Hedging strategy of Turkey in great power competition

Abstract

ABSTRACT Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. and its allies have failed to recruit more states from the developing world to join the Western coalition against Russia and China to defend the liberal international order. As a swing state, Turkey is an example of this trend despite being a NATO ally. Turkey has adopted strategic hedging to avoid taking sides in the U.S.-Russia rivalry and it has been engaging both sides to increase the range of strategic options available to it. The ‘return-maximizing’ and ‘risk-contingency’ measures of hedging have allowed Turkey to cope with competing great powers and the systemic uncertainties simultaneously. The article argues that the Turkey’s hedging against an uncertain future has helped it to extract concessions, elevate its status, preserve the country’s strategic autonomy, and provide regime survival for President Erdoğan despite severe economic problems. However, hedging behaviours have weakened alignment strength between Turkey and its Western allies.