UN Paris Research Articles

Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene

AbstractThe UN's Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming between 1.5 and 2°C is dangerously obsolete and needs to be replaced by a commitment to restore Earth's climate. We now know that continued use of fossil fuels associated with 1.5–2°C scenarios would result in hundreds of millions of pollution deaths and likely trigger multiple tipping elements in the Earth system. Unexpected advances in renewable power production and storage have radically expanded our climate response capacity. The cost of renewable technologies has plummeted at least 30‐year faster than projected, and renewables now dominate energy investment and growth. This renewable revolution creates an opportunity and responsibility to raise our climate ambitions. Rather than aiming for climate mitigation—making things less bad—we should commit to climate restoration—a rapid return to Holocene‐like climate conditions where we know humanity and life on Earth can thrive. Based on observed and projected energy system trends, we estimate that the global economy could reach zero emissions by 2040 and potentially return atmospheric CO2 to pre‐industrial levels by 2100–2150. However, this would require an intense and sustained rollout of renewable energy and negative emissions technologies on very large scales. We describe these clean electrification scenarios and outline technical and socioeconomic strategies that would increase the likelihood of restoring a Holocene‐like climate in the next 100 years. We invite researchers, policymakers, regulators, educators, and citizens in all countries to share and promote this positive message of climate restoration for human wellbeing and planetary stability.

Towards a Regenerative Role of Cultural Heritage in Climate Resilience; the Case of the Indian Water Infrastructure Heritage

Despite great efforts in facing climate change challenges—especially by the UN Paris Agreement, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and companion documents (Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the New Urban Agenda)—generally speaking, current policies on climate change and Disaster Risk Reduction at both national and international levels have not yet been centrally positioned in respective plans for heritage, and cultural heritage still does not have a central role in such policies. The main aim of this paper is to explore the culture/cultural heritage’s complex interrelationship with climate change by delving into critical issues/gaps and recommendatory encounters of heritage framework in climate change framework and vice versa at the international level and an example in India. Accordingly, this paper showcases a type of Indian Water Infrastructure Heritage; Stepwells, traditional underground water management systems in arid western India which, unfortunately, with modernization, lost their original function and hence, nowadays, most are abandoned. Thus, by the situational analysis of such an Indian urban-scale type of heritage, this paper concludes with critical reflections on the necessity of the systemic relationship among sustainability, conservation, and development, especially in practice and the need to recall the notion of sustainability again.

Finance for fossils – The role of public financing in expanding petrochemicals

The petrochemicals industry (mainly plastics and fertilizer production) is expanding, despite increasing attention to the environmental impact of petrochemicals. In our paper, we explore the role public finance plays in the petrochemicals industry. We do so by mapping the public and private financial flows into large-scale petrochemical projects for the decade 2010–20 and discuss the role of public financial institutions for the development of the industry globally. Secondly, we provide a detailed analysis of the roles international and national public finance has played in enabling two prominent petrochemical projects: namely the Sadara plant in Saudi Arabia and the Surgil plant in Uzbekistan. The cases are illustrative of the dynamics of state interest and involvement in fossil fuel producing countries as well as of lending and guarantees from foreign export credit agencies (ECAs) and development finance institutions, and how such public finance plays an important role in leveraging private finance. Our findings show how public finance for petrochemicals is highly globalized and to a large degree originates in developed countries. As petrochemical industrial infrastructures are designed to last decades, the public finance thus strongly contributes to the carbon lock-in of the sector and limits the possibilities for low-carbon investments needed to comply with the UN Paris Agreement.

Перспективи розвитку металургійного виробництва в Україні за рахунок використання нових технологій

