Uncertain Future Research Articles

Uncertainty in Forest Fire Management

In forest fire management, uncertainties are inherent. One major challenge for forest fire managers is the uncertainty of whether a fire will start at all, where, when and with what effect. In particular, human negligence and arson are unforeseeable. This research focuses on these uncertainties affecting the preparatory practices of forest fire managers in Brandenburg, Germany, and how they are anticipated and dealt with. Qualitative content analysis of expert interviews and focus group discussions generate in-depth insights into the role of uncertainties in the prevention phase and during the control of the event. Findings shows that uncertainties pose barriers to preparatory action. Coping mechanisms rely on individual sensemaking that are in turn influenced by one’s role, knowledge and experience as well as organizational habits and values. Analysis of German firefighters’ perceptions of and coping with uncertainty shows that practices of imagination help to anticipate uncertain futures and to cope with dynamic, complex disasters.

Can Credibility Overcome Elite Polarization?

Abstract Political scientists Alexander Gazmararian and Dustin Tingley's incisive new book Uncertain Futures: How to Unlock the Climate Impasse contends that credibility is key to unlocking the deadlock over climate policy. They claim that fossil fuel communities have often been skeptical of any transition away from fossil fuels with good reason. In similar situations, policymakers have often failed to follow through on policies meant to mitigate economic dislocation. Drawing on a wealth of quantitative and qualitative evidence from energy-producing communities, including surveys of residents and officials alike, Gazmararian and Tingley find that different policy features that bolster credibility can build support for a transition to clean energy sources. The book provides a much-needed view of the energy transition from the ground-up. Yet the book pays less attention to a principal-agent problem at the heart of the clean energy transition: many of the elected representatives of the communities most affected by the transition don’t acknowledge any need for a transition. What's more, in a highly polarized environment, the impact of policy feedbacks is likely to be muted. Drawing on the experiences of the ACA and Canada's carbon tax, we suggest that even when the policy features that the authors propose are present, support for clean-energy policies may not rise dramatically.

Clinical Islet Xenotransplantation: Development of Isolation Protocol, Anti-Rejection Strategies, and Clinical Outcomes.

Allogeneic islet transplantation has become a standard therapy for unstable type 1 diabetes. However, considering the large number of type 1 diabetic patients, the shortage of donors is a serious issue. To address this issue, clinical islet xenotransplantation is conducted. The first clinical islet xenotransplantation was performed by a Swedish team using fetal pancreatic tissue. Thereafter, clinical trials of islet xenotransplantation were conducted in New Zealand, Russia, Mexico, Argentina, and China using neonatal pig islets. In clinical trials, fetal or neonatal pancreata are used because of the established reliable islet isolation methods. These trials demonstrate the method's safety and efficacy. Currently, the limited number of source animal facilities is a problem in terms of promoting islet xenotransplantation. This limitation is due to the high cost of source animal facilities and the uncertain future of xenotransplantation. In the United States, the first xenogeneic heart transplantation has been performed, which could promote xenotransplantation. In Japan, to enhance xenotransplantation, the 'Medical Porcine Development Association' has been established. We hope that xenogeneic transplantation will become a clinical reality, serving to address the shortage of donors.

Teaching Artificial Intelligence Good Air Traffic Flow Management

Air traffic flow managers are continually faced with the decision of when and how to respond to predictions of future constraints. The promise of artificial intelligence, and specifically reinforcement learning, to provide decision support in this domain stems from the ability to systematically evaluate a sequence of potential actions, or strategy, across a range of uncertain futures. As decision support for human traffic managers, the generated recommendations must embody characteristics of a good management strategy; doing so requires introducing such notions to the algorithm. This paper proposes inducing stability into the strategy by dynamically constraining the design space based on upstream design decisions to promote consistency in the recommendations over time, where two such constraint sets are considered. The paper further evaluates the impact of adding a performance improvement threshold that must be overcome to accept a new strategy recommendation. The combination of search constraints and threshold values is evaluated against the agent’s reward function in addition to measures proposed to capture the stability of the strategy. The results show that the more restrictive set of constraints yields the best performance in terms of strategy stability and is more likely to reduce the delay where implementation of the threshold has a minor impact on overall performance. However, for the highest impact day of 8 June 2018, applying the threshold reverses the performance gains in delay but dramatically improves the stability of the resulting traffic flow management strategy from a flight level perspective, implying a potential tradeoff between delay optimization and flight predictability.

