Unpredictable Occurrence Research Articles

A Community-based Intervention Study to Assess the Effectiveness of Awareness Imparted on Earthquake Preparedness among the Residents of South Delhi, India.

Background:New Delhi is located in seismic zone IV, and the occurrence of earthquake is fairly common. Previous disasters have shown that only sustained and timely action to reduce risk can prevent or mitigate the impact of a disaster.Objectives:The objective was to assess the knowledge and preparedness regarding earthquake among the residents of South Delhi and to impart the awareness and assess the effectiveness of the awareness imparted.Methodology:One group pretest–posttest quasi-experimental research was done among 300 respondents on earthquake preparedness.Results:As per the study, 89% of participants felt that earthquake is a concern for Delhi. It was observed that majority of the population are not prepared to handle large scale disaster. Significant association was found between pretest and posttest knowledge assessment scores of the study population.Conclusion:Disasters due to their unpredictable occurrence are difficult to tackle, but awareness and preparedness to face the calamity will help to reduce the burden of disaster.

Mental Health and Psychosocial Aspects of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak in Ethiopia: Psychological Intervention for Public Psychological Crisis

The unpredictable COVID-19 occurrence has the potential of adversely affecting the mental wellbeing on individual and public level. At present all efforts are listening carefully on the understanding of epidemiology, clinical diagnosis and prognosis, frustrate the spread of the virus, and challenges of worldwide physical condition, while crucially significant mental wellbeing has been unnoticed in this attempt. This analysis is to assess past outbreaks to know the degree of adverse effects on Psychological panic, mental wellbeing, psychological crisis intervention, and mental health management strategy. COVID-19 is leading to severe psychosocial panics and comprising mental health marking a secondary health concern in globe. Internationally implementing preventive and controlling measures, and humanizing coping and resilience are demanding factors; modified lifestyle; symptoms, transmission, prevention and treatment; marginalization and hostility and universal collision on education, health, and climate are some of the risk factors to make worse further panics.

Measuring Societal Vulnerability to Critical Infrastructure Failure Due to Extreme Weather Events

Climate change and the associated more frequent and unpredictable occurrence of extreme weather events are according to the Global Risk Report (2020), published by the World Economic Forum, among the top five risks today. Although the effects of extreme weather vary around the world and in regions, their effects on social – economic and natural systems are becoming increasingly important and require an active solution. In this context, it is important to address the individual areas of human society vulnerability, as their assessment is the basic information necessary for improving risk reduction and preparedness to extreme weather events. The paper underlines the importance of critical infrastructure as an asset or system whose disruption or destruction could have a range of serious implications for the performance of economic and social functions of the state and thus on the inhabitants in terms of their life, health, security, property and environment protection. It provides selection of past cases of extreme weather events having impacts on critical infrastructure in sector energy and transportation throughout Europe and their impacts on society. Subsequently own approach to measuring societal vulnerability due to impact of extreme weather event on critical infrastructure is presented. In conclusion recommendations supporting the proactive approach to building resilient critical infrastructure which contributes to resilient society are presented.

Experimental Models of Absence Epilepsy.

Introduction:Absence epilepsy is a brief non-convulsive seizure associated with sudden abruptness in consciousness. Because of the unpredictable occurrence of absence seizures and the ethical issues of human investigation on the pathogenesis and drug assessment, researchers tend to study animal models. This paper aims to review the advantages and disadvantages of several animal models of nonconvulsive induced seizure.Methods:The articles that were published since 1990 were assessed. The publications that used genetic animals were analyzed, too. Besides, we reviewed possible application methods of each model, clinical types of seizures induced, purposed mechanism of epileptogenesis, their validity, and relevance to the absence epileptic patients.Results:The number of studies that used genetic models of absence epilepsy from years of 2000 was noticeably more than pharmacological models. Genetic animal models have a close correlation of electroencephalogram features and epileptic behaviors to the human condition.Conclusion:The validity of genetic models of absence epilepsy would motivate the researchers to focus on genetic modes in their studies. As there are some differences in the pathophysiology of absence epilepsy between animal models and humans, the development of new animal models is necessary to understand better the epileptogenic process and, or discover novel therapies for this disorder.

