Unidirectional Relationship Research Articles

Volatility Spillover Effect of NCDEX Spot and Futures Prices in Spices

This research is an attempt to assess the volatility in spot and futures prices in spices on NCDEX. Spot price and futures price Volatility is prominent indicators of the commodity futures market to protect the interest of beneficiaries and to hedge sharp price fluctuations in commodity markets. The study tested price patterns using data with 1777 observations for FY2015 to FY2022 daily spot and futures price series of near month contracts. VECM test and EGARCH were computed to examine spot and futures prices for three selected spices, namely jeera (cumin), turmeric and coriander. The results revealed that Turmeric and Coriander had significant bidirectional relationship and Jeera had significant unidirectional relationship between futures and spot market prices. Higher half-life (days) values of futures prices indicates more stability than spot prices of selected spices. Higher asymmetric effect value of spot market indicates higher volatility impacts because of noisy shocks than futures market.

The role of environmental innovation on ecological footprint in nations with high technology exports concentrations in international trade

This study focuses on four major high-technology exporting countries––the USA, Germany, France, and China––to explore the long and short-run associations among ecological footprint, environmental technology patents, high-technology exports, and economic growth. The sample covering 1988–2019 is subject to a set of structural breaks, including 2009 Global Recession in addition to uncertainty in the order of integration captured by unit root tests, which provide basis for novel Fourier ARDL and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality methods. The Fourier ARDL findings reveal the importance of environmental technology innovations in dampening the level of ecological footprints and promoting a more sustainable environment in the USA, Germany, and France, whereas more high-technology exports in international trade worsen the ecological footprints in these countries in addition to the negative effects of economic growth in all countries including China. In contrast, high-technology exports appear to mitigate ecological footprint in China, however, eco-friendly technologies fail to reduce ecological footprints as in other analysed nations. The causality tests indicate bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships among variables with the exception of China where the neutrality hypothesis holds between economic growth and ecological patents and also high-technology exports and ecological patents. These findings provide important insights in achieving sustainable development.

Leveraging AI for Promoting Sustainable Environments in G-7: The Impact of Financial Development and Digital Economy via MMQR Approach

This study investigates the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in promoting a sustainable environment within the G-7 countries by testing the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis. Additionally, it examines the effects of financial development, the digital economy, and urbanization on the load capacity factor using data from 2010 to 2022. The research employs cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity tests, revealing issues of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. Panel unit root tests, both first and second generation, confirm that the variables are free from unit root problems. Furthermore, panel cointegration tests indicate that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. To assess the impact of the explanatory variables on the load capacity factor, the study utilizes the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between income and the load capacity factor, supporting the LCC hypothesis in the G-7 region. The results also indicate that AI innovation and financial development have a significant positive correlation with the load capacity factor. In contrast, the digital economy and urbanization are found to significantly reduce the load capacity factor. Robustness checks, including the Driscoll-Kraay standard error, Augmented Mean Group, and Common Correlated Effect Mean Group estimation approaches, validate the findings obtained from the MMQR method. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) causality assessment is utilized to explore the causal connections between variables. The results reveal a unidirectional causal relationship between income and the load capacity factor. Additionally, bidirectional causal relationships are the remaining explanatory variables and load capacity factors.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Remittances in SAARC Countries

This study explores the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign remittances on the economies of SAARC countries over the period 2000 to 2023. With the ongoing debate among policymakers and researchers on this subject, the study employs the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model to analyze data from eight SAARC nations. The variables considered include remittances, foreign reserves, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), political stability, and GDP growth, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), while exchange rate volatility is calculated using the GARCH method. The analysis involves two models. In the first model, remittances serve as the dependent variable, with exchange rate volatility, GDP growth, trade, inflation, and political stability as independent variables. In the second model, exchange rate volatility is the dependent variable, with remittances, GDP growth, trade, inflation, foreign reserves, and FDI as the independent variables. The results indicate both long-run and short-run relationships between exchange rate volatility and foreign remittances in SAARC countries. The findings show that remittances are positively associated with GDP growth and inflation, while exchange rate volatility, trade, and political stability have negative relationships with remittances. Additionally, exchange rate volatility has a positive association with inflation, while GDP growth, remittances, trade, FDI, and foreign reserves exhibit negative associations with exchange rate volatility. Granger causality tests reveal complex bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships among the variables. These insights offer valuable implications for policymakers aiming to manage exchange rate volatility and enhance remittance inflows in the SAARC region.

