Unascertained Measure Research Articles

Resilience Measurement and Enhancement of Subway Station Flood Disasters Based on Uncertainty Theory

To address the uncertainty of influencing factors in measuring the resilience of subway stations to flood disasters, this study introduces Unascertained Measurement Theory to assess the resilience of subway stations against flood disasters. Initially, the research involves a thorough examination and analysis of past subway flood disaster incidents, which elucidates the disaster system and its resilience processes, thereby facilitating the construction of a resilience analysis framework specific to subway stations. Subsequently, a measurement index system is developed to evaluate the resilience of subway stations against flood disasters, drawing upon relevant literature, and resilience levels are categorized according to established standards. Following this, an unascertained measurement model is formulated to assess the resilience of subway stations in the face of flood disasters. This model incorporates the development of an unascertained measurement function and an unascertained measurement matrix, yielding comprehensive results that inform the determination of resilience levels through credible degree assessment. Furthermore, the SPSSAU obstacle degree model is utilized to analyze the resistance factors that influence the resilience of subway stations to flood disasters, leading to the formulation of strategies aimed at enhancing this resilience. This approach offers novel insights into the measurement of subway station resilience in the context of flood disasters.

A Finite Element Analysis-Unascertained Measure Theory-Based Hybrid Approach to Safety Assessment for Pipelines Subject to Landslide Disasters

Abstract Pipeline safety faces a prevalent threat in mountainous areas due to landslides. The advent of landslides introduces the risk of pipeline leaks or ruptures, posing a significant threat to the environment, with the potential for casualties. Throughout the occurrence of landslides, uncertainties abound, yet few studies have addressed the incorporation of uncertainties in assessing pipeline safety. This work proposes a novel hybrid approach to the safety assessment for pipelines under landslides. The use of finite element analysis (FEA) models the pipeline under the action of landslides. The numerical outcomes, combined with unascertained measure theory (UMT), develop a multi-indicator unascertained measure (UM) matrix. Random forest (RF) algorithm is employed to determine the weight of indicators in the matrix. The hybrid application of set pair theory and the UM evaluation vector finally determine the pipeline safety degree and level. The proposed methodology has been well-validated through a case study on an in-service pipeline. The results indicate that the case pipeline safety degree is 2.777, 2.132, 3.132, 3.904, and 2.240, respectively. The corresponding safety level is III, II, III, IV, and II, respectively, which is consistent with the pipeline's actual condition. Different from the conventional safety assessment approach, the proposed methodology demonstrates the enhanced effectiveness, facilitating a more precise evaluation of the pipeline's safety condition.

A comprehensive risk assessment method for hot work in underground mines based on G1-EWM and unascertained measure theory

A risk assessment method for hot work based on G1-EWM and unascertained measurement theory was proposed to prevent hot work accidents in underground mines. Firstly, based on the risk influencing factors and classification criteria for underground hot work operations in mines, a single indicator measurement matrix was constructed using unascertained measurement theory; Secondly, a risk assessment index system for mine underground hot work operations was established. The combination weight coefficient of each index was determined using the order relationship analysis method (G1) and entropy weight method (EWM) and coupled with the single index measurement evaluation vector to calculate the multi-index comprehensive evaluation vector of the evaluation object; Finally, the model was validated and examined using engineering examples, and the evaluation level was determined using confidence identification criteria. The results showed that the proposed method, when used to evaluate the risk of hot work operations in tunnels and vertical shafts in metal mines, produces risk levels that are in line with reality III (Moderate Risk) for the vertical shaft and IV (High Risk) for the tunnels. The evaluation model results are consistent with the risk evaluation results the whole process of on-site hot work, which verifies the model feasibility. A unique strategy and method for risk management in hot work operations in underground mines is provided by the combination of weighting and unascertained measure models, which has theoretical and practical value. Future research could focus on refineing this model by exploring the applicability in diverse mining environments and integrating advanced analytical techniques to enhance the predictive accuracy and operational efficiency.

