United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Research Articles

Approaches to Digital Trade and Data Flow Regulation Across Jurisdictions: Implications for the Future ASEAN-EU Agreement

In the last two decades the venue of free trade agreements has turned into an important platform for digital trade rule-making. Yet, the approaches of individual states differ profoundly and the emerging data governance regime is deeply fragmented.The article seeks tomap these developments by looking at selected preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their design. The enquiry focuses on the United States (US) and European Union (EU) approaches and discusses the differing stances with regard to data flows regulation in particular, while highlighting innovative solutions found in recent trade deals, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). The article then provides an overview of ASEAN’s initiatives with respect to electronic commerce. Against this backdrop, the article evaluates the prospects of digital trade related rules in the future ASEAN-EU agreement. CPTPP, electronic commerce, EU FTAs, data flows, digital trade, RCEP, USMCA

Problems and prospects of Ukraines economic cooperation with the countries of the north american free trade zone

The paper considers the theoretical foundations of international economic integration. There were certain features of process of economic integration in North America on the way of creation of free trade zone between the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The structural analysis of NAFTA and certain further prospects of development of relations of the North American countries was also conducted with Ukraine in the conditions of integration in a world economy. The methods of scientific research that were used to achieve the goal and to solve the tasks of the article are the following: systematic structural analysis of economic processes, the method of quantitative and qualitative comparisons, regression analysis The scientific novelty of the obtained results is the study of the prospects of trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and North America. As a result of the study, it was determined that global challenges hinder the development of trade and economic cooperation between countries. For Ukraine, which has been influenced by geopolitical challenges, the development of partnership with the countries of North America, recognized global economy leaders, is essential in terms of realizing national interests and defending state sovereignty. To determine the reasons for the instability of export growth to North America, the article conducted a correlation-regression analysis and determined the degree of dependence of exports on changes in gross domestic product. The results of the regression analysis confirmed the hypothesis of a significant dependence of Ukraine's GDP and domestic exports to NAFTA countries. The regression equation is determined, according to which to forecast the prospects of trade and economic cooperation between NAFTA and Ukraine, a forecast of exports from Ukraine to North America using the method of time series analysis. It was determined that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is not fundamentally different from the previous one, but it can create new opportunities, for example, for workers and farmers in the United States, and new difficulties for Canada and Mexico. This agreement tightens labor standards and protection of intellectual property rights, especially in Mexico, thus, probably decreasing the attractiveness of Mexican economy to foreign investors, that is likely to reduce the U.S. investment in Mexico. Thus, Canada and Mexico are expected to receive less benefit from the USMCA for their economies than the United States.

Trade friction and price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets

This paper examines the impact of trade friction on price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets. Using the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model, we investigate how the foreign exchange spot and forward markets respond to trade friction. We consider two major trade friction events: the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement and the recent trade friction between Canada and China. Both events show that the forward market plays a dominant role in price discovery, and the influence of the forward market increases as trade tension increases. By comparing the fractional and non-fractional models, we find that the fractional model fits the data better and has superior forecasting performance to the cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model.

5. United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) (formerly the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA))

5. United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) (formerly the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA))

Addressing the Role of Climate Change in Agriculture and Mexico-US Immigration

Among the greatest threats of climate change is the significant impact on mass displacement, particularly as it relates to Mexico-US immigration. Low crop yields from worsening climate conditions have been linked to increased migration of Mexican farmers. With a projected 4.2 million additional migrants in the foreseeable future, it poses a contemporary environmental, social, and political dilemma. This policy brief analyzes several provision proposals to be adopted into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), as evaluated under economic cost, equity, environmental impact, and feasibility criteria. My research concludes that the most effective and direct provision proposal is the implementation of adaptive farming to protect small-scale farmers against the adverse effects of climate change. The policy benefits both American and Mexican governments by mitigating financial losses from low crop yield, limiting Mexico-US immigration, and building climate resilience for farmers. This serves as a model for addressing the global increase of climate refugees and can help predict climate change-driven migration patterns in rural areas around the world.

Mexico’s Trade Relationship with China in the Context of the United States–China Trade war

The Mexico–China economic relationship is highly asymmetric, although the amount of total trade between the two countries has grown rapidly in the last ten years. Chinese exports to Mexico have grown exponentially and have diversified into different economic sectors. In contrast, Mexican exports to China have also grown but at a much slower pace and the pattern shows more concentration in fewer products. Paradoxically, in the context of the United States–China trade war, the Mexican economy has benefitted from the increase in tariffs that the United States has imposed on Chinese products. In 2019, for the first time, Mexico displaced China as a main trade partner of the United States. In this context, this article analyses the current economic relationship of Mexico with China and the United States in a triangular scheme, the impact of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on the China–Mexico relationship, and Mexico's trade relationship with both economies in the context of the trade war.

