Abstract
Researchers are increasingly exploiting web-searches to study phenomena for which timely and high-frequency data are not readily available. We propose a data-driven procedure which, exploiting machine learning techniques, solves the issue of identifying the list of queries linked to the phenomenon of interest, even in a cross-country setting. Queries are then aggregated in an indicator which can be used for causal inference. We apply this procedure to construct a search-based unemployment index and study the effect of lock-downs during the covid-19 pandemic. In a Difference-in-Differences analysis, we show that the indicator rose significantly and persistently in the aftermath of lock-downs.
Highlights
The economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic is unprecedented in recent history
We contribute to a growing literature investigating the economic consequences of covid-19 by showing how unemployment-related online searches across the EU27 reacted to the introduction of lock-downs
We focus on unemployment and investigate the response to lock-down measures enacted by Governments to ght the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus
Summary
The economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic is unprecedented in recent history. The literature on the labour market impacts of the pandemic and subsequent containment measures has focused on single countries (e.g., Aaronson et al, 2020; Amburgey et al, 2020; Baert et al, 2020; GoldsmithPinkham and Sojourner, 2020; Kahn et al, 2020; “ahin et al, 2020) or few selected countries (Adams-Prassl et al, 2020). Once we add all the keywords linked to the topic unemployment and perform variable selection using random forest-based methods, the predictive accuracy increases signi cantly in almost all countries Drawing from this nding, we select the queries that best predict the unemployment rate, separately for each country, and aggregate them to create a daily indicator of unemployment-related searches.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
