Conditions Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Sustainable optimization of micro-milling machining parameters considering reliability assessment

Micro-milling is a crucial machining technology used for complex and precise 3D parts and plays a crucial role in modern manufacturing. In this work, to comprehensively evaluate the safety, economic feasibility, and environmental friendliness of the micro-milling processing process, a sustainable optimization framework including reliability assessment is designed. Firstly, modeling and experimental measurements are conducted on sustainability evaluation standards such as tool life, machining process, machining surface quality, material removal rate, machining cost, and carbon emissions. Subsequently, the influence of physical information such as observation/measurement data and processing errors is analyzed, and a Bayesian update method is proposed and integrated with neural networks to precisely inversion the probability distribution of parameters within the optimization cycle under conditions of uncertainty. Finally, combined with the overall sustainability indicators, the multi-objective optimization process is refined through penalty functions and weighting methods, aiming to achieve the best balance between processing performance and sustainability. The simulation and experimental results have verified the superiority of the developed framework, and the present method provides valuable guidance for sustainable micromanufacturing.

РАЗВИТИЕ ВАЛЮТНОГО РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ ЭКСПОРТНЫХ ОПЕРАЦИЙ В РФ

Export operations are of particular relevance because they are carried out under conditions of uncertainty and high risk. The sanctions economy is caused by a number of factors that have a direct impact on export-oriented enterprises, leading to a number of consequences. Today, export operations are the sector that is regulated by the state in order to develop stable infrastructural links between exporters' organisations and to reduce the sanctions impact on exporters' enterprises. The main task is to provide conditions for the development of export operations, building international cooperation of exporters' organisations, and on the other hand to carry out control functions, as well as to build transparency of information support, to ensure the reliability of foreign exchange operations in terms of export relations. The state has developed a number of measures to reduce risks, one of which is the system of currency regulation and control. Therefore, this topic is topical. The article presents a review of normative acts and highlights the main directions of regulation of export operations on the territory of the Russian Federation. The modern problems of exporters are formulated, the principles of currency regulation of currency control in terms of export operations in modern conditions through digital mechanisms are disclosed

FEATURES OF THE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY IN MODERN CONDITIONS

The hotel business is one of the key elements of modern entrepreneurship, especially significant in the context of expanding the territorial framework of business, political, and scientific communications; development of sports and tourism, as well as improving the quality of life of the population. The hotel business, both in domestic and international practice, is a promising and rapidly evolving field of entrepreneurial activity, which concentrates a significant potential for development both at the local and international level, capable of bringing stable income. It has been proven that the management strategy of hotel enterprises is designed to ensure economic growth in the conditions of uncertainty of the socio-economic development of the hotel industry, significant innovative changes, expand the horizons of prediction and thereby create the possibility of a timely response of the hotel industry enterprise to those changes that occur in the external environment. It has been established that each of the types of management of a hotel enterprise differs from each other not only in terms of the implementation of its main functions (planning, regulation, forecasting, organization, control, accounting and analysis), as well as in the detailing or consolidation of the implementation of economic, financial, organizational and social indicators, but also, being in a single management system, should be equally focused on achieving the main goal – obtaining the greatest result in the form of hotel and related services with rational use of labor, material, technical and financial resources.

Modeling and optimization of costs associated with the development of clustered organizational management structures in construction companies

The article aims to examine models and methods of cost optimization associated with the development of clustered organizational structures in construction companies. The research methodology involved an analysis of existing approaches, simulation modeling, and econometric equation analysis. As a result, different approaches to cost estimation and optimization applied in the construction sphere are presented. Particular attention is paid to the development of complex models and their optimization under the conditions of uncertainty through simulation modeling of various scenarios of cluster organizational structures in construction companies. The analysis also includes an assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of econometric semi-linear dynamic equations and the feasibility of their application. The discussion section emphasizes the importance of integrating different optimization methods to achieve the most optimal outcome in the management of construction companies. Further research directions are outlined. The results can be relevant when formulating development strategies and making investment decisions in the construction sphere. The research conclusions confirm the significance of applying modern cost optimization methods to improve the management efficiency of construction companies and their competitiveness in the market of construction services.

