Optimistic Bias Research Articles

Relationship of Optimism Biases and Burnout with Work Stress in Mental Health Professionals: The Mediating Role of Psychological Well-being and Moderating Role of Resilience

Relationship of Optimism Biases and Burnout with Work Stress in Mental Health Professionals: The Mediating Role of Psychological Well-being and Moderating Role of Resilience

Influence of detector temperature on Doppler signal quality of laser Doppler velocimeter

Enhancing the quality of Doppler signal holds paramount importance for the utilization of Laser Doppler Veolcimeter in velocity measurement of high-speed vehicles, underwater vehicles, and aerial vehicles. This paper discusses the variation of Doppler signal and noise with bias voltage at different temperatures, ultimately deriving the relationship between the signal-to-noise ratio of Doppler signal and detector temperature as well as bias voltage. And a linear correlation is established between detector temperature and optimal bias voltage. Furthermore, A bias control circuit for temperature compensation is designed for maximizing signal-to-noise ratio of Laser Doppler Velocimeter under varying temperatures.

Telling Tales: Using Vignettes to Overcome Optimism Bias in Farm Health and Safety Attitudinal Studies

ABSTRACT Objective Measuring attitudes of farmers to safe farming practices using quantitative causal relationship approaches is central to improving understanding of (un)safe practices. This knowledge is important in the development of effective farm safety interventions. However, the accuracy of quantitative attitudinal studies in explaining farmers’ decision-making faces a potential measurement challenge, i.e. a high level of optimism bias. In this paper, we present research that develops and tests farm safety attitudinal questions that are framed around “real-life” farming practices with the objective of reducing optimism bias. Methods We apply construal level theory (CLT) to support the design of vignettes that reflect common risk scenarios faced by farmers. Applying qualitative analysis of 274 fatal farm incidents that occurred in Ireland between 2004 and 2018 we identify the occupational behaviors (what farmers do), social (who are farmers), spatial (where farming takes place), and temporal (when farming happens) dimensions of risks resulting in most deaths. The results informed subsequent co-design activities with farm safety experts and farm advisors to develop “real-life” scenarios, attitudinal questions, and response options. The questionnaire was piloted and subsequently implemented to collect data from a sample of 381 farmers with either tractors or livestock. The results of the survey were compared to previous attitudinal research on farmer’s attitudes to safety in Ireland to establish if there was as follows: i) increased variance in the responses, and ii) a statistically significant difference in the attitudes of respondents compared to the results reported in previous studies. Results The findings established that when farmers were provided with real-life scenarios, their responses were less optimistic and more varied, i.e. there was a greater range of responses, compared to previous studies. Conclusion Applying CTL to the development of attitudinal survey instruments anchors attitudinal questions within farming specific occupational, social, spatial, and temporal contexts. The use of vignettes that draw on real-life scenarios offers the potential for improved design of surveys that seek to understand farmer/worker practices. The results suggest that this approach can improve the measurement of attitudes to farm safety.

Balancing ethical norms and duties for the introduction of new medicines through conditional marketing authorization: a research agenda.

The European Medicines Agency's conditional marketing authorization (CMA) aims to expedite patient access to medicines for unmet medical needs by shifting a part of the drug development process post-authorization. We highlight ethical issues surrounding CMA, comprising (i) the complexity of defining unmet medical need; (ii) poor understanding of CMA and its impact on informed consent; (iii) hope versus unrealistic optimism; (iv) implications of prolonged post-authorization studies and potential patient harm; (v) rights and duties of patients surrounding participation in post-authorization studies; (vi) access to previously authorized CMA medicines; and (vii) the "benefit slippage" phenomenon, defined as the gradual shift of strict criteria to less strict criteria. We propose a comprehensive research agenda to address these ethical issues, and stress the need for multi-stakeholder engagement to ensure patient-centered use of CMA.

