Risk Of Unemployment Research Articles

Health-related unemployment trends among survivors of childhood cancer: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS).

10048 Background: The impact of treatment era and chronic health conditions on health-related unemployment among childhood cancer survivors has not been studied. Methods: Childhood cancer survivors (age ≥25 years) enrolled in the CCSS (3,420 diagnosed in the 1970s, 3,564 in the 1980s, and 2,853 in the 1990s) were matched 1:5 on sex, race/ethnicity, census bureau division, age, and year of survey to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a nationally representative population. Among survivors, health-related unemployment was defined as self-reported unemployment due to illness/disability and for BRFSS participants as self-reported inability to work. To standardize follow-up, health-related unemployment was assessed either in 2002-05 or 2014-16 for both cohorts. Sex stratified standardized prevalence ratio (SPR) and relative SPR (rSPR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for health-related unemployment were estimated using multivariable generalized linear models, with BRFSS background rates to assess the impact of treatment era and moderate to severe health conditions (per the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events). Results: Prevalence of health-related unemployment in survivors (median age 9 years [range 0-20] at diagnosis and 33 years [25-54] at follow-up) was significantly higher compared to BRFSS participants (females: 11.3% vs 3.7%; SPR 3.0, 95% CI 2.7-3.3; males: 10.5% vs 3.0%; SPR 3.5, 95% CI 3.1-3.9). Health-related unemployment risks declined among survivors in more recent decades (ptrend< 0.001) for females: 1970s SPR 3.8, 95% CI 3.2-4.5, 1980s SPR 2.9, 95% CI 2.5-3.5, 1990s SPR 2.5, 95% CI 2.1-3.0; and males: 1970s SPR 3.6, 95% CI 2.9-4.4, 1980s SPR 3.8, 95% CI 3.1-4.7, 1990s SPR 3.0, 95% CI 2.5-3.7. Among survivors, multivariable models identified associations between presence of specific health conditions and elevated health-related unemployment (Table) adjusting for all statistically significant health conditions, race/ethnicity, treatment era, age at survey, and diagnosis. Among females, rSPR for endocrine conditions differed between 1970s and 1990s (interaction p = 0.04); fewer significant health conditions remained in the final model for males. Conclusions: While prevalence for health-related unemployment has declined over time, childhood cancer survivors remain at higher risk compared to the general population. These elevated risks are associated with chronic health conditions and affect female survivors more than male survivors.[Table: see text]

Predictors of community-based employment for young adults with intellectual disability and co-occurring mental health conditions

Purpose To identify predictors of community-based employment and employment quality for young adults ages 23–30 with intellectual disability and co-occurring mental health conditions (YA-ID-MH). Methods We conducted secondary analysis of the 2017–2018 National Core Indicators® (NCI®) In-Person Survey. The NCI® survey was conducted in 35 states and Washington DC. Participants: YA with ID, ages 23–30 who had complete data. We conducted multiple regression analyses to examine demographic and environmental predictors of community-based employment, in addition to employment quality indicators: hourly wages, hours worked, and job duration. We also descriptively examined job satisfaction. Results YA-ID-MH were somewhat less likely to be employed per record review and self-report than YA with ID only, but these findings did not reach statistical significance. On average, YA with ID only had higher hourly wages and worked more hours than those with ID-MH, but there were no significant differences in job duration. For YA-ID-MH, predictors of employment included gender, race, level of ID, and residential setting. Multiple demographic and environmental factors predicted employment quality. Conclusions YA-ID-MH experience employment disparities compared to YA with ID only. Service providers should specifically attend to those at the highest risk of unemployment/low quality employment. IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION Young adults with intellectual/developmental disabilities and co-occurring mental health conditions (ID-MH) experience employment disparities. Young adults with ID-MH who are non-white and female may have particularly low employment rates and employment quality. Societal-level interventions to address racial and gender-based bias may support individuals with ID-MH to acquire and maintain jobs by addressing disparities in social networks/social capital and ensuring equitable service provision and supports for those at the highest risk for unemployment. Policy makers should consider additional funding for employment services for transition-age youth with ID-MH, particularly those from marginalized populations.

