Uncertainty In Estimates Research Articles

Siting Considerations for Satellite Observation of River Discharge

AbstractWith growing global capability for satellite measurement of river discharge (flow) comes a need to understand and reduce error in satellite‐based discharge measurements. Satellite‐based discharge estimates are based on measurements of water surface width, elevation, slope, and potentially velocity. Site selection is important for reducing error and uncertainty in both conventional and satellite‐based discharge measurements because geomorphic river characteristics have strong control over the relationships between discharge and width, water surface elevation (or depth), slope, and velocity. A large ground‐truth data set of 8,445 conventional hydraulic measurements, collected by acoustic Doppler current profilers at 503 stations in the United States, was developed and quality assured to examine correlation between river discharge and water surface width, depth, velocity, and cross‐sectional area. A separate database of river surface slope and discharge time‐series was developed from paired continuous monitoring stations to examine slope‐discharge correlations. Results show that discharge correlates most strongly with velocity, cross‐sectional area, depth, width, and slope, in that order. Uncertainty of satellite discharge estimates is affected by observed hydraulic variable and reach‐specific variability in observed variable(s) characteristics including range of variability, georegistration accuracy, and stability over time of relationships between discharge and observed hydraulic variable.

Evaluation of dissipation kinetic models to describe trifluralin degradation in soil and assessing the uncertainty of the half-life estimate

In Australia, trifluralin is one of the commonly used herbicides to manage annual grasses and some broadleaf weeds. However, it may have some ecosystem impacts such as high toxicity to terrestrial and aquatic life, so it is vital to monitor the degradation of trifluralin for a considerable period for environmental safety. For risk assessment purposes, it is necessary to estimate the half-life of trifluralin, which is often evaluated using derived mathematical dissipation models. In the literature, bi-exponential (BEXP) and gamma models were suggested for modelling the dissipation of trifluralin in soil. Both models provide the half-life estimate without discussing the uncertainty of the estimate, which is a shortcoming in the literature. In this paper, we used simulation to illustrate the importance of estimate's uncertainty (standard error) and demonstrated a method to compute the standard error for the half-life estimate mathematically for kinetic dissipation models. Later, we evaluated the performance of the two suggested models using statistical indices. The computation of the half-life and the standard error of the half-life estimate were discussed. This allows us to describe the inference of the half-life parameter and determine whether the half-life estimates are significantly different against the co-variate (moisture) levels. We demonstrated the method to calculate the standard error of the half-life of trifluralin, which allows us to determine the statistical difference between the estimates. In this study, we found that the half-life of trifluralin in soil tends to increase with increasing moisture levels, and the half-life of trifluralin in soil with 100% moisture level is significantly greater than 40% and 70% moisture levels. Our findings suggest that soil moisture levels should be carefully considered before trifluralin application to minimize the non-target environmental damage.

Uncertainty in official statistics1

One of the challenges faced by organisations that provide official statistics is how to convey the uncertainty related to the statistics. This artlce sets out the importance of conveying uncertainty, and introduces the work of the UK’s Office for Statistics Regulation. The article summarises a short review, undertaken by the Office for Statistics Regulation, of practices by official statistics providers in the United Kingdom. It argues that tthere are two distinct types of uncertainty: specific uncertainty in the statistical estimates themselves; and contextual uncertainty, which lies in the inferences that a user may draw from, and the weight a user may place on, the official statistics. The article then briefly considers the potential relevance of different understandings of cognitive processes. It concludes that the communication of uncertainty is an area of developing practice within official statistics.

Optimizing Sampling Strategies for Estimating Riverine Nutrient Loads in the Yiluo River Watershed, China

Accurately estimating nutrient loads is crucial for effective management and monitoring of aquatic ecosystems. This study evaluated the uncertainty in different sampling frequencies and calculation methods for estimating total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads in the Yiluo River watershed, a tributary of the Yellow River in China. Using daily TN and TP concentration data from 2019 to 2020, we conducted a bootstrapping analysis to evaluate the accuracy of nine different load estimation methods at different sampling frequencies. Our results showed that Method 3 (M_3, constant concentration interpolation) and Method 7 (M_7, flow-weighted concentration method), when used with a biweekly sampling frequency, had the lowest Standard Deviation of the Percentage errors (STD) (7.70% and 8.60% for TN, 12.0% and 18.8% for TP, respectively) and Mean Relative Error (MRE) values (0.078% and −1.60% for TN, 0.305% and 2.33% for TP, respectively) on an annual scale. For monthly TN and TP load estimates, M_7 can control the MRE within ±20% at a biweekly sampling frequency. Furthermore, the uncertainty in TN and TP load estimates was generally larger during the summer months (June–September), emphasizing the important role of storm events in nutrient export. Extreme events (<10% of the time) contributed approximately 50% of the annual nutrient loads. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for optimizing water quality monitoring schemes and management strategies in agricultural watersheds.

