Unemployment Indicators Research Articles

Artificial Intelligence: Intensifying or mitigating unemployment?

The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is simultaneously fostering a proliferation of novel job opportunities while rendering some traditional roles obsolete and specific skills outdated. Previous research has failed to consider the short-, medium-, and long-term variations in AI's impact on unemployment, which may lead to an incomplete understanding of the AI-employment relationship. This paper examines daily data from January 4, 2013, to August 12, 2024, utilising advanced wavelet-based Quantile on Quantile Regression (QQR) methodology to assess AI's impact on the Unemployment Index (UI) across quantiles and time scales, with a sample size of 2820 drawn from a larger dataset totalling 4241 observations. The conclusions reveal that AI generally positively impacts UI in the short term, especially with AI at 0.6–0.7 quantiles, as automation replaces workers faster than new job roles emerge and skills transform. However, in the medium term, positive and negative effects balance as new jobs and skills emerge through continuous industrial restructuring. In the long run, AI predominantly mitigates UI by further enhancing economic development, fostering skill upgrading, and facilitating market adjustments, but this result does not hold during AI at 0.7 quantiles and UI at the highest quantiles, such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Under new technological revolution and industrial transformation, we formulate China-specific suggestions to avert potential AI-induced unemployment crisis from short-term, medium-term, long-term, and sector-specific perspectives.

Foreign Direct Investment: Does it Increase Economic Growth?

Economic growth is one indicator of development. Factors that are thought to be capable of influencing economic growth include the human development index, income, poverty, investment, and unemployment. So it needs to be analyzed to achieve sustainable development. This study aims to analyze the effect of human development index, income, poverty, investment, and unemployment on economic growth. The research method used is descriptive quantitative with panel data regression analysis. The data consists of six provinces on the island of Java starting from 2010-2021. The results of the study show that the development, income and unemployment indices have a negative and significant effect on economic growth, while the poverty and investment variables do not have a significant effect on economic growth. The government must be able to allocate an efficient budget that has a direct impact on economic growth both in the long term and in the short term. For the government to be able to focus more on policies on human development and expanding employment opportunities to be able to overcome economic growth in Java.

Modelling and Forecasting of EUR/USD Exchange Rate Using Ensemble Learning Approach

Abstract The aim of the study is to obtain an accurate result from forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate. To this end, high-performance machine learning models using CART Ensembles and Bagging method have been developed. Key macroeconomic indicators have been also examined including inflation in Europe and the United States, the index of unemployment in Europe and the United States, and more. Official monthly data in the period from December 1998 to December 2021 have been studied. A careful analysis of the macroeconomic time series has shown that their lagged variables are suitable for model’s predictors. CART Ensembles and Bagging predictive models having been built, explaining up to 98.8% of the data with MAPE of 1%. The degree of influence of the considered macroeconomic indicators on the EUR/USD rate has been established. The models have been used for forecasting one-month-ahead. The proposed approach could find a practical application in professional trading, budgeting and currency risk hedging.

LEADERSHIP FAILURE AND INSECURITY IN NIGERIA: A STUDY OF THE IPOB PHENOMENON IN SOUTH EAST GEOPOLITICAL ZONE, 2020-2022

Success or failure of any society relies upon in large part the mannerism of its management. The result of poor leadership in Nigeria is embodied as poor governance manifested in consistent political crisis and insecurity, poverty of the extreme order among the citizens, unscrupulous corruption, and a high rate of unemployment indices, for this reason, the thrust of this paper is on leadership failure and insecurity in the southeastern part of Nigeria: a study of the IPOB phenomenon. Data have been accrued through the use of a documentary approach and analyzed through the content material evaluation approach. The study become anchored on interventionist theory. The paper discovered that the state of violence in Nigeria’s southeast and the government’s incapability to efficiently defend existence and assets are taking a toll on nearly all elements of existence, which includes socio-monetary improvement. The violence additionally negatively influences the livelihoods of citizens, who ply their alternate in the informal casual economy. The activities of the IPOB secessionist group also affected Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo states by killing policemen, burning and looting police stations, and killing various innocent citizens in these states. The study in this manner prescribes amongst others that state governments have to work on a zonal framework to articulate and pursue a sturdy improvement blueprint for the region. This has to consist of centered empowerment programmes designed for unemployed youths to limit their vulnerability to recruitment through separatist and crook groups.

