Risk Of Unemployment Research Articles

Estimation of return on investment of Master's degree in Russian conditions

Subject. The article investigates competitive advantages of master's degree holders in the Russian labor market. Objectives. The aim is to assess the impact of obtaining a master's degree on employment prospects, the match between education and job, the wage levels, and job satisfaction in Russian conditions. Methods. I performed a regression analysis of panel data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to estimate the ROI of a master's degree. The personal abilities and social capital of the respondent's family are taken into account, using the individual effects of panel regression. The Heckman model is used for correction of self-selection bias. Results. The paper reveals a significant positive effect of master’s degree on reducing the risk of unemployment and improving the match between the education field and job for women. Men with a master's degree get a higher salary compared to those with bachelor’s degree, but it may be explained by better personal abilities and social capital rather than by formation of skills within the learning process. The master's degree obtained in Russian conditions does not lead to an increase in job satisfaction, which also testifies to incomplete correspondence of competencies formed by master’s degree programs with the needs of the labor market. Conclusions. To increase the return on skills formed by Russian master’s degree programs, it is necessary to improve the content of academic programs and increase the role of potential employers in skill formation and implementation, including through the development of basic departments and targeted training models.

Association Between Pharmacological Treatment of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Long-term Unemployment Among Working-Age Individuals in Sweden

Adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are at greater risk for unemployment. Pharmacological treatment is effective in reducing the core symptoms of ADHD, but whether it helps to reduce the unemployment rate among adult patients remains unclear. To investigate the association between use of ADHD medication and long-term unemployment in working-age adults with ADHD. Data for this population-based cohort study were extracted from Swedish national registers. Among 25 358 individuals with ADHD born from 1958 to 1978, 12 875 middle-aged adults among the workforce were included. The longitudinal cohort was followed up from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013. Data were analyzed from March 1, 2020, through May 31, 2021. Use of medication for ADHD during the previous 2 years was the main exposure, as both categorical and continuous variables. Yearly accumulated unemployed days were derived from the Public Employment Service, and long-term unemployment was defined as 90 or more days of unemployment per year. Overall and sex-specific relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs were estimated using generalized estimating equations. Among 12 875 individuals with ADHD (5343 women [41.50%] and 7532 men [58.50%]; mean [SD] age, 37.9 [5.6] years), the use of ADHD medications during the previous 2 years was associated with a 10% lower risk of long-term unemployment in the following year (adjusted RR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]). An association between use of ADHD medications and long-term unemployment was found among women (RR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.76-0.89]) but not men (RR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.91-1.01]). Longer treatment duration was associated with a lower risk of subsequent long-term unemployment among women (RR for use of 1-6 months, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95]; RR for use of 18-24 months, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.58-0.90]; P < .001 for trend). Within-individual comparisons showed that the long-term unemployment rate was lower during periods of ADHD medication treatment compared with nontreatment periods (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94). The findings of this cohort study suggest that the use of ADHD medication is associated with a lower risk of subsequent long-term unemployment for middle-aged women. These findings should be considered together with the existing knowledge of risks and benefits of ADHD medication when developing treatment plans for working-age adults.

Labour market institutions and immigration policy attitudes: The moderated impact of economic vulnerability.

Political debates about immigration provoke strong nationalistic pushback from citizens, constraining the policymaking capacity of states. This paper investigates to what extent labour market policies shape economically motivated preferential divides among European citizens. On the one hand, I concentrate on prospective job loss threats indicative of economic grievances and assess the impact of unemployment risk exposure on immigration policy attitudes. On the other hand, as the original contribution of the paper, I contend that, if such an economically motivated explanation holds, this relationship should vary based on the labour market institutions in each country. Multi‐level analyses of 16 European countries over a decade since 2002 reveal a remarkably robust relationship between unemployment risks and more restrictive immigration policy attitudes. Importantly, more protective employment regulations seem to have a dampening effect on the impact of job loss threats on immigration policy attitudes. Conversely, there are larger attitudinal divides between the risk‐exposed and the more secure workers in countries with generous and expansive unemployment compensation policies. Overall, the paper helps explain the cross‐national variation in economically motivated cleavages about immigration policy attitudes in Europe.

How to compete with robots by assessing job automation risks and resilient alternatives.