The genesis of the development of the category of trust and mistrust in science

The Relevance. The initial manifestations of trust were recorded in the political philosophy of Ancient Greece and Ancient China, on the basis of which thinkers determined the interconnection and interdependence of relations between government and society. Further developing in line with political sociology, trust as the principle of “fides” (“faith”) from the Roman law was conceptualized by M. Weber as an “emotional product” of a social contract, violation of the terms of which does not carry sanctions, with the exception of the loss of business reputation. The category of trust was significantly enriched during the development of sociology of the 20th – early 21st centuries, and thanks to the works of P. Sztompka and F. Fukuyama, it gained understanding of the conditions for sustainable development of society in conditions of uncertainty, in which the individual proceeds from the “credit” of confidence in the respectable behavior of another and absolute confidence in one's own actions. In recent years, a “crisis of confidence” in science as a social institution in modern society has been recorded.The problem of the research is to identify the peculiarities of understanding the category of “trust” by the classics of sociological science and their applicability in modern science.The goal of the research is to study the relationship between the dynamics of trust in Sociology in the scientific community and in science as a social institution as a whole.The methodological basis of the reseearch is a systematic approach and general methods of scientific knowledge, such as analysis, synthesis, generalization.The Research results. The classics of sociological science have enriched the motivational, value and political meanings of the concept of «trust» in modern science.

Bound‐based control design for permanent magnet linear motor servo system with inequality constraints and uncertainties

AbstractThe permanent magnet linear motor (PMLM) systems are widely applied in various engineering fields. However, the state inequality constraints and uncertainties of parameters and unknown external disturbances need to be further explored. In this article, first, a state transformation method is proposed for converting bounded states to unbounded states. As a result, the output state of system is limited within the expected boundary constraint. Then, a new control strategy is constructed. This strategy can ensure that the controlled system with uncertainties is uniformly bounded and uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, the effectiveness of the controller and the state transformation method are verified through simulation of PMLM system. The inequality constraints of the output state are satisfied, and the system performance is improved.

The impact of risk factors on the sustainability of food distribution chain functioning in Kazakhstan

In conditions of risk and uncertainty, food security is ensured taking into account the requirements of isolation, safety and health, which requires changes to the existing supply chain (SC) system in the food environment, as well as the creation of more sustainable food supply chains. The aim of the study is to assess the conditions and factors of the functioning of the food commodity distribution chain (FCDC) of the agri-food market in conditions of risk, in particular, the COVID-19 pandemic. To formulate a conceptual framework reflecting the structure of the SC elements, the method of systematic review and generalization of literature was used; the method of expert survey of participants in the SC of food products (FP). During the analysis, seven significant factor constraints (technological, financial, economic, institutional, social, epidemiological, geographical) were revealed, the environment and operating conditions of the FCDC associated with the impact of the pandemic were identified. The risk factors of the environment and operating conditions of the FCDC and their possible effects on the SC are evaluated. Practical recommendations are given to reduce risks and improve the efficiency of the agro-food commodity distribution SC. The study attempts to study the influence of various factors caused by the restriction of the functioning of the food environment and affecting the stability of the SC of perishable products. The results could also be used to inform SC participants about the measures needed to create more sustainable SC foods in the future.

Developing a local development strategy in conditions of global uncertainty

Opierając się na badaniach literaturowych z różnych dziedzin i dyscyplin oraz własnej praktyce w planowaniu strategicznym, autor przedstawia zagadnienie tytułowe w trzech kontekstach. Po pierwsze, arbitralnie wskazuje cechy świata niepewności, w którym przyszło żyć w pierwszych dekadach XXI w. W kontekście obserwowanych zjawisk oraz zmieniających się uwarunkowań prawnych wskazuje cechy strategii rozwoju lokalnego, które stanowią przykłady nowatorskiego podejścia do problematyki zarządzania terytorialnego. Autor zarysowuje te elementy planowania strategicznego, które wiążą się z aktualnymi wyzwaniami cywilizacyjnymi. W dalszej części artykułu zademonstrowano, w jaki sposób sztuczna inteligencja jest w stanie pogodzić wymogi nowatorskiego planowania lokalnego z potrzebą tworzenia kroczących, hybrydowych strategii rozwoju.