Epileptic seizure prediction by the detection of seizure waveform from the pre-ictal phase of EEG signal

Epilepsy is a significant burden on our society till now, due to appropriate healthcare treatment, cost of therapy, the spontaneous and unpredictable occurrence of seizures. There is a need for a fast and integrated neural investigation process that could help epileptologist to determine and diagnose the patients as soon as possible. Electroencephalogram (EEG) has been commonly used to diagnose patients by investigating the brain's electrical activity that might be related to epilepsy. The proposed framework consists of several algorithms of feature extraction (current maxima, lower threshold, and target point selection), pattern matching (segment and domain matching) and post-processing with power, energy features. Maxima, homogeneity, power, energy and physiological field features have been used in this proposed model. Moreover, specific brain regions (lobes) inside the brain, where the seizure occurs, has been identified by the domain matching algorithm. There exist no such seizure detection system which provides warning message from the pre-ictal phase. This proposed model can be efficiently used as a real-time patient monitoring system which can send a warning message to the patient before the occurrence of seizure. This ultimately helps doctors for taking necessary actions. True positive rate (TPR) of 91.07% and 97.36% has been recorded for seizure and normal classes respectively. The accuracy and F1 score of the proposed model are 92.66% and 94.86%, respectively.

An Exceptionally Stable and Scalable Sugar–Polyolefin Frank–Kasper A15 Phase

Abstract“One‐component” soft material Frank–Kasper (FK) phases are an intriguing structural form of matter that possess periodically ordered structures arising from the self‐reconfiguration and close packing of an initial assembly of identical “deformable” spheres into two or more size‐ or shape‐distinct sets of particles. Significant challenges that must still be addressed to advance the field of soft matter FK phases further, however, include their rare and unpredictable occurrence, uncertain mechanisms of solid‐state assembly, and low thermodynamic stability. Here we show that a readily‐accessible sugar–polyolefin conjugate quantitatively produces an exceptionally stable solid‐state FK A15 phase through a rapid and irreversible thermotropic order–order transition, which contrary to other prevailing proposed mechanisms, does not require mass transfer between particles or large structural reorganization in the bulk to establish unit cell non‐equivalency. Our results provide the basis for a realistic strategy for obtaining practical and scalable quantities of a diverse range of sugar–polyolefin FK A15 phases with unique intrinsic physical properties and chemical reactivities not previously seen in such systems.

An Exceptionally Stable and Scalable Sugar-Polyolefin Frank-Kasper A15 Phase.

"One-component" soft material Frank-Kasper (FK) phases are an intriguing structural form of matter that possess periodically ordered structures arising from the self-reconfiguration and close packing of an initial assembly of identical "deformable" spheres into two or more size- or shape-distinct sets of particles. Significant challenges that must still be addressed to advance the field of soft matter FK phases further, however, include their rare and unpredictable occurrence, uncertain mechanisms of solid-state assembly, and low thermodynamic stability. Here we show that a readily-accessible sugar-polyolefin conjugate quantitatively produces an exceptionally stable solid-state FK A15 phase through a rapid and irreversible thermotropic order-order transition, which contrary to other prevailing proposed mechanisms, does not require mass transfer between particles or large structural reorganization in the bulk to establish unit cell non-equivalency. Our results provide the basis for a realistic strategy for obtaining practical and scalable quantities of a diverse range of sugar-polyolefin FK A15 phases with unique intrinsic physical properties and chemical reactivities not previously seen in such systems.