Phonon-mediated quantum efficiency measurement in semiconductors

Accurate quantum efficiency measurement not only provides crucial information for the photovoltaic cell industry but also supports experiments aimed at directly detecting dark matter and elastic neutrino interactions. The dark matter direct searches paradigm has recently expanded to include particles with masses below 1,MeV/c2, where the expected signal in an electron–recoil interaction is approximately in the eV range, just above the energy gap for silicon and germanium. A robust calibration method for ionization signals in this lower energy region is essential. This paper presents a method for measuring quantum efficiency and yield (q/E) in semiconductors using phonon-mediated calorimetry. The Neganov–Trofimov–Luke phonon amplification method in low-temperature semiconductor crystals has been employed to indirectly measure ionization down to single-electron accuracy. Specifically, at zero bias, the phonon readout directly quantifies the total energy deposited within the detector, independent of the ionization yield. This eliminates a significant source of systematic uncertainty in quantum efficiency estimates associated with total energy uncertainty. The paper includes results from an updated ionization efficiency measurement in a germanium detector.

Evaluating the utility of multi-gene, multi-disease population-based panel testing accounting for uncertainty in penetrance estimates.

Panel germline testing allows for the efficient detection of deleterious variants for multiple conditions, but the benefits and harms of identifying these variants are not always well understood. We present a multi-gene, multi-disease aggregate utility formula that allows the user to consider adding or removing each gene in a panel based on variant frequency, estimated penetrances, and subjective disutilities for testing positive but not developing the disease and testing negative but developing the disease. We provide credible intervals for utility that reflect uncertainty in penetrance estimates. Rare, highly penetrant deleterious variants tend to contribute positive net utilities for a wide variety of user-specified disutilities, even when accounting for parameter estimation uncertainty. However, the clinical utility of deleterious variants with moderate, uncertain penetrance depends more on assumed disutilities. The decision to include a gene on a panel depends on variant frequency, penetrance, and subjective utilities and should account for uncertainties around these factors.

A multiple criteria Bayesian hierarchical model for analyzing heterogeneous consumer preferences

We introduce a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for consumer preference analysis, addressing two significant challenges in this domain. First, it accommodates preference heterogeneity at both individual and segment levels. This enables actionable insights for targeting and pricing decisions while quantifying uncertainty. Second, it incorporates probabilistic value-based ranking to handle inconsistent and sparse preference data. This way, it mitigates the impact of cognitive biases and alleviates uncertainty in estimates. The proposed method performs robust inference of consumers’ preferences through hierarchical priors, allowing for flexible parameter learning and borrowing statistical strength from well-informed individuals. We demonstrate its practical usefulness by analyzing the real preferences of almost one hundred consumers considering mobile phone contracts. We also report the results of an extensive experimental study. The proposed method outperforms its counterpart, executing an independent estimation and the state-of-the-art approaches regarding predictive accuracy and preference similarity within identified customer groups. The performance improvements are more pronounced with larger sample sizes, smaller sets of items, and in contexts with reduced heterogeneity and increased consistency among consumers.

Incorporating historical flood events in type-based statistics

Flood statistics form the basis of many hydrologic designs. However, short observation periods can lead to a high degree of uncertainty in the quantile estimates, especially for extreme floods. One way to expand the information used in the statistics and, in particular, to include other exceptional floods in the sample is to take historical floods into account. The use of these floods, which are usually reconstructed from chronicles or flood marks, has long been established for classic flood frequency analysis. However, the fact that historical floods can also have different origins and are therefore not statistically identically distributed has so far been ignored. To avoid this violation of the statistical assumptions, we show how historical floods, subdivided according to their genesis, can be taken into account in type-based flood statistics. For this purpose, the classical partial probability weighted moment (PPWM) method is extended for the type-based mixture model of partial duration series (TMPS). The result is compared to a Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to compare the differences between the two methods. Type-based statistics can also be used to attribute the different influences of historical floods on the quantile estimate. An example shows that floods associated with long-lasting precipitation in particular are overestimated in short samples, while heavy rainfall floods are comparatively well represented. The results show that the consideration of historical events in type-based statistics not only allows a more balanced view of extreme floods, but also enables the influences of these to be attributed.

Identifiability investigation of within-host models of acute virus infection.

