United Nations Development Programme Research Articles

Fiscal policy and inclusive growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1985-2022. Secondary data on the human development index, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP, total government expenditure, inequality, and government expenditure on infrastructure and education were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test showed that in the long run, government expenditure on infrastructure, and education, has a positive and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Also, total government expenditure and the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP have a negative and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Interestingly, inequality has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. In the short run, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP and government expenditure on infrastructure has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. At the same time, government expenditure on education, total government expenditure, and inequality has a positive and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. These results highlight the vital role that responsible fiscal policy management plays in promoting sustainable development and inclusive growth. The study recommended a need to augment tax revenue, enhance capital investment, and address income inequality to bolster inclusive growth efforts in the country further.

Leadership Failure as a Drawback to Africa’s Socio-Economic Development: Analysis of the Challenges and the way forward

Leadership crises in Africa has precipitated series of military coups, insecurity and other myriad of challenges various states in the continent have been plagued with since their independence from colonial subjugation. And these, as many scholars contended, account for the unenviable position of the continent in developmental indexes—like the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development index (HDI) which ranked world countries based on key developmental dimensions and indicators. With focus on leadership landscape, this paper examined the continent’s developmental challenges, the efforts made to curb them at national and continental levels, and the way forward. Secondary data sourced from journal articles and published reports formed the bedrock of the analysis which, first, traced the root of the challenges to the balkanisation of the African continent during colonial rule, and second, showed the failure of the persistent experimentation of unrefined western models of democracy in post-independence Africa. The paper therefore posited that without derogating from 21st century universal leadership values, home-grown democracy that will inculcate African values and ensure inclusion of all ethnoreligious groups holds the key to ending the continent’s leadership crises, which would in turn set it on track for sustainable development.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Chikungunya Incidence in Brazil and the Impact of Social Vulnerability: A Population-Based and Ecological Study.

To assess the temporal and spatial dynamics of chikungunya incidence and its association with social vulnerability indicators in Brazil, an ecological and population-based study was conducted herein, with confirmed cases of chikungunya and based on clinical and clinical-epidemiological criteria from 2017 to 2023. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and social vulnerability indicators were extracted from the official platform of the United Nations Development Program and the Social Vulnerability Atlas. Temporal, spatial, and global spatial regression models were employed. The temporal trend showed that in 2017, the incidence increased by 1.9%, and this trend decreased from 2020 to 2021 (-0.93%). The spatial distribution showed heterogeneity and positive spatial autocorrelation (I: 0.71; p < 0.001) in chikungunya cases in Brazil. Also, the high-risk areas for the disease were concentrated in the northeast and north regions. The social vulnerability indicators associated with the outcome were those related to income, education, and housing conditions. Our analyses demonstrate that chikungunya continues to be a serious health concern in Brazil, but specially in the northeast and north regions. Lastly, mapping risk areas can provide evidence for the development of public health strategies and disease control in endemic regions.

A study on wood waste potential in Turkey

The aim of this article is to examine and assess Turkey's wood waste potential through an experimental investigation approach to serve Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of United Nations Development Programme. While integrating entrepreneurial and architectural perspectives from two authors, the survey provides insights into the waste wood-producing sector, highlighting the gaps within the data in the existing literature. To address these gaps, after reviewing available sources in the wood-waste producing sector, the authors conducted interviews with directly involved volunteers to gather first-hand information and suggestions. Viability studies were subsequently conducted for theoretical products, comparing their potential to create value-add by utilizing wood waste capacity.The proposal for handmade, unique, products from solid wood waste demonstrated a higher added value attributed to elevated selling price expectations, albeit with limited benefits in recycling substantial amounts of wood waste. Conversely, the proposal focusing on wood-based pressboards exhibited a lower added value, influenced by competitive pressure from industrially produced boards, but demonstrated a significant capacity for CO2 sequestration. The findings of the study underscore a considerable future potential for wasted wood and its utilization in Turkey, while also emphasizing the pressing need for additional research on wood waste recycling to enhance ecological sustainability.