ОРГАНІЗАЦІЙНО-МЕТОДИЧНЕ ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ АУДИТУ БЕЗПЕРЕРВНОСТІ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ

The article is concerned with disclosing the theoretical, organisational foundations and methods of continuity audit based on analytical procedures. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the theoretical, organisational and methodological foundations of the going concern audit of enterprises under conditions of uncertainty. Object of research - organisational and methodological support for the audit of business continuity of enterprises. Methods used in the study: scientific cognition, method of generalisation, comparison, logical and substantive, methods of induction and deduction, analysis. The main hypothesis is the development of organisational and methodological foundations of the going concern audit based on the expansion of analytical procedures to meet the information needs of stakeholders about the status and potential of the financial viability of the enterprise's going concern under conditions of uncertainty. Summary of the main material. Under martial law, the importance of the continuity audit as a tool for protecting the interests of users of financial statements and ensuring that stakeholders are aware of the state of financial solvency and prospects for sustainable development of enterprises increases. Organisational and methodological support of the continuity audit is determined by the objectives of the audit and the needs of stakeholders to obtain reliable information on the assessment of financial viability to ensure continuing operations in the future. The proposed methodology for auditing the going concern of enterprises based on analytical procedures provides a holistic view of the organisation of the audit by the following stages: 1) analysis of liquidity and solvency of enterprises; 2) analysis of profitability potential; 3) analysis of financial stability; 4) analysis of risks of activity; 4) analysis of the potential of continuous activity of the enterprise. Particular attention in the process of a going concern audit is paid to the classification and analysis of business risks. Analytical procedures for assessing business risks, determining reserves to cover losses of economic benefits in relation to the risks of non-payment of receivables and reduction in the value of financial instruments have been substantiated. The methodology for auditing the going concern of enterprises based on the expansion of analytical procedures, the implementation of which provides an opportunity to generate high-quality information to assess the potential of the enterprise's going concern, taking into account the risk and prepare a reasonable audit opinion, is original and of practical importance. Conclusions. The implementation of scientific and methodological recommendations on the organisation and methodology of the continuity audit based on the expansion of analytical procedures will help to obtain sufficient evidence for a realistic assessment of the potential of financial solvency of enterprises, preparation of the audit opinion on compliance with the principle of continuity and improve the quality of the audit.

Optimization of the Parameters of a Model Predictive Control System for an Industrial Fractionator

The problem of parametric synthesis of a model predictive control (MPC) system by the chemical process of production of the kerosene fraction of an industrial fractionator under conditions of constraints and uncertainty is considered. The optimal parameters of the MPC algorithm are obtained as a result of solving the problem of multi-criteria optimization, taking into account the intervally specified parameters of the plant model.

Effects of a Video-based Education Program for Cerebral Angiography on Patients’ Outcomes: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Purpose: We investigated the effects of a video-based education program for cerebral angiography on patients' state anxiety, uncertainty, nursing care satisfaction, and complications.Methods: The randomized experimental study included patients who underwent cerebral angiography at a university hospital in Bucheon, Gyeonggi-do between January 2023 and August 2023. Patients were assigned to the experimental group (n=50) and the control group (n=48). The program included video- and pamphlet-based education. The intervention included video-based education provided to the experimental group and conventional pamphlet-based education provided to the control group. Data were obtained pre-, post-, and 2–7 days post-intervention. Data were analyzed using the x²-test and the repeated measures analysis of variance test with the SPSS software, version 28.0.Results: The experimental group showed lower levels of state anxiety (x²=4.316, <i>p</i>=.038) and uncertainty (x²=3.974, <i>p</i>=.046) than the control group. However, we observed no significant intergroup differences in satisfaction with nursing care and complication rates.Conclusion: The results suggest that a video-based education program for cerebral angiography can effectively reduce state anxiety and uncertainty in patients undergoing cerebral angiography. Video-aided educational interventions can improve the quality of nursing care with regard to reducing state anxiety and uncertainty in patients who undergo cerebral angiography.