A framework for program wide curriculum transformation

Designing and delivering higher education programs in a global climate of constant change, technological advances and uncertain futures leads to the need for curriculum transformation practices that are innovative and responsive. This paper describes a university-wide approach to developing a framework for program level transformation that is strengths-based, data-informed and design-led. A strengths based approach builds on good practice, creating a space that is positive and forward looking. Data informed practice and the inclusion of data wranglers on the project allowed for conversations about the known, unknowns and desirable directions to take place and inform directions. Design-led practices introduced design thinking principles such a building empathy and co-design with students, alumni and industry. The emergent framework has three key stages: vision, design and build. The vision stage focuses on the program team, its students, industry and desired direction for transformation. The design stage focuses on defining challenges, ideating, co-designing and creating a plan for development. The build stage uses a rapid prototyping and iterative approach to development that incorporates user testing early in the stage. The project has delivered a framework for program level transformation and innovation and has shown that a strengths-based approach that is data informed and engages with students as codesigners has the capacity to unite teams, inform program visions and allow for innovative practices to emerge. Taking a learner experience approach to design also highlighted the value in engaging students and industry in curriculum design from the start of the process rather than simply as end users.

Hedging strategy of Turkey in great power competition

ABSTRACT Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. and its allies have failed to recruit more states from the developing world to join the Western coalition against Russia and China to defend the liberal international order. As a swing state, Turkey is an example of this trend despite being a NATO ally. Turkey has adopted strategic hedging to avoid taking sides in the U.S.-Russia rivalry and it has been engaging both sides to increase the range of strategic options available to it. The ‘return-maximizing’ and ‘risk-contingency’ measures of hedging have allowed Turkey to cope with competing great powers and the systemic uncertainties simultaneously. The article argues that the Turkey’s hedging against an uncertain future has helped it to extract concessions, elevate its status, preserve the country’s strategic autonomy, and provide regime survival for President Erdoğan despite severe economic problems. However, hedging behaviours have weakened alignment strength between Turkey and its Western allies.

Forging Frontline Russians

This article considers efforts by the de facto authorities of non-governmental-controlled areas (NGCAs) of eastern Ukraine to shape regional identity from 2014 through 2021. It focuses on the paradoxes of top-down identity construction in an environment of mixed popular sentiments, fluid borders, and an uncertain political future. It argues that nascent identity construction projects in the NGCAs were often inconsistent and unclear, emphasizing different layers of “candidate Fatherlands,” be it the individual self-declared republics, the Donbas, Novorossiia, the Russian Federation, or a broader Russian civilization. While internally inconsistent and contradictive, however, the various initiatives often took antemurale political myths as a point of departure. These myths spin around the idea that regional inhabitants constitute a particular brand of “frontline Russians”—hardened warriors protecting a western outpost of the Russian civilization. Even as “candidate Fatherlands” came and went, this ideational core manifested not only in policy and aloof declarations, but also in a persistent growth of so-called military-patriotic education in the region. Militarized ideas of political identity became mainstream within the occupied areas—reflecting both influences from Russia and the ongoing war.

Systemic barriers preventing farmer engagement in the agricultural climate transition: a qualitative study