Uncertainty in parameter estimates from fitting within-host models to empirical data limits the model's ability to uncover mechanisms of infection, disease progression, and to guide pharmaceutical interventions. Understanding the effect of model structure and data availability on model predictions is important for informing model development and experimental design. To address sources of uncertainty in parameter estimation, we use four mathematical models of influenza A infection with increased degrees of biological realism. We test the ability of each model to reveal its parameters in the presence of unlimited data by performing structural identifiability analyses. We then refine the results by predicting practical identifiability of parameters under daily influenza A virus titers alone or together with daily adaptive immune cell data. Using these approaches, we present insight into the sources of uncertainty in parameter estimation and provide guidelines for the types of model assumptions, optimal experimental design, and biological information needed for improved predictions.

Cost-effectiveness of outpatient adherence to recommendations for monitoring of patients hospitalized for heart failure.

A set of indicators to assess the quality of care for patients hospitalized for heart failure was developed by an expert working group of the Italian Health Ministry. Because a better performance profile measured using these indicators does not necessarily translate to better outcomes, a study to validate these indicators through their relationship with measurable clinical outcomes and healthcare costs supported by the Italian National Health System was carried out. Residents of four Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche, Lazio, and Sicily) who were newly hospitalized for heart failure (irrespective of stage and New York Heart Association class) during 2014-2015 entered in the cohort and followed up until 2019. Adherence to evidence-based recommendations [i.e. renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAS) inhibitors, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), and echocardiograms (ECCs)] experienced during the first year after index discharge was assessed. Composite clinical outcomes (cardiovascular hospital admissions and all-cause mortality) and healthcare costs (hospitalizations, drugs, and outpatient services) were assessed during the follow-up. The restricted mean survival time at 5years (denoted as the number of months free from clinical outcomes), the hazard of clinical outcomes (according to the Cox model), and average annual healthcare cost (expressed in euros per person-year) were compared between adherent and non-adherent patients. A non-parametric bootstrap method based on 1000 resamples was used to account for uncertainty in cost-effectiveness estimates. A total of 41406 patients were included in this study (46.3% males, mean age 76.9±9.4years). Adherence to RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, MRAs, and ECCs were 64%, 57%, 62%, and 20% among the cohort members, respectively. Compared with non-adherent patients, those who adhered to ECCs, RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs experienced (i) a delay in the composite outcome of 1.6, 1.9, 1.6, and 0.6months and reduced risks of 9% (95% confidence interval, 2-14%), 11% (7-14%), 8% (5-11%), and 4% (-1-8%), respectively; and (ii) lower (€262, €92, and €571 per year for RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs, respectively) and higher costs (€511 per year for ECC). Adherence to RAS inhibitors, beta-blockers, and MRAs showed a delay in the composite outcome and a saving of costs in 98%, 84%, and 93% of the 1000 bootstrap replications, respectively. Strict monitoring of patients with heart failure through regular clinical examinations and drug therapies should be considered the cornerstone of national guidelines and audits.

Large uncertainty in global estimates of manure phosphorus runoff

The estimation of manure phosphorus loss (MPL) in runoff is crucial for addressing environmental problems linked to nonpoint source pollution. Using a data-driven model, we assessed MPL in 520 major global river basins for the year 2000. Global mean MPL was 1.6 kgP/ha with a median of 0.9 kgP/ha. Hotspots were identified in the basins of South and Southeast Asia, Northwestern Europe, and South America. Importantly, 26% of basin areas showed high uncertainty due to input data, while approximately 43% exhibited low uncertainty. Continental analysis highlighted large uncertainties in Asia and South America, particularly in the Amazon, Ganges, Yangtze, and Nile basins, compared to Europe and the eastern United States. Our findings uncovered substantial uncertainties, even with a simple model, suggesting that more complex models can exacerbate uncertainties and lead to misinterpretations. Thus, there is a need for enhanced data quality and recognition of the conditional nature of model-based estimates.

Uncertainty analysis for forest height inversion using L / P band PolInSAR datasets and RVoG model over kryclan forest site