Analyzing the Nexus between AI Innovation and Ecological Footprint in Nordic Region: Impact of Banking Development and Stock Market Capitalization using Panel ARDL method

This study investigates the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) innovation on the ecological footprint in the Nordic region from 1990 to 2020, alongside the effects of banking development, stock market capitalization, economic growth, and urbanization. Utilizing the STIRPAT model, the study incorporates cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity tests, revealing issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The analysis employs both first and second-generation panel unit root tests, confirming that the variables are free from unit root problems. Panel cointegration tests demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated in the long run. To explore the short- and long-term relationships, the study utilizes the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The Panel ARDL results indicate that economic growth, stock market capitalization, and urbanization positively correlate with the ecological footprint in both the short and long run. Conversely, AI innovation and banking development negatively correlate with the ecological footprint. To validate the Panel ARDL estimations, robustness checks are performed using Fully Modified OLS, Dynamic OLS, and Fixed Effects with OLS, all of which support the initial findings. Furthermore, the study employs the D-H causality test to identify causal relationships. The results show a unidirectional causal relationship between AI innovation, stock market capitalization, urbanization, and the ecological footprint. In contrast, a bidirectional causal relationship exists between economic growth and the ecological footprint, as well as between banking development and the ecological footprint.

Do fintech, natural resources and globalization matter during ecological crises? A step towards ecological sustainability

The rate of biodiversity loss and forest depletion has surged significantly, primarily driven by the substantial increase in worldwide environmental deterioration. This alarming development is nearing the critical temperature limit of 2 °C, necessitating increased scrutiny. This study therefore adopts the Load Capacity Curve framework that amalgamates these concepts, offering a guide for implementing a robust and sustainable adaptation plan in the North African region. The research utilized data spanning from 1991 to 2022 and employed advanced quantitative methods, including quantile regression (QR), augmented mean group (AMG), and the Half-Panel Jackknife (HPJ) Wald-type test, to explore causality. The empirical findings challenge the notion of a U-shaped relationship between per capita GDP and ecological load capacity, revealing instead an inverted U-shaped pattern at the 25th and 50th quantiles. Additionally, the study identifies a negative and significant association between natural resource rents and globalization with the ecological load capacity factor, indicating a detrimental effect. On the other hand, Fintech demonstrates a statistically significant and positive impact on environmental sustainability, indicating a mitigating effect. Causality tests further reveal bidirectional causality between ecological load capacity and per capita GDP, GDP squared, and Fintech, while a unidirectional positive relationship exists between globalization and ecological load capacity. Based on these findings, the study puts forth several policy recommendations to support informed decision-making.

Unraveling stock exchange connections: an empirical study of India, US, Hong Kong, Germany, France and Amsterdam

PurposeThe current study immerses itself in the realm of diversification prospects within a select group of preeminent global stock exchanges. Specifically, the study casts its discerning gaze upon the financial hubs of the United States, Hong Kong, Germany, France, Amsterdam and India. In this expansive vista of international financial markets, the present analytical study aims to unravel the multifaceted opportunities that lie therein for astute portfolio management and strategic investment decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe study encompasses daily time series data spanning from 2019 to 2022. To assess the interconnectedness among these stock indices, advanced statistical techniques, including Johansen cointegration methods and vector autoregressive (VAR) models, have been applied.FindingsThe research outcomes reveal both unidirectional and bidirectional relationships between the Indian, Hong Kong and US stock exchanges, encompassing both short-term and long-term time frames. Interestingly, the empirical findings indicate the presence of diversification opportunities between the Indian stock exchange and the stock exchanges of Germany, France and Amsterdam.Research limitations/implicationsThese insights hold significant value for both Indian and international investors, including foreign institutional investors (FIIs), domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail investors, as they can utilize this knowledge to construct more effective and diversified investment portfolios by understanding the intricate interconnections between these prominent global stock exchanges.Originality/valueThis research undertaking aspires to bring coherence to a landscape rife with divergent interpretations and methodological divergences. We are poised to offer a comprehensive analysis, a beacon of clarity amidst the murkiness, to shed light on the intricate web of interconnections that underpin the world's stock exchanges. In so doing, we seek to contribute a seminal piece of scholarship that transcends the existing ambiguities and thus empowers the field with a deeper understanding of the multifaceted dynamics governing international stock markets.