AbstractFarmers and the agricultural sector are facing an uncertain future, due to rapidly changing agricultural policy and a nexus of commercial, environmental and biodiversity challenges brought on by anthropogenic climate change. Balancing the interests of the farming community and natural environment is generating organisational and personal conflict, rather than effective agricultural adaption and a focus on the net zero transition. In this paper, we consider how farmers and the wider farming community can participate in engagement and decision-making for the transition, on their own terms, whilst ensuring social justice for fair and equitable decision-making. We discuss findings from our research project, that used questionnaires and follow up semi-structured interviews with farmers and farming groups to reveal systemic issues that prevent farmers engaging with the climate transition to net zero during their everyday practice. We highlight the structural relationships that form these barriers and frustrate farmers when designing and implementing farm interventions to agricultural systems during times of transition. Farmers have highlighted barriers to be associated with policy, (uncertain government strategy, landowner bias in government policy and tenancy restrictions, government bureaucracy—particularly environment schemes), commercial (market forces—downward pressure from supermarkets on price points, availability of labour due to seasonal migration restrictions, increasing cost of labour) and interpersonal (succession—uncertain future of the family farm due to limited income). This frustrates the ability of farmers to address climate change through farming practices and undermines the implementation of innovative engagement practices, such as co-produced interventions, in policy and decision-making settings.

In a positive light? experiencing Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) and the promise of biosolidarity

ABSTRACT This paper explores Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) as an idiopathic and idiographic phenomenon in a discussion about (low) light and social relations. Tracing a history of unsuccessful biosociality around SAD via archived and contemporary testimony, the paper uses narrative responses from a recent qualitative survey to explore how and why winter depression might be a difficult experience around which to form community. With brief reflections on a series of public workshops led by the research team in Scotland, we suggest that social and cultural geographies of creative practice are one vehicle for fostering new kinds of environmental biosolidarities, arguably rendered essential in the face of uncertain climatic futures that threaten increasingly disruptive light-mental health relations. More broadly, we discuss our contributions to human geographies of light-dark relations, SAD and biosociality. We conclude the paper with a call for more nuanced account of social, cultural, and emotional geographies of environmental illness.

Managing protracted displacement: How anchoring shapes ‘agency-in-waiting’ among middle-class Ukrainian female refugees in Berlin

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in Europe since World War II. A significant number of Ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children, have sought asylum in Germany, where they have been granted temporary protection status. These refugees found themselves in a state of protracted displacement, with uncertain futures. This article examines how middle-class Ukrainian women, with children, envision their futures and how this shapes their present. Engaging with the literature on protracted displacement and the concept of ‘agency-in-waiting’, we examine how this relatively privileged group variously respond to living in transit. To enable closer analysis of these variations, we extend examinations of protracted displacement with Grzymala-Kazlowska’s idea of anchors. This allows us to consider how previous social-class positioning, and also other external and internal structures in places migrated to, intersect to reveal the anchors facilitating or constraining ‘agency-in-waiting’.

Who Feels Safe? Uncertain Futures and Enduring Aspirations in Italy

ABSTRACT In an attempt of going beyond a simple opposition between those conceived as agents and those seen as subjects of disciplinary power, this article engages with a reflection on differential states of precariousness and (un)safety, which involve both ‘forced migrants’ and ‘citizens’. Drawing on ethnographic research in Milan (Italy), I outline some recent institutional changes in the Italian asylum system, which led to the political abandonment of refugees in situations of increasing marginalisation, but also to the layoff of several frontline asylum workers, who were often young people hit by the consequences of economic recession. Through the words and biographical trajectories of three young women (two asylum workers and one refugee), I trace the emergence of contested temporal and work experiences, marked by widespread feelings of uncertainty and devaluation. I approach empirically the idea of (un)safety as a material and bodily condition and as an emotional state, directly linked to the perceived possibility of being able to orient oneself towards the future. By zooming in on differential experiences of (un)safety and precariousness – but also on enduring aspirations – I aim at documenting the material and affective entanglements of acts of government, as well as their inherent potential for empowerment and transformation.