UK‐US Trade Relations and ‘Global Britain’

AbstractA UK‐US free trade agreement has consistently been presented as the main prize from the UK's much touted post‐Brexit trade policy independence. The UK Prime Minister's admission that this was not going to be realised any time soon may have surprised media pundits, but it merely confirmed what had become increasingly apparent since the referendum: that a free trade agreement with the US was a long shot. Taken together with the short‐lived suggestion of the UK joining the United States‐Mexico‐Canada Agreement (USMCA), we argue that it is the desire to perform ‘independence’ from the European Union rather than policy content which is driving the UK's trade strategy.

Intellectual property and access to medicines: mapping public attitudes toward pharmaceuticals during the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiation process

BackgroundTransparency and accountability are essential components at all stages of the trade negotiation process. This study evaluates the extent to which these principles were upheld in the United States’ public consultation process during the negotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with respect to public comments about the pharmaceutical sector and access to medicines.ResultsThe public consultation process occurred before the start of official negotiations and was overseen by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). It included both written comments and oral testimony about US trade negotiation objectives. Of the written comments that specifically discussed issues relating to pharmaceuticals, the majority were submitted by private individuals, members of the pharmaceutical industry, and civil society organizations. Nearly all comments submitted by non-industry groups indicated that access to medicines was a priority issue in the renegotiated agreement, with specific reference to price affordability. By contrast, more than 50% of submissions received from members or affiliates of the pharmaceutical industry advocated for strengthened pharmaceutical intellectual property rights, greater regulatory data protections, or both.This study reveals mixed outcomes with respect to the level of transparency achieved in the US trade negotiation process. Though input from the public at-large was actively solicited, the extent to which these comments were considered in the content of the final agreement is unclear. A preliminary comparison of the analyzed comments with the USTR’s final negotiating objectives and the final text of the USMCA shows that several provisions that were advanced exclusively by the pharmaceutical industry and ultimately adopted in the final agreement were opposed by the majority of non-industry stakeholders.ConclusionsNegotiators could increase public transparency when choosing to advance one competing trade objective over another by actively providing the public with clear rationales for their negotiation positions, as well as details on how public comments are taken into account to form these rationales. Without greater clarity on these aspects, the public consultation process risks appearing to serve as a cursory government mechanism, lacking in accountability and undermining public trust in both the trade negotiation process and its outcomes.

Digital trade and the remaking of the North American regional economy

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was a cornerstone of the 1990s liberal hegemony established with the rise of multilateral trade agreements. On July 1 st 2020, NAFTA was replaced by a new trade deal: USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). This article argues that through the inclusion of digital trade provisions, USMCA signifies a vision of a regional economic space that differs substantively from NAFTA’s. To make this case, the article examines the digital trade provisions in USMCA, contrasts them with the vision of trade advanced by NAFTA, and evaluates how they create conditions that can transform the North American space-economy.

Mexican sub-federal governments and trade politics: Variation on supportive conditions and institutional resources

ABSTRACT Mexico has one of the largest networks of trade and investment agreements in the world. However, the legal architecture in Mexico does not allow sub-federal governments (SGFs) to participate in free trade negotiations. While this explains the rather weak role of Mexican sub-federal units in trade politics, this case study shows that the states are not absent from trade. They utilize semi-formal and informal resources which account for variation in trade engagement. Permissive secondary legislation, cooperation agreements and projects, and intergovernmental bargaining are all institutional resources used by Mexican SFGs to engage in trade politics. These resources function under supportive conditions that facilitate trade, such as interest identification, institutional capacities, and learning processes. A variation of such conditions sets the basis for the use of certain resources. This article presents empirical evidence of SFGs differentiated engagement in the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA) and the revamped Mexico-European Union trade agreement (MEX-EU).

Dual Nationality of a Private Investor in Investment Treaty Arbitration: A Potential Barrier to the Exercise of Jurisdiction Ratione Personae?

Abstract One of the fundamental objectives of international investment agreements (IIAs) is to protect the rights and interests of foreign investors in the territory of a contracting State. Why, then, have tribunals often exercised jurisdiction ratione personae over the claims of dual nationals against their own State? The answer lies in the silence of IIAs on the matter of dual nationals. Such agreements have failed expressly to mention dual nationals in their definitions of ‘investor’ or ‘national’, which has created lacunae that are open to interpretation. Tribunals have often fallen back on international law to fill these gaps and accurately to determine the nationality of an investor’s claims. They have taken into consideration the text of the IIAs, the text of institutional rules and the general principles of international law. The principle of ‘dominant and effective nationality’, as propounded in the Nottebohm case, has made frequent appearances in such interpretation processes. However, the application of this principle has been inconsistent over time, with different tribunals taking different stances. In this article, the author traces this varied approaches of tribunals. In doing so, he analyses the text of and the awards delivered in disputes arising out of the Algiers Declaration, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States (ICSID Convention), the Dominican Republic–Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA), the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Arbitration Rules and various bilateral investment treaties (BITs). Based on this analysis, the author proposes several changes that States should consider in the future negotiation of BITs to restrict a claim by a dual national against its State of nationality.