The effects of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) on the job market are matters of great social concern. Economists and technology experts are debating at what rate, and to what extent, technology could be used to replace humans in occupations, and what actions could mitigate the unemployment that would result. To this end, it is important to predict which jobs could be automated in the future and what workers could do to move to occupations at lower risk of automation. Here, we calculate the automation risk of almost 1000 existing occupations by quantitatively assessing to what extent robotics and AI abilities can replace human abilities required for those jobs. Furthermore, we introduce a method to find, for any occupation, alternatives that maximize the reduction in automation risk while minimizing the retraining effort. We apply the method to the U.S. workforce composition and show that it could substantially reduce the workers' automation risk, while the associated retraining effort would be moderate. Governments could use the proposed method to evaluate the unemployment risk of their populations and to adjust educational policies. Robotics companies could use it as a tool to better understand market needs, and members of the public could use it to identify the easiest route to reposition themselves on the job market.

Exporting firms’ factor and product-quality adjustments in response to employment protection legislation: Evidence from China

Employment-protection legislation (EPL) is known to reduce the unemployment risk of workers and employees and implicitly raises the costs of labor as a factor of production, in particular, the adjustment costs for that factor. Using firm-level accounting data and matched transaction-level trade data, the paper documents that firms responded to the inception of a new labor contract law as accepted by the National People's Congress of China in mid-2007 not only by adjusting their labor demand but also in terms of other adjustments: they raised the capital intensity of production and increased the quality of their output. The paper provides evidence that such changes and adjustments were particularly strong for firms in ex ante labor-intensive sectors and for private firms which were less shielded from adverse competitive effects than state-owned ones.

Recommendations for the surveillance of education and employment outcomes in survivors of childhood, adolescent, and young adult cancer: A report from the International Late Effects of Childhood Cancer Guideline Harmonization Group.

Educational achievement and employment outcomes are critical indicators of quality of life in survivors of childhood, adolescent, and young adult (CAYA) cancer. This review is aimed at providing an evidence‐based clinical practice guideline (CPG) with internationally harmonized recommendations for the surveillance of education and employment outcomes in survivors of CAYA cancer diagnosed before the age of 30 years. The CPG was developed by a multidisciplinary panel under the umbrella of the International Late Effects of Childhood Cancer Guideline Harmonization Group. After evaluating concordances and discordances of 4 existing CPGs, the authors performed a systematic literature search through February 2021. They screened articles for eligibility, assessed quality, and extracted and summarized the data from included articles. The authors formulated recommendations based on the evidence and clinical judgment. There were 3930 articles identified, and 83 of them, originating from 17 countries, were included. On a group level, survivors were more likely to have lower educational achievement and more likely to be unemployed than comparisons. Key risk factors for poor outcomes included receiving a primary diagnosis of a central nervous system tumor and experiencing late effects. The authors recommend that health care providers be aware of the risk of educational and employment problems, implement regular surveillance, and refer survivors to specialists if problems are identified. In conclusion, this review presents a harmonized CPG that aims to facilitate evidence‐based care, positively influence education and employment outcomes, and ultimately minimize the burden of disease and treatment‐related late adverse effects for survivors of CAYA cancers.Lay Summary A multidisciplinary panel has developed guidelines for the surveillance of education and employment outcomes among survivors of childhood, adolescent, and young adult cancer.On the basis of evidence showing that survivors are at risk for lower educational achievement and unemployment, it is recommended that all survivors receive regular screening for educational and employment outcomes.

US workers' willingness to accept meatpacking jobs amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

We implement a discrete choice experiment to examine the impact of COVID‐19 exposure risk, unemployment risk, enhanced and extended unemployment benefits, and job attributes on low‐skilled workers' willingness to accept (WTA) meatpacking jobs. With a sample average WTA wage of $22.77/h, the current national average meatpacking wage of approximately $15/h is too low for these workers to consider this employment opportunity. Enhanced layoff risk and exposure to COVID‐19 further deterred respondents, while health insurance, retirement benefits, and a signing bonus enhanced respondents' WTA. The additional unemployment benefits of the CARES Act neither deterred nor encouraged respondents WTA.

Long-term effects of medication for opioid use disorder in children.

Opioid maintenance therapy in pregnant patients can result in children born with neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS). These infants are at high risk for poor school performance, unemployment, and criminal activity because they never reach the neurocognitive levels of their peers. This article discusses the neurocognitive development consequences of medicated opioid use disorder on infants and children and methods to help them reach their potential into adulthood.