Integrated Waterflooding Effect Evaluation Methodology for Carbonate Fractured–Vuggy Reservoirs Based on the Unascertained Measure–Mahalanobis Distance Theory

The waterflooding effect evaluation of carbonate fractured–vuggy reservoirs constitutes a comprehensive multiple-information decision-making process involving quantitative unascertained measure theory. This paper establishes a novel comprehensive methodology to evaluate the waterflooding effects of carbonate fractured–vuggy reservoirs for the first time. A new evaluation grading criteria is proposed using the Mahalanobis distance method based on the multi-index comprehensive unascertained measure theory derived from a modified five-scale analytical hierarchy process–entropy weight method. The actual field data from the carbonate fractured–vuggy reservoirs and the nine evaluation indices are specifically applied to demonstrate the calculation process for the construction of the grading system model on the waterflooding effects and to verify the accuracy of the Mahalanobis distance method by comparing the calculation results with the Minkowski and Euclidean distance methods. The proposed methodology facilitates the effective evaluation of the waterflooding strategies implemented in carbonate fractured–vuggy reservoirs with three categories; the ones with outstanding performance usually demonstrated favorable index characteristics, with substantial contributions to the enhanced oil recovery, manifesting with complete well patterns, a balance in the injection–production dynamics, excellent waterflooding utilization, and control competence. In contrast, fractured–vuggy units with fair waterflooding performance revealed limitations in the enhanced oil recovery. It can also be inferred that the mediocre waterflooding performance of the fractured–vuggy units is associated with incomplete well patterns, an imbalance in the injection–production dynamics, low waterflooding utilization, and a negligible waterflooding effect. The results in this study show that this newly proposed integrated model can effectively assess the waterflooding effects quantitatively and provide a more precise scientific basis for evaluating the waterflooding effects in carbonate fractured–vuggy reservoirs, with potential applicability in other fields.

Retracted: Safety Risk Evaluation of Construction Site Based on Unascertained Measure and Analytic Hierarchy Process

Retracted: Safety Risk Evaluation of Construction Site Based on Unascertained Measure and Analytic Hierarchy Process

Leakage Risk Assessment of Urban Water Distribution Network Based on Unascertained Measure Theory and Game Theory Weighting Method

Assessing the risk of water leakage within urban water distribution networks (UWDN) is crucial prior to implementing any control measures. Conducting a risk assessment facilitates the development of effective water leakage management plans. By comprehensively analyzing the probability and loss factors that contribute to the risk of leakage in UWDN, this paper presents an evaluation index system for pipeline leakage risk. This index system utilized both quantitative and qualitative data on influencing factors derived from an actual pipeline network. In order to determine the precise level of pipeline leakage risk, an index theory-based pipeline leakage risk evaluation model was established. This model consisted of a single-index measure function and a multi-index comprehensive measure vector. The combined weight of evaluation indices through game theory was used to determine the weight of each index, thereby minimizing the negative effects of a single weight determination method. A risk assessment model that evaluated the leakage risk of specific pipelines was constructed based on actual data from the water distribution network in a certain area of China. The analysis showed that the risk of pipeline leakage in this area was mainly classified as a third-level risk, which is consistent with the actual evaluation results obtained from field visits.

Decision-making study on risk evaluation of earth and rock dams based on ANP unascertained measurement theory

Decision-making study on risk evaluation of earth and rock dams based on ANP unascertained measurement theory

Improved unascertained measure model for risk evaluation of collapse in highway tunnels

Improved unascertained measure model for risk evaluation of collapse in highway tunnels

Rockburst prediction based on optimization of unascertained measure theory with normal cloud

Rockburst is one of the common geological disasters in deep underground areas with high stress. Rockburst prediction is an important measure to know in advance the risk of rockburst hazards to take a scientific approach to the response. In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty between quantitative indexes and qualitative grade assessments in prediction, this study proposes the use of a normal cloud model to optimize the theory of unascertained measures (NC-UM). The uniaxial compressive strength (σc), stress coefficient (σθ/σc), elastic deformation energy index (Wet), and brittleness index of rock (σc/σt) are selected as the index of prediction. After data screening, 249 groups of rockburst case data are selected as the original data set. To reduce the influence of subjective and objective factors of index weight on the prediction results, the game theory is used to synthesize the three weighting methods of Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC), Entropy Weight (EW), and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to obtain the comprehensive weight of the index. After validating the model with example data, the results showed that the model was 93.3% accurate with no more than one level of prediction deviation. Compared with the traditional unascertained measure (UM) rockburst prediction model, the accuracy is 15–20% higher than that of the traditional model. It shows that the model is valid and applicable in predicting the rockburst propensity level.