Anticipatory Development Foresight: An approach for international and multilateral organizations

AbstractMotivationIn the three years before 2023, we have seen multiple parallel crises—from climate emergencies to economic instability, dramatic increases in costs of living, and political insecurities. Looming larger than the risks is the resultant uncertainty. Development agents, including governments, are historically unprepared for managing converging crisis. When risks are analysed and governed in narrow ways, the historically oppressed and excluded continue to carry the brunt of impact.PurposeThis article reflects on the question: How can institutions, including governments, become more anticipatory against this backdrop, to ensure that their policy and investment choices do not leave anyone behind due to lack of preparedness?Approach and methodsIt draws insights from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific's efforts since 2020 to apply more future‐fit planning and programming, recognizing that foresight is not an end in itself, but a mechanism for shaping more anticipatory institutions. It is based on qualitative learning synthesized from over three years of work to establish new systems, capabilities and processes for UNDP and its partners to engage in anticipatory risk and planning.FindingsPractices rooted in strategic foresight and anticipation can support institutions to incorporate long‐term thinking in planning and analysis, but their translation into development decisions and investments requires shifts in perspectives and risk appetite. Historically, strategic foresight has not been mainstreamed within international organizations and governments owing to: failing to embed anticipation into core systems and processes; giving more attention to tools and building skills than to the demand for alternative decision‐making models and to risk tolerance; relying overly on external support and static models; insufficiently attending to organizational culture and relational drivers of thinking and action.Policy implicationsWe suggest four interconnected levers to help sustain impact and equity when bringing anticipatory approaches into policy processes: ensure design elasticity to encourage local, context‐specific models of anticipatory decision‐making; build anticipatory systems as a base to understand future risks, harms, and correlating impacts; interrogate what counts as legitimate and relevant evidence for policy decisions; cultivate imagination as an act of inquiry.

Harnessing Dialogue as a Social Technology for Systems Change in Development Institutions

Across global development discourse and practice can be seen a growing a recognition that deep transformation of social, economic and ecological systems cannot be achieved through new policies, data or technology alone. The capabilities needed for 21st century leadership and governance relate to the ability to create new conditions, relationships and pathways for social and moral imagination to flourish. Drawing from an in-depth case study of several interlinked initiatives of the United Nations Development Programme to build such capabilities among development practitioners, this conceptual paper elaborates the continued need for, and pathways and barriers to institutionalizing, more dialogic- and process-based approaches to systems transformation in mainstream development processes. It posits that a reconceptualization of dialogue within multilateral and government-led systems transformation frameworks in particular can help valorize the seeds of development impact that reside in the sites where culture, relationships and shared consciousness are built. Further learning is needed, however, to understand and address barriers that lie in normative perceptions, organizational culture, and accountability frameworks of these institutions, which impede the rhetorical interest in inclusive and transformative dialogue from translating to more process- and relationship-centric ways of working. As a contribution to this learning, the paper considers how conceptual frames that give weight and visibility to the role of social containers in systems change processes, with dialogue as a core technology for container-building, canhelp advance more transformative development paradigms and praxis that tend to the reciprocal relationships between inner change and societal change.

The influence mechanism of multi-government environmental regulation synergy on corporate environmental responsibility

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) calls for enhanced global efforts to achieve the 17 sustainable development goals by 2030, highlighting the crucial role of corporate environmental responsibility (CER) in advancing global sustainability. As a significant participant, China is leveraging its government-led environmental regulation (ER) system, which has a multi-level and multi-sectoral structure, to effectively combat climate change. However, the effect of this ER system, especially collaborative efforts among multiple government subjects, on CER remains unknown. Thus, this paper is the first attempt to investigate the effect and underlying mechanisms of multi-government ER synergy on CER from the perspective of government subject synergy. Using a dataset of Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2021, this study finds the following. First, multi-government ER synergy boosts CER. Direct ER synergy, stemming from joint policy-making across departments, encourages CER in end-of-pipe governance. Indirect ER synergy, arising from administrative hierarchy constraints among multi-level governments, fosters CER in front-end governance. Second, financing constraints and executives’ attention to CER are two key channels through which multi-government ER synergy influences CER. Third, firms with political connections, those in heavily polluting industries, or those located in central and western regions adopt more proactive CER strategies under multi-government ER synergy. This paper expands research on government collaborative governance from the regional macro-perspective to the micro-firm level, providing valuable insights for countries worldwide, particularly emerging economies that share similar characteristics with China, to contain rapidly growing environmental challenges and advance global sustainability.