Evolusi dan Adaptasi Gerakan Kebangsaan Orang Papua dari Nasionalisme ke Etnonasionalisme

Papuan social, cultural and political resistance, especially the recent movement of Papuan students and youth (August-September 2019) which is affect as a loss of dignity of Papuan constructed by non-Papuan in some cities in Java was not an unpredictable occurrence. Edwars Lorenz’s theory of Chaos and Peter Ho’s theory of Black Elephant have been giving any clear academical framework to illustrate what will be happened. After academician such as Manuel Castells, Will Kymlica, etc. also have been giving other big picture of academical framework about what have been done, what is still moving, and what will be happen in term of connectivity of social, cultural, and political among Papuan, Central Government, and non-Papuan in Indonesia. Moreover, what is happened, Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been introducing theory of Black Swan for analyzed any shocking elements which will be occurred if an integration effort in term of peace and democratic ways are not giving a win-win solution. In this paper, how to analyzing kind of theories related to the issues of Papuan agitation has been explained in clear sequences.

Review of the Transition From Smouldering to Flaming Combustion in Wildfires

Wildfires are the occurrence of uncontrolled combustion in the natural environment (forest, grassland, or peatland). The frequency and size of these fires are expected to increase globally due to climate change, land use, and population movement, posing a significant threat to populations living at the wildland urban interface (WUI), as well as to habitats and the environment. Wildfires can be broadly divided into two types, smouldering (heterogeneous combustion) and flaming (homogeneous combustion). Both are important in wildfires and despite being characteristically different, one can lead to the other. The smouldering-to-flaming (STF) transition is considered threatening because it represents a sudden increase in spread rate, power, and hazard. STF transition is a sudden initiation of homogeneous gas-phase ignition preceded by smouldering combustion, and needs sufficient oxygen supply, thermal energy production, and pyrolysis products. Its unpredictable occurrence, temporally and spatially, poses an additional challenge in wildfire prevention and mitigation. For example, flaming fire may reignite through the STF transition of an undetected smouldering fire, or the transition from ember. The current understanding of the mechanisms leading to the transition is poor. Strong oxidation of char is a plausible mechanism due to its high exothermicity, acting both as heat source in driving gaseous fuel production and ignition source of the gaseous fuel. Broadly, the literature has identified two variables that govern the STF transition, i.e. oxygen supply and heat flux, on samples ranging from 0.1 to 1.22 m. Airflow velocity has competing effects. It increases oxygen supply to the reaction zone, thus increasing the reaction rate of oxygen-limited spread, but simultaneously increases convective cooling. Permeability of a fuels and fuel ability to remain consolidated (maintain its integrity) during burning influences the propagation of smouldering. Permeability controls the oxygen penetration into the fuel, and consolidation allows the formation of internal pores where STF can take place. Considering the high complexity of the STF transition problem, more studies are needed on different types of fuel, especially on wildland fuels. This review synthesizes the research and identifies regions for further research as well as informs on various STF transition mechanisms in the literature.

An optimal redistribution plan considering aftermath disruption in disaster management

Unpredictable occurrence of any disaster emerges immeasurable demand in an affected society. Importance of immediate response in the aftermath of disaster is a crucial part of humanitarian logistic. Resource redistribution among the affected areas makes the optimal allocation in this chaotic situation. The research work has introduced a transportation plan considering the redistribution of resources from those areas which has already acquired relief and restored the normal condition to those areas still not being recovered from the effect of calamities. This research plan is developed to minimize the total cost of the relief operation as well as optimal allocation of the resources. The optimal allocation amidst the disruption of some resource storing points in the aftermath attack of disaster is also one of the key factors of the research. This research work has a great impact for decision-maker to derive an appropriate decision-making in such an anarchic situation of critical humanitarian supply chain. Due to the complexity of disaster, the model is considered in mixed uncertain environment. A numerical study is also performed to show the smooth functioning of the mathematical model assuming the uncertainty by trapezoidal neutrosophic number. Also, trapezoidal fuzzy number is implemented for uncertain parameters of the mathematical model and hereby compared with trapezoidal neutrosophic number.

Correction to: Unpredicted occurrence of Aglae caerulea in the Pantanal wetland biome and its implications Apidae: Euglossini)

Following publication of the original article, the author requested the publishing of a new map and reference as provided in this correction.

