Abstract
Water inrush is a serious geological disaster in deep coal mining and rock engineering in China. The occurrence of water inrush is affected by the interaction of many controlling factors in underground reservoir areas. In order to improve the accuracy of water inrush risk evaluation, the changes in index weights due to the change in influencing factors and the uncertain factors should be both considered. In this study, an evaluation model that integrates variable weight and unascertained measure (VWUM) theories was established. First, a modified credible degree recognition was established to make the evaluation results represent both the evaluation grade and the difference in the degree to which the indexes belong to the same grade. Then, the VWUM model was established by coupling the variable weight, unascertained measure, modified credible degree recognition, and geographic information system (GIS). Last, the VWUM model is applied to a case study to evaluate water inrush risk. Results indicates that more detailed risk grades and their spatial distribution zones can be obtained by the VWUM model compared with those obtained by the water inrush coefficient. The VWUM model can provide a more accurate evaluation result.
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