The development of directions for decarbonization of steel production with the aim of increasing energy efficiency and improving environmental indicators by reducing carbon dioxide emissions is an urgent and promising task of today's world metallurgy. In recent years, a new constraint has appeared on industrial production – the 2015 UN Paris Agreement requires countries to ensure the transition to steel production with limited or zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in order to reduce the impact of industry on the environment. The purpose of the article is to analyze the strategic aspects of the technological development of the metallurgical industry and the decarbonization of steel production on the basis of technology transfer and the development of theoretical and methodological bases for the analysis of energy saving directions. The work presents the results of the analysis of directions for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and reducing carbon consumption in metallurgical production due to the improvement of existing and the introduction of innovative technologies. The results of theoretical and experimental research on reducing CO2 emissions conducted in the world and in Ukraine are presented. The world leaders in the development of technical and technological solutions for reducing CO2 emissions in metallurgical production are the companies of most industrialized countries. Examples of new technologies that reduce CO2 emissions are given. It is shown that developments in the decarbonization of steel production have not yet reached the level that requires a significant reduction in CO2 emissions. The prospect of creating innovative technologies is related to the use of hydrogen in metallurgical production. But the solutions proposed by foreign companies are not always possible to apply to the metallurgical production of Ukraine, they require scientific study and adaptation to the conditions of Ukraine, including taking into account the energy balance of enterprises, raw material conditions, the level of technology and competitiveness of metal products, the availability of energy carriers. The conditions to which the general strategy of decarbonization of steel production must comply have been determined. In Ukraine, it is necessary to develop its own concept of reducing CO2 emissions, taking into account the preservation of the competitiveness of products. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate and analyze the directions for reducing CO2 emissions in the metallurgy of the country and abroad for the further reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in relation to the existing and prospective conditions of operation of metallurgical enterprises of Ukraine.

Перспективы декарбонизации мировой экономики в контексте реализации Парижского климатического соглашения ООН

The UN Paris Climate Agreement requires unprecedented efforts to prevent global warming above 1,5-2°C. Despite geopolitical, economic and other disruptions, cooperation in climate sphere is one of the key directions of international interaction among the world leading economies. Many countries adopted decarbonization strategies and carbon neutrality targets by 2050-2070. The economic analysis the decarbonization scenarios showed that zero-carbon technologies in energy, industries and other sectors can play a crucial role in reduction of carbon emissions worldwide. Achievement of Paris Agreement goals can be more efficient if the mechanisms of international climate cooperation, carbon pricing and regulation would be broadly applied.

Power to regional households: consumer attitudes towards electricity-saving, the solar rebound and the determinants of rooftop solar adoption

ABSTRACT Solar energy is crucial to the transformation of the energy system, and it is important to promote ‘green’ energy technologies to achieve the 2015 UN Paris Agreement targets. This study takes a holistic view of consumers’ energy-related behaviour by identifying the factors driving the adoption of rooftop solar photovoltaic and by distinguishing the electricity conservation practices of solar and non-solar households. We reveal a nuanced understanding of the rebound effect from a behavioural perspective, which may help solar energy policy formulation and efficient decarbonization pathways in Australia and elsewhere. A face-to-face survey of 325 households in a regional city, principal component analysis and binary probit analysis were used to investigate the intention to install rooftop solar photovoltaic panels. The results show that home ownership, unwillingness to sacrifice personal comforts to save electricity, being pro-energy efficiency, and income are positively related to rooftop solar installation. In addition, different segments, such as the ‘energy-efficiency advocate’, the ‘digital tool lovers’ and the ‘behaviour change advocates’ were identified. Finally, recommendations for policy and practice are made to promote rooftop solar and more careful use of electricity in the residential sector.

Methods for quantifying methane emissions using unmanned aerial vehicles: a review.

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, emissions of which have vital consequences for global climate change. Understanding and quantifying the sources (and sinks) of atmospheric methane is integral for climate change mitigation and emission reduction strategies, such as those outlined in the 2015 UN Paris Agreement on Climate Change. There are ongoing international efforts to constrain the global methane budget, using a wide variety of measurement platforms across a range of spatial and temporal scales. The advancements in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology over the past decade have opened up a new avenue for methane emission quantification. UAVs can be uniquely equipped to monitor natural and anthropogenic emissions at local scales, displaying clear advantages in versatility and manoeuvrability relative to other platforms. Their use is not without challenge, however: further miniaturization of high-performance methane instrumentation is needed to fully use the benefits UAVs afford. Developments in the models used to simulate atmospheric transport and dispersion across small, local scales are also crucial to improved flux accuracy and precision. This paper aims to provide an overview of currently available UAV-based technologies and sampling methodologies which can be used to quantify methane emission fluxes at local scales.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Integration of Microgrids and Electric Vehicle Technologies in the National Grid as the Key Enabler to the Sustainable Development for Rwanda

