UK Agriculture Research Articles

Editorial and News

Editorial and News

Investigating the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in UK agro-ecosystems: An application of the DPSIR framework

Understanding how climate change will affect agro-ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide is a significant global challenge. Investigating this topic requires a holistic approach that can capture the complexity of agro-ecosystems and assess impacts on the physical, biological, and socio-economic aspects of the system. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework is a problem structuring method commonly used in environmental policy and management to collate and synthesise multidisciplinary evidence. By reviewing relevant literature and policy documents, we created a DPSIR framework characterising the impacts of climate change on some key ecosystem services directly generated by farmland biodiversity, using UK agriculture as a case study. We focussed on three groups of service providers: pollinators, pest regulators and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. We used the standard DPSIR framework to establish broad-scale relationships, before developing two extensions to the initial DPSIR, which together formed a novel three-step approach. The second step allowed detailed exploration of the cause-effect relationships between different features of the agro-ecosystem, including cascading impacts on ecosystem services. This process highlighted knowledge gaps relating to the impacts of climate change on species interactions and cultural services. The third step provided a visual summary of the expected directional trends for the different features of UK agro-ecosystems, based upon current evidence. This demonstrated negative impacts on biodiversity, soil quality, crop yields and a wide variety of ecosystem services and goods, which can only be addressed effectively with targeted policies. The novel three-step DPSIR approach developed here would be useful for modelling other complex systems where management is impeded by knowledge gaps and the availability of accessible syntheses of current evidence.

Veterinary Interventions to Improve Neonatal Survival on British Beef and Sheep Farms: A Qualitative Study.

Neonatal lamb and calf deaths are a major issue in UK agriculture. Consistent mortality rates over several decades, despite scientific advances, indicate that socioeconomic factors must also be understood and addressed for effective veterinary service delivery to improve lamb and calf survival. This qualitative study utilised semi-structured interviews with vets and farmers to explore the on-farm mechanisms and social context, with a particular focus on the role of the vet, to manage and reduce neonatal losses in beef calves and lambs on British farms. Data were analysed using a realist evaluation framework to assess how the mechanisms and context for veterinary service delivery influence survival as the outcome of interest. A lack of a clear outcome definition of neonatal mortality, and the financial, social and emotional impact of losses on both vets and farmers, are barriers to recording of losses and standardisation of acceptable mortality levels at a population level. Despite this, there appears to be an individual threshold on each farm at which losses become perceived as problematic, and veterinary involvement shifts from preventive to reactive mechanisms for service delivery. The veterinarian-farmer relationship is central to efforts to maximise survival, but the social and economic capital available to farmers influences the quality of this relationship. Health inequalities are well-recognised as an issue in human healthcare and the findings indicate that similar inequalities exist in livestock health systems.

Getting more out of farmer meetings: a practical guide for advisors

UK agriculture is full of examples of farmer meetings, discussion groups, workshops and knowledge transfer. Farming advisors run many events and workshops to help farmers improve and progress, however, the true potential of holding farmer meetings is not being realised. Facilitation can be a valuable addition to an otherwise ‘business as usual’ meeting. It can help groups to share ideas and challenges and ensure everyone has an equal voice. Facilitators and their array of tools and activities harness the available expertise at meetings to support change. By adopting a more facilitatory communication style and various discussion tool activities, advisors can improve the outcomes from existing farmer meetings and discussion groups.

Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders

Although the need for agriculture to adapt to climate change is well established, there is relatively little research within a UK context that explores how the risks associated with climate change are perceived at the farm level, nor how farmers are adapting their businesses to improve resilience in the context of climate change. Based on 31 in-depth, qualitative interviews (15 with farmers and 16 with stakeholders including advisors, consultants and industry representatives) this paper begins to address this gap by exploring experiences, attitudes and responses to extreme weather and climate change. The results point to a mixed picture of resilience to climate risks. All interviewees had experienced or witnessed negative impacts from extreme weather events in recent years but concern was expressed that too few farm businesses are taking sufficient action to increase their business resilience to extreme weather and climate change. Many farmers interviewed for this research did not perceive adaptation to be a priority and viewed the risks as either too uncertain and/or too long-term to warrant any significant investment of time or money at present when many are preoccupied with short-term profitability and business survival. We identified a range of issues and barriers that are constraining improved resilience across the industry, including some lack of awareness about the type and cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation options. Nevertheless, we also found evidence of positive actions being taken by many, whether in direct response to climate change/extreme weather or as a result of other drivers such as soil health, policy and legislation, cost reduction, productivity and changing consumer demands. Our findings reveal a number of actions that can help enable adaption at the farm level including improved industry collaboration, farmer-to-farmer learning, and the need for tools and support that take into account the specificities of different farming systems and that can be easily tailored or interpreted to help farmers understand what climate change means for their particular farm and, crucially, what they can do to increase their resilience to both extreme weather and longer term climate risks.

Future climate risk to UK agriculture from compound events

Assessments of current and future climate risk are required for adaptation planning to increase resilience and enable society to cope with future climate hazards. Here we identify case studies of compound hazard events of interest to the UK agricultural sector and present a framework for comparing the frequency and duration of compound events now to those projected in 50 years’ time. We use high resolution (12 km) simulations from the UK Climate Projections to explore how the frequency and duration of instances of potato blight and thermal heat stress to dairy cattle may change locally under RCP 8.5 emissions forcing. We combine hazard (temperature and humidity data) with vulnerability (specific threshold exceedance) and exposure (regional dairy cattle numbers/potato growing area) to estimate risk. Regions where most potatoes are grown, and where the potato blight risk is greatest in both the current and future climate, include the East of England, Yorkshire and the Humber and Eastern Scotland. By 2070, potato blight occurrences may increase by 70% in East Scotland and between 20 and 30 % across the East of England, the Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber. Assuming dairy cattle spatial distributions remain the same, the area of greatest risk now and in the