Effects of age on psychosocial working conditions and future labour market marginalisation: a cohort study of 56,867 Swedish twins

PurposePrevious studies have reported an elevated risk of sickness absence (SA) and disability pension (DP) due to adverse psychosocial working conditions, yet the influence of age and familial factors on the associations have not been examined. We aimed to investigate associations between psychosocial working conditions and labour market marginalisation (LMM) in terms of unemployment, SA and DP adjusting for familial confounding and possible differences in these associations with different age groups and different unemployment and sick leave days.MethodsAll twins living in Sweden in 2001, aged 16–64 years and not on old-age pension or DP were included (n = 56,867). The twins were followed from 2002 to 2016 regarding unemployment, SA and DP. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed for the whole sample, and for discordant twin pairs, in five age groups.ResultsEach one-unit increase in job demands and job control was associated with a lower risk of unemployment, SA and DP in all age groups. Moreover, each one-unit increase in social support was associated with an increased risk of 1–30 days unemployment in individuals older than 45 years and SA and DP. Social support decreased the risk of unemployment longer than 365 days in age groups 16–25 and 36–45 years. In the discordant twin pair analyses, the estimates attenuated towards statistical non-significance.ConclusionEven though familial factors seem to influence the associations between psychosocial working conditions and LMM, improving psychosocial working conditions by for example promoting high job control and social support at workplace may reduce the risk of future short- and long-term LMM in all age groups.

Policies to Help the Working Class in the Aftermath of COVID-19: Lessons from the Great Recession

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated government-mandated shutdowns caused a historic shock to the U.S. economy and a disproportionate job loss concentrated among the working class. While an unprecedented social safety net policy response successfully offset earnings losses among lower-wage workers, the risk of continued and persistent unemployment remains higher among the working class. The key lesson from the Great Recession is that strong economic growth and a hot labor market do more to improve the economic well-being of the working class and historically disadvantaged groups than a slow recovery that relies on safety net policies to help replace lost earnings. Thus, the best way to prevent a “k-shaped” recovery is to ensure that safety net policies do not interfere with a return to the strong pre-pandemic economy once the health risk subsides and that progrowth policies that incentivize business investment and hiring are maintained.

Reprint: Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing

Using data over more than a century, we show that shifts in the location of manufacturing industries are a domestic reflection of what the international trade literature refers to as the product cycle in a cross-country context, with industries spawning in high-wage areas with larger pools of educated workers and moving to lower-wage areas with less education as they age or become “standardized.” We exploit the China shock industries as a set of industries that were in the late-stage product cycle by 1990 and show how the activity in those industries shifted from high-innovation areas to low-education areas over the 20th century. The analysis also suggests that the resilience of local labor markets to manufacturing shocks depends on local industries’ phase in the product cycle, on local education levels, and on local manufacturing wages. The risk of unemployment and detachment from the labor force rises most when a shock hits in areas where an industry already has begun phasing out, wages are high, or education levels are low. The results are consistent with the belief that there are long-term, secular trends in U.S. industrial structure driving the movement of industries, which shocks may mitigate or accelerate.