Forest height, as a measure of the quantity and quality of forest resources, plays a significant role in the study of the ecological functions performed by forests. Although the polarimetric synthetic aperture radar interferometry (PolInSAR) technique has evolved as a potent method for forest height inversion, uncertainties still exist in the process of estimating forest height, and the uncertainties in predicted forest height directly lead into the uncertainty of terrestrial carbon stock calculation results. In this study, we took the Random Volume over Ground (RVoG) model as likelihood function and constructed a hierarchical Bayesian framework to calculate and reduce the uncertainty of forest height inversion using L / P band PolInSAR airborne data via RVoG model. Uncertainties resulted from five canopy types and three forest densities were analyzed, respectively. The results showed that among the five different canopy types, L band has the highest prediction accuracy in pure coniferous canopy with Acc. = 0.90. The uncertainty is extremely low for pure forest, with the ratio of uncertainty values of 0.09 for L band and 0.15 for the P band in pure coniferous canopy, and uncertainty values of 0.16 for L band and 0.11 for P band in pure broadleaf canopy, respectively. Furthermore, when the forest density is between 300 and 600 stems/ha, the ratio of uncertainties for the L band is 0.27, whereas the P band is 0.24. As forest density increases, the uncertainty in forest height estimates decreases for both bands. The changes in canopy types and forest density affect forest height estimation uncertainties obviously, the effects are different at each frequency. The forest height inversion accuracy of the L band in pure coniferous canopy surpasses that in other canopy types, with the lowest uncertainty. P band performed well in broadleaf canopy forest height inversion. The inversion uncertainties at both frequencies decrease with increase of forest densities.

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation.

Current biogeochemical models produce carbon-climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first-order or Michaelis-Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high-quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics-function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

A Method to Assess and Explain Changes in Sub‐Daily Precipitation Return Levels From Convection‐Permitting Simulations

AbstractReliable projections of extreme future precipitation are fundamental for risk management and adaptation strategies. Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve large convective systems and represent sub‐daily extremes more realistically than coarser resolution models, but present short records due to the high computational costs. Here, we evaluate the potential of a non‐asymptotic approach, the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) to provide information on the future change of extreme sub‐daily return levels based on CPM simulations. We focus on a complex‐orography area in the North Eastern Italy and use three 10‐year time periods COSMO‐crCLIM simulations (2.2 km resolution) under RCP8.5 scenario. When compared to a block r‐maxima approach currently used in similar applications, the proposed approach shows reduced uncertainty in rare return level estimates (about 5%–10% smaller confidence interval) and can improve the quantification of future changes from CPM simulations. We evaluate these changes and their statistical significance in return levels for 1–24 hr durations. The changes show an interesting spatial organization associated with orography, with significant positive changes located at high elevations. These positive changes tend to increase with increasing return period and decreasing duration. Because SMEV can separate the roles of event intensity and occurrence, it allows for physical interpretations of these changes. We suggest that non‐asymptotic approaches permit the quantification of change in rare extremes within available CPM runs.

Examining LEGEND-1000 cosmogenic neutron backgrounds in Geant4 and MCNP

For next-generation neutrinoless double beta decay experiments, extremely low backgrounds are necessary. An understanding of in-situ cosmogenic backgrounds is critical to the design effort. In-situ cosmogenic backgrounds impose a depth requirement and especially impact the choice of host laboratory. Often, simulations are used to understand background effects, and these simulations can have large uncertainties. One way to characterize the systematic uncertainties is to compare unalike simulation programs. In this paper, a suite of neutron simulations with identical geometries and starting parameters have been performed with Geant4 and MCNP, using geometries relevant to the LEGEND-1000 experiment. This study is an important step in gauging the uncertainties of simulations-based estimates. To reduce project risks associated with simulation uncertainties, a novel alternative shield of methane-doped liquid argon is considered in this paper for LEGEND-1000, which could achieve large background reduction without requiring significant modification to the baseline design.

Levelized cost of electricity in renewable energy communities: Uncertainty propagation analysis

Renewable Energy Communities (RECs) are being deployed all around the World as a technically feasible solution to decreasing users' dependence on fossil fuels. Several demonstration facilities have shown their potential to provide final consumers with clean energy and all associated environmental benefits. However, the economic evaluation of these systems as a whole set is more complex than evaluating generation technologies individually, which can be considered a barrier, and it may be more complicated to calculate its uncertainty with precision. This paper deals with this challenge and adapts a model for the evaluation of the global Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of a polygeneration microgrid to the characteristics of a typical REC, allowing the assessment of the distribution of the LCOE depending on the uncertainty of the input parameters. Thanks to its simple analytical formulation, the proposed model, that can be used for any combination of technologies (both renewable and conventional), provides relevant information on uncertainty propagation in a symbolic way that avoids the need to run numerical simulations or make assumptions on the distribution of the random input parameters. A case study has been presented, considering a typical small electrical REC with photovoltaic plants and micro wind turbines. Although the model can be defined to any market, as a representative example, it has been evaluated according to the current Spanish and Italian regulations, which are analyzed in depth with reference to the scientific literature. Results show that uncertainties in parameter estimates give rise to a very large scatter in the LCOE, pointing out a set of quantities whose role is crucial for a reliable estimate, among which electricity purchase and selling prices, yearly power load, and self-consumption / virtually-shared energy rates stand out.