Hope for good luck" during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: The situation with COVID-19 is unexpected and unpredictable, and the consequences are tragic. The number of sick and dead has increased globally, including in Ukraine, and it is reasonable to assume that this will have a certain effect on the mental state of people, including their level of anxiety. Therefore, this study focuses on measuring the level of state anxiety and determining its relationship with the perception of various aspects of COVID-19 by the population of Ukraine. Material and methods: The survey was conducted by telephonic interview. Respondents were recruited randomly in the period from 17.04 to 22.05.2020. The sample consists of 412 people from all over Ukraine. State anxiety, which is dynamic and reflects the level of anxiety on the State Anxiety Scale from The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) at a particular time, was studied. Results: Differences have been traced in responses of male and female respondents, where this indicator was higher among females. People tend to have a different subjective attitude towards the likelihood of finding themselves in the same situation, which for objective reasons is relatively equal for everyone who is in the same pandemic environment; they tend to believe they are more likely to protect themselves from the disease than those around them. Individuals tend to overestimate both their ability to achieve a certain success in the situation and the favorable circumstances ("hope for good luck"). There is a certain correlation between this assessment and the level of state anxiety (correlation = 0.2328 (p <0.01)), i.e. the higher the anxiety, the higher a person estimates the probability of contracting the disease themselves or of others falling ill. There are two extremes in the Ukrainian society: the part of the population that reasonably estimates their place in the world (if it is a global problem, and I am a part of the world then this is my problem) constitutes 42% of respondents who participated in the study; the part of the population that tends to separate themselves from the society as a whole (state anxiety in this group is lower) – this is a problem of the world but not mine (and am I a part of the world?) – constitutes 41%. Conclusions: State anxiety is almost independent of characteristics, such as age, gender, or place of residence, but this anxiety differs among people with different views of themselves and their place in society, which necessitates some in-depth research of other personal factors in parallel with state anxiety that could further clarify the situation. Keywords: COVID-19, anxiety, optimism bias, Ukraine

Examining the Impact of Virtual Health Influencers on Young Adults’ Willingness to Engage in Liver Cancer Prevention: Insights from Parasocial Relationship Theory

The emergence of virtual influencers and AI doctors has significantly increased the attention of Chinese users, especially their health awareness and cancer health literacy. In our current study, guided by parasocial relationship theory, we examined the psychological antecedents that influence Chinese young adults’ willingness to engage in liver cancer prevention. Specifically, we aimed to examine the mediated mechanism of reduced unrealistic optimism within this relationship. A total of 252 respondents participated in this study, and the valid data were analyzed using hierarchical regression and mediation analysis to test our hypotheses. The results demonstrated three positive correlations between psychological factors (including perceived severity, parasocial relationship, and response efficacy) and Chinese young adults’ willingness to engage in liver cancer prevention. Furthermore, we found that reduced unrealistic optimism mediated these relationships. These findings provide valuable practical insights for Chinese health departments and experts to develop effective health campaign strategies that utilize multiple media platforms for optimal promotion.

The Universal Optimism of the Self-Evidencing Mind.

Karl Friston's free-energy principle casts agents as self-evidencing through active inference. This implies that decision-making, planning and information-seeking are, in a generic sense, 'wishful'. We take an interdisciplinary perspective on this perplexing aspect of the free-energy principle and unpack the epistemological implications of wishful thinking under the free-energy principle. We use this epistemic framing to discuss the emergence of biases for self-evidencing agents. In particular, we argue that this elucidates an optimism bias as a foundational tenet of self-evidencing. We allude to a historical precursor to some of these themes, interestingly found in Machiavelli's oeuvre, to contextualise the universal optimism of the free-energy principle.

MAM-STM: A software for autonomous control of single moieties towards specific surface positions