Rwanda is an East African Community (EAC) nation with rapid and remarkable past development in different sectors and still with the ambitious targets and plans to be achieved in the coming years ahead. The government plans universal electricity access by 2024 with 52% grid connection and 48% off-grid connections. In the transport sector, the concept of electric vehicles has been initiated and started in order to contribute to the UN Paris agreement and decrease the reliance of the transport sector on gaseous fuels which are one source of air pollutants leading to climate change, premature deaths, and morbidity associated with poor air quality. With higher electricity demand than the generation of the Rwandan power grid, different energy strategies are being developed with the overall objective to achieve the targeted universal energy access. In order to overcome the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes an integration of solar PV microgrids for the satisfaction of electric vehicle (EV) technology in Rwanda. Using HOMER Grid software, a managed EV charging station is simulated to a grid connected solar PV microgrid with storage in order to assess the economic impact. The results show that the proposed technology can lower the levelized cost (LCOE) of electricity by 139.7%. This study can contribute to further research developments in either different perspectives related to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) with electric vehicles or studies related to affordable and environment-energy systems.

Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages

Precipitation extremes have increased across many regions of the United States, with further increases anticipated in response to additional global warming. Quantifying the impact of these precipitation changes on flood damages is necessary to estimate the costs of climate change. However, there is little empirical evidence linking changes in precipitation to the historically observed increase in flood losses. We use >6,600 reports of state-level flood damage to quantify the historical relationship between precipitation and flood damages in the United States. Our results show a significant, positive effect of both monthly and 5-d state-level precipitation on state-level flood damages. In addition, we find that historical precipitation changes have contributed approximately one-third of cumulative flood damages over 1988 to 2017 (primary estimate 36%; 95% CI 20 to 46%), with the cumulative impact of precipitation change totaling $73 billion (95% CI 39 to $91 billion). Further, climate models show that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased the probability of exceeding precipitation thresholds at the extremely wet quantiles that are responsible for most flood damages. Climate models project continued intensification of wet conditions over the next three decades, although a trajectory consistent with UN Paris Agreement goals significantly curbs that intensification. Taken together, our results quantify the contribution of precipitation trends to recent increases in flood damages, advance estimates of the costs associated with historical greenhouse gas emissions, and provide further evidence that lower levels of future warming are very likely to reduce financial losses relative to the current global warming trajectory.

생태환경 돌봄에 대한 로잔운동의 선교실천 논의

With the prolonged COVID-19 outbreak, the global interest in the ecological environment has increased. The major cause of ecosystem destruction comes from population growth and natural destruction, resulting in deepening of CO2 emissions and an overall survival crisis. Therefore, the restoration and preservation of the global environment deserves a major concern for the world church. This study looked at the Lausanne Covenant documents and its practical movements in relation to caring the global ecological environment. In particular, Lausanne and the world church leaders had a decisive influence on adopting the international program of the 2015 UN Paris Convention. However, the researcher pointed out the major denominations in Korea are still almost indifferent to this issue and called for putting them into action.

Managing carbon footprint for a sustainable supply chain: a systematic literature review

PurposeThe carbon emissions due to industrial production and market consumption activities are the major contributors to global warming. With the signing of UN Paris Accord 2016 on climate change, the world's major countries are devising measures to combat climate change and attain a sustainable, low-carbon future. Globalization demands companies not only to adopt greener manufacturing practices internally for reduced carbon footprint (CFP) but beyond its boundaries (i.e. its supply chain). This study aims to discuss the relationship between CFP and sustainable supply chain, as evident in the current literature and industry practices. It provides a total comprehension of past, present and future headings in the CFP area and its contribution to a sustainable supply chain.Design/methodology/approachA systematic literature review and analysis have been undertaken in supply chain sustainability and CFP. A bibliometric approach is adopted for this investigation, and one of the biggest computerized databases, “Scopus,” has been picked. In total, 37 articles have been zeroed in after a careful and watchful screening of firmly related topics.FindingsMost researchers gave predominance to environmental impact among the three pillars of sustainability (economy, society and the environment) for a sustainable supply chain environment. Only a few researchers were motivated to cover social development and social responsibility aspects. This review highlights how managing a CFP is one of the significant attributes of sustainable development. Existing literature in the field of CFP and sustainability have been written on actual industry cases. Food, electricity and energy are some significant industries where supply chain sustainability successfully reduces carbon emission.Originality/valueThe theory-building strategy with recommendations on the conceptualization of a sustainable supply chain is limited in the literature. This study gives broad ideas on how organizations modified and redeveloped different tools and technologies to make their supply chain more sustainable. The strategic role of different carbon policies, environmental rules and regulations in the domain of CFP is also recognized in this work. This study highlights the biases of most of the researches toward applications than policy interventions. This study discusses the theoretical perspective about how CFP affects supply chain management and helps organizations and researchers develop a new set of approaches in handling CFP and other sustainability aspects.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in California, and use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these changes are attributable to human-caused climate change. We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (∼1 °C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (∼30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather—which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires—has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. We further find an increase in the climate model-estimated probability of these extreme autumn conditions since ∼1950, including a long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in northern and southern California. Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather by the end of this century, though a pathway consistent with the UN Paris commitments would substantially curb that increase. Given the acute societal impacts of extreme autumn wildfires in recent years, our findings have critical relevance for ongoing efforts to manage wildfire risks in California and other regions.