Global epidemiological comparison of Streptococcus pyogenes emm-types associated with pharyngitis and pharyngeal carriage

ObjectivesTo test the prevailing dogma that Streptococcus pyogenes emm-types that cause pharyngitis are the same as those associated with the carriage, using a global dataset. MethodsDrawing on our systematic review of the global distribution of S. pyogenes emm-types and emm-clusters from 1990 to 2023, we compared the distribution and diversity of strains associated with pharyngitis and pharyngeal carriage, in the context of local United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index (HDI) values. ResultsWe included 20 222 isolates from 71 studies done in 34 countries, with the vast majority of carriage strain data from studies in ‘Low HDI’ settings (550/1293; 43%). There was higher emm-type diversity for carriage than pharyngitis strains (Simpson Reciprocal Index of diversity 28.9 vs. 11.4). Compared with pharyngitis strains, carriage emm-types were disproportionately from emm-clusters E and D, usually described as ‘generalist’ or ‘skin’ strains. DiscussionA limited number of studies have compared S. pyogenes strains from cases of pharyngitis compared with carriage. Our understanding of strains associated with carriage is the poorest for high-income settings. In low and medium HDI countries, we found greater strain associated with pharyngeal carriage than pharyngitis. Improving our understanding of S. pyogenes carriage epidemiology in the pre-vaccine era will help to decipher the direct and potential indirect effects of vaccines.

Advancing progress on tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries through economic analysis

BackgroundMore than 80% of the world’s 1.3 billion tobacco users live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where progress to address tobacco and its harms has been slow. The perception...

Projecting a long‐term healthcare expenditure in the United States: Do climate change, globalization, and technological innovation play a major role?

AbstractRecognizing the paramount importance of health, the United Nations Development Program has outlined sustainable development goals, emphasizing Goal 3, which focuses on ensuring and promoting healthy lives and well‐being for all. Consequently, this study delves into the determinants of healthcare expenditure (HCE), specifically focusing on financial development (FDV), tourism (TOR), technological innovations (TINs), economic growth (EG), and climate change in the United States. The investigation utilizes data spanning from the first quarter of 2000Q1 to the fourth quarter of 2020Q4. To achieve this objective, we employed innovative quantile‐based methodologies, including wavelet quantile regression and quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality. These approaches facilitated a comprehensive exploration of the dynamic interactions between HCE and its influencing factors across various quantiles and periods. The wavelet quantile regression and quantile‐on‐quantile regression analysis findings consistently indicate a positive impact of CO2, TOR, EG, globalization, FDV, foreign direct investment, and TIN on HCE in the United States. Furthermore, the results obtained from the quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality demonstrate that CO2 emissions, TOR, EG, globalization, FDV, foreign direct investment, and TIN significantly predict HCE across all quantiles. These insights have informed the formulation and implementation of various policies addressing the complex interplay between healthcare spending and its driving factors.

The impact of economic globalization on income inequality in middle-income countries in Asia: An empirical analysis from 2018 to 2021

This study investigates the relationship between economic globalization and income inequality in Asia during the period from 2018 to 2021. The research aims to contribute to the academic and policy debates on the impact of globalization on income inequality and to identify effective policy measures that can help mitigate the negative effects of globalization on income distribution in Asian countries. In this study, the relationship between income inequality and economic globalization is analyzed using the Random Effects Model (REM) and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation to address the issues of auto-correlated errors and heteroscedasticity in the selected model. The study utilizes secondary data from the World Bank about 28 middle-income countries in Asia, spanning the period from 2018 to 2021, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations Development Program. The results of the study indicate that economic globalization is positively correlated with income inequality. The findings of this study provide insights and recommendations that can help policymakers, academics, and other stakeholders better understand the complex relationship between economic globalization and income inequality and identify strategies for promoting more equitable economic growth and development in Asia.

Integration of BIPV design and energy efficient technologies for low energy building in meeting net zero target

Based on the World Energy Transition Outlook, almost two thirds of the CO2 emissions released in the world are related to energy emissions with 36 Gigatonnes of energy related CO2 released in 2015. To reduce CO2 emissions by 70 % before 2050, energy efficiency parameters and renewable energy systems will have to be incorporated together to achieve a more sustainable future. The synergy between these two systems could potentially decrease the total final energy consumption of the world by 25EJ, which is by 5 % by the year 2030. One of those synergy methods would be the incorporation of energy efficient building designs and technologies with BIPV systems. Energy efficient building design is the process of upgrading or constructing buildings or elements that are able to maximize the consumption of energy supplied to them by reducing energy losses, through various innovative and effective systems and technologies. BIPV systems are PV products and components that are integrated into the buildings structure. In Malaysia, research and applications of BIPV are just emerging and is still in early development. In the final report submitted to the United Nations Development Program, Malaysia aimed to achieve an increase of 330 % in installed BIPV capacity. This paper aims to simulate an energy efficient building through a specific 3D modelling software, Autodesk Revit, that incorporates BIPV design systems. The method used to create this model will be performed in four stages. First, the development of a comprehensive 3D model of a suitable building. Second, analysis of photovoltaic system of the model. Third, an intricate energy analysis of 3D building and BIPV system via Revit and Autodesk Insight. Lastly, evaluation of the energy consumption of the building and CO2 emissions. This research has managed to reduce the Final Energy Use Intensity of the building from 194 kwh/m2/year to 140 kwh/m2/year and the CO2 emissions from 258 tnes CO2e to 186 tnes CO2e a year. This research presents the integration of energy efficient designs and technologies, with BIPV systems toward low energy building target.