A Novel Method for Predicting Rockburst Intensity Based on an Improved Unascertained Measurement and an Improved Game Theory

A rockburst is a dynamic disaster that may result in considerable damage to mines and pose a threat to personnel safety. Accurately predicting rockburst intensity is critical for ensuring mine safety and reducing economic losses. First, based on the primary parameters that impact rockburst occurrence, the uniaxial compressive strength (σc), shear–compression ratio (σθ/σc), compression–tension ratio (σc/σt), elastic deformation coefficient (Wet), and integrity coefficient of the rock (KV) were selected as the evaluation indicators. Second, an improved game theory weighting method was introduced to address the problem that the combination coefficients calculated using the traditional game theory weighting method may result in negative values. The combination of indicator weights obtained using the analytic hierarchy process, the entropy method, and the coefficient of variation method were also optimized using improved game theory. Third, to address the problem of subjectivity in the traditional unascertained measurement using the confidence identification criterion, the distance discrimination idea of the Minkowski distance was used to optimize the identification criteria of the attributes in an unascertained measurement and was applied to rockburst prediction, and the obtained results were compared with the original confidence identification criterion and the original distance discrimination. The results show that the improved game theory weighting method used in this model makes the weight distribution more reasonable and reliable, which can provide a feasible reference for the weight determination method of rockburst prediction. When the Minkowski distance formula was introduced into the unascertained measurement for distance discrimination, the same rockburst predictions were obtained when the distance parameter (p) was equal to 1, 2, 3, and 4. The improved model was used to predict and analyze 40 groups of rockburst data with an accuracy of 92.5% and could determine the rockburst intensity class intuitively, providing a new way to analyze the rockburst intensity class rationally and quickly.

An Improved Unascertained Measure-Set Pair Analysis Model Based on Fuzzy AHP and Entropy for Landslide Susceptibility Zonation Mapping

Landslides are one of the most destructive and common geological disasters in the Tonglvshan mining area, which seriously threatens the safety of surrounding residents and the Tonglvshan ancient copper mine site. Therefore, to effectively reduce the landslide risk and protect the safety of the Tonglvshan ancient copper mine site, it is necessary to carry out a systematic assessment of the landslide susceptibility in the study area. Combining the unascertained measure (UM) theory, the dynamic comprehensive weighting (DCW) method based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-entropy weight method and the set pair analysis (SPA) theory, an improved UM-SPA coupling model for landslide susceptibility assessment is proposed in this study. First, a hierarchical evaluation index system including 10 landslide conditioning factors is constructed. Then, the dynamic comprehensive weighting method based on the fuzzy AHP-entropy weight method is used to assign independent comprehensive weights to each evaluation unit. Finally, we optimize the credible degree recognition criteria of UM theory by introducing SPA theory to quantitatively determine the landslide susceptibility level. The results show that the improved UM-SPA model can produce landslide susceptibility zoning maps with high reliability. The whole study area is divided into five susceptibility levels. 5.8% and 10.16% of the Tonglvshan mining area are divided into extremely high susceptibility areas and high susceptibility areas, respectively. The low and extremely low susceptibility areas account for 30.87% and 34.14% of the total area of the study area, respectively. Comparison with the AHP and Entropy-FAHP models indicates that the improved UM-SPA model (AUC = 0.777) shows a better performance than the Entropy-FAHP models (AUC = 0.764) and the conventional AHP (AUC = 0.698). Therefore, these results can provide reference for emergency planning, disaster reduction and prevention decision-making in the Tonglvshan mining area.

Sustainability assessment of rural toilet technology based on the unascertained measure theory

Upgrading toilets in rural areas is an effective way to protect public health and reduce environmental pollution. Although there are studies on rural toilets, the sustainable performance of rural toilets in developing areas is considerably less understood. The study aims to build a sustainability assessment model of rural toilet technology to support the local government in upgrading rural toilets. The unascertained measure theory is integrated into the model to quantify the sustainability performance of rural toilet technology in three dimensions: economy, service and management, and environment. A case study of Honghai Village, Inner Mongolia, China, is conducted to verify the reliability of the sustainability assessment model. The results indicate that the sustainability performance of the three-compartment septic tank toilet technology is good in Honghai Village. The results are consistent with the situation of the three-compartment septic tank toilets in the village, which verifies the model’s validity. This study can help local government significantly upgrade rural toilets and improve the living standards of rural residents.