In this publication we introduce MAM-STM, a software to autonomously manipulate arbitrary moieties towards specific positions on a metal surface utilizing the tip of a scanning tunneling microscope (STM). Finding the optimal manipulation parameters for a specific moiety is challenging and time consuming, even for human experts. MAM-STM combines autonomous data acquisition with a sophisticated Q-learning implementation to determine the optimal bias voltage, the z-approach distance, and the tip position relative to the moiety. This then allows to arrange single molecules and atoms at will. In this work, we provide a tutorial based on a simulated response to offer a comprehensive explanation on how to use and customize MAM-STM. Additionally, we assess the performance of the machine learning algorithm by benchmarking it within a simulated stochastic environment. PROGRAM SUMMARYProgram title: MAM-STMCPC Library link to program files: https://doi.org/10.17632/gtf3bt4v47.1Developer's repository link: https://gitlab.tugraz.at/software_public/mam_stm.gitLicensing provisions: GNU General Public License 3 (GPL)Programming language: Python 3Nature of problem: Achieving precise control over the arrangement of individual molecules on surfaces is essential for advancing nanofabrication and understanding molecular interaction processes. While self-assembly offers a method for forming nanostructures, achieving arbitrary arrangements of moieties remains difficult. Current approaches, such as scanning probe microscopy (SPM), require extensive manual intervention and precise control is difficult to achieve consistently due to the stochastic nature of quantum mechanical systems at the nanoscale. Thus, learning to manipulate several moieties in order to build even relatively small structures is challenging and time consuming and the automation through conventional expert systems is hindered by the lack of prior knowledge about the surface-moiety interaction processes.Solution method: This scenario is ideal for machine learning algorithms, like reinforcement learning (RL), which do not require an underlying model but are able to autonomously learn the optimal manipulation parameters by performing manipulations directly at the machine. Introducing MAM-STM, which stands for Molecular and Atomic Manipulation via Scanning Tunneling Microscopy. MAM-STM allows to control molecules and atoms by learning the manipulation parameters for either vertical or lateral manipulations. However, the vast number of manipulation parameter combinations and the inefficient learning procedure of RL agents exhibit several challenges. MAM-STM overcomes these challenges with an autonomous masking routine that eliminates manipulation parameters that induce structural changes to the moiety or lift it off the surface. Additionally, a sophisticated Q-learning approach is developed that speeds up the learning procedure, enabling molecular manipulations within one day of training.

Study on The Implementation Intention of Health Protection Behavior of College Students in Epidemic Situation of Infectious Diseases

From the perspective of social cognitive theory, this paper refines and integrates the theory of protective motivation, the theory of planned behavior and the individual and social environment factors in risk research, a comprehensive analytical framework was built to predict the implementation intention of public health behaviors. Through the investigation of the college students during the epidemic of Covid-19, we found that the willingness of the public to carry out health behaviors was influenced by two kinds of factors: external social environment and individual internal conditions. As far as the external environment is concerned, perceived normative influence of “Significant others” and informational influence from mass media can positively promote the implementation intention of health protection behavior. At the same time, media attention can also indirectly affect the public's willingness to carry out health behaviors through the mediating effects of self-efficacy and coping efficacy, respectively. As far as internal factors are concerned, self-efficacy is the most powerful direct factor to predict individuals' health behaviors. The existence of cognitive deficit and optimism bias results in the failure of the predictive power of the element of threat assessment on the willingness to carry out health behaviors, however, perceived severity can have a negative effect on health behavior intention through the mediation of the “Avoidance” concept. The study also found that the emotional response not only positively affected the intention to carry out healthy behaviors independently of the cognitive assessment process, but also played a positive moderating role between media attention and the intention to carry out healthy behaviors, however, improper risk concept may have a blocking effect on the implementation intention of health behavior.

The Paradox of Aging-Related Fears: Fear of Loneliness in Old Age as a Motivator for Loneliness Preventive Activities

Introduction: Aging is often seen as a challenging process, prompting individuals to form emotional reactions in response to the perceived challenges associated with growing older, manifested as aging-related fears. The present study focuses on the fear of loneliness in old age, a significant concern considering the socioemotional importance of close relationships in later life. Drawing from proactive coping theory, the study explores the association between fear of loneliness and aging preparation. This research aimed to investigate whether the fear of loneliness motivates individuals to engage in activities aimed at preventing loneliness in old age. For exploratory purposes, we consider both linear and nonlinear effects at the interindividual level, as well as the intraindividual-level differences between fear levels and behavioral outcomes. In addition, we also investigate the moderating role of trait neuroticism in these associations. Methods: Data from the “Ageing as Future (AAF)” project in Germany (N = 1,183) spanning from 2012 to 2023 were utilized. A multilevel model considered both intra- and interindividual variations, incorporating time-varying variables and covariates. Results: Linear mixed model analysis revealed that increased fear of loneliness corresponded to heightened engagement in preventive activities linearly, while a quadratic term indicated an inverted U-shaped relationship. The inclusion of occasion-specific deviation scores showed that individuals were more inclined to engage in preventive activities when experiencing heightened fear of loneliness than usual. This impact of deviation in fear perception was particularly evident among those with high levels of trait neuroticism. Conclusion: The study reveals that fear of loneliness in old age is associated with proactive engagement in preventive activities, with those prone to higher levels of fear or worry being particularly affected. These results emphasize the importance of a moderate level of fear in driving action without succumbing to excessive pessimism or unrealistic optimism. The findings contribute to understanding the motivational role of aging-related fears and hold implications for gerontological practices, emphasizing the need for a balanced fear perception in addressing potential negative impacts of aging. Future research could explore moderators and long-term consequences of motivational aging-related fears.