Transparency and accountability in the negotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement: the case of pharmaceuticals

BackgroundTransparency and accountability are essential components at all stages of the trade negotiation process. This study reports on the findings of an evaluation of the United States' public consultation process during the re-negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)/United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) with respect to medicines and the pharmaceutical sector. MethodsA desk review was conducted to map the US negotiation rounds of the USMCA. Then, opportunities for the public to receive information and provide feedback about the proposed agreement provisions were identified. Finally, the written comments submitted by stakeholders during this public consultation process to the Federal Register (Regulations.gov) were queried and analysed using qualitative data analysis software NVivo for language related to pharmaceuticals and medicine. FindingsThe public consultation process occurred before the start of official negotiations. It was overseen by the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) and included both written comments and oral testimony about US negotiation objectives. There were no further official opportunities for the public to engage with the negotiation process. Of the 1458 comments publicly available through the Federal Register, 75 specifically discussed issues related to pharmaceuticals for human use. More than 50% of submissions received from members or affiliates of the pharmaceutical industry advocated for strengthened pharmaceutical intellectual property rights, greater regulatory data protection, or both. Nearly all submissions from non-industry groups indicated that access to, or the affordability of, medicines was a priority issue area in the renegotiated agreement. Most submissions that directly discussed transparency and accountability were authored by industry groups and emphasised the importance of predictability and transparency in the areas of pharmaceutical intellectual property, regulatory affairs, pricing, and reimbursement to facilitate greater innovation. InterpretationUSMCA increased regulatory data protection for innovator drugs, increased the period of regulatory exclusivity for biologics, and granted patent term restoration provisions for regulatory delays, undermining public access to medicines. Although industry comments only constitute 26% of the comments submitted during the US public consultation period related to pharmaceuticals, they reflect the dominant position adopted in the USMCA. FundingConnaught Fund Global Health Challenge Award.

Does the real exchange rate play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada? An asymmetric analysis

The main goal of the former NAFTA and current United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) was to remove barriers to trade and increase trade in both directions. Clearly, the goal will be achieved more effectively if the real exchange rate was fixed among the three members. But they are not. They change not only due to changes in the nominal exchange rates but also due to changes in prices. We investigate whether the real peso-Canadian dollar play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada. We consider the trade balance of 16 industries that trade between the two countries and find that when we estimated a traditional linear model, indeed, we did not find much of a long-run impact on the trade balances. However, when we estimated a nonlinear model, we discovered long-run effects in 11 industries. While in two industries we found evidence of symmetric J-curve, in nine industries the concept of asymmetric inverse J-curve received support, included one of the largest industries that engage in 1/3rd of the trade.

The USMCA and Investment: A New North American Approach?

The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) includes a chapter devoted to investment in North America as it was the case for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). While the new agreement marks a continuation with substantive protection afforded to foreign investors and their investment by the NAFTA, it does depart from its predecessor regarding Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). It introduces significant differentiations between the United States, Mexico and Canada regarding ISDS, including its abandonment regarding Canada. The NAFTA contributed to the creation of a uniform North American approach to investment law and policy. The USMCA begs the question whether it creates a new North American approach, and this calls for some nuances. There is still a common approach to substantive protection within and outside North America. However, there is no more common approach to ISDS within North America. Latest developments in treaty practice show that the USMCA is not isolated in abandoning ISDS. Thus, the new piecemeal North American approach to ISDS could become the global approach. Nevertheless, the abolition of ISDS does not mean the disappearance of investment disputes. Governments will not be able to avoid pressure to intervene in the problems of private investors with foreign countries, the very purpose for which ISDS was – yet imperfectly – created.