An integrated planning approach for perishable goods with stochastic lifespan: Production, inventory, and routing

This paper focuses on addressing the crucial challenges posed by the uncertainty surrounding perishable goods within the supply chain. With staggering socioeconomic costs and significant environmental implications, effective management of perishable goods emerges as a critical imperative. Globally, the annual loss of approximately 14% of food, amounting to a staggering USD 1 trillion, highlights the urgency of the issue. However, Prevailing classification methods for perishable products oversimplify their complexity by dividing them into fixed or variable lifespans, neglecting the random lifespans endured due to fluctuating storage conditions, blurring traditional boundaries between fixed and variable classifications. In response to these pressing challenges, the research proposes a novel approach: the development of a nonlinear mixed-integer programming model for a green closed-loop supply chain. This innovative model seamlessly integrates production, inventory, and routing decisions for both main and secondary products of a manufacturer. Moreover, it optimizes order splitting and transportation modes to efficiently convert perished items into raw materials under conditions of uncertainty. Central to the approach is the adoption of a scenario-based methodology to model uncertainties, particularly focusing on the variability in the lifespan of perishable products. This approach allows for a more nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics inherent in managing perishable goods within the supply chain. To solve the proposed model, a novel hybrid algorithm is introduced: the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm, or PSOSA, ensuring robust optimization under uncertainty and enhancing decision-making within the perishable goods supply chain. The research findings underscore the inadequacy of prevailing assumptions regarding the fixed lifespan of perishable products, commonly observed in the literature. By accounting for uncertainty in perishable goods’ lifespan, a more accurate representation of total producer costs is achieved, highlighting the misleading reduction of 25% observed when neglecting such uncertainty.

The relationship between individual characteristics of interhemispheric asymmetry and cognitive style “impulsivity/reflectivity”

The article at the theoretical and empirical levels discusses the peculiarities of the relationship between functional asymmetries of the cerebral hemispheres of younger schoolchildren with the cognitive style « impulsivity-reflexivity. The main approaches to studying this issue in domestic and foreign studies are characterized, a conclusion is made about the relevance of its consideration. The study used the device Activacyometer-6 (Yu.A.Tsygareli) and the technique “Choosing a paired figure” (J.Kagan). The study made it possible to establish and clarify the existence of differences in the processing of information by the left and right hemispheres of the brain, as well as to confirm the existence of a certain connection between the functional asymmetry of the hemispheres with such manifestations of cognitive style as “impulsivity – reflexivity” In particular, it is given that the existence of individual differences (5% level is significant) in the speed of decision-making leads to the fact that children, who are characterized by left-sided hemispheric organization, have “reflexive” signs, make decisions slowly, are prone to analytical means of categorization, are more attentive to individual details, better control their behavior, use more productive means of solving problems and perform tasks with the least number of errors. On the contrary, children who have right-sided asymmetry demonstrate a thematic means of categorization, they are characterized by manifestations of impulsivity, they are less attentive, hyperactive in their actions, give very quick answers, most often focusing on the influence of momentary emotions. The investigation led to the conclusion that in certain conditions of uncertainty, when it is necessary to make the right choice from a number of alternatives, impulsive subjects made their choice quickly, without careful study of alternative options. In turn, reflective subjects, on the contrary, made their decisions on the basis of careful study of all. Pros and cons, while using more productive ways to solve problems.

Creation of an identifier database for the ammonia synthesis computer control system

The object of research is the control system of the synthesis department of the large-tonnage ammonia production unit of the AM-1360 series. An analysis of the functioning conditions of the synthesis department was carried out. The significant influence of the content of inerts in the synthesis cycle on the energy efficiency of ammonia production is shown, the optimal value of which depends both on the accepted level of prices for energy carriers and on the method of using purge gases. The need to create a computer-integrated control technology to optimize the use of purge gases is established. The function of the identifier of such a control technology is defined, namely, continuous refinement based on current information about the state of the main sections of the synthesis department, such as the synthesis column, primary and secondary condensation. The operation of these stations takes place in the conditions of seasonal and daily changes in the heat load, which causes parametric uncertainty of such parameters of the connection of the mathematical model as the concentration of ammonia in the circulating gas at the outlet of the stations listed above. Numerical assessment of these uncertainties according to the results of analytical studies for such technological objects is most often performed using stochastic approximation methods. Let’s note that the significant inertia of the objects of the synthesis department under certain conditions makes it impossible to adapt the parameter to its actual value. An algorithmic base has been created for the formation of an information array of the identifier of the computer-integrated control technology of the ammonia synthesis department, which ensures the separation of transient modes under conditions of uncertainty and allows to perform the task of identifying processes in the synthesis column, in the primary and secondary condensation units. The proposed algorithm allows to perform convergence in the department both on the general and on the component material balances. The algorithm is implemented in the MatLab application program package and tested by means of simulation based on experimental data of industrial operation of AM-1360 series ammonia synthesis units.