Winning Exposure and Positive Illusions Among Chinese Lottery Gamblers: Moderating Effects of Lottery Winning Experience and Socioeconomic Status.

Positive illusions and winning exposure are key factors leading to problem lottery gambling, but few studies have examined the relationships between them. 402 Chinese lottery gamblers was conducted with the Winning Exposure Questionnaire, the Positive illusion Questionnaire, the Winning Experience Questionnaire, and the Social and Economic Status Questionnaire to investigate the relationship between winning exposure and positive illusions as well as the moderating role of winning experience and socioeconomic status. The results showed that winning exposure can significantly and positively predict the positive illusions (optimism bias, better than average bias, and illusion of control) of lottery gamblers. The highest winning amount and subjective socioeconomic status significantly moderated the relationship between winning exposure and optimism bias. That was to say, for lottery gamblers with smaller maximum winning amount and lower subjective socioeconomic status, the association between winning exposure and optimism bias was stronger. Furthermore, the moderating effect of highest winning amount in the relationship between winning exposure and better than average bias, and the moderating effects of occupational status and subjective socioeconomic status in the relationship between winning exposure and illusion of control were marginally significant.

Revisiting Project Delivery Performance: Evidence from Swedish Transport Infrastructure

This study of Swedish road and rail project performance challenges understanding of project success and presents findings that run counter to the widely held position that transport infrastructure delivery performance and outcomes are persistently poor. Both road and rail investments proved economically profitable and were typically delivered to budget, evidence that questions theory claiming optimism bias and malicious agency dynamics such as strategic misrepresentation are endemic in decision-making during planning and persistently cause poor project performance. Summary findings on the performance of Swedish transport infrastructure projects are: 93% of road projects achieved intended benefits, 86% returned positive net present value, and cost overrun was typically 2.7%. Road projects typically achieve a net present value of 1.6 against an estimate of 0.6. 70% of rail projects achieved intended benefits, 63% returned positive net present value, and typical cost performance was -1.8% underrun. This contribution opens new avenues for research by scholars to explain this apparent success and why some projects, even in Sweden, fail.

Optimism bias in susceptibility to phishing attacks: an empirical study

Purpose Researchers looking for ways to change the insecure behaviour that results in phishing have considered multiple possible reasons for such behaviour. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to understand the role of optimism bias (OB – defined as a cognitive bias), which characterises overly optimistic or unrealistic individuals, to ensure secure behaviour. Research that focused on issues such as personality traits, trust, attitude and Security, Education, Training and Awareness (SETA) was considered. Design/methodology/approach This study built on a recontextualized version of the theory of planned behaviour to evaluate the influence that optimism bias has on phishing susceptibility. To model the data, an analysis was performed on 226 survey responses from a South African financial services organisation using partial least squares (PLS) path modelling. Findings This study found that overly optimistic employees were inclined to behave insecurely, while factors such as attitude and trust significantly influenced the intention to behave securely. Practical implications Our contribution to practice seeks to enhance the effectiveness of SETA by identifying and addressing the optimism bias weakness to deliver a more successful training outcome. Originality/value Our study enriches the Information Systems literature by evaluating the effect of a cognitive bias on phishing susceptibility and offers a contextual explanation of the resultant behaviour.