Risk-Based Selection in Unemployment Insurance: Evidence and Implications

This paper studies whether adverse selection can rationalize a universal mandate for unemployment insurance (UI). Building on a unique feature of the unemployment policy in Sweden, where workers can opt for supplemental UI coverage above a minimum mandate, we provide the first direct evidence for adverse selection in UI and derive its implications for UI design. We find that the unemployment risk is more than twice as high for workers who buy supplemental coverage. Exploiting variation in risk and prices, we show how 25–30 percent of this correlation is driven by risk-based selection, with the remainder driven by moral hazard. Due to the moral hazard and despite the adverse selection we find that mandating the supplemental coverage to individuals with low willingness-to-pay would be suboptimal. We show under which conditions a design leaving choice to workers would dominate a UI system with a single mandate. In this design, using a subsidy for supplemental coverage is optimal and complementary to the use of a minimum mandate. (JEL D82, G22, J65)

Self-employment duration during the COVID-19 pandemic: A competing risk analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused hardship to both individuals and businesses. Aggregate data indicate large increases in unemployment and bankruptcy since the beginning of the pandemic, but it is unclear which individuals and businesses are the most vulnerable. With “work absence”, “wage employment” and “unemployment” as three competing risks or events, we study the relationships of owner characteristics to self-employment duration during the COVID-19 pandemic (January-December 2020) in the United States with data from 19,174 respondents to the Current Population Survey. We find that several owner characteristics relate significantly to self-employment duration during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, young, female, and non-White self-employed individuals face a relatively high risk of unemployment. These and other findings have profound implications for policymakers.

A Comprehensive Model of the Relationship between Miners’ Work Commitment, Cultural Emotion and Unemployment Risk Perception

The psychological health and work commitment of miners are prerequisites to ensuring their sustainable safety behavior, and it is also significant to the sustainable development of coal mines in China. In this context, we conducted a questionnaire survey among coal miners of state-owned coal enterprises to explore the relationships between cultural emotion, unemployment risk perception, Big Five personality traits, and work commitment. The results reveal that (1) cultural emotion and its three dimensions played a significant positive role in promoting work commitment. (2) Unemployment risk perception, policy unemployment risk perception, and individual differential unemployment risk perception had a negative moderating effect. (3) Moreover, work commitment was associated with differences in personality characteristics except for agreeableness. This research is of important theoretical value and practical significance, as it can guide Chinese coal miners to increase their work commitment and thereby improve safety in production.

Social support among people with mental illnesses on probation.

Justice-involved people with mental illnesses, in general, experience poor criminal justice outcomes (i.e., high rates of recidivism and probation revocations) and are at increased risk of homelessness, unemployment, stigma, trauma, and poor physical health. Low social support is repeatedly associated with worse mental health outcomes in the general population but little is known about social support among probationers with serious mental illnesses. To address these gaps in the literature, we used an observational cross-sectional study design and data from a large, randomized controlled trial of specialty mental health probation to examine self-reported social support and its relationships with mental health functioning and other outcomes for individuals with serious mental illnesses on supervised probation. Probationers who self-reported lower levels of social support also reported greater mental health symptomatology and reported lower quality relationships with their probation officers. Low social support among probationers with mental illnesses has important implications for mental health and criminal justice practice and policy. Coordinating services between the criminal justice and mental health systems to offer opportunities for social support and meaningful community engagement for those with mental illnesses who are on probation could improve a number of mental health and criminal justice outcomes for this population. Peer support and supported employment services, for example, in addition to outpatient mental health services, could be two strategies that could address social isolation and help individuals living with mental illnesses optimize their recovery and rehabilitation. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

AUTOMATION, PARTIAL AND FULL

When some steps of a complex, multi-step task are automated, the demand for human work in the remaining complementary sub-tasks goes up. In contrast, when the task is fully automated, the demand for human work declines. Upon aggregation to the macroeconomic scale, partial automatability of complex tasks creates a bottleneck of development, where further growth is constrained by the scarcity of essential human work. This bottleneck is removed once the tasks become fully automatable. Theoretical analysis using a two-level nested constant elasticity of substitution production function specification demonstrates that the shift from partial to full automation generates a non-convexity: humans and machines switch from complementary to substitutable, and the share of output accruing to human workers switches from an upward to a downward trend. This process has implications for inequality, the risk of technological unemployment, and the likelihood of a secular stagnation.