Unpredicted occurrence of Aglae caerulea in the Pantanal wetland biome and its implications (Apidae: Euglossini)

An unpredicted occurrence of the cleptoparasitic orchid bee Aglae caerulea is announced for the Pantanal wetland biome in midwest Brazil, cataloged in a gallery forest in the Serra das Araras Ecological Station, southwestern Mato Grosso. A single female was cataloged outside the polygons where surveys were recently proposed for new orchid bee inventories in the Neotropical realm. The female found in habitat preoccupied by its hostess Eulaema nigrita is presumed representative to confirm that A. caerulea occurs in sympatry with their host in this wetland. Two recent points of occurrence in the Amazon rainforest of Mato Grosso were included here to update the Aglae distribution map. Following a meticulous literature review, several previous records from tropical moist forests in Panama and spanning from the Caribbean Sea to the Cerrado in central Bolivia and Brazil were used to complete the present record points of A. caerulea in the neotropics. The results demonstrate another distributional gap in euglossines and suggest the need for additional studies to find Aglae in southern Pantanal and farther afield.

Dissociation characteristics of methane hydrates in South China Sea sediments by depressurization

Marine methane hydrate is a considerable energy source for use in the near future. With great obstacles to spot production, researchers are focusing on the production characteristics of hydrates in various experimental systems, such as glass beads, clay, silica sand and so on. This study investigated the production behaviors of methane hydrate in the real South China Sea sediments using depressurization method. The hydrate saturations of the remolded hydrate-bearing sediments ranged from 10.10% to 23.76%. The results indicate that an 8% increase of hydrate saturation can prolong the dissociation duration under the same backpressure of 2 MPa by 120 min. In addition, the excess temperature drop caused by the depressurization may induce the unpredictable occurrence of hydrate reformation or icing; therefore, a double depressurization method that depressurizes to 2 MPa (second stage) after 20 min maintenance at 4 MPa (first stage) is employed in order to shorten the temperature drop in the first stage and increase the dissociation rate in the second stage. The results of this study are significant for the spot production of marine hydrates in order to achieve high efficient gas production.

Occupational exposure to mercury in recycling cooperatives from the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil.

The occupational exposure to mercury (Hg) was assessed in four cooperatives of recyclable materials by air sampling in nine areas (recyclable materials pile, scale, baling press machine, e-waste room, cafeteria, office, forklift, conveyor belt, and outside patio). Of the 83 samples, only 14.5% showed concentrations above the limit of quantification (LOQ) while 53% were between the LOD (limit of detection) and LOQ. Most values > LOQ occurred at Cooperative A, at the pile (0.032 μg.m-3) and scale (0.029 μg.m-3). The higher values recorded at this Cooperative might be associated with the unloading of fluorescent lamps on the day of sampling. In cooperative B, the concentration was 0.033 μg.m-3 on the conveyor belt and < 0.003 µg.m-3 in other areas. In cooperatives C and D, all samples showed values < 0.007 μg.m-3. The Hg concentrations were low in areas of e-waste handling and storage, probably due to the small amount of material and way of processing. The results were below the occupational reference values, showing that the workers are not exposed to Hg. However, the sampling design might not have been comprehensive due to the discontinuity of the e-waste processing and the unpredictable occurrence of fluorescent lamps mixed with recyclable materials .

A multi-stage stochastic programming model for relief distribution considering the state of road network

As an important aspect in disaster operations management, relief distribution has been challenged by lots of factors, such as unpredictable occurrence time, intensity and location of secondary disasters (e.g. aftershocks and landslides, which usually occur after an earthquake), and availability of vehicles. A multi-stage stochastic programming model is developed for disaster relief distribution with consideration of multiple types of vehicles, fluctuation of rental, and the state of road network. The state of road network is characterized using uncertain and dynamic road capacity. The scenario tree is employed to represent the uncertain and dynamic road capacity, and demonstrate the decision process of relief distribution. A progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is proposed for solving the proposed model in large-scale size. Based on a real-world case of Yaan earthquake in China, numerical experiments are presented to study the applicability of the proposed model and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed PHA. Useful managerial insights are provided by conducting numerical analysis.