Unrealistic optimism among university students

يستهدف البحث التعرف على: 1-التفاؤل غير الواقعي لدى طلبة الجامعة . 2-دلالة الفروق الاحصائية في التفاؤل غير الواقعي تبعا لمتغير الجنس (ذكور- اناث) والتخصص (علمي _ انساني). ولتحقيق اهداف البحث قامت الباحثة بأعداد مقياس التفاؤل غير الواقعي وفقا للخلفية النظرية النفسية وتكونت عينة البحث من (٤٠٠) طالبا وطالبة من طلبة جامعة واسط في (كليات التربية للعلوم الانسانية، العلوم) وتم اختيارهم بالطريقة العشوائية الطبقية بأسلوب التوزيع المتساوي، للعام الدراسي ٢٠٢١/٢٠٢٢ ، وبعد تطبيق الاختبار على عينة البحث ومعالجة البيانات إحصائيا بأستعمال الحقيبة الاحصائية spss توصل البحث إلى النتائج الاتية: 1.يتمتع طلبة الجامعة بالتفاؤل غير الواقعي . لا يوجد فرق في التفاؤل غير الواقعي لدى طلبة الجامعة تبعا لمتغير الجنس (ذكور، اناث)، يوجد فرق في التفاؤل غير الواقعي لدى طلبة الجامعة تبعا لمتغير التخصص (علمي، انساني) . وبناءا على النتائج التي توصل اليها البحث الحالي، تم التوصل إلى مجموعة من الاستنتاجات، كما أوصت الباحثة ببعض التوصيات والمقترحات.

A new model of thermo-mechanical actuation for twisted and coiled polymer muscles with initial curvature

The twisted and coiled polymer (TCP) artificial muscle is one type of novel soft actuator for mimicking natural skeletal muscle that can provide large linear and torsional actuation and energy density. Twisting and coiling are the pivotal steps in fabricating TCP muscles. The influence of twisting on the actuation response of TCP muscles has been extensively investigated recently. However, the influence of coiling remains unclear. Based on the finite strain theory, we establish a new thermo-mechanical actuation model for TCP muscles with initial curvature. The theoretical predictions based on the model align well with the finite element simulations, accurately capturing the actuation response of thermally-activated TCP muscles. It is revealed that twisting contributes positively to the actuation, while coiling has a passive effect. Geometrical parameters, such as the helix radius and helix angle, can effectively regulate the actuation performance of TCP muscles. Furthermore, an optimal bias angle is identified that maximizes both the recovery torque and the linear actuation. This study sheds light on the structural optimization design of TCP muscles.

Decoupled differentiable graph neural architecture search

The differentiable graph neural architecture search (GNAS) effectively designs graph neural networks (GNNs) efficiently and automatically with excellent performance based on different graph data distributions. Given a GNN search space containing multiple GNN component operation candidates, the differentiable GNAS method builds a mixed supernet using learnable architecture parameters multiplied by the GNN component operation candidates. When the mixed supernet completes optimization, the mixed supernet is pruned based on the best architecture parameters to efficiently identify the optimal GNN architecture in the GNN search space. However, the multiplicative relationship between the architecture parameters and the GNN component operation candidates introduces a coupled optimization bias into the weight optimization process of the mixed supernet GNN component operation candidates. This bias results in differentiable GNAS performance degradation. To solve the problem of coupled optimization bias in the previous differentiable GNAS method, we propose the Decoupled Differentiable Graph Neural Architecture Search (D2GNAS). It utilizes the Gumbel distribution as a bridge to decouple the weights optimization of supernet GNN component candidate operation and architecture parameters for constructing the decoupled differentiable GNN architecture sampler. The sampler is capable of selecting promising GNN architectures based on architecture parameters treated as sampling probabilities, and it is further optimized through the validation gradients derived from the sampled GNN architectures. Simultaneously, D2GNAS builds a single-path supernet with a pruning strategy to compress the supernet progressively to improve search efficiency further. We conduct extensive experiments on multiple benchmark graphs. The experimental findings demonstrate that D2GNAS outperforms all established baseline methods, both manual GNN and GNAS methods, in terms of performance. Additionally, D2GNAS has a lower time complexity than previous differentiable GNAS methods. Based on the fair GNN search space, it achieves an average 5x efficiency improvement. Codes are available at https://github.com/AutoMachine0/D2GNAS.