Trade openness, economic growth and economic development nexus in South Africa: a pre- and post-BRICS analysis

This research analyses the interplay between trade liberalisation, economic growth, and economic development in South Africa. The research focuses on two distinct periods, pre-BRICS (1991 to 2010) and post-BRICS (2011 to 2021) and aims to assess economic growth and development trajectories which are intertwined with liberalisation. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to account for potential cointegration among the variables. The study reports a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The study finds that trade openness substantially influences GDP growth in the post-BRICS period and highlights a unidirectional causal relationship between trade liberalisation and economic growth. The research also reveals a positive association between trade openness and economic development, implying that openness fosters growth and facilitates broader development outcomes in South Africa. The research underscores the importance of trade openness as a driving force for economic growth and economic development in emerging economies like South Africa.

Modelling The Role of Institutional Change In A Tourism Growth Model: A Dynamic Analysis

This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, tourism development, and institutional quality in selected MENA countries. The research focuses on assessing the significance of institutional quality within these interlinked dynamics and its impact on the variables under consideration. The study's objective aligns with UNSDG Goal 16, which aims to promote peaceful and inclusive societies with strong institutions that support economic growth and development. The study employs a novel panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation approach to analyze empirical data from 2002 to 2018. This method allows for a comprehensive examination of both short-run and long-run interactions among FDI inflows, financial development, tourism development, and institutional quality across multiple countries in the MENA region. The empirical results indicate that, in the long run, institutional quality negatively influences FDI inflows, financial development, and international tourist arrivals, while it positively impacts real GDP. In the short run, financial development was found to negatively affect real GDP, and international tourist arrivals were observed to negatively impact financial development. Additionally, institutional quality exhibited a negative effect on international tourist arrivals in the short run. Country-wise regression results showed that institutional quality positively influenced international tourist arrivals, FDI inflows, real GDP, and financial development. Furthermore, the study identifies significant unidirectional causal relationships, highlighting the pivotal role of institutional quality in economic growth and development. The study concludes that institutional quality plays a critical role in shaping the dynamics of FDI, financial development, and tourism growth. While institutional quality has a positive impact on long-term economic growth, its negative effects on FDI, financial development, and tourism in the short run suggest the need for improved governance and policy interventions.

Taking the temperature of time: The influence of temperature on people's metaphorical perspectives on time through emotion

AbstractSpace provides the conceptual scaffolding for the understanding of time. Customarily, the movement of events in time is metaphorically conceptualized from two spatial perspectives: the ego‐moving perspective that envisions an observer moving towards a stationary future and the time‐moving perspective that envisages the future moving towards a stationary observer. Extensive work has shown that emotions of opposite valence can yield contrary temporal perspective preferences. Relatedly, much evidence suggests that physical warmth and coldness prompt antithetical emotional evaluations. Threading together these two strands of insights, the current research explored whether ambient temperatures would influence people's metaphorical perspectives on time through a common link to emotion. Study 1 suggested that when deciphering two temporally ambiguous statements, people in warmer spring preferred the ego‐moving perspective, whilst those in colder winter favoured the time‐moving perspective. To determine a causal effect and test the hypothesized underlying mechanism of emotion, Study 2 examined the priming effect of temperature on temporal perspective preferences and emotional states. The results showed that differential temperatures induced opposite emotional responses, which in turn prompted diametric perspectives on time. These findings were replicated in Study 3 using an alternative measure of perspectives on time. Study 4 further validated the mediating role of emotion in the temperature–time relationship. Taken together, the current findings evince a unidirectional relationship between the incidental environmental factor of temperature and the metaphorical representation of time and accentuate the roles of sensory perception and emotional experience in temporal cognition.