Energy Strategies, the Urban Dimension, and Spatial Planning

The UN Paris Agreement of November 2016 recognises the need for a ‘cleaner and more efficient energy system’ as a core policy goal to address climate change. The spatial and urban form of cities is a key factor in achieving more efficient energy production and consumption and becomes more important with rapid urbanisation across much of the world. City urban form and planning are therefore potentially powerful levers for the energy transition. This paper examines the extent to which city ‘energy strategies’ address the critical spatial and urban form characteristics of cities as a means to achieve a more efficient energy system. We construct an assessment framework of key aspects of the spatial and urban development of cities related to transport and accessibility and urban form. The framework is used to assess the degree to which energy strategies take into consideration aspects of urban development in four cities that are taking significant action on the energy policy: Hong Kong Oakland, Oslo, and Vancouver. We conclude that in these cities there is only fragmentary consideration of the potential of shaping spatial and urban form in the interests of energy efficiency.

Climate economics support for the UN climate targets

Under the UN Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and to actively pursue a 1.5 °C limit. Yet, according to the 2018 Economics Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, these targets are economically suboptimal or unattainable and the world community should aim for 3.5 °C in 2100 instead. Here, we show that the UN climate targets may be optimal even in the Dynamic Integrated Climate–Economy (DICE) integrated assessment model, when appropriately updated. Changes to DICE include more accurate calibration of the carbon cycle and energy balance model, and updated climate damage estimates. To determine economically ‘optimal’ climate policy paths, we use the range of expert views on the ethics of intergenerational welfare. When updates from climate science and economics are considered jointly, we find that around three-quarters (or one-third) of expert views on intergenerational welfare translate into economically optimal climate policy paths that are consistent with the 2 °C (or 1.5 °C) target. The economic optimality of limiting global warming to below 2 °C has been questioned. This analysis shows that the 2 °C target is economically optimal in a version of the DICE model that includes updated climate science, climate damage estimates and evidence on social discount rates.

Responsibility to Safeguard (R2S): A New Norm Against Climate Atrocities Emerging From Global Climate Protests?

Meeting the UN Paris Agreement will require unprecedented social change that goes hand in hand with technological and economic innovations. Research suggests that normative change, the change in what is perceived as morally acceptable, can drive wider large-scale social change, i.e., change in legislation, policy and behaviour. In this paper we explore the normative challenge posed by Fridays for Future. Basing the analysis on a theoretical understanding of norms and normative change, we analyse computationally a large data set of tweets in the context of this protest movement to understand the normative narrative that challenges the business as usual and that has the potential to trigger wider social change. We then discuss what it would take for the normative framework that Fridays for Future offers to spread and what this could mean for wider social change. We also reflect on the necessity of further research on how social change can be accelerated in response to the climate crisis.

A Climate Club as a complementary design to the UN Paris agreement

The global coverage and the need for consensus explain why the UN Paris agreement, in several critical dimensions, is characterized by low levels of commitment and reciprocity. Hence, complementary designs are needed. This paper analyzes the parameters of such designs. New agreements should cover only nations that are willing to high levels of commitments and reciprocity. They should use measures that governments can control and be made accountable for. Commitments should be short-term and few-dimensional and they should incentivize efficient reductions, prevent leakages to outside nations and provide sanctions for noncompliance. Further, they should provide incentives to outsiders to reduce emissions and encourage them to join the agreement. A Climate Club that harmonizes minimum national carbon prices (i.e. carbon taxes), introduces a common carbon tariff, and welcomes new members to meet these criteria. Such a complementary design also has the potential to expand and, with time, provide a global price on carbon.Policy relevanceThe paper demonstrates the need to develop complementary international climate policies to the Paris agreement. It analyzes design flaws of the UN agreements and, as a complement, proposes a Climate Club among nations that are willing to introduce a price on carbon. By agreeing on a carbon tax and a carbon tariff, the club creates mechanisms that reduce emissions and enlarge the club, with the potential to provide a global price on carbon.Policy insightThe Paris design includes all nations. Such a design will be insufficient. Nations with low ambitions are provided with a veto-right, which explains the flaws of the Paris agreements.A complementary design among nations with high ambitions is needed to compensate for the flaws of the Paris agreement.By agreeing to an internal minimum carbon price and an external carbon tariff, a Climate Club can create such a design.