System model of risks and trees of alternative solutions for improving the logistics chain at a manufacturing enterprise

The subject of this article is the decision-making processes for improving the elements of the supply chain of a manufacturing enterprise under conditions of uncertainty and risks. The purpose of the research is to reduce the time and cost of in supply and distribution of products of manufacturing enterprises by considering possible risks through making rational management decisions. The article addresses the following tasks: examination of the characteristics of supply chain elements; investigation of the main problems of supply and distribution management and identification of ways to solve them; development of a systemic model of logistic risks for a manufacturing enterprise; and formation of decision trees for alternative decisions in strategic supply chain management at manufacturing enterprises. The methods applied include a systems approach, structural decomposition methods, a risk-oriented approach. The following results were obtained: features and problems of supply chain elements such as supply, production, storage, and distribution were examined and identified; main supply chain management tasks were investigated and solutions identified; problems in warehouse management were pinpointed; internal and external supply risks were identified; a systemic model of logistic risks for a manufacturing enterprise was formed, which main components are logistic problems, partial risks, their consequences, and possible management decisions to mitigate risks; decision trees were built for problems of raw material supply instability and transportation bottlenecks and delays; an alternative decision diagram was constructed for an illustrative example. Conclusions: To overcome the problem of raw material supply instability, it is recommended to develop diversification of supply sources, stock reservation, and the use of alternative transport routes. Building alternative decision trees in strategic management is an effective tool for making rational decisions by manufacturing enterprises in complex conditions of uncertainty and risks. They help to analyze alternatives and their consequences to choose a path to optimize the supply chain.

A small team as an effective group and center of leadership

Building an ideal small team capable of solving problems that are beyond the capacity of an ordinary group of specialists is a long and exhausting process. This article presents the ability to work in a small team as the most valuable personality trait. Describing the small team philosophy as highly effective, the author of the article presents it as a reference model of gifted and talented individuals, a well-coordinated combat unit, a special centre of leadership, flexibility and psychological compatibility. Revealing the effectiveness of a small team in the symbolic range of two images of “Simplicity”-“Complexity”, the author derives the symbolic rule of “Simplicity”: the effectiveness of success is rooted in the ability to work only with small teams of smart people. It is proved that as soon as the number of people in a team increases, “Complexity” is automatically introduced. The article also describes the philosophy of a two-person team. It is proved how much more effective, constructive and motivated it can be compared to a large team. It is highlighted that the key to the success of a two-person team is the holistic dominance of five components: 1) psychological safety; 2) reliability; 3) structure and clarity; 4) awareness; 5) influence. It is found out that a small team is a homogeneous combat unit, since it is designed to promote the origination of a new, emergent mind, the need for which increases significantly in the conditions of high danger, constant change and uncertainty. The author emphasises that the coordinated work of a small team in a dangerous environment requires rapid adaptability, constant reassessment of the situation, discussion and coordination. In such a team, its members, sending signals to each other every minute, decoding the responses, should understand every step and intention of their partner, as this is the key to life and victory.

Implementation of artificial intelligence methods to the processes of automated metrics forecasting for software systems development projects

The subject matter of the article is the process of automated forecasting of project metrics for software development projects that are typically subject to evaluation. It also covers AI methods and models that can be used to generate basic roadmap templates and operational work lists, as well as alternative estimates depending on the context. The goal of the work is to study the foundations of creating a system for automated predicting of alternative evaluations of a software product. The following tasks were solved in the article: determining the stages of evaluation related to the assessment of alternatives in the life cycle of a software development project; investigating the problems of predicting and the main factors affecting the final indicators; exploring predicting methods that can be used to implement multivariate assessment of a software development project. The following methods are used: methods for evaluating and predicting labor costs in software development projects, machine and deep learning, and assessing their effectiveness for solving the prediction problem. The following results were obtained: the conceptual foundations for creating automated evaluation and prediction systems based on the analysis of the effectiveness of selected machine learning models were determined, the areas of application for artificial intelligence methods in the process of evaluating software development project indicators were identified, the performance indicators of various machine learning models were assessed based on certain model evaluation parameters that characterize prediction accuracy; a conceptual architecture of a project roadmap generation software tool based on the GPT language model was proposed. Conclusions: the use of machine and deep learning methods can improve the accuracy of predictions for key project indicators, provide the possibility of flexible generation of various alternative roadmap templates and operational work lists, making the planning and management process more efficient and transparent under conditions of high uncertainty of project requirements.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE CHANGE MANAGEMENT MODEL AT THE HOTEL INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES

The article is devoted to the development of methodological approaches and practical recommendations for improving the change management model in the enterprises of the hotel industry. Based on the definition of the functioning peculiarities of modern enterprises of the hotel industry, it is proved that traditional and classical models of change management are ineffective in modern changing conditions, and it is substantiated that the model of change management at enterprises of the hotel industry should be based on a situational approach, which transforms it into an "improvisational" one. The change management model, in which managers make decisions based on intuition and change management is carried out through constant improvisation, represents a flexible and adaptive approach to managing an organization in conditions of constant uncertainty and variability of the external environment. Key aspects of this model include the acceptance of intuition's importance in the decision-making process, where managers value intuitive propositions and apply them in their activities. Instead of pre-designed and tough change strategies, change management is based on the organization's ability to quickly adapt to changes and respond to situations that arise in real time. The effectiveness of such a model is supported by an open and active exchange of information and ideas between management and employees, which helps stimulate improvisation and making non-standard decisions. The article proposes an algorithm for managing changes in hotel industry enterprises, developed taking into account the survey results of employees of 25 Ukrainian hotels of various categories. This algorithm works in the form of a continuous cycle and consists of six stages. The results of the survey also emphasize the relevance of the problem of effective change management in the modern hotel sector.

INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN UKRAINE: SITUATION, PROBLEMSAND POSSIBLE WAYS OF IMPROVEMENT

The article presents the results of a study of the state, problems and possible ways to improve the investment climate in Ukraine in the new extreme conditions of doing business. Improving and stabilizing the investment climate in Ukraine during martial law is necessary to ensure economic development, attract international resources, rebuild infrastructure, strengthen the international image and protect national business. The purpose of the article is to study the state and problems of the formation of the country's investment climate in conditions of full-scale military operations, analysis of the main factors affecting the level of investment attractiveness of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty, study of the main ways and directions of improvement of the investment climate in Ukraine.As a result of the research, it was established that the investment climate should be defined as a set of political, economic, legal, social-cultural, scientific-technological, demographic, infrastructural and natural-geographical factors that form the degree of investment attractiveness and determine the level of investment risk. A model of the formation of the investment climate in Ukraine was built, taking into account the main factors of the internal and external environment of enterprises and organizations under martial law. The main threats and changes in the macro-environment of the country under the influence of the war are structured. It was found that there was not a single field of activity of economic entities that was not affected by the war. One of the main ways to improve the investment climate in Ukraine today is the insurance of military and political risks, which is an extremely important aspect for protecting capital investments and ensuring business development. It is the stabilization of the investment climate that will prevent the outflow of capital abroad and preserve resources for further development. In addition to large-scale infrastructure reconstruction projects, investments can be aimed at supporting small and medium-sized businesses, which are an important source of innovation and jobs.

Risk Transmission in Low-Carbon Supply Chains Considering Corporate Risk Aversion

In order to study the impact of risk aversion characteristics of enterprises on supply chain risk transmission, the risk aversion utility function is introduced, and the risk elasticity coefficient is used to construct a supplier-dominated low-carbon supply chain risk transmission model. Simulation analysis is conducted to investigate the transmission of emission reduction and revenue risks caused by internal and external contingent risk factors. The study reveals that under conditions of market demand uncertainty, the risk transmission effect is unaffected by the risk aversion characteristics of members in the low-carbon supply chain. While the risk-aversion characteristics of suppliers can decrease their own profit risk, they have a negative effect on the profit risk of manufacturers and the emission reduction risk of supply chain nodes. There exists a critical threshold for the impact of the risk-aversion degree of suppliers on their own emission reduction risk transmission effect. When this threshold is exceeded, the emission reduction risk decreases with increasing risk aversion intensity of suppliers, and vice versa. The risk aversion characteristics of manufacturers can weaken the negative effect of supplier risk aversion on the fluctuation risk of manufacturer profits, but they exacerbate the emission reduction risk transmission effect of manufacturers under asymmetric information influence. The findings have important theoretical and practical implications for supply chain risk management.