An ellipsoidal volume of Rydberg molecules, entrained in a supersonic molecular beam, evolves on a nanosecond timescale to form a strongly coupled ultracold plasma. We present coupled rate-equation simulations that model the underlying kinetic processes and molecular dissociation channels in both a uniformly distributed plasma and under the conditions dictated by our experimental geometry. Simulations predict a fast electron-driven collisional avalanche to plasma followed by slow electron-ion recombination. Within 20 μs, release of Rydberg binding energy raises the electron temperature of a static plasma to Te=100 K. Providing for a quasi-self-similar expansion, the hot electron gas drives ion radial motion, reducing Te. These simulations provide a classical baseline model from which to consider quantum effects in the evolution of charge gradients and ambipolar forces in an experimental system undergoing responsive avalanche dynamics.