Unified Growth Theory Research Articles

Sibship size and height before, during, and after the fertility decline

AbstractBACKGROUNDThere is still much to learn about the explanation for the often-found negative association between sibship size and different child outcomes. A plausible explanation is resource competition between siblings in larger families, as suggested by the resource dilution hypothesis.OBJECTIVEThis study contributes to our understanding of these mechanisms by investigating the association between sibship size and height before, during, and after the fertility decline to test predictions based on the resource dilution hypothesis.METHODSThe investigation is conducted using information from universal conscript inspections linked to a longitudinal demographic database. Regression analyses estimate a model derived from the resource dilution explanation and analyze the association between sibship size and height among men born in 1821-1950 in southern Sweden.RESULTSThe results show that the association between sibship size and height was negative from the mid-nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century. There is no association in the early nineteenth century. The strength of the association is gradually weakened over time for men born from the 1840s until the 1940s. It is most consistent among men born from 1881-1921, corresponding closely to the time for the fertility decline in the area. The association is not a result of confounding by observable demographic or socioeconomic differences between families.CONCLUSIONSThe results are in line with resource dilution being an important explanation for the negative association between sibship size and height. Resource dilution in larger families still seems to be dependent on the societal and historical context.1. IntroductionA negative association between the number of children in a family, the sibship size, and the heights of the children has been shown many times for 20th century populations in high-income (Douglas and Simpson 1964; Olivier and Devigne 1983; Mednick et al. 1984; Lawson and Mace 2008; Suliga 2009) and low-income countries (Desai 1995; Jordan et al. 2012; Manley, Fernald, and Gertler 2012), even though no association has been found in some populations (Desai 1995). A negative association between sibship size and the children's outcomes has not only been observed with regard to height, but also, and in an even larger number of studies, with regard to the children's educational outcomes and social mobility (Blake 1981, 1985; Downey 1995, 2001; Sacerdote 2007; see also the review by Steelman et al. 2002).The association between sibship size and child outcomes is thus firmly established, at least in 20th century high-income populations. Much less is known about the mechanisms that lead to these negative associations. The most-used explanations are resource dilution in larger families and confounding. The mechanisms behind the negative associations have implications for our understanding of family dynamics and behavior, and also for our understanding of the demographic transition (e.g., Becker 1993). The presence of the associations in historical populations also has implications for, for example, unified growth theory (Galor 2012) or the theory of the technophysio evolution (Floud et al. 2011). Both theories assume that resource dilution affects child outcomes and this is the most important (Galor 2012), or one of several (Floud et al. 2011), mechanism(s) generating dynamic effects in the models.The fertility decline has also been proposed as an explanation for the secular increase in height and improving health of children from the late 19th century onwards (Reves 1985; Weir 1993; Schneider 1996; Hatton and Martin 2010a). Hatton and Martin (2010a), for example, retrospectively extrapolate based on cross-sectional data from 1930s Britain and suggest that about 25% of the increase in height should be attributed to the fertility decline. These suggestions also make it interesting to test how the association between the sibship size and the living conditions of children has developed longitudinally. …

Contraception and Development: A Unified Growth Theory

Contraception and Development: A Unified Growth Theory

Malthus and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

In the process of economic development economies grow through various regimes, each characterized by different demographic-economic interactions. The changes in these interactions are key elements in different explanations of the escape from Malthusian stagnation. We employ time-varying vector autoregressions, an approach that allows tracking this transition for England in the period between 1541 and 1870. The empirical findings suggest that the link between real wages and population growth was at work until the 19th century. Furthermore, we document changes in the propagation mechanism from real wages on population growth over time that feature prominently in Unified Growth Theory. Most remarkably, in contrast to earlier empirical literature we find strong effects of income on mortality after the 1750s.

Changing the Paradigm

A simple but useful method of analysis of hyperbolic processes is presented and its application is illustrated by using the growth of human population in Africa, the economic growth in Western Europe and the examination of the fundamental postulates of the Unified Growth Theory. It is shown how this method can revolutionize the interpretation of the historical economic growth and the growth of human population and how it can help to understand the current growth. Examples used to illustrate the application of this method show that, contrary to the accepted interpretations, the Industrial Revolution and the accompanying unprecedented technological development had no impact on the economic growth even in Western Europe and that Galor’s Unified Growth Theory fails the scientific test.