The Impact of Monetary Environment on Unemployment in the Republic of Croatia

The assumption is that expansionary monetary policy is good for reducing unemployment, and vice versa. In this context, the status of monetary policy is defined, which is called monetary conditions. For this, the IFIS Financial Conditions Index published by the Institute of Economics, Zagreb, was used as a synthetic indicator of the state of numerous monetary variables (27 variables). By analysing the movements of restrictive and expansionary monetary conditions presented by the IFIS index and the unemployment rate conducted in this paper, it can be concluded that there is a strong link between the index of macroeconomic monetary conditions and unemployment in Croatia. This relationship operates with a time lag of one year, i.e., a change in monetary conditions leads to a change in the overall unemployment rate after one year. Although there is a link between monetary conditions and youth unemployment, it is weaker because youth unemployment is significantly influenced by other factors. These are primarily emigration after Croatia’s accession to the European Union and liberalization of the labour market.

Evaluation of affecting mechanisms of urban development and its regional penetration

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Nowadays, many factors and forces impact urban development and uneven growth are the product of various processes such as political, physical, economic, social, and cultural ones. This study aims to evaluation and analyze the mechanisms affecting the urban development of Boroujerd city located in Lorestan province of Iran and its regional penetration after a proposal of a conceptual framework.METHODS: The research method is structural-analytical-descriptive, which is the main purpose of applied research by collecting data, analytical, quantitative, and documentary methods that have been used to explain the conceptual framework of research in the form of indicators. Delphi with an emphasis on fuzzy logic was also utilized.FINDINGS: The results of regression analysis showed that the correlation coefficient of the variable land exchange on Boroujerd urban development is equal to 0.740 and also the level of activity of this city in the two economic sectors of industry and services is of basic type and showed a higher value than other urban areas of the province and it is mentioned up to unemployment index shows that this city has less unemployment (19.3%) than other cities in the province and the average rate of the province (23.9%).On the other hand, the impact of factors and indicators of natural population growth in Boroujerd in the field of urban development was 1.97, which was a small part of urban population growth and development.CONCLUSION: Finally, it can be said that economic and social indicators have an undeniable role in the formation and development of the city and its penetration of influence and should be considered by city officials and stakeholders. So based on the development of policies such as Planning to organize the privacy and sphere of influence, preventing the settlement of immigrants, prevent the land mechanism and also new development patterns can solve the future matters of the city. Finally, for future research, the scale of action of urban sphere of influence can be proposed and evaluated with mid-scale variables.

A babel of web-searches: Googling unemployment during the pandemic

Researchers are increasingly exploiting web-searches to study phenomena for which timely and high-frequency data are not readily available. We propose a data-driven procedure which, exploiting machine learning techniques, solves the issue of identifying the list of queries linked to the phenomenon of interest, even in a cross-country setting. Queries are then aggregated in an indicator which can be used for causal inference. We apply this procedure to construct a search-based unemployment index and study the effect of lock-downs during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic. In a Difference-in-Differences analysis, we show that the indicator rose significantly and persistently in the aftermath of lock-downs. This is not the case when using unprocessed (raw) web search data, which might return a partial figure of the labour market dynamics following lock-downs.

New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy

ABSTRACT In developed economies, macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and price indices tend to predict new credit expansion. We explore whether business and consumer surveys complement traditional macroeconomic variables in predicting new household and corporate loans in the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Using monthly data for Slovakia, starting in 2009 and ending in 2019, we use Bayesian model averaging to examine 102 potential credit drivers. Our results show that, with the exception of interest rates and unemployment, traditional macroeconomic variables do not seem to drive credit market development. Instead, survey-based perceptions, calendar effects and policy uncertainty show relevant predictive power.

Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat kemiskinan pengeluaran pemerintah, pengangguran dan pendapatan asli daerah terhadap indeks pembangunan manusia di Provinsi Jambi

This study aims to: 1) To analyze the development of economic growth, poverty rate, government spending, Unemployment, local revenue, and human development index (IPM) in Jambi Province 2000-2019, and 2) To analyze the effect of economic growth, poverty rate, government spending, Unemployment and local revenue to the human development index (HDI) in Jambi Province 2000-2019. The research analysis tool uses multiple linear regression analysis tools. The results showed that the tax effectiveness ratio in Merangin Regency from 2004 to 2019 was in the very effective category with an effectiveness ratio of 108.07 percent. Furthermore, based on the results of multiple linear regression that only the poverty level and government expenditure variables have a significant effect on HDI in Jambi Province. Meanwhile, economic growth, Unemployment, and PAD have no considerable effect on HDI in Jambi Province. Keywords: Economic growth, Poverty rate, Government expenditure, Unemployment

Digital Agenda, New Technologies and Education for the Integration of Europe: an Economic Study

New technologies are a key factor for integration in Europe by enabling citizens to solve their daily problems and interact with people everywhere. The European Commission established the Digital Agenda for Europe with the aim of improving the speed of navigation, establishing a single market for telecommunications and achieving a digital single market. We highlight the importance of applying new technologies in the field of education, since teaching and learning through these means will contribute to increasing creativity and reasoning capacity, allowing for more interactive and participative learning. The Horizon Report and the new emerging technologies proposed by that report are analysed, and are aimed not only at facilitating learning, but also at enabling a more integrated Europe. It also presents some technological ideas to be developed in the educational field that will enhance the development and integration of the EU Member States. Furthermore, in order to analyse the influence of the use of the Internet and new technologies on other socio-economic variables, a regression analysis has been carried out. The objective is to study whether in any way the fact that citizens use the Internet affects variables such as Gross Domestic Product, unemployment or Human Development Index which may affect the integration of Europe.

СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ СИСТЕМЫ МОНИТОРИНГА УРОВНЯ ОЦЕНКИ ЧЕЛОВЕЧЕСКОГО КАПИТАЛА В ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНОМ СЕКТОРЕ

The article examines and describes the main systems of monitoring the human capital level, under which we represent the leading international organizations (United Nations Development Program, World Bank Analytical Group, World Economic Forum Research Group). The article presents a view on the problems of assessing the level of human capital using the index method of assessment. The purpose of this article is to analyze the systems for monitoring the level of human capital and modernize the index method for assessing the level of human capital, calculated annually by UNDP. As part of the human development index, two new components are proposed that more fully assess the state of the income index — the unemployment index and the wage index. The reason for the change in the calculation method is substantiated, and the final formula for calculating the human development index is derived.

THE IDEA OF MUSIC BUSINESS

This paper captured the need to include ‘Music Business’ as a course of study in Music Departments and Business Schools across Higher Institutions in Nigeria. This call was necessitated by the growing zeal and number of students, youths, entrepreneurs, businessmen and women, music enthusiasts and investors who are enthusiastic about engaging in the music entertainment industry across the country in the face of rising unemployment indices in the country. Music educators have also awakened to the realization that some of the courses and music specialties offered students are insufficient and inadequate in meeting with the demands of the economic hardship and burgeoning business world around them. Definitely not all students have flairs or interest in music composition, music teaching, or music performance; some have flairs for music business where they can excel in packaging and managing music for events. Unarguably, music features in virtually all social engagements around the world and the Nigerian society such as meetings, weddings, rallies, religious gatherings, ceremonies, funerals, seminars and conferences, banquets, etc., and it is appropriate therefore that such endeavor be given adequate attention in scholarship to ascertain its functionalism and pragmatic ways of sustaining, improving, and promoting the art. The paper therefore recommends that Departments of Music and Business schools across the country should recognize the imperatives of ‘Music Business’ as part of their curriculum of studies to the end of fostering functional education among the youths.