High burden of noma in the Gambella region of Ethiopia: a 12-year retrospective study on noma cases from the Facing Africa database.

Noma, an infectious disease, mainly affects impoverished children. This study retrospectively assessed noma's prevalence in Ethiopia using data from the Facing Africa database and the 2022 United Nations Development Programme poverty index report. A thorough review of medical records spanning 2007 to 2019 identified a total of 235 noma cases. A standardized data extraction template was employed to systematically gather pertinent clinical and demographic data for subsequent analysis. Prevalence rates were calculated nationally and regionally for both the general population and children aged ≤10 y. The analysis revealed estimated national prevalence rates of 0.65 per 100 000 individuals at risk and 1.9 per 100 000 children aged <10 y at risk. The Gambela region exhibited the highest prevalence rate (11.2 per 100 000), whereas the Benshangul Gumuz region had the lowest (0.25 per 100 000). Similar patterns were observed among children aged ≤10 y, with the Gambela and Benshangul Gumuz regions reporting rates of 32.9 and 0.74 per 100 000, respectively. The study highlights noma's significant impact on children aged <10 y in Ethiopia, especially in the Gambella region. It offers crucial baseline data to assist public health professionals, policymakers and healthcare providers in formulating evidence-based strategies to combat noma and improve affected individuals' well-being.

ASPIRATION PICTURE AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION: HOUSEHOLDS’ INCREMENTAL STRATEGIES IN CLIMATE-RESILIENT HOUSING IN RURAL COASTAL BANGLADESH

While housing is a critical component of incremental climate change adaptation, identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate resilient housing implementation is widely focused on the module's safety and modularity, ignoring the beneficiaries' social adaption process underscored by incremental housing ideas. The study explores the incremental adaptation strategies employed by households in climate-vulnerable rural coastal Bangladesh to understand the complex adaptation attitudes of households in social or climate adaptation. The study uses a case study approach with qualitative methods encompassing household interviews, focus group discussions, and in-depth observation on 10 self-built homesteads, 10 Government of Bangladesh (GoB) provided, and 10 United Nations Development Program (UNDP) provided housing modules at Koyra, Khulna. The study observes that households adopt distinct adaptation strategies depending on sittings, roofs, walls, foundations, bedrooms, kitchens, and toilets of modules, which are prone to climate exposure and sensitivity. Therefore, households tackle the delicate complexity of the aspiration picture and social and climate adaptation when the residential situation is coupled with climate vulnerabilities. The study finds that the incomplete nature of a module allows for more aspiration achievement, while a more complete module leads to aspiration adjustments by changing attitudes toward the aspiration picture. This study underscores that in the design of climate-resilient housing modules, it is essential to consider a minimalist approach that can produce more robust climate-resilient homesteads while offering better opportunities for household engagement to enhance knowledge for building back better and safer.

The reported impact of non-communicable disease investment cases in 13 countries

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a leading health and development challenge worldwide. Since 2015, WHO and the United Nations Development Programme have provided support to governments to develop national NCD investment...

Promoting implementation research and One Health approach to respond the four global health challenges: an interpretation of the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) Strategy 2024-2029

Tropical diseases, notably neglected tropical diseases and infectious diseases of poverty, remain major health problems endangering the poorest and most-marginalized people in the world. The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), which is co-sponsored by the World Health Organization, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank, is an important programme that helps facilitate, support, guide and coordinate global efforts to combat tropical diseases. On July 2023, TDR formally issued its 2024-2029 strategy, which proposed the direction and proprieties of global tropical disease prevention and control in the next six years. Based on its original focus on supporting researchers and research institutions from low and middle-income countries to conduct research on tropical diseases and building their research capabilities, this strategy proposed some new developments, which mainly included incorporating tropical disease prevention and control into the overall framework of addressing major global health challenges and achieving the health goals set by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to combat tropical diseases and contribute to achieving health goals of SDGs in a collaborative and integrated manner; supporting implementation research and encouraging practitioners and social innovators to participate in research to enable generation of solutions that may be used to solve local health problems; promoting and encouraging the One Health concept and interdisciplinary and cross-departmental collaboration; shifting gradually its focus from disease prevention and control to addressing the health needs of the poorest and most-marginalized populations. These new developments deserve the attention of personnel and institutions in China dedicated to the prevention and control of tropical diseases in order to help their future researches and activities.