Aggregation of activity data on crop management can induce large uncertainties in estimates of regional nitrogen budgets

A complete understanding of the nexus between productivity and sustainability of agricultural production systems calls for a comprehensive assessment of the nitrogen budget (NB). In our study, data from the well-monitored Danish Agricultural Watershed Monitoring Program (LOOP-program; 2013–2019) is used for a quantitative inter-comparison of three different approaches to drive the process-based model LandscapeDNDC on the regional scale. The aim is to assess how assumptions and simplifications about farm management activities at a regional scale induce previously unquantified uncertainties in the simulation of yields and the NB of cropping systems. Our findings reveal that the approach based on detailed field-level management data (A) performs the best in simulation of yield (r2 = 0.93). In contrast, the other two different data aggregation approaches (B: Sequential mono-cropping of six major crops with simulation results averaged according to proportional area, and C: simulation of 20 most frequent crop rotations) have lower correlations to the observed yields (r2 = 0.92 and 0.77, respectively) but are still statistically significant at p < 0.05 level. Notable differences arise between detailed and more aggregated crop system simulations concerning the NB, particularly concerning N losses to the environment. Compared to the detailed approach (A) (gaseous N fluxes: 24.3 kg-N ha−1 year−1; nitrate leaching: 14.7 kg-N ha−1 year−1), the aggregation approach B leads to a 31.4% over-estimation in total gaseous N fluxes (+7.6 kg-N ha−1 year−1), while nitrate leaching shows a similar average with a distinct pattern. Conversely, employing aggregation approach C leads to a 17.6% over-estimation in total gaseous fluxes (+4.3 kg-N ha−1 year−1) and a 204.9% over-estimation in nitrate leaching (+30.2 kg-N ha−1 year−1). These findings suggest that management representation should be chosen carefully because it can induce large uncertainties, especially when simulating large-scale NBs or assessing the environmental impact of cropping management. This may compromise the accuracy of national and international nutrient budgets, and preclude comparisons among different sources when the approaches for management representation differ.

Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error.

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for.

Bayesian Updating for Random Tensile Force Identification of Ancient Tie Rods Using Modal Data

Tie rods play a crucial role in civil engineering, particularly in controlling lateral thrusts in arches and vaults, and enhancing the structural integrity of masonry buildings, both historic and contemporary. Accurately assessing the tensile axial forces in tie rods is challenging due to the limitations of existing methodologies. These methodologies often rely on indirect measurements, computational models, and optimization procedures, resulting in single-point solutions and neglecting both modeling and measurement uncertainties. This study introduces a novel Bayesian updating framework to effectively address these limitations. The framework aims to accurately identify the structural parameters influencing tie rod behavior and estimate uncertainties using natural frequencies as references. A key innovation lies in the mathematical formulation of Bayesian updating, which is founded upon the definition of computational models integrating uncertain updating parameters and latent random variables derived from a rigorous sensitivity analysis aimed at quantifying the impact of the updating parameters on the natural frequencies. Notably, the application of Bayesian updating to the structural identification problem of ancient tie rods represents a significant advancement. The framework provides a comprehensive description of the uncertainties associated with computational models, offering valuable insights for practitioners and researchers alike. Moreover, the results of the sensitivity analysis serve as a valuable tool for setting up inverse problems geared towards accurately identifying tensile axial forces.

How pressure affects costs of power conversion machinery in compressed air energy storage; Part I: Compressors and expanders

This study addresses a critical economic aspect in compressed air energy storage that has not been discussed much in existing literature: the impact of operating pressure on machinery capital cots. It aims to answer whether the cost per unit of power for power conversion systems changes with the maximum storage pressure. Considering that higher storage pressures are associated with greater energy density, enhanced energy storage capabilities and improved system efficiency. This paper helps clarify uncertainties in initial cost estimations for power-generation plants. Effects of operating pressure on the components and overall sizes and consequently costs of power conversion machinery are individually investigated in two parts. Part I encompasses the compressor and expanders, and part II comprehensively discusses the effects of the operating pressure on the costs of heat exchangers. The analysis employs a conceptual engineering approach, revealing that higher intake pressure reduces overall compressor/expander size, leading to cost savings. Additionally, increasing the number of compression stages for higher storage pressures enhances exergy storage cost-effectiveness. To establish an advanced adiabatic CAES plant with a storage pressure of 200 bar instead of 50 bar, there is potential for a 6 % reduction in $/kW expenditure.