Towards a New Treaty on Digital Trade

Digital trade is one of the very few areas of trade law, where one can observe a willingness shared by the international community to move forward and actively engage in new rule-making. The article contextualizes and explores this development by looking at the relevant e-commerce provisions in preferential agreements, in particularly by highlighting the legal innovation in the most advanced templates of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), as well as in dedicated digital trade agreements, such as the ones between the United States and Japan and between Chile, New Zealand and Singapore. The article then looks at the WTO negotiations and tries to identify points of convergence and divergence reflected in the latest negotiation proposals tabled by WTO members. It is the article’s objective to test these proposals, as to their potential to permit the adoption of a new treaty on digital trade and to their ability to adequately address the practical reality of the data-driven economy. digital trade, electronic commerce, World Trade Organization, preferential trade agreements, data and data flows, CPTPP, USMCA, DEPA

The USMCA and Mexico’s Prospects under the New North American Trade Regime

After 26 years of trading under the North American Free Trade agreement (NAFTA), Mexico and its North American partners enter a new phase with the entry into force of United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on 1 July 2020. This note quantifies the potential impact of the agreement on Mexico and assesses its implications for Mexico’s economic development in the context of the evolving knowledge-based and data-driven economy, the restructuring of global supply chains in response to the risks that were highlighted by the pandemic-driven economic crisis, and the changes to global trade and investment patterns driven by the trade and technology friction between the United States and China. The USMCA provides a major overhaul of the NAFTA based largely on the text of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It introduces some minor improvements to market access but its main effect for the industrial sectors of the economy is to intensify trade and investment diversion through more restrictive rules of origin, including onerous new requirements for labour value content in the automotive sector that impose significant adjustments on Mexico’s auto sector producers. The agreement builds on the institutional framework of the NAFTA, retaining the binational panel review mechanism for trade remedies – now Chapter 30 – intact, preserving the investor-state-dispute-settlement (ISDS) mechanism for Mexico-US investments only, improving state-to-state dispute settlement mechanism by addressing procedural weaknesses in the NAFTA version that had undermined its use, and introducing a new rapid-response mechanism for challenges to Mexico’s compliance with the labour market measures newly incorporated in the USMCA. The agreement, however, leaves open the use of US Section 232 “national security” tariffs and thus does not address the main new source of uncertainty concerning assured access to the US market for its North American partners. The analysis concludes that the net impact on Mexico is to reduce real gross domestic product (GDP) by about -0.8% compared to the NAFTA, once the economic adjustments are fully in place. Since Mexico had already signed onto disciplines on data localization and cross-border data flows under the CPTPP, the digital economy measures have little direct impact; however, how Mexico engages in the digital economy, both to tap the economic potential and to develop regulatory safeguards will be an important determinant of how well it fares under the new USMCA trade regime.

USMCA under Trump’s and Biden’s Administrations: Continuity and Divergence in Attitudes

The task of NAFTA re-negotiating was one of Donald Trump’s signature campaign promises, whereas the resulting United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), in force since July 1, 2020, is his key legacy in the international trade policy.

North American Energy at the Crossroads

The United States is the heart of North American energy markets, has recently emerged from history’s biggest oil boom, and is becoming the crossroads for an increasingly two-way trade in oil and gas with its two neighboring countries. The U.S. and Mexico, in particular, have much to gain from expanded energy trade. For example, the U.S. has become a global center of natural gas and light crude oil production that can meet the growing demand for power for Mexican consumers and fuel for Mexican refineries. And Mexico’s wind power resources in Tamaulipas would be most valuable if that power could be exported to centers of urban and industrial demand in Texas. Yet there is an increasing danger that this potential will be squandered. Growing movements against eminent domain, infra-structure permits, and energy exports in the United States and moves to re-nationalize the energy sector in Mexico are making energy companies increasingly wary of investing in the future of U.S.-Mexico energy trade. Ironically, politicians on both sides of the border accuse each other of being the source of uncertainty for the future of the North American energy industry. This Article shows how energy law changes in the U.S. and Mexico present under-studied dangers to cross-border energy trade and will set an agenda for legal reform to enable mutually beneficial fuel and power trade. And it will propose the basis for an energy agreement that could be adopted either by the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) partners or by direct negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico to secure the benefits of increased energy trade and increase cooperation in energy and climate policy.

The Evolution of Digital Trade from the North American Trade Agreement to the United States Mexico Canada Agreement

The Evolution of Digital Trade from the North American Trade Agreement to the United States Mexico Canada Agreement

Digital Economy Barriers to Trade Regulation Status, Challenges, and China's Response

At present, the WTO's multilateral trading system faces the acute challenge of adapting to the digital and commercial economies' rapid evolution. The recent regional trade agreements embody the corresponding achievements of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), and the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) in facilitating the free flow of data and regulating digital barriers to trade. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has also developed several new norms for promoting free data flow and protecting personal data privacy. The new regional trade agreements fulfil the digital trade threshold, prohibit delocalization by the data center and establish organized frameworks for cross-border data flow and personal privacy protection. In the negotiations on trade services agreements, China should focus on implementing a new management structure, speeding up domestic legislation and legislative reforms, and establishing a legal framework that promotes the free flow of data, fair competition, and personal information among corporations.