Are Jobs Available in the Market? A Perspective from the Supply Side

Graduate unemployment exhibits a clear increasing global trend, and Malaysia is no exception. The unemployment rate among graduates is witnessing a considerable upsurge, growing from 43,800 in 2000 (15% of total unemployed) to more than 175,500 in 2017 (35%). Numerous programmes have been implemented in order to secure jobs for the unemployed in the labour market; however, the number of unemployed graduates keeps on increasing. It is significant to recognise the main reason behind this issue to tackle the risk of long-term unemployment, specifically from the supply side. Using the Relative Importance Index (RII), this study investigated 402 respondents at selected job fairs to identify the cause of their difficulty in entering the labour market. The findings revealed that the unemployed people believe that the principal cause of their unemployment is the lack of suitable jobs for them in the market. This circumstance sends a signal of asymmetric information between demand and supply in the labour market, especially to young graduates.

Forecasting macroeconomic risks

We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and conditional variance of GDP growth are negatively correlated: downside risks are driven by lower mean and higher variance when financial conditions tighten. Similarly, employment vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and conditional variance of unemployment are positively correlated, with tighter financial conditions corresponding to higher forecasted unemployment and higher variance around the consensus forecast.

Age, Industry, and Unemployment Risk During a Pandemic Lockdown

This paper models the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of lockdown shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. The model features heterogeneous life-cycle households, labor market search and matching frictions, and multiple industries of employment. We calibrate the model to data from New Zealand, where the health effects of the pandemic were especially mild. In this context, we model lockdowns as supply shocks, ignoring the demand shocks associated with health concerns about the virus. We then study the impact of a large-scale wage subsidy scheme implemented during the lockdown. The policy prevents job losses equivalent to 6.5% of steady state employment. Moreover, we find significant heterogeneity in its impact. The subsidy saves 17.2% of jobs for workers under the age of 30, but just 2.6% of jobs for those over 50. Nevertheless, our welfare analysis of fiscal alternatives shows that the young prefer increases in unemployment transfers as this enables greater consumption smoothing across employment states.

In Harm's Way: California Workers at High Risk of Unemployment in the COVID-19 Pandemic

This report estimates the demography, occupations, industries, and communities of California workers who have a high risk of unemployment in the 2020 Covid recession so that they and their employers can be located and provided with timely and effective assistance for preventing economic disaster. It uses data about workers, their occupations and the risk of unemployment from the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the U.S. Department of Labor.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATION IN EDUCATION: FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND PROSPECTS

Modern education systems face new possibilities of application of innovative technological decisions in education that promote adaptive learning systems. Nowadays artificial intelligence becomes the central element of these systems and the basic tool to obtain competitive advantages on education services market. Thus, the aim of our research is to determine main trends, challenges and opportunities in application of artificial intelligence in education, exploring financial and social benefits, prospects and threats of that process. In order to achieve main aim of the research, some general and specific methods, such as content analysis, synthesis, abstraction and logical-graphic structuring, were used. Main trends are presented from three points of view: new horizons of teaching and learning opportunities, new threats for teaching and learning opportunities, and new financial and economic opportunities. Despite the social threats of AI usage, such as risks of human teacher unemployment and social interaction destruction within the learning process, market of AI for education systems steep increase. The highest rates of growth are typical for Asia-Pacific region, particularly for fast-growing economies such as China, and South Korea; North America market for AI in education still maintains the lead. Comparing trends in AI spread in education with financial successes of these countries we conclude that AI use in education systems can mitigate social drawbacks via greater accessibility for knowledge, higher quality of the educational process, individual and country competitiveness increase. Consequently, investments in innovation and promising AI programs in education remain a priority for economic growth and demand further support of educational policy makers.