Abstract PO2-10-02: 'Sharing Our Own Experience': A Qualitative Study of Black Women Diagnosed with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Abstract Introduction: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer that is disproportionately prevalent among U.S. Black women. Black women diagnosed with TNBC are less likely to receive the primary treatment options for TNBC, and more likely to die from the disease compared to white patients with the same diagnosis. Given TNBC’s impact on Black women, there is an urgent need to better understand their needs for information and support and any unique barriers to care they may face. Thus, this study explored the perspectives, needs, and lived experiences of Black women diagnosed with TNBC. Methods: Our study was guided by the transformative paradigm and used a multi-method approach. Study-eligible participants self-identified as: a) Black or African American; b) 18 years or older; c) being diagnosed with TNBC within the previous 5-7 years; d) receiving TNBC treatment in the U.S.; and e) English-speaking. From August-October 2022, SHARE Cancer Support (a national nonprofit focused on cancer) and 15 partner organizations used social media and listservs to recruit potential participants from their constituencies to complete a quantitative survey (n=49). From the survey participants, a stratified, purposeful sample of 20 Black women diagnosed with TNBC completed in-depth interviews from November 2022-February 2023. Two Black women researchers conducted virtual interviews with the participants via Zoom. The research team performed thematic analysis on the professionally transcribed data using NVivo 12. A Black Feminist lens was used to analyze codes and interpret emerging themes present across the interviews. The University of South Carolina's Institutional Review Board approved this study. Results: About half of those interviewed were between 35 and 44 years old, had a bachelor's degree or higher, and their annual household income ranged from less than $25,000 to $175,000. Eight major themes emerged from the personal stories of Black women diagnosed with TNBC. From diagnosis to survivorship, Black women discussed the importance of advocacy, including self-advocacy, others advocating on their behalf, and being motivated to become an advocate for others. The participants shared the significance of their identity as Black women and desired that cancer care team members acknowledge their identity and subsequently culturally tailor their care needs. Some participants also noted instances of racism and discrimination that occurred during their TNBC diagnosis or treatment experience. Participants overwhelmingly stressed the vital nature of having “someone who looks like me” to inform them about treatment options and existing resources, as well as to provide emotional support through their shared lived experiences with TNBC. Additionally, participants recognized the importance of embracing the uncertain yet inevitable future. They also emphasized that mental health support is not uniformly provided in care settings but should be an essential component of the TNBC treatment plan. Having support was essential to all the women, but they noted that support can look different for everyone and many existing support resources need to be improved. The themes were adapted into a list of recommended action steps for support organizations, clinical care team members, and TNBC patients to help improve the quality of life for Black women diagnosed with TNBC. Conclusions: The lived experiences of Black women diagnosed with TNBC can serve as a meaningful source of data and provide solutions to addressing persistent health disparities these women face. Findings from this study can inform future research and clinical practice about how to support the holistic needs of Black women diagnosed with TNBC. Recommendations for improving the quality of life for Black women diagnosed with triple-negative breast cancer. The 8 major themes that emerged in the qualitative study were adapted into a list of actionable recommendations for key interest groups to improve the lives of Black women diagnosed with triple-negative breast cancer. Citation Format: Tisha Felder, Lucy Ingram, Megan Austin, Victoria Burke, Stephanie Poland, Megan-Claire Chase, Christine Benjamin. 'Sharing Our Own Experience': A Qualitative Study of Black Women Diagnosed with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-10-02.

A ‘greenhouse affect’? Exploring young Australians’ emotional responses to climate change

Recent studies reveal that young people are experiencing a range of emotions relating to climate change, including anxiety, anger and a sense of powerlessness. Young people have also voiced distrust in governments for failing to adequately address climate change, which they see as a critical threat to their future. However, there is limited research considering the interplay between young people’s emotions about climate change and the broader social context in which they live; social-ecological theory can assist in identifying important systemic factors influencing emotional responses to climate change. In this qualitative research project, I drew upon a social-ecological theoretical framework to explore the affective dimensions of climate change as experienced by young Australians aged 18–24 (N = 14). A primary, overarching finding was of climate change as a multidimensional emotional challenge for young people, with four sub-themes that describe key experiences through which it manifests: a fragmented climate education; disillusionment with politics, but hope for change; reckoning with uncertain futures; and grappling with agency. The findings contribute to the growing literature on climate-related emotions, highlighting experiences of interrelated emotions that resist being reduced to one label (e.g., ‘eco-anxiety’). Accordingly, I discuss a ‘greenhouse affect’ to convey the affective quandary provoked by climate change, expanding upon established anxiety-centred concepts. I also discuss implications for educating young Australians about climate change, and how this might improve their sense of agency to meaningfully contribute to climate solutions.

