Leakage Risk Assessment of Urban Water Distribution Network Based on Unascertained Measure Theory and Game Theory Weighting Method

Abstract

Assessing the risk of water leakage within urban water distribution networks (UWDN) is crucial prior to implementing any control measures. Conducting a risk assessment facilitates the development of effective water leakage management plans. By comprehensively analyzing the probability and loss factors that contribute to the risk of leakage in UWDN, this paper presents an evaluation index system for pipeline leakage risk. This index system utilized both quantitative and qualitative data on influencing factors derived from an actual pipeline network. In order to determine the precise level of pipeline leakage risk, an index theory-based pipeline leakage risk evaluation model was established. This model consisted of a single-index measure function and a multi-index comprehensive measure vector. The combined weight of evaluation indices through game theory was used to determine the weight of each index, thereby minimizing the negative effects of a single weight determination method. A risk assessment model that evaluated the leakage risk of specific pipelines was constructed based on actual data from the water distribution network in a certain area of China. The analysis showed that the risk of pipeline leakage in this area was mainly classified as a third-level risk, which is consistent with the actual evaluation results obtained from field visits.