Genetic parameters of yield component and yield in M1 rice (Oryza sativa L.) generation irradiated with gamma-ray

High-yielding varieties are the primary determinant of the success of increasing Indonesia's rice production. Plant breeding for new high-yielding varieties is possible through mutation induction and selecting desired traits. The effectiveness and efficiency of selection require comprehensive genetic parameters. This study aimed to study the genetic diversity, heritability, genetic advance, and relationship between yield components and yield in the M1 generation of mutant rice irradiated with gamma ray. This research used a factorial randomized complete block design, involving gamma irradiation doses of 100 Gy, 150 Gy, and 200 Gy, as the first factor; and the second factor was the rice genotype: UnsoedBDBP, UnsoedBDIU, UnsoedBPIU, UnsoedIUBD, and UnsoedIBP. Each treatment was repeated three times. Results showed that traits with broad genetic variation were tiller number plant-1, grain number panicle-1, and grain yield plant-1. High heritability and genetic advance values were found in plant height, grain number panicle-1, and yield plant-1, indicating that improvement in these traits can be achieved simply through selection methods. Panicle number plant-1 and filled grain percentage panicle-1 showed a unidirectional relationship and directly affected high values on yield plant-1. Therefore, these traits can be considered selection indicators for breeding high-yielding mutant rice.

Examining the bidirectional longitudinal associations between body mass index and episodic memory following bariatric surgery

BackgroundThe relationship between obesity and episodic memory (i.e., conscious memory for specific events) is hypothesized to be bidirectional. Indeed, studies have shown that metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) is associated with episodic memory improvement, and better memory is associated with better postsurgical weight-loss outcomes. However, direct tests of the hypothesized bidirectional association between episodic memory and body mass index (BMI) in MBS are lacking, as few studies have employed repeated, prospective assessments of memory in conjunction with bidirectional modeling techniques. ObjectivesThe present study used latent change score analysis to examine the bidirectional longitudinal associations between episodic memory and BMI in the 2 years following MBS. SettingUniversity hospital; public practice. MethodsEpisodic memory function and BMI were assessed in adults prior to MBS, and at 1, 6, 12, 18, and 24-months postsurgery. ResultsA total of 124 participants (41% lost at 2-year follow-up) showed, on average, favorable weight-loss and episodic memory outcomes following MBS. Crucially, presurgery episodic memory predicted initial change in BMI at 1-month postsurgery, and postsurgery episodic memory at 1- and 6-months predicted change in BMI at 6- and 12-months postsurgery. No evidence was found for pre- and postsurgery BMI predicting changes in episodic memory. ConclusionsResults supported a unidirectional prospective relationship between episodic memory and weight change following MBS, such that better memory pre- and postsurgery predicted improved weight-loss outcomes. These findings highlight the likely importance of episodic memory function for weight change and support the potential benefit of targeting memory processes to improve weight-loss outcomes.

ANALISIS KORELASI ANTARA SUDUT SIMPANGAN DAN WAKTU RATAAN PADA BANDUL FISIS DENGAN LATIN SQUARE DESIGN

This study aims to examine the relationship between the angle of deviation and the average time length of a physical pendulum. This study uses primary data, namely practicum report data in a physics laboratory. Data collection was conducted under closed conditions with control variables (shaft length, number of oscillations, and radius of gyration) and dependent variables (angle of deviation and average time). The analysis technique used is a statistical approach technique, namely Latin Square Design analysis. The findings of this study indicate that the variables of deviation angle and average time on the physical pendulum have a strong and unidirectional correlation relationship. This result is evident from the value of F0 > Fcritical and the value of Pr (> P) > 0, 05(significant level) where both of these prove that there is a strong reason to reject H0 which means that there is at least 1 difference in the effect of the angle of deviation on the average time. It shows that the angle of deviation affects the average time of the physical pendulum