Drought intensification in Brazilian catchments: implications for water and land management

Droughts exert widespread impacts on both natural and social systems, and there is accumulating evidence that this situation may worsen in the context of global warming. Despite the importance of assessing changes in droughts to understand their potential future impacts on society, studies are unevenly distributed worldwide. In this study, utilizing bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations and a standard precipitation-evaporation index based approach, we quantified expected changes in future drought properties across 735 Brazilian catchments under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Beyond evaluating the statistical properties of future droughts, we assessed their occurrence under both land use and water demand perspectives and propose a new framework to better understand their link with changes in long- and short-term conditions of precipitation ( P ) and potential evapotranspiration ( PET ). Our results indicate that drought events are projected to become more frequent and severe in the future, with high CMIP6 model agreement. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, at least half of Brazilian cropland and pasture areas will experience an increase of over 30% in drought properties by the end of the century. Furthermore, among the 85% of catchments expected to experience more severe droughts, nearly 90% are also projected to exhibit increased water demand, which will likely exacerbate future water scarcity. The investigation of the relationship between droughts changes and climate variables suggests that catchments with augmented droughts in the future will likely exhibit increased long-term average PET and P -variability, but not necessarily long-term average P . For instance, over 50% of evaluated Brazilian catchments are expected to experience an intensification of drought properties even with increases in Pmean . We believe this study may contribute (a) to improve Brazilian water resiliency by helping achieve the objectives of the National Water Security Plan and (b) to deepen our understanding of droughts in an uncertain future.

Uncertain futures: Memory, performance and temporality among Syrian Sufis

ABSTRACT This article analyzes how two Sufi communities in Aleppo which were deeply impacted by revolution and war in Syria were able to recreate themselves in new contexts, producing new temporalities and orientations towards the future in this process. The members of the Zawiya al-Hilaliyya used their ritual performances to recreate continuity between past and present, and to restore their capacity to anticipate to the future. The members of the Zawiya of shaykh Aminu who were scattered in exile across different countries had in the dreams and visions of their deceased shaykh a mythical temporality in which an unlikely future of return to Aleppo could be experienced in an oneiric present. The mobilizations of memory by the members of these communities create specific temporalities in which are conjured futures that are imagined, hoped and anticipated both for them and for Syria.

Importance of cyber protection in the power grid in the face of an uncertain future

In the digital era, cybersecurity is transforming the behavior of human beings in the correct use of technology, which is why it has become a critical element in business strategy, thus giving rise to the present research, which identified the current situation of associated companies in the process of generation, transmission, distribution and public lighting of electricity in Costa Rica, in the field of cybersecurity, with special emphasis on the identification, analysis and evaluation of policies, standards, procedures, controls, regulations and infrastructure in the sector. The study approach was quantitative, descriptive, and exploratory; based on a sample of experts in information security, where a survey was used for data collection. In the findings obtained, the existence of personnel with the technical knowledge to deal with a computer incident was observed, but from the business perspective, the lack of an institutional guideline and country strategy for the protection of the electrical network was recognized. In conclusion, there is a latent risk in the infrastructure of the national power grid, which is evidenced by the lack of a clear national strategy that establishes a roadmap to protect the sector against a possible cyber-attack.

MARAKNYA ANGKATAN KERJA KONTRAK MENGAKIBATKAN KURANG NYA KESEJAHTERAAN HIDUP PARA PEKERJA

This research aims to determine the welfare of the contract workforce which is different from the welfare of the permanent workforce, which includes wages, severance pay and working time. The workforce has an important role for Indonesia's economic progress. The research method used is the literature review method, which was obtained from journals related to the topic and already published. The results of this research show that there are still many workers who do not receive their rights as workers in accordance with the Employment Law. The company also ignores the rights that contract workers should have. The workforce is obliged to think about their future, as a result of this contract workforce they can experience an uncertain future, sudden layoffs. So, the government is advised to review the Employment Law. The conclusion is that contract labor is not always associated with negative impacts, but if the company can work together with the workforce, it will achieve the welfare of life that the workforce wants to achieve.

