Projecting a long‐term healthcare expenditure in the United States: Do climate change, globalization, and technological innovation play a major role?

Abstract

AbstractRecognizing the paramount importance of health, the United Nations Development Program has outlined sustainable development goals, emphasizing Goal 3, which focuses on ensuring and promoting healthy lives and well‐being for all. Consequently, this study delves into the determinants of healthcare expenditure (HCE), specifically focusing on financial development (FDV), tourism (TOR), technological innovations (TINs), economic growth (EG), and climate change in the United States. The investigation utilizes data spanning from the first quarter of 2000Q1 to the fourth quarter of 2020Q4. To achieve this objective, we employed innovative quantile‐based methodologies, including wavelet quantile regression and quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality. These approaches facilitated a comprehensive exploration of the dynamic interactions between HCE and its influencing factors across various quantiles and periods. The wavelet quantile regression and quantile‐on‐quantile regression analysis findings consistently indicate a positive impact of CO2, TOR, EG, globalization, FDV, foreign direct investment, and TIN on HCE in the United States. Furthermore, the results obtained from the quantile‐on‐quantile Granger causality demonstrate that CO2 emissions, TOR, EG, globalization, FDV, foreign direct investment, and TIN significantly predict HCE across all quantiles. These insights have informed the formulation and implementation of various policies addressing the complex interplay between healthcare spending and its driving factors.