Relationship Between Employment Status and Unstable Periods in Outpatients with Bipolar Disorder: A Multicenter Treatment Survey for Bipolar Disorder in Psychiatric Outpatient Clinics (MUSUBI) Study.

PurposeTo clarify the relationship between the length of unstable periods and employment status of patients with bipolar disorder.Patients and MethodsMedical records of outpatients with bipolar disorder who visited 176 member clinics of the Japanese Association of Neuro-Psychiatric Clinics were investigated during September–October 2016, and details of their medical care and employment were surveyed using a questionnaire. The odds ratios (ORs) of length of unstable period and unemployment were analyzed with a logistic regression model.ResultsThe study included 816 patients, of whom 707 were employed full-time (continuous employment) and 70 were unemployed (loss of employment). Univariate analysis showed that ORs were statistically significant for patients who were unstable for “almost all” of the year (OR = 10.4 [4.48–24.28] p < 0.001), but not for “few” unstable periods (OR = 1.06 [0.56–1.98] p = 0.849) and for “significant” unstable periods (OR = 1.65 [0.73–3.74] p = 0.231) were not significantly different. Multivariate analysis showed that ORs were statistically “significant” for patients who were unstable for “almost all” (OR = 12.1 [4.37–33.3] p < 0.001), but not for “few” unstable periods (OR = 1.07 [0.55–2.07] p = 0.846) and for “significant” unstable periods (OR = 1.62 [0.66–3.98] p = 0.290) did not differ significantly.ConclusionPatients with bipolar disorder with a long unstable period were associated with a higher risk of unemployment.

Comparison of employment among people with Multiple Sclerosis across Europe.

BackgroundPeople with Multiple Sclerosis (PwMS) suffer from an increased risk of unemployment during the course of the disease. In recent years progress has been made in increasing the time until patients have to leave the workforce permanently. Such a retirement is often associated with MS but the driving factors including disability progression, support measures at the workplace, and societal aspects are not yet fully understood.MethodsWe consolidated data from four European MS databases from Germany, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which were able to provide data on working status, disability progression and quality of life in accordance with the data harmonization framework of the EUReMS (European Registry in Multiple Sclerosis) project.ResultsFactors strongly associated with unemployment are disability progression, low quality of life and being close to the statutory retirement age. Overall, highest employment rate (77%) and lowest effects of gender and disease duration were found in Sweden.ConclusionsWe found remarkable differences between the European registers and the countries studied, which may indicate inequalities at European level. Furthermore, our findings suggest that it is feasible and useful to combine data from different MS registers in Europe, albeit the data structures are heterogeneous.

The ESM Pandemic Crisis Support Facility: A Changing Conditionality?

Since late 2019, the globe has progressively been affected by a pandemic caused by a new virus named Covid-19. To face the economic and social effects of this crisis, the European Union has predisposed a plan hinged on four pillars. The Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency to provide financial assistance for work and jobs. A fund established by the European Investment Bank in favour of small and medium enterprises. A Recovery Fund to stimulate and support European recovery. A Pandemic Crisis Support facility under which the European Stability Mechanism may provide resources without macroeconomic conditionality in favour of direct and indirect healthcare, cure and prevention related to the Covid-19 crisis. With specific reference to this facility, the absence of macroeconomic conditionality questions its compatibility with the ESM and EU Treaties. This problem could have been cured in the amending process of the ESM Treaty. Unfortunately, it was not so and the solution must be sought elsewhere. This may be done by interpreting the no bail-out rule, holding that the no bail-out rule is suspended or finding that the no bailout rule is satisfied by the national recovery and resilience plans. Alternatively, the facility could have been placed under different umbrellas. However, the exceptional features of the facility are not replicable in the ESM context. ESM, Conditionality, Pandemic Crisis Support facility, Covid-19 Related Healthcare, Justifications

Growing inequality during the Great Recession: Labour market institutions and the education gap in unemployment across Europe and in the United States.

We study how the education gap in unemployment has evolved by gender and age groups across 28 European countries and the United States from 2000 to 2014, using the European Union's Labour Force Surveys and the US Current Population Surveys. During and after the Great Recession, the absolute education gap in unemployment expanded in almost all countries, which was mainly driven by a marked increase in the unemployment risk among low educated men. A two-step multilevel analysis confirmed the negative relationship between the education gap and both (lagged) GDP growth and GDP level. Further, institutional labour market features moderated the impact of the business cycle. A higher share of temporary employment boosted employment for less educated persons, thus flattening the education gradient in unemployment, while a larger public sector somewhat protected more highly educated individuals against unemployment. The gap for young workers was large in settings with strict regular contract regulations.

