. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches an intensity of around 8 in southern Tien Shan for 475 years mean return period. The maximum hazard estimated for some of the cities in the region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent and Almaty, is between 7 and 8 (7-8), 8.0, 7.0 and 8.0 macroseismic Intensity, respectively, for 475 years mean return period, using different approaches. The results of different methods for assessing the level of seismic hazard are compared and their underlying methodologies are discussed.</p>

Tien Shan Geohazards Database: Landslide susceptibility analysis

This paper is the second part of a new geohazards analysis applied to a large part of the Tien Shan, Central Asia, focused on landslide susceptibility computations that are based on recently compiled geographic, geological and geomorphological data. The core data are a digital elevation model, an updated earthquake catalogue, an active fault map as well as a new landslide inventory. The most recently added digital data are a new simplified geological map, an annual precipitation map, as well as river and road network maps that were produced for the Kyrgyz and Tajik parts of the Tien Shan. On the basis of these records we determine landslide densities with respect to morphological (M), geological (G), river distance (R), precipitation (P), earthquake (E) and fault (F) distance factors. Correlations were also established between scarp locations and the slope angle, distance to rivers, curvature. These correlations show that scarps tend to be located on steeper slopes, farther from rivers and on more convex terrain than the entire landslides. On the basis of the landslide density values computed for each class of the aforementioned factors, two landslide susceptibility maps are created according to the Landslide Factor analysis: the first one considers correlations between the landslide occurrences and the first four factors (MGRP); the second one is based on the first map (MGRP) combined with the seismo-tectonic influence (+E+F) on landslide distributions. From the comparison of these two maps with actual landslide distributions we infer that the distances to rivers as well as to faults and past earthquakes most strongly constrain the susceptibility of slopes to landslides. We highlight several zones where the landslide susceptibilities computed for the MGRP+E+F factors fit better the observed concentration of landslides than those computed for the MGRP factors alone. For a few zones, both maps produce high landslide susceptibilities that do not well reflect the observed low sub-regional landslide activity; for some cases, we consider that some influencing factors must not have been well taken into consideration, for others we show that we simply had missed landslide detections.At the scale of the mountain range, the computed landslide susceptibility maps fit the observed landslide distributions relatively well, but these maps only represent the spatial component of landslide hazards. Temporal aspects are not considered by this analysis.

Tien Shan Geohazards Database: Earthquakes and landslides

In this paper we present new and review already existing landslide and earthquake data for a large part of the Tien Shan, Central Asia. For the same area, only partial databases for sub-regions have been presented previously. They were compiled and new data were added to fill the gaps between the databases. Major new inputs are products of the Central Asia Seismic Risk Initiative (CASRI): a tentative digital map of active faults (even with indication of characteristic or possible maximum magnitude) and the earthquake catalogue of Central Asia until 2009 that was now updated with USGS data (to May 2014). The new compiled landslide inventory contains existing records of 1600 previously mapped mass movements and more than 1800 new landslide data. Considering presently available seismo-tectonic and landslide data, a target region of 1200km (E–W) by 600km (N–S) was defined for the production of more or less continuous geohazards information. This target region includes the entire Kyrgyz Tien Shan, the South-Western Tien Shan in Tajikistan, the Fergana Basin (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) as well as the Western part in Uzbekistan, the North-Easternmost part in Kazakhstan and a small part of the Eastern Chinese Tien Shan (for the zones outside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, only limited information was available and compiled).On the basis of the new landslide inventory and the updated earthquake catalogue, the link between landslide and earthquake activity is analysed. First, size–frequency relationships are studied for both types of geohazards, in terms of Gutenberg–Richter Law for the earthquakes and in terms of probability density function for the landslides. For several regions and major earthquake events, case histories are presented to outline further the close connection between earthquake and landslide hazards in the Tien Shan. From this study, we concluded first that a major hazard component is still now insufficiently known for both types of geohazards – and even totally unknown for most giant landslides: the time information. Thus, dating rockslides and any large mass movement is a crucial factor in order to better constrain related hazards. Second, we highlight the role of coupled hazards in the Tien Shan – inside the mountain range the largest disasters were caused by earthquake-triggered landslides and massive earth flows. Therefore, it is of prime importance for these mountain regions to complement single hazard assessment by coupled hazard scenarios. On the basis of these scenarios, risk evaluations may then be completed considering direct impacts on artificial dams, hydropower schemes, mining and road infrastructure as well as remote effects from possible dam breaches and mobilisation of mining and nuclear waste storages. Basic hazard and risk components are partly analysed in this paper and partly in a companion paper ‘Tien Shan geohazards database: Landslide susceptibility and impacts’.

Comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states

Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G–R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Jamaica

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed to generate seismic hazard maps for Jamaica. The analysis was then conducted using a standard logic-tree approach that allowed systematically taking into account the model-based (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty and its influence on the computed ground motion parameters. Hazard computations have been performed using a grid of sites with a space of 0.05 degrees. Two different computation methodologies have been adopted: the standard approach based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic sources and the zone-free approach, which overcomes the ambiguities related with the definition of the seismic sources solely reflecting the characteristics of the earthquake catalogue. A comprehensive and updated earthquake catalogue for Jamaica has been compiled for the years 1551-2010 and new empirical relationships amongst magnitudes MW-MS and MW-mb have been developed for the region. Uniform hazard spectra and their uncertainty have been calculated for the horizontal component of ground motion for rock site conditions and five return periods (95, 475, 975, 2,475 and 4,975 years) and spectral accelerations for 34 structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s, and 5% of critical damping. The spectral accelerations have been calculated to allow the definition of seismic hazard in Jamaica according to the International Building Code 2012. The disaggregation analysis for Kingston Metropolitan Area suggests that the magnitude-distance pair that contributes most to the hazard corresponds to events with M 7.8 and M 7.0 in the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault and the Jamaican Faults at a distance of 28 km and 18 km for short and long period structures respectively corresponding to 2,475 years return period. However, for long period structures, a substantial contribution is found for a M 8.2 at a distance of 198 km in the Oriente Fault Zone.

Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

Abstract. Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration) of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment at the Eastern Caribbean Islands

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed to compute probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the eastern Caribbean region (10° N-19° N, 59° W-64° W), which includes in the north the Leeward Islands (from Anguilla to Dominica) and in the south the Windward Islands (from Martinique to Grenada), Barbados, Trinidad, and Tobago. The analysis has been conducted using a standard logic-tree approach that allowed systematically taking into account the model-based (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty and its influence on the computed ground motion param- eters. Hazard computations have been performed using a grid of sites with a space resolution of 0.025 degrees covering the territory of the considered islands. Two different computation methodologies have been adopted: the standard Cornell-McGuire approach (Cornell, 1968; McGuire, 1976) based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic zones (SZ), and the zone-free approach developed by Woo (1996), which overcomes the ambiguities related with the definition of seis- mic sources. The interplay and complexities between shallow crustal, intraplate, and interface subduction seismicity of the Caribbean region have been thoroughly investigated. By merging all available databases, a comprehensive and updated earthquake catalog for the region has been compiled. Also, a thorough investigation has been undertaken to identify the most suitable ground motion prediction equa- tions to be used in the analyses. Uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the horizontal component of ground motion (rock and level site conditions), 4 return periods (RP) (95-, 475-, 975-, and 2475-yr), and 22 spectral accelerations (SA) with structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s. SAs at 0.2 and 1.0 s for 2475-yr RP have been calculated to allow the definition of seismic hazard in the region of study according to the International Building Code (IBC, International Code Council (ICC), 2009).

On structured and diffuse seismicity, stiffness of earthquake foci, and nonlinearity of magnitude recurrence graphs

Geological, geophysical and seismogeological studies are now conducted in a more detail and thus provide for determining seismic sources with higher accuracy, from the first meters to first dozens of meters [Waldhauser, Schaff, 2008]. It is now possible to consider uncertainty ellipses of earthquake hypocenters, that are recorded in the updated Earthquake Catalogue, as surfaces of earthquake focus generators. In our article, it is accepted that a maximum horizontal size of an uncertainty ellipse corresponds to an area of a focus generator, and seismic events are thus classified into two groups, earthquakes with nonstiff and stiff foci. Criteria of such a classification are two limits of elastic strain and brittle strain in case of uniaxial (3⋅10–5) or omnidirectional (10–6) compression. The criteria are established from results of analyses of parameters of seismic dislocations and earthquake foci with regard to studies of surface parameters and deformation parameters of fault zones. It is recommendable that the uniaxial compression criterion shall be applied to zones of interaction between tectonic plates, and the unilateral compression criterion shall be applied to low active (interplate) areas. Sample cases demonstrate the use of data sets on nonstiff and stiff foci for separate evaluation of magnitude reoccurrence curves, analyses of structured and dissipated seismicity, review of the physical nature of nonlinearity of recurrence curves and conditions of preparation of strong earthquakes. Changes of parameters of the recurrence curves with changes of data collection square areas are considered. Reviewed are changes of parameters of the recurrence curves during preparation for the Japan major earthquake of 11 March 2011 prior to and after the major shock. It is emphasized that it is important to conduct even more detailed geological and geophysical studies and to improve precision and sensitivity of local seismological monitoring networks in zones of nuclear stations and other hazardous facilities. It is noted that a list of parameters recorded in earthquake catalogues needs to be extended. Based on the above, it will be possible to ensure proper monitoring of stability of the seismic process during construction, operations and decommissioning of nuclear stations.