The relationship between momentary experiential avoidance and anxiety symptoms

ABSTRACT Background Experiential avoidance (EA) may serve as a risk factor for a wide range of anxiety-related psychopathology. Anxiety is thought to trigger the use of EA, while also serving as a consequence of EA efforts. Previous ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies found that EA was associated with greater anxiety in nonclinical undergraduates and patients with social anxiety disorder. Methods The present study examined the in-the-moment, bidirectional relationship between EA, perceived stress, and two facets of anxiety (autonomic arousal and worry/misery) in a sample of treatment-seeking patients broadly diagnosed with an anxiety-related disorder (N = 46). Participants completed a baseline assessment followed by an EMA assessment period (assessments three times daily for seven days). We hypothesized that there would be a bidirectional relationship between EA and anxiety/stress. Results Results largely supported a unidirectional relationship such that greater EA at one time point predicted higher stress at a later time point controlling for previous stress levels and linear time. Trend-level associations between EA and anxiety symptoms are discussed. Conclusions The current study provides important insight into the relationship between EA and anxiety symptoms in a clinical sample of participants with anxiety-related disorders.

Is trade relevant to the macro drivers of carbon dioxide emissions? A study of high‐ and low‐trade openness economies

AbstractThe objective of this research is to systematically compare the impact of macro determinants on CO2 emissions, using the theoretical frameworks of trade, the Environmental Kuznets Curve, and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis. The study specifically focuses on high‐ and low‐trade‐openness economies from 1995 to 2020. Methodologies employed include stepwise regression, fully modified least squares, pooled ordinary least squares, and fixed effects models. Long‐run dynamics were assessed using Granger causality tests and Pedroni and Johansen cointegration tests. The results indicate both long‐term and short‐term relationships between CO2 emissions and the following variables: (i) gross capital formation (GCF), (ii) per capita income (PCI), (iii) population (POP), and (iv) trade openness. Trade openness has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions in highly trade openness economies, whereas it has a negative effect in low trade‐open economies. Highly open economies are more significantly impacted by GCF and POP on CO2 emissions compared with low‐ trade openness economies. Additionally, PCI positively and significantly influences CO2 emissions in low‐ trade openness countries, and this effect is greater than in high‐ trade openness economies. The study also identifies a bidirectional causal relationship between PCI, GCF, and CO2 emissions in both groups of economies, as well as a unidirectional relationship between trade openness, POP, and CO2 emissions in both high‐ and low‐ trade openness countries.

Sustainable Energy Usage for Africa: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Green Growth Practices to Mitigate CO2 Emissions

In line with Africa’s commitment to keeping up with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, achieving a sustainable future requires balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. This study investigates the long-term impacts of foreign direct investment, economic growth, agricultural production, and energy consumption on CO2 emissions across 43 African nations from 1990 to 2021. Despite significant research on the individual effects of these factors, the combined influence on CO2 emissions remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study employs cross-sectional augmented distributed lag estimators (CS-DL and AMG) and updated estimation packages to effectively examine the relationships between variables. Our findings are as follows: firstly, economic growth and energy use was shown to have a significant positive influence on CO2 in the long term. Also, foreign direct investment significantly promotes CO2 emissions. Secondly, the causality test shows a unidirectional causal relationship between CO2 emissions and foreign direct investment. The test also revealed a bidirectional relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions, as well as between energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Again, a bidirectional causation was observed between agricultural production and CO2 emissions. Thirdly, the impulse response analysis shows that GDP will contribute more to emissions over the 10-year forecast period. This study also proposes policy implications to lessen CO2 across the continent and advocates for the judicious adoption of existing policy frameworks like the 2030 Agenda for environmental Sustainability.

RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF BRICS AND MINT

This study examined the relationship between renewable energy, financial development and economic growth in BRICS and MINT nations. The data used for the study was obtained from the World Bank development indicators from 1990-2022. The data was analysed using panel regression analysis(Pooled OLS) and Fixed Effects as well as the Dumitrescu-Hullin (2012) test for causality the result of the analysis showed that broad money per GDP had a positive impact on economic growth in MINT countries while it had a negative impact on economic growth BRICS nations. Market capitalisation per GDP was found to have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in BRIC nations Renewable energy on the other hand had a negative impact on economic growth in MINT countries while it had a negative impact on economic growth in BRICS nations. Renewable energy also had a unidirectional causality relationship with economic growth. KEYWORDS: Renewable Energy, Financial Development, Economic Growth, Sustainable Development

When the Right Riots: How Ideology, Protest Tolerance, Authoritarianism and News Consumption Affect Perceptions of the US Capitol Insurrection

ABSTRACT After the 2020 presidential election, sustained efforts to overturn outcomes culminated in the invasion of the United States Capitol. While scholars have long investigated the impact of news on support for left-leaning protests, it is critical to understand how political predispositions and news consumption relate to support for anti-democratic movements. Through a survey fielded one week after the invasion, we analyzed how ideology, attitudes about protesting in general, authoritarianism, and media habits relate to people’s support for the movement, perceptions of its disruptiveness, and opinions about police response. Results show that conservative media have a strong unidirectional relationship, increasing support for the movement, while left-leaning or mainstream media impact is moderated by partisanship, which is related to increased support for liberals and decreased support for conservatives. We found authoritarianism related to support for Stop the Steal and perceptions of the police as too severe to suppress it. Evidence suggests elite cues and consumption of conservative media can legitimize insurrectionist movements, even among those who strongly oppose the right to protest overall.

Analyzing the causal relationship between exchange rate and international tourism in Vietnam

The impact of tourism on exchange rates, and vice versa, varies from country to country. This study empirically explores the causal relationship between exchange rates and international tourism in Vietnam. To examine this relationship, data on real exchange rates, foreign tourist arrivals, and real tourism revenue were extracted from the general statistical yearbook from 2000 to 2019. This paper explicitly highlights how exchange rates impact tourism under a government-controlled exchange rate regime. The results indicate a weak unidirectional causal relationship between foreign tourist arrival and real exchange rates. An increase in the real exchange rate increases short-term income but has a negative impact on long-term tourism revenue, while an increase in real tourism revenue reduces the real exchange rate in the short run but is stable in the long run. The research supports the perspective that maintaining a stable exchange rate attracts international tourists in the long term. Based on these findings, the Vietnamese government should adopt a cautious approach to price stabilization policies and encourage export-oriented industries to attract international tourists and promote tourism.

PENGARUH PENERAPAN WEBSITE E-PERSURATAN TERHADAP KINERJA KANTOR KESYAHBANDARAN DAN OTORITAS PELABUHAN KELAS I SAMARINDA

The aim of this research is to find out how the E-Persorat system is implemented and its influence on the Harbor Master's Office and Class I Samarinda Port Authority. This research uses a quantitative research design. The object of this research is the users of the E-Persuratan Website, namely all employees. The data analysis technique used was carried out with the help of statistics and the data analysis used was descriptive and multiple linear regression. The division of testing includes instrument requirements using validity and reliability tests, data analysis requirements testing using linearity tests and data analysis testing using multiple linear regression tests and hypotheses (T test). Based on the analysis test results, it was found that the implementation of the E-Persuratan website had an effect on the performance of the Harbor Master's office and the Samarinda Class I Port Authority. Meanwhile, the implementation of the governance system has no effect on office performance. The phenomenon of these results can be seen from the data validity test of the two variables which are considered valid, the reliability of the two variables is considered valid, the linearity of the two variables is calculated linearly, the multiple linear regression analysis shows that there is a unidirectional relationship between the two variables, while the hypothesis test shows that there is an influence on the variables Website Use and The system usage variable has no influence on office performance