Differences in labour market marginalisation between refugees, non-refugee immigrants and Swedish-born youth: Role of age at arrival and residency duration.

We investigated if the risk of long-term unemployment (LTU) and disability pension (DP) differs between young refugees and non-refuge immigrants compared to the Swedish-born. The role of age at arrival, duration of residency and morbidity in this association was also investigated. All 19- to 25-year-olds residing in Sweden on 31 December 2004 (1691 refugees who were unaccompanied by a parent at arrival, 24,697 accompanied refugees, 18,762 non-refugee immigrants and 621,455 Swedish-born individuals) were followed from 2005 to 2016 regarding LTU (>180 days annually) and DP using nationwide register data. Cox regression models were used to estimate crude and multivariate-adjusted (adjusted for several socio-demographic, labour market and health-related covariates) hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals. Compared to the Swedish-born, all migrant groups had around a 1.8-fold higher risk of LTU (range aHR=1.71-1.83) and around a 30% lower risk of DP (range aHR=0.66-0.76). Older age at arrival was associated with a higher risk of LTU only for non-refugee immigrants. Both older age at arrival and a shorter duration of residency were associated with a lower risk of DP for all migrant groups. Psychiatric morbidity had the strongest effect on subsequent DP, with no significant differences between migrant groups and the Swedish-born (range aHR=5.1-6.1). Young immigrants had a higher risk of LTU and a lower risk of DP than their Swedish-born peers. No differences between the different immigrant groups were found. Age at arrival, psychiatric morbidity and duration of residency are strong determinants of being granted DP.

Attachment and School Completion: Understanding Young People Who Have Dropped Out of High School and Important Factors in Their Re-Enrollment

When students drop out of high school, this is often negative for their development as well as for society, as those who drop out have an increased risk of unemployment, health problems, and social problems. The aim of the present study was to synthesize knowledge regarding processes related to school dropout in general and school re-enrollment in particular. We performed a narrative review of the literature, focusing on Norwegian and Nordic studies, but we also included studies from other countries when relevant. We discussed the findings in relation to attachment theory and our own research on the topic. As a result, we identified five main challenges to upholding education-related goals in long-term dropout processes: lack of relatedness, overchallenged self-regulation capacity, compensating for a history of failure, wounded learner identities, and coping with prolonged stress. In conclusion, the identified challenges converged on the importance of belonging and social support. The prerequisite for addressing the challenges seemed to be the establishment of a trustful relationship between the students who have dropped out and at least one teacher, and preferably also with other supportive adults. These relationships may provide sufficient social support and aid the students’ motivation to complete school.

Predictors of unemployment status in people with relapsing multiple sclerosis: a single center experience

BackgroundMultiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of nontraumatic chronic neurological disability affecting young adults during their crucial employment years.ObjectivesTo evaluate patients and disease related factors associated to unemployment in a cohort of relapsing–remitting (RR) MS patients.MethodsWe included RRMS patients with a follow-up of at least 1 year. We collected data about years of school education and employment status. Patients underwent a neuropsychological evaluation using the Brief International Cognitive Assessment for Multiple Sclerosis (BICAMS). Demographic and clinical predictors of unemployment were assessed through a multivariable stepwise logistic regression model.ResultsWe evaluated 260 consecutive RRMS patients. Employed patients were less frequently female (68.4% vs 83.3%, p = 0.006), less disabled (median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score: 2.0 (0–7.0) vs 2.5 (0–7.5), p < 0.001), with more years of school education (mean ± standard deviation (SD), years: 13.74 ± 0.30 vs 10.86 ± 3.47, p < 0.001). Female sex and a higher EDSS score resulted associated with a greater risk of unemployment (OR 3.510, 95% CI 1.654–7.448, p = 0.001; OR 1.366, 95% CI 1.074–1.737, p = 0.011, respectively), whereas a greater number of years of schooling and current disease-modifying therapy exposure resulted protective factors (OR 0.788, 95% CI 0.723–0.858, p < 0,001; OR 0.414, 95% CI 0.217–0.790, p = 0.008, respectively).ConclusionsUnderstanding work is pervasively influenced by consequences of MS, we confirmed the impact of demographic, physical, and cognitive factors on employment status in RRMS patients.