The Economic Development Impact To Environment Quality : Kuznet’s Curve Hyphothesis and Non Linier Regression Approach

This study aims was to identify impact of economic development factors to the the environment quality by using Kuznet's Curve Hyphotesis and non linear regression. The determinants studied are indicators of economic development such as Gross Domestic Regional Income (GDRI) of the industrial sector, mining sector, agricultural/plantation /forestry/fishery/livestock sectors, poverty, unemployment and human development index (HDI). While the environmental quality indicators used are Water Quality Index (WQI), Air Quality Index (AQI) and Land Cover Quality Index (LCQI). The data used is secondary data from the Department of Environment, the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources, and also the Central Bureau of Statistics of South Kalimantan Province. Secondary data types used include WQI, AQI, LCQI, GDRI, poverty, unemployment and HDI data for the period 2006 – 2020.
 The method used in this study is descriptive quantitatively using Kuznet's Curve hypothesis and non linear regression. The final results obtained from this study include (1) The influence of economic development indicators on environmental quality is in accordance with Kuznet's Curve hypothesis and shows non-linear relationships. (2) Only the unemployment indicator is not identified non-linearly due to the adjusted value of R Square < 0 and the significance of the > 0.05.

ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL LEVEL USING THE UPGRADED HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

This article discusses the measurement of human capital using an indirect method of evaluation – the Human Development Index (HDI). Each year, UNDP experts present the HDI in Human development reports. The problem of improving the human development index is presented and solved by introducing new components in its structure – the unemployment index and the wage index. The aim of the study is to test the results of the modernized human development index on the example of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The key research methods are synthesis and comparative analysis, with the help of which the structure of the index is analyzed in detail; the method of selecting and processing a statistical database is applied; the graphical method is used to construct illustrative material, as well as the empirical method of research. The article presents the rating of Russian regions, compiled on the basis of the improved human development index. A comparative analysis of two methods of calculating the index is carried out – the UNDP method and the author's method. Two methods of calculating the human development index are also analyzed in detail, their method is analyzed. It is clearly shown what changes occurred in the formulas for calculating the main indicators included in the structure of the human development index.

Googling Unemployment During the Pandemic: Inference and Nowcast Using Search Data

Researchers are increasingly exploiting web-searches to study phenomena for which timely and high-frequency data are not readily available. We propose a data-driven procedure which, exploiting machine learning techniques, solves the issue of identifying the list of queries linked to the phenomenon of interest, even in a cross-country setting. Queries are then aggregated in an indicator which can be used for causal inference. We apply this procedure to construct a search-based unemployment index and study the effect of lock-downs during the covid-19 pandemic. In a Difference-in-Differences analysis, we show that the indicator rose significantly and persistently in the aftermath of lock-downs.

The Impact of Unemployment and Human Development Index on Poverty in Gorontalo Province 2008-2017

This research aims to analyze the impact of unemployment rate and human development index on poverty in Regecies and City in Gorontalo Province. This research uses Panel Data Regression analysis with fixed effect model (FEM). This research uses regional datasets from the Registration Management Information System (SIMREG) and datasets from Central Statistics Bureau (BPS) during 2008-2017. Main findings of this research indicates that (i) unemployment rate has positive but insignificant impact on poverty rate; (ii) human development index has positive and significant impact on poverty rate. 
 
 Keywords: Unemployment Rate; Human Development Index (HDI); Poverty.