Microseismic Dynamic Response and Multi-Source Warning during Rockburst Monitoring Based on Weight Decision Analysis

To prevent rockburst disasters and improve the accuracy of warnings for rockburst, based on the microseismic data of the 1366 working face of Hengda Coal Mine collected by the microseismic monitoring system, Fourier transform, wavelet packet transform, and Hilbert-Huang transform analysis methods are used for time-frequency domain joint analysis. The time-frequency differences of the main frequency, amplitude, frequency band percentage, and instantaneous energy of the high-energy microseismic event and the events before high-energy microseismic event are obtained. The analysis shows that the high-energy event has obvious low frequency characteristics, and when the high-energy event occurs, the instantaneous energy shows an obvious "inverted V" trend. At the same time, it is found that the acoustoelectric indexes show a trend of "rising" or "inverted V" when the high-energy event occurs. On this basis, the unascertained measure comprehensive evaluation model of rock burst hazard is established by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on the analysis of microseismic data and the acoustoelectric index of the 1366 working face in Hengda coal mine, it is of great significance to determine the warning indicators for rockburst, improve the accuracy of uncertainty quantitative analysis for rockburst, and improve the discrimination accuracy of rockburst risk.

Spatial evaluation of groundwater quality based on toxicological indexes and their effects on ecology and human health

Groundwater quality is affected by numerous uncertain factors, and the evaluation process is liable to randomness and fuzziness. In order to evaluate the groundwater quality effectively and know its potential risks to ecology and human health. Taking 87 wells and 174 groundwater samples during wet and dry seasons in Mihe-Weihe River Basin as the research object, samples were collected randomly in the field and sent to the laboratory for instrument testing. Four toxicological indexes (NO2−, NO3−, F−, As) were selected, and a multi-attribute decision-making model was proposed with three dimensions. First, a subjective method based on T-spherical fuzzy theory coupling with TOPSIS and an objective method based on rough set theory were adopted to calculate weights, both of which are recombined by game theory. On this basis, the single-index unascertained measurement function was adopted to classify water quality in two dimensions. Moreover, for the vertical direction, a model based on the VIKOR method was built. Consequently, a three-dimensional water quality index (TWQI) was used to assess the water quality level in three dimensions. The results show that the groundwater quality is classified as medium (classification Ⅲ) in the Mihe-Weihe River Basin, and samples with poor water quality (classification Ⅳ) are mainly distributed downstream of the Mihe River, with groundwater depth ranging from 0 to 15 m, near Laizhou Bay. Ecological and health risk assessment (EHRA) shows that the potential risks to ecology and human health are classified as high, with nitrates and nitrites being the major contributors. Moreover, the risk in the wet season is greater than that in the dry season. This highlights an urgent need to improve groundwater quality in the Mihe-Weihe River Basin, to reduce the potential risks to ecology and human health caused by groundwater pollution.

Evaluation of Regional Water Environmental Carrying Capacity and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors Based on UMT Model

In order to promote the sustainable development of a social economy and ecology, the social–economic–natural compound ecosystem (SENCE) conceptual framework was used to construct the water environmental carrying capacity index system. Taking the Gansu section of the Yellow River basin as an example, 18 indexes were selected from the 3 subsystems of social, economic, and natural ecology. Based on the unascertained measure theory and the obstacle factor model, the comprehensive level of water environmental carrying capacity in the Gansu section of the Yellow River basin from 2015 to 2020 was empirically evaluated, and the obstacles that hindered the water environmental carrying capacity were identified and analyzed. The results showed that the comprehensive level of water environmental carrying capacity fluctuated and increased overall, and it was grade III (critical load) from 2015 to 2017 and in 2019 and grade IV (weak load) in 2018 and 2020. Considering the ranking of the obstacle degree of each index, the obstacle factors were concentrated in the natural ecological subsystem, among which the obstacle factors were the discharge of wastewater, the population density, the urbanization rate, and the water resources development and utilization rate, which should be examined in the future. The research results and methods described in this paper could provide a theoretical reference for the evaluation of water environmental carrying capacity for other rivers and lakes.

Developing an evaluation model based on unascertained measurement for evaluation of tunnel squeezing

Tunnel squeezing brought great difficulties to the construction and severely threatened the safety of on-site operators. The researches regarding large deformation evaluation have been widely developed, but actual conditions of tunnels are considerably complex, producing a large variety of uncertainty information existing in the evaluation process. Therefore, we constructed an unascertained measurement model incorporating four membership functions for evaluation of tunnel squeezing based on the collected datasets. Simultaneously, information entropy was introduced to objectively calculate the index importance for each index. For the first group data (GPI), the accuracy associated with four membership functions are 100%, 83.33%, 50%, and 83.33%, respectively, while the accuracy of GPII are 70%、77.5%、67.5%, and 70%, respectively. Linear function and parabolic function show better performance on uncertainty information interpretation according to the classification results. The results revealed that the uncertainty model constructed in this study can enrich the available uncertainty evaluation system.