Electricity consumers in regional Australia: Social acceptance of coal-fired power and renewable energy

The purpose of this study is to explore the concept of 'social acceptance' and examine public opinions on climate change, renewable energy and fossil fuels in regional Australia. Understanding public opinion is critical given the need for governments to transition energy production away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy in order to meet obligations under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Design/methodology/approach This empirical study examines people's beliefs on climate change, attitudes towards energy and support for both renewable and non-renewable energy resources. A survey was developed and respondents (n= 325) were recruited face-to-face in a regional city in Northern Australia. Data was then analysed using IBM SPSS 20 software. Frequency distributions, cross tabulations and non-parametric tests were performed. Findings Respondent-completed questionnaires reveal positive attitudes towards renewable energy. Overall, respondents agree that climate change is occurring and that society has a responsibility to act to minimise its effects. Surprisingly, consumers who support coal-fired power show strong support for renewable energy, despite being undecided on the climate change issue and not perceiving a connection between electricity usage in the home and climate change. Consumers who are opposed to coal-fired power show low support for all fossil fuels, despite the fact that they will continue to underpin the Australian energy system for some time to come. In addition, demographic variables, notably gender and education, along with political affiliation, are associated with varying levels of support for particular energy technologies. Limitations The findings are based on a convenience sample of mostly urban North Queensland residents and hence is not fully representative of Queensland's population. The study is descriptive in nature and there is a need for explanatory research to validate key findings on demographics. Implications The research has several policy implications. The cost competitiveness of both solar and wind technology over coal-fired generation needs to be emphasised. Furthermore, altruistic appeals such as benefiting future generations may also be effective. Commercial marketing techniques may be useful in boosting support for emerging renewable energy resources, such as geo-thermal and fuel cell technology, amongst females. It is recommended that misconceptions about coal-fired power be addressed, for instance through community-based programs, if Australia is to make a transition to a low-carbon electricity market. Contribution This article represents an attempt to examine the attitudes of regional Australians towards a wide range of energy resources and show, by drawing on the literature on social acceptance, the key factors that underpin support for renewable energy.

Narratives and Pathways towards an Ecological Civilization in Contemporary China

AbstractSince the United States committed to withdraw from the UN Paris Agreement on climate change, international observers have increasingly asked if China can take the lead instead to raise global ambition in the context of a world leadership vacuum. Given the country's increasing economic and strategic focus on sustainable and low-carbon innovation, China might seem well placed to do so. However, much depends on the direction of governance and reform within China regarding the environment. To better understand how the government is seeking to make progress in these areas, this article explores key political narratives that have underpinned China's policies around sustainable development (kechixu fazhan) and innovation (chuangxin) within the context of broader narratives of reform. Drawing on theoretical insights from work that investigates the role of power in shaping narratives, knowledge and action around specific pathways to sustainability, this article explores the ways in which dominant policy narratives in China might drive particular forms of innovation for sustainability and potentially occlude or constrain others. In particular, we look at ecological civilization (shengtai wenming) as a slogan that has gradually evolved to become an official narrative and is likely to influence pathways to sustainability over the coming years.

Sustainability assessment of cities: SDGs and GHG emissions

ABSTRACTThe United Nations’ (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs), the core of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the UN Paris Agreement, were adopted in 2015. Involvement of not only national governments but also all other stakeholders including local governments is important to promote sustainable development and to achieve the goals. The question arises, therefore, of what methods should be used to best implement and assess sustainability issues at a local level. In this light, a new version of Comprehensive Assessment System for Built Environment Efficiency (CASBEE), CASBEE for Cities, is introduced for assessing the sustainability of cities and communities around the world based on SDG indicators and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The tool allows users to understand the sustainability of cities and communities based on quality (Q) and environmental load (L) perspectives. The sustainability assessments show that cities in developed countries tend to have good grades for Q, but bad grades for L, while cities in developing countries tend to have the opposite trend. This will assist cities and communities in both developed and developing countries to understand urgent problems and to identify effective solutions for sustainable development.

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr−1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.