Problems and prospects of Ukraines economic cooperation with the countries of the north american free trade zone

Abstract

The paper considers the theoretical foundations of international economic integration. There were certain features of process of economic integration in North America on the way of creation of free trade zone between the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The structural analysis of NAFTA and certain further prospects of development of relations of the North American countries was also conducted with Ukraine in the conditions of integration in a world economy. The methods of scientific research that were used to achieve the goal and to solve the tasks of the article are the following: systematic structural analysis of economic processes, the method of quantitative and qualitative comparisons, regression analysis The scientific novelty of the obtained results is the study of the prospects of trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and North America. As a result of the study, it was determined that global challenges hinder the development of trade and economic cooperation between countries. For Ukraine, which has been influenced by geopolitical challenges, the development of partnership with the countries of North America, recognized global economy leaders, is essential in terms of realizing national interests and defending state sovereignty. To determine the reasons for the instability of export growth to North America, the article conducted a correlation-regression analysis and determined the degree of dependence of exports on changes in gross domestic product. The results of the regression analysis confirmed the hypothesis of a significant dependence of Ukraine's GDP and domestic exports to NAFTA countries. The regression equation is determined, according to which to forecast the prospects of trade and economic cooperation between NAFTA and Ukraine, a forecast of exports from Ukraine to North America using the method of time series analysis. It was determined that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is not fundamentally different from the previous one, but it can create new opportunities, for example, for workers and farmers in the United States, and new difficulties for Canada and Mexico. This agreement tightens labor standards and protection of intellectual property rights, especially in Mexico, thus, probably decreasing the attractiveness of Mexican economy to foreign investors, that is likely to reduce the U.S. investment in Mexico. Thus, Canada and Mexico are expected to receive less benefit from the USMCA for their economies than the United States.