A new method of bid evaluation for renovation projects: Based on unascertained measure theory and entropy weight

To determine the winning bidder of renovation projects scientifically and reasonably, this paper constructs a bid evaluation model for renovation projects based on unascertained measure theory and the entropy weight method. According to the classification criteria of each index, a single-index unascertained measure function is constructed, and the unascertained measure of each index is calculated. The index weight is determined by the entropy weight method, the bid evaluation grade is determined by credible degree recognition criteria, superiority ranking is carried out, and the optimal result is obtained. Finally, an actual case study is used to verify the validity and practicability of the model. This case study shows that the model is an organic combination of the entropy weight method and unascertained measure theory and can provide a new idea for bid evaluation of renovation projects.

Risk Monitoring Level of Stope Slopes and Landslides in High-Altitude and Cold Mines

To study the landslide risk of high-altitude and cold stope slopes, the slope deformation index and landslide risk standards at home and abroad for many years were analyzed and summarized. Using the unascertained measurement model, combined with the analytic hierarchy process, using the Dongbang slope of the Beizhan Iron Mine in Hejing County, Xinjiang, as the research object, the detailed geological data of the slope were obtained, and nine factors affecting the landslide risk of the slope were analyzed. When calculating the weight of each factor, the actual situation of the slope was used as the standard, and the weight of each factor was determined by the analytic hierarchy process. Then, the undetermined measurement matrix of the slope was determined by the statistical method combined with the expert scoring results. Finally, an unconfirmed measurement model for landslide risk grade evaluation of the Dongbang slope of the Beizhan Iron Mine was formed, and the landslide risk monitoring grade evaluation was carried out on the slope in the cold area. The results show that the landslide risk monitoring level of the Dongbang slope in Beizhan Iron Mine is grade II, which indicates that there is a possibility of mild landslide risk for the slope in this cold area. The research results can provide a reference for the risk level and risk assessment of high-altitude alpine slopes.

Evaluation of Water Inrush Risk in Deep Mines Based on Variable Weight and Unascertained Measure Theories and GIS

Water inrush is a serious geological disaster in deep coal mining and rock engineering in China. The occurrence of water inrush is affected by the interaction of many controlling factors in underground reservoir areas. In order to improve the accuracy of water inrush risk evaluation, the changes in index weights due to the change in influencing factors and the uncertain factors should be both considered. In this study, an evaluation model that integrates variable weight and unascertained measure (VWUM) theories was established. First, a modified credible degree recognition was established to make the evaluation results represent both the evaluation grade and the difference in the degree to which the indexes belong to the same grade. Then, the VWUM model was established by coupling the variable weight, unascertained measure, modified credible degree recognition, and geographic information system (GIS). Last, the VWUM model is applied to a case study to evaluate water inrush risk. Results indicates that more detailed risk grades and their spatial distribution zones can be obtained by the VWUM model compared with those obtained by the water inrush coefficient. The VWUM model can provide a more accurate evaluation result.

Risk evaluation of tailings dam based on game theory and matter-extension theory

The safety and stability of tailings dam are directly related to the safety of life and property of downstream residents and the ecological and environmental safety of downstream rivers and farmland. During the operation stage of the tailings pond, safety assessment shall be carried out from seepage damage of the tailings dam, instability of the dam foundation, structural damage of the dam body, flooded roof, and safety management, etc. Aiming at a tailings pond in the running stage of Guangxi Province in China, by establishing the evaluation index system and its grading standard of the tailings dam-break, the subjectivity and objectivity of the evaluation index are taken into consideration by the combination of matter-element extension theory and game theory. Meanwhile, in order to solve the problem of the defect of the correlation function when the eigenvalue exceeds the controlled field and of the incommensurability for different units, a linear dimensionless method is adopted. The results show that the grade of tailings dam-break is I, and the eigenvalue of grade variable is 1.3, that is, the tailings pond is a “normal tailing reservoir”, but there is a risk of evolution to the “sickness tailing reservoir”. Thus, corresponding measures must be taken to prevent. In addition, the result of the two methods is consistent by comparing with the unascertained measure method, which not only validates the accuracy of the evaluation method, but also embodies the unique advantage of possessing the eigenvalue of grade variable to alert its evolution direction.