The history augmented Solow model

Unified growth theory predicts that the timing of the fertility transition is a key determinant of contemporary comparative development, as it marks the onset of the take-off to sustained growth. Neoclassical growth theory presupposes a take-off, and explains comparative development by variations in (subsequent) investment rates. The present analysis integrates these two perspectives empirically, and shows that they together constitute a powerful predictive tool vis-a-vis contemporary income differences.

Long-Term Determinants of the Demographic Transition, 1870–2000

Abstract This paper analyzes the long-term economic determinants of the demographic transition using a large panel of countries since 1870. A simple theoretical framework accounts for the possibly nonmonotonic variations of fertility in the course of economic development. As predicted by unified growth theory, I find that primary schooling, rather than income or health-related variables, is the most robust determinant of the fertility transition. As regards the health transition, both education and income are significant determinants of mortality rates, but education alone accounts for the bulk of their time variation over the twentieth century. Thus, education can be viewed as the main long-term determinant of the demographic transition.

The History Augmented Solow Model

Unified growth theory predicts that the timing of the fertility transition is a key determinant of contemporary comparative development, as it marks the onset of the take-off to sustained growth. Neoclassical growth theory presupposes a take-off, and explains comparative development by variations in (subsequent) investment rates. The present analysis integrates these two perspectives empirically, and shows that they together constitute a powerful predictive tool vis-a-vis contemporary income differences.

The History Augmented Solow Model

Unified growth theory predicts that the timing of the fertility transition is a key determinant of contemporary comparative development, as it marks the onset of the take-off to sustained growth. Neoclassical growth theory presupposes a take-off, and explains comparative development by variations in (subsequent) investment rates. The present analysis integrates these two perspectives empirically, and shows that they together constitute a powerful predictive tool vis-a-vis contemporary income differences.

The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

We propose a unified growth theory to investigate the mechanics generating the economic and demographic transition, and the role of mortality differences for comparative development. The framework can replicate the quantitative patterns in historical time series data and in contemporaneous cross-country panel data, including the bi-modal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries. The results suggest that differences in extrinsic mortality might explain a substantial part of the observed differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the worldwide density distribution of the main variables of interest.

HOW CHILD COSTS AND SURVIVAL SHAPED THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

This study provides a unified growth theory to correctly predict the initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortality and net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the course of their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate interplay between technological progress, mortality, fertility, and economic growth in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. It not only provides an explanation for the demographic observation that fertility rates response with a delay to lower child mortality, but also identifies a number of turning points over the course of development, suggesting a high degree of complexity in the relationships between various economic and demographic variables.

The evolution of markets and the revolution of industry: a unified theory of growth

This paper puts forth a theory of the Industrial Revolution whereby an economy transitions from Malthusian stagnation to modern economic growth asfirms implement cost- reducing production technologies. This take-off of industry occurs once the market reaches a critical size. The mechanism by which market size affects process innovation relies on two overlooked facts pre-dating England's Industrial Revolution: the expansion in the variety of consumer goods and the increase in firm size. We demonstrate this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to England's long-run development, and explore how various factors affected the timing of its industrialization.

Book Reviews

Elias Dinopoulos of University of Florida reviews “Unified Growth Theory” by Oded Galor. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins: Explores the forces that have generated the transition of the world economy from an epoch of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth and triggered the emergence of the large disparity in living standards across the globe. Discusses the move from stagnation to growth; the Malthusian theory; theories of the demographic transition; unified growth theory; unified growth theory and comparative development; and human evolution and the process of development. Galor is Herbert H. Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University. Name and subject indexes.