A gendered pandemic: Childcare, homeschooling, and parents' employment during COVID‐19

AbstractThe COVID‐19 pandemic has dramatically affected employment, particularly for mothers. Many believe that the loss of childcare and homeschooling requirements are key contributors to this trend, but previous work has been unable to test these hypotheses due to data limitations. This study uses novel data from 989 partnered, US parents to empirically examine whether the loss of childcare and new homeschooling demands are associated with employment outcomes early in the pandemic. We also consider whether the division of childcare prior to the pandemic is associated with parents' employment. For parents with young children, the loss of full‐time childcare was associated with an increased risk of unemployment for mothers but not fathers. Yet, father involvement in childcare substantially buffered against negative employment outcomes for mothers of young children. For parents with school‐age children, participation in homeschooling was associated with adverse employment outcomes for mothers but not fathers. Overall, this study provides empirical support for the current discourse on gender differences in employment during the pandemic and also highlights the role fathers can play in buffering against reduced labor force participation among mothers.

PEMBENTUKAN INDEKS MIDDLE INCOME TRAP DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHINYA TAHUN 2015-2018

Indonesia mengalami bonus demografi sepanjang tahun 2017—2030. Namun, momentum bonus demografi yang dialami Indonesia dibarengi dengan mulai berkembangnya revolusi industri 4.0. Permintaan tenaga kerja menurun karena adanya artificial intelligence dan advance robotics yang menggantikan tenaga manusia. Sehingga resiko terjadinya pengangguran menjadi lebih tinggi. Hal ini memperparah keadaan Indonesia yang sedang terjebak dalam middle-income trap. Padahal negara lain dapat memanfaatkan bonus demografi sehingga dapat mendorong perekonomian. Penelitian ini mengungkap eksistensi middle income trap pada level provinsi berdasarkan sisi kapasitas ekonominya dengan membentuk indeks middle income trap. Selain itu, menguji secara statistik apakah tingkat pengangguran yang tinggi ini akibat adanya bonus demografi menyebabkan Indonesia belum dapat keluar dari middle income trap. Selama periode 2015—2018, terdapat 20 provinsi yang terjebak dalam MIT dan 14 provinsi yang tidak mengalami MIT. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pengangguran usia dewasa dan rasio gini berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks MIT, sedangkan pembentukan modal tetap bruto, angka partisipasi kasar perguruan tinggi, dan pertumbuhan nilai tambah bruto sektor manufaktur berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap indeks MIT.

Unemployment Risk, Liquidity Traps, and Monetary Policy

When the economy is in a liquidity trap and households have a precautionary motive to save against unemployment risk, adverse demand shocks cause severe deflationary spirals and output contractions. In this context, we study the implications of optimal monetary policy, which consists of keeping the nominal rate at zero longer than implied by current macroeconomic conditions. Under such policy and incomplete markets, expected improvements in labour market conditions mitigate the rise in unemployment risk and decline in demand. As a result, market incompleteness may alleviate contractions in output and inflation during a liquidity trap. However, reducing market incompleteness mitigates the fall in demand under realistic monetary policy rules.

Passthrough of Firm Performance to Income and Employment Stability

To what extent do firms pass through idiosyncratic shocks to their workers? In this paper, we investigate this question focusing on passthrough to income for workers that stay in the firm and passthrough to employment stability. We take an empirical approach and use matched employer-employee data from Denmark, three different measures of firm performance (sales, value added, and value added per worker), and two measures of income (earnings and hourly wages). We distinguish between unemployment and job-to-job transitions. We find that passthrough to income is much higher for permanent (5-9 percent) than transitory (1 percent) shocks. Income passthrough is higher for blue collar workers and workers in small firms. On the employment margin, we find that worse firm performance increases both unemployment and job-to-job transitions. The unemployment risk is especially pronounced for blue collar, low-educated, low tenure workers, while the effect on job-to-job transitions is larger for managers and high-educated workers. We also find clear evidence of non-linearities with negative shocks driving both unemployment and job-to-job transitions.

Unemployment risk, liquidity traps and monetary policy

Unemployment risk, liquidity traps and monetary policy