The Role of Political Institutions in Economic Growth and Development of Nigeria

Theoretical and empirical evidences support the notion that political institutions enhance economic performance in incipient democracies. It is the aim of this paper to ascertain the impact of political institutions on the performance of the Nigerian economy from 1999 to 2018. Consequently, it examines the concepts of political institutions, economic growth and development as well as reviews the trend in real GDP growth rates, youth unemployment and human development index in Nigeria. It was observed that during the 19 years of democratically elected government, there was consistent GDP growth from 1999 to 2002; fluctuating and declining growth from 2003 to 2018. The desired economic growth for the most populous country in Africa was somewhat a mirage and development snail speed. It supports the findings of Anwana and Affia (2018) that political institutions negatively impact growth and development in Nigeria. It suggests a revamp of the current political institutions (the rule of the game) by well meaning Nigerians, the need for reorientation of the masses about the innate power to vote out bad leaders and creation of a system that allows for proper representation of the masses at the state and national houses of assemblies. Improving economic growth and development in Nigeria requires a paradigm shift in her political institutions. Keywords: Economy, political institutions, growth, development, Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-4-17 Publication date: February 29 th 2020

Diversionary cheap talk: economic conditions and US foreign policy rhetoric, 1945-2010

ABSTRACTThis study explains how the economy affects the foreign policy rhetoric used by American presidents. When economic conditions deteriorate, presidents criticize foreign nations to boost their approval ratings. Presidents use this “diversionary cheap talk” in response to the misery index of unemployment plus inflation, which poses a unique threat to their popularity. They target historical rivals, which make intergroup distinctions most salient. Diversionary cheap talk is most influential for and most frequently used by Democratic presidents, whose non-core constituents prefer hawkish foreign policy but already expect it from Republican presidents. I test the observable implications of the theory with the American Diplomacy Dataset, an original record of 50,000 American foreign policy events between 1851 and 2010 drawn from a corpus of 1.3 million New York Times articles.

Comparing Sentiment- and Behavioral-Based Leading Indexes for Industrial Production: When Does Each Fail?

We apply a relatively novel leading–lagging (LL) method to four leading and one lagging indexes for industrial production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in predicting the general changes in IP (−0.596, range −1.0 to 1.0, −1.0 being best). The ZEW index is very close (−0.583). In third place comes, somewhat unexpectedly, the behavioral-based unemployment index (−0.564), and last comes order flow, OF (−0.186). Second, we applied the LL method to predefined recession and recovery time windows. The recessions were best predicted (−0.70), the recoveries worst (−0.32), and the overall prediction was intermediate (−0.48). Third, the method identifies time windows automatically, even for short time windows, where the leading indexes fail. All indexes scored low during time windows around 1997 and 2005. Both periods correspond to anomalous periods in the German economy. The 1997 period coincides with “the great moderation” in the US at the end of a minor depression in Germany. Around 2005, oil prices increased from $10 to $60 a barrel. There were few orders, and monetary supply was low. Our policy implications suggest that the ZEW index performs best (including recessions and recoveries), but unemployment and monetary supply should probably be given more weight in sentiment forecasting.

ECONOMIC TYPOLOGY APPROACH TO CALCULATE UNEMPLOYMENT INDEX AND REGIONAL POVERTY RATE (STUDY IN TAPAL KUDA AREA OF EAST JAVA)

The aims of this study is determining the level of unemployment index then linking the calculation of the unemployment and poverty index through mapping the economic typology, so in the end determining the form of government intervention on the solution of rigidity in the labor market and its relation to poverty in the residency area. The location of research is the area of East Java that called "Tapal Kuda". The research method used was a descriptive quantitative analysis of the location typology mapping by strengthening the results of calculation of index numbers and poverty. The results of the study reveal that the unemployment index for the majority of Tapal Kuda areas is said to be bad and has high poverty rates. This is inversely proportional to the potential of the Tapal Kuda area as a gateway for the distribution of goods and services, through an analytical approach, the availability of local community access to the economy is minimal, the lack of strengthening a community-based economy, the labor market is rigid, and wages are absorbed in the society with formal employment. The form of government policy recommendations is expected to strengthen the economy of society through local wisdom, bipartite strengthening between the government and companies with flexible wages. Reducing the amount of poverty can be done by stimulating wage policies, aligning the informal sector, strengthening MSMEs, reducing the consumption pattern of luxury goods, increasing per capita income through employment and increasing non-physical investment.