Using Financial Contracts to Facilitate Informal Leases Within a Western United States Water Market Based on Prior Appropriation

AbstractThe ability to reallocate water to higher‐value uses during drought is an increasingly important “soft‐path” tool for managing water resources in an uncertain future. In most of the Western United States, state‐level water market institutions that enable reallocation also impose substantial transaction costs on market participants related to regulatory approval and litigation. These transaction costs can be prohibitive for many participants in terms of both costs and lengthy approval periods, limiting transfers and reducing allocation efficiency, particularly during drought crises periods. This manuscript describes a mechanism to reduce transaction costs by adapting an existing form of informal leases to facilitate quicker and less expensive transfers among market participants. Instead of navigating the formal approval process to lease a water right, informal leases are financial contracts for conservation that enable more junior holders of existing rights to divert water during drought, thereby allowing the formal transfer approval process to be bypassed. The informal leasing approach is tested in the Upper Colorado River Basin, where drought and institutional barriers to transfers lead to frequent shortages for urban rights holders along Colorado's Front Range. Informal leases are facilitated via option contracts that include adaptive triggers and that define volumes of additional, compensatory, releases designed to mitigate impacts to instream flows and third parties. Results suggest that more rapid reallocation of water via informal leases could have resulted in up to $222 million in additional benefits for urban rights holders during the historical period 1950–2013.

Transition obstructionism and ‘embodied energy injustice:’ a Wyoming case study

ABSTRACT Wyoming is the epicentre of the coal transition in the United States. The coal industry is critical to the state’s economy, both in terms of jobs and a state revenue model dependent on federal coal leasing payments, mineral royalties, and mining severance taxes. However, due to economic, regulatory, and political pressures, the U.S. is currently on track to retire half of its coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2026. Accordingly, Wyoming faces an uncertain future. Despite the difficult path ahead, many Wyoming policymakers, industry officials, and residents express hostility toward the idea of transition. This often manifests in opposition to renewable energy through policies that double down on investments in fossil fuel energy, despite the increased availability of federal resources and programmes to ease the burden of change. I refer to this phenomenon as transition obstructionism. While transition obstructionism is detrimental to residents across the state, harm is also distributed downstream in the fossil fuel lifecycle, particularly in historically marginalised communities. This article reviews recent efforts by state lawmakers and institutions to actively disincentivize transition and prolong the fossil fuel economy in Wyoming. It then considers how transition obstructionism contributes to ‘embodied energy injustices’ both within and beyond Wyoming.

Cervical cancer prevention by vaccination: review.

Routine use of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines is recommended in adolescents under 15 years of age worldwide. Still, effective programs remain suboptimal for several factors, making the WHO strategy to eradicate cervical cancer public health with an uncertain future. To review the literature on the effectiveness, long-term protection, and safety of HPV vaccination programs and vaccination as adjuvant management. This review aims to describe the current state of vaccination programs and demonstrate the long-term protection and safety of vaccines implemented worldwide targeting adolescent girls, with the most recent published evidence of the three prophylactic HPV vaccines - bivalent (bHPV), quadrivalent (qHPV), and nonavalent (nHPV)-. We mainly focus on publications evaluating efficacy, dosing schemes, and HPV vaccination, as well as studies contributing to the mounting evidence for the real-life effectiveness of prophylactic HPV vaccines from several countries. Human Papillomavirus vaccination programs have made remarkable strides in preventing HPV-related diseases; countries with robust vaccination efforts have witnessed substantial reductions in HPV-related diseases with a decline in high-grade cervical abnormalities and genital warts (54%-83%). However, global coverage remains uneven, with disparities between high-income (HICs) and low-income countries (LMICs). The long-term efficacy of the available human papillomavirus (HPV) goes up to 9.4 years and continues to be immunogenic and well tolerated with an excellent safety profile. As these are crucial topics in HPV vaccination, it is essential to establish systems for continued monitoring of vaccine immunogenicity, efficacy, and safety over time.