The UNDP’s Global Human Development reports Public Policies of the 1990s for the Development of its people in the world

The concept of Human Development (HD) is a process of enlarging people's choices. In principle, these choice can be infinite and change over time. But at all levels of development, the three essential ones as per United Nations Organization (UNO)’s United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) are for people to lead a long and healthy life, to acquire knowledge and to have access to resources needed for a decent standard of living. If these essential choices are not available, many other opportunities remain inaccessible. But HD does not end there. However, the UNDP’s yearly global Human Development Reports (HDRs) public policies had been focusing on these themes since the first global HDR in 1990 to the global HDR report of 2021-2022. Moreover, in every year, the main focused themes had been different. The research study analysis found that the UNDP’s 1990s global HD reports public policies had been intellectually contributed immensely for the better development of its people during the globalization.

Diversionary Post-Coal Politics in South Africa: A Chinese Solar-Powered Industrial Zone Controversy

In September 2021 at a United Nations climate summit in New York, Xi Jinping announced that there would be no further Chinese coal-fired power plants along the Belt and Road Initiative, which stretches as far as South Africa. Instead, the Chinese operator of South Africa’s single largest Special Economic Zone proposal – in rural Makhado – and his local allies suggested that solar power could supply energy for the $10 billion project, including high-emissions industrial projects. This raised the question of whether firms engaged in mining, smelting, processing and other carbon-intensive activities would pick ‘low-hanging fruits’ within the renewable energy sector (instead of that power going into the grid for broader consumption). Their incentive is to do so, in order to safeguard the so-called Minerals-Energy Complex from Western climate sanctions – threatened, on grounds of high CO2-inputs to export products including steel, aluminium and petrochemicals. In spite of a 2022 United Nations Development Programme endorsement of the project, social and environmental resistance has intensified, but the introduction of solar power for high-emissions metal manufacturing presents a special challenge. Two techniques associated with ecological modernisation – natural capital accounting and the Social Cost of Carbon – may prove relevant to civil society critics of ‘extractivism’, in shifting the narrative further across space, time and scale.

Flood Insights: Integrating Remote and Social Sensing Data for Flood Exposure, Damage, and Urgent Needs Mapping

The absence of comprehensive situational awareness information poses a significant challenge for humanitarian organizations during their response efforts. We present Flood Insights, an end-to-end system that ingests data from multiple non-traditional data sources such as remote sensing, social sensing, and geospatial data. We employ state-of-the-art natural language processing and computer vision models to identify flood exposure, ground-level damage and flood reports, and most importantly, urgent needs of affected people. We deploy and test the system during a recent real-world catastrophe, the 2022 Pakistan floods, to surface critical situational and damage information at the district level. We validated the system's effectiveness through geographic regression analysis using official ground-truth data, showcasing its strong performance and explanatory power. Moreover, the system was commended by the United Nations Development Programme stationed in Pakistan, as well as local authorities, for pinpointing hard-hit districts and enhancing disaster response.

Comparative analysis of higher education on the example of certain countries of the European and Asia-Pacific regions

This study analyses and compares higher education in Germany, France, and Singapore. The authors highlight the similarities and differences between higher education systems in some countries of the European and Asia-Pacific regions. Its structure is described, with consideration to characteristics of each state, the place of these countries in the leading world rankings on the level of education is given (Education Index 2022 of the United Nations Development Programme and Human Development Report 2021–2022). A comparative analysis of the study duration, principles of building a higher education system was conducted. Also, the authors studied participation of employers (organisations and enterprises) and state in the process, along with issues of employment of graduates as a criterion for this method. The role of the relative independence of higher educational institutions in resolving admission issues was identified. The authors examined the stages of mastering programmes, the requirements for applicants when entering educational organisations, the types of degrees, and the procedure for awarding them. The system of dual (practice-oriented) training was explored as a basis for employment of graduates in France and Germany, the principles and goals of its functioning in the analysed states of the European region were clarified.