Association between migration status and subsequent labour market marginalisation among individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder: a Swedish nationwide register-based cohort study

PurposeThe high prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among migrants in Europe is widely reported. Our research aimed to investigate the association between migration status and subsequent labour market marginalisation (LMM) events, i.e., long-term unemployment (LTU), long-term sickness absence (LTSA), and disability pension (DP) among individuals with PTSD, and to elucidate how the sociodemographic factors and the pre-existing health conditions influence such association.MethodsWe established a cohort of 36,714 individuals born between 1960 and 1995, living in Sweden during 2004–2009, aged 19 years or above, with PTSD diagnosis during 2006–2009. Migration status, categorized as refugees, non-refugees, second-generation migrants, and Swedish-born with Swedish-born parents (reference group) was considered as exposure and LMM events as outcome. The cohort was followed from 01-Jan-2010 until LMM, death, or end of follow-up (31-Dec-2016). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox regression with a seven-year follow-up.ResultsRefugees (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.86–2.30), and non-refugees (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.85–2.07) had almost doubled relative risk of long-term unemployment, compared with the Swedish-born. The hazards of long-term sickness absence were similar across the groups. Refugees (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.24–1.77), and non-refugees (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.30–1.56) also had elevated relative risk of disability pension, whereas second-generation migrants had moderately increased relative risks for all three labour market marginalisation events compared with the Swedish-born.ConclusionAmong the individuals with PTSD, being a migrant increases the risk of LMM, refugees being the foremost among migrants. Further research may benefit from including more recent migrant population, pre-migration information and measuring PTSD clinical severity.

In and out of unemployment—Labour market transitions and the role of testosterone

Biological processes have provided new insights into diverging labour market trajectories. This paper uses population variation in testosterone levels to explain transition probabilities into and out of unemployment. We examine labour market transitions for 2004 initially employed and 111 initially unemployed British men from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (“Understanding Society”) between 2011 and 2013. We address the endogeneity of testosterone levels by using genetic variation as instrumental variables (Mendelian Randomization). We find that for both initially unemployed men as well as initially employed men, higher testosterone levels reduce the risk of unemployment. Based on previous studies and descriptive evidence, we argue that these effects are likely driven by differences in cognitive and non-cognitive skills as well as job search behaviour of men with higher testosterone levels. Our findings suggest that latent biological processes can affect job search behaviour and labour market outcomes without necessarily relating to illness and disability.

A city of exceptional risks? A critical policy analysis of Hong Kong unemployment insurance

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic engenders unemployment risks globally and locally. Reflectively engaging in Beck's risk society debates, this paper critically reviews the discursive effects of „risks“ when employed by the government in debates about unemployment insurance since the 1997 sovereignty handover. We break down the concept of risk into four layers: moral risk, financial risk, socio-economic risk and political risk and bring to light the contradictory outcomes that colour the nuanced attitudes among the state, the NGOs and the affected subjects.

Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information

We conduct an experiment with a representative sample from the United States to study households’ demand for macroeconomic information. Respondents who learn of a higher personal exposure to unemployment risk during recessions increase their demand for an expert forecast about the likelihood of a recession. This finding is consistent with macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, according to which the demand for information depends on its expected benefits. Moreover, respondents’ updating about their personal unemployment risk suggests that households are imperfectly informed about their exposure to aggregate fluctuations, which may distort their beliefs about the benefits of acquiring macroeconomic information. (JEL D12, D83, E24, E32, G01, J64)

Swimming Upstream: Taking Risks as a Woman Living with TBI.

In 1980, I (JPR) acquired a traumatic brain injury (TBI) from a bludgeoning that killed my fiancé and left me with disabilities. Following months of rehab therapies, I became dependent on my parents. My rehab team, parents, and I agreed that my primary goals were regaining my independence and pre-injury quality of life. My former employer welcomed me back, and my providers and family urged me to return to that company. They feared that I might never receive another comparable opportunity and could become permanently unemployed, lacking expert guidance to prevent failure. But I refused to take their advice. I was steadfast in my decision to seek out a new career in a nonprofit agency and avoid spiraling into a depression that could forever make me dependent on family or warehoused in a facility. I found myself alone, on an uncertain path to becoming a professional woman living with new cognitive and physical limitations and PTSD. In this essay, I explore what taking this risk of unemployment meant to me, my rationale for the risk, the hurdles I faced, and how I overcame them to create a personal and professional life that surpassed the quality of my pre-injury life.