Minimal overlap between areas of high conservation priority for endangered Galapagos pinnipeds and the conservation zone of the Galapagos Marine Reserve

Abstract Galapagos sea lions (Zalophus wollebaeki) and fur seals (Arctocephalus galapagoensis) are endangered pinnipeds that live in a highly variable marine environment, influenced by seasonal changes in productivity and by the unpredictable occurrence of El Niño. The Galapagos marine habitat is protected through the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR), which has recently undergone a redefinition of its zonation. However, the effectiveness of the GMR in protecting the habitat of Galapagos pinnipeds has never been investigated, and it is unclear how well their habitat use aligns with the newly proposed conservation zone. A spatial prioritization analysis framework was applied based on the complementary use of density estimation (kernel utilization distributions, KUDs) and habitat modelling (resource selection functions, RSFs). Using tracking data collected over two years and under three environmental scenarios (cold season, warm season, and El Niño) in the western archipelago, hot spots of pinniped habitat usage were identified (through KUDs), and predictions about the location of patches of good habitat were generated (through RSFs). The output of KUDs and RSFs was used for a spatial prioritization analysis to delineate areas of high conservation priority. The overlap between these areas and the GMR zonation was then calculated. Both species were found to use largely distinct habitat types: sea lions used the waters over the continental shelf, whereas fur seals used the offshore deep waters and showed a more heterogeneous space usage over time. The spatial prioritization analysis identified three key areas of high conservation priority for both species in the Western Galapagos. These areas were all within the boundaries of the GMR but the overlap with the conservation zone was only 8%. Hence, under the current proposition, the largest proportion of key pinniped foraging habitat in the western archipelago will not be protected from licensed activities in the sustainable use zone, particularly fishing and boat traffic.

Local people’s perception and awareness of climate change: a case study from community forests in Lamjung District, Western Nepal

Climate change has negatively impacted the underdeveloped and developing countries including Nepal due to low adaptive capacity and higher dependency in agriculture. Forests are important component of the lives and livelihoods of the community in Nepal, which can offer an important source of climate-resilient livelihood. It is crucial to know the fact that climate change was in the past, which will continue to change in the future. It is essential to understand how communities perceive and adapt to climate change. A study was carried out in Kirepani, Jagreni and Kalika Community Forest User Groups (CFUGs) in Lamjung District with an objective of assessing their perceptions on impacts of climate change. The survey was carried out in 62 households along with participatory appraisal to understand the perception of local people on climate change and its impacts. Focus group discussion was held in each CFUG. Climatic data of 29 years (1987–2015) acquired from Khudi, Kuncha and Gharedgunga metereological stations and analysed to supplement the results. Data were analysed using MS-Excel as major computer software and presented as table, trend lines and graphs. The study showed that the locals correctly perceived change in temperature, unpredictable occurrence of rainfall and increased incidence of change in crops phenology, an increase in drought. Based on the perceptions of the community forest users, climate change has affected the biodiversity and societal system differentially. Drought has higher impact to the people affecting their lives and livelihoods. They perceived that the increase in drought, floods, landslide have affected their lives and livelihoods. The results revealed that minimum temperature was increased at the rate of 0.01º C per year whereas the maximum temperature was increased by 0.056° C per year. From the rainfall data of Khudi meteorological station, it was found that annual rainfall was highly decreased at the rate of 25.8 mm per year, which alarms for more disaster such as drought and fire in the area. Our findings suggest that for the innovative climate change adaptation planning and policy it is crucial to incorporate and acknowledge the role of community forest in climate change adaptation.