Linking Micro-Level Entrepreneurial Action and Macro-Level Economic Progress: The Interdisciplinary and Multidimensional Domain of Entrepreneurship

What is entrepreneurship? Who is the entrepreneur? Why, when and how does entrepreneurship originate and what are its effects across time and border? The lack of a satisfactory definition and conceptual framework of entrepreneurship has undermined the legitimacy of entrepreneurship as a unique field of research with its own contributions. While the lack of integration of the many different aspects of the entrepreneurship phenomenon has hampered the field’s unique potential to provide insight for scholars and policymakers into the intricate, transdisciplinary processes which link micro-level entrepreneurial action and macro-level economic progress. This paper advances the progress of the entrepreneurship research field by providing a unifying definition and conceptual framework of entrepreneurship that captures the entrepreneurship phenomenon from its root cause at the micro-level, human knowledge and entrepreneurial motivation, to its far reaching effects at the macro-level, macroeconomic progress through technological innovation and the emergence of new opportunities. By exploring entrepreneurship with an interdisciplinary approach this paper identifies four mechanisms of reality enhancement, three categories of entrepreneurship, three stages of economic progress and three cumulative barriers to economic progress which together provide a unified growth theory that gives insight into why, when and how micro-level entrepreneurial action contributes to macro-level economic progress.

The Growth of Small Businesses: Towards A Research Agenda

Problem statement: The central objective of this study is to help define a framework for researching the growth of small businesses. Approach: By way of a literature review, the study evaluates current research approaches to small business growth organized around the "key factors" framework proposed which include elements drawn from the characteristics of the entrepreneur, the firm and the business strategy. Results: In the absence of a unified theory of small business growth, models and approaches used to explain small business growth are fragmented and wide-ranging. A consideration of the additional impact on this framework of the external environmental dimension can inject a necessary dynamic element into the research process that is well-placed to capture the process of firm growth, as opposed to the snapshot of firm growth that tends to dominate the existing empirical work. Conclusion: The study concludes that longitudinal and case-based methodologies are needed to develop our existing understanding of small firm growth behavior.

Unified growth theory

Unified growth theory

Study on electrodeposition of Pt

The electrodeposition of Pt is investigated experimentally. The nucleation and growth dynamics are studied through cyclic voltammetry and chronoamperometry and the results are analysed by a unified nucleation and growth theory. Surface morphology is investigated by atomic force microscopy. The hydrogen adsorption/desorption method is utilised to determine the roughness factor of the electrodes. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and catalytic activity study are carried out to compare the electrochemical behaviours of the electrodes before and after Pt electrodeposition.

The Evolution of Markets and the Revolution of Industry: A Unified Theory of Growth

This paper puts forth a unified theory of growth that captures a number of relevant features of countries' transitions from stagnant, predominantly rural economies to vibrant, industrialized economies that have been overlooked by the literature. In our theory, increasing variety of consumer goods and increasing firm size, which are the consequence of a gradual expansion in the market, sow the seeds for process innovation and an economy’s take-off. We demonstrate this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to England’s long-run development, and explore how various factors affected the timing of its take-off.

Large-scale mortality shocks and the Great Irish Famine 1845–1852

This paper considers the consequences of a large scale mortality shock arising from a famine or epidemic for long run economic and demographic development. The Great Irish Famine of 1845–1852 is taken as a case-study and is incorporated as an exogenous mortality shock into the type of long-run unified growth theory pioneered by Galor and Weil (1999, 2000), and modelled by Lagerlöf (2003a,b) among others. Through calibration, the impact of such a mortality shock occurring on the cusp of a country's transition from a Malthusian to a Modern Growth regime is then depicted.

THE 2008 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE—COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: INSIGHTS FROM UNIFIED GROWTH THEORY*

This article explores the implications of Unified Growth Theory for the origins of existing differences in income per capita across countries. The theory sheds light on three fundamental layers of comparative development. It identifies the factors that have governed the pace of the transition from stagnation to growth and have thus contributed to contemporary variation in economic development. It uncovers the forces that have sparked the emergence of multiple growth regimes and convergence clubs, and it underlines the persistent effects that variations in prehistorical biogeographical conditions have generated on the composition of human capital and economic development across the globe.

Malthus Was Right: New Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

Although Unified Growth Theory presumes the existence of the Maltusian mechanism in pre-industrial England recent empirical studies challenged this assumption. This paper studies the interaction of vital rates and real wages in the period from 1540 to 1870 in England. We employ time-varying VARs, an approach which addresses potential shortcomings such as parameter instability and declining volatilities in the previous literature. In contrast to recent studies, the main Malthusian mechanisms - the preventive and the positive check - were both at work until the mid-19th century. The preventive check was decreasing and the positive check increasing in importance. Most remarkably, the positive check dominated after the 1750s. The results indicate that instead of disappearing before the advent of the industrial revolution, the Malthusian mechanism rather changed its face over time.