Effect of temperature softening on the actuation performance of twisted and coiled polymer muscles

Twisted and coiled polymer (TCP) artificial muscles represent a promising class of actuators capable of emulating natural skeletal muscle, offering substantial linear actuation and energy density. The actuation characteristics of the thermally-activated TCP muscle and twisted fiber are characterized experimentally, emphasizing the influence of the temperature-softening effect. We find that the recovered torque of twisted fiber increases monotonically with temperature while showing a non-monotonical variation with the fiber bias angle. The variations of actuation strain and end torque with three structural parameters of TCP muscles, i.e., fiber bias angle, helical angle, and spring index, are comprehensively investigated. An optimal bias angle and spring index are present. A significant temperature-softening effect of precursor fiber is observed; a polymer becomes softer and more pliable as the temperature increases. A thermo-mechanical model for predicting the effect of temperature-softening on TCP muscle is established and validated with experimental data. This work facilitates precise control and guides the structural optimization design of the thermally-activated TCP muscle.

A Serial Cross-Sectional Study Investigating Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Perception and Protective Behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Protective behavior is crucial and needed when crisis conditions occur, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study wanted to examine whether (1) unrealistic optimism is significantly correlated to risk perception; (2) risk perception significantly affects protective behavior (3) risk perception mediates the relationship between unrealistic optimism and protective behavior and (4) whether they (unrealistic optimism, risk perception, protective behavior) are sifted from early phase to middle phase of COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia context. This study used a cross-sectional quantitative method, involving 549 respondents (age mean 26.02) obtained through a nonprobability (accidental) sampling technique. The study was divided into two-time windows; study I during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic and study II when the pandemic had been running for more than 1 year. The results confirmed there was a relationship between unrealistic optimism and protective behavior, risk perception and protective behavior, but risk perception does not mediate the relationship between unrealistic optimism and protective behavior. There was a shift in the level of unrealistic optimism, risk perception, and protective behavior over time, specifically between Study I and Study II. Respondents' unrealistic optimism in Study I was at a higher level compared to Study II. The risk perception of respondents has increased along with the longer duration of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the level of protective behavior of respondents has decreased along with the longer the pandemic lasts.

코로나19에 대한 낙관적 편견에 영향을 미치는 요인

The purpose of this study is to figure out the factors that affect optimistic bias of COVID-19 risk. This study investigated the effects of media use, interpersonal communication, and self-efficacy, risk characteristics and social trust on two dimensions of the optimistic bias, vulnerability and general risk. The finding showed that optimistic bias, in the dimension of vulnerability, was affected by mass media use(+), interpersonal communication(-), self-efficacy(+), and uncertainty(+), and optimistic bias, in the dimension of general risk, was influenced by mass media use(+) and fatality(-). Furthermore it indicated that social trust was not the significant factor of optimistic bias in both dimensions. This study suggested that mass media use, interpersonal communication and self-efficacy as well as risk characteristics were the major factors affecting optimistic bias of COVID-19 risk. Therefore, it expands a theoretical ground for how optimistic bias is created and provides a meaningful insight on how to reduce optimistic bias and to promote preventive behavior for the public healthcare practitioners.

Applying the theory of planned behavior with optimistic bias to understand food safety behaviors of young and middle-aged highly educated Brazilian consumers

Foodborne diseases are commonly linked to food handled in household kitchens, and comprehension of consumers' food safety behaviors is essential for addressing this issue. This study evaluated young and middle-aged highly educated Brazilian consumers' intention to perform food safety behaviors while handling food at home, applying the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) extended version with optimistic bias (OB) as a new predictor. Nine hundred and eighteen young and middle-aged highly educated consumers from Brazil responded to an online questionnaire based on the TPB with the addition of OB. The extended version explained 27% of the variance in intention (adj. r2 = 0.27, p < 0.001), while results from the original TPB model showed 25% of the variance (adj. r2 = 0.25, p < 0.001). All predictors (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and OB) positively and significantly influenced behavioral intention. The extended version of the theory is a useful instrument for understanding consumers' intention to perform food safety behaviors. Moreover, Brazilian consumers’ beliefs should be considered in marketing and governmental campaigns to increase food safety.