Diverse water quality responses to extreme climate events: an introduction

We synthesize and summarize main findings from a special issue examining the origins, evolution, and resilience of diverse water quality responses to extreme climate events resulting from a Chapman Conference of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). Origins refer to sequences of interactive disturbances and antecedent conditions that influence diversification of water quality responses to extreme events. Evolution refers to the amplification, intensification, and persistence of water quality signals across space and time in watersheds. Resilience refers to strategies for managing and minimizing extreme water quality impacts and ecosystem recovery. The contributions of this special issue, taken together, highlight the following: (1) there is diversification in the origins of water quality responses to extreme climate events based on the intensity, duration, and magnitude of the event mediated by previous historical conditions; (2) interactions between climate variability and watershed disturbances (e.g., channelization of river networks, land use change, and deforestation) amplify water quality ‘pulses,’ which can manifest as large changes in chemical concentrations and fluxes over relatively short time periods. In the context of the evolution of water quality responses, results highlight: (3) there are high intensity and long-term climate events, which can generate unique sequences in water quality, which have differential impacts on persistence of water quality problems and ecosystem recovery rates; and (4) ‘chemical cocktails’ or novel mixtures of elements and compounds are transported and transformed during extreme climate events. The main findings regarding resilience to extreme climate events are that: (5) river restoration strategies for reducing pollution from extreme events can be improved by preserving and restoring floodplains, wetlands, and oxbow ponds, which enhance hydrologic and biogeochemical retention, and lengthen the distribution of hydrologic residence times; and (6) the biogeochemical capacity for stream and river ecosystems to retain and transform pollution from landscapes can become “saturated” during floods unless watershed pollution sources are reduced. Finally, the unpredictable occurrence of extreme climate events argues for wider deployment of high-frequency, in situ sensors for monitoring, managing, and modeling diverse water quality responses. These sensors can be used to develop robust proxies for chemical cocktails, detect water quality violations following extreme climate events, and effectively trace the trajectory of water quality recovery in response to managing ecosystem resilience.

Stratification of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients Into Three Groups of Disease Activity Progression According to Longitudinal Gene Expression.

The highly heterogeneous clinical presentation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is characterized by the unpredictable occurrence of disease flares and organ damage. Attempts to stratify lupus patients have been limited to classification based on clinical information, leading to unsuccessful clinical trials and controversial research results. This study was undertaken to develop and validate a robust method to stratify patients with lupus according tolongitudinal disease activity and whole-genome gene expression data in order to establish subgroups of patients who share disease progression mechanisms. We used a cluster-based approach to stratify SLE patients based on the correlation between disease activity scores and longitudinal gene expression information. Clustering robustness was evaluated by the bootstrap method, and the clusters were characterized in terms of clinical and functional features. We observed a clear partition into 3 different disease clusters in 2 independent sets of patients, one pediatric and one adult, which was not influenced by treatment, race, or other source of bias. Two of the clusters differentiated into a group showing a correlation between the percentage of neutrophils and disease activity progression and a group showing a correlation between the percentage of lymphocytes and disease activity progression. The third cluster, in which the percentage of neutrophils correlated to a lesser degree with disease activity, was functionally more heterogeneous. Patients in the neutrophil-driven clusters had an increased risk of developing proliferative nephritis. Our findings indicate that SLE patients can be stratified into 3 subgroups of patients who show different mechanisms of disease progression and are clinically differentiated. Our results have important implications for treatment options, the design of clinical trials, our understanding of the etiology of the disease, and the prediction of severe glomerulonephritis.

Modulation of sustained fear by transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) of the right inferior frontal cortex (rIFC)

Downregulation of emotional responses to threat is strongly associated with frontal cortex functions. Additionally pathological anxiety has been proposed to be associated with the altered frontal control. Understanding the frontal regulation of both initial and sustained fear responses seems to be crucial for further research on the treatment of anxiety disorders. Therefore, this study aims to examine the effects of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over the right inferior frontal cortex (rIFC) on the subjects’ psychophysiological responses as measured by skin conductance reaction (SCR) during a sustained threat paradigm. 80 participants were randomly assigned to an anodal and sham stimulation group in a double-blinded manner. Indicated by visual cues, participants anticipated the temporally unpredictable occurrence of aversive or neutral auditory stimuli. We found a significant interaction effect of condition x tDCS for SCR during the sustained threat. Post-hoc tests revealed a significant reduction in SCR during sustained fear in verum stimulated group. The results confirm that tDCS of the rIFC attenuates sustained fear. This supports the suggested role of the rIFC in psychophysiological emotional regulation and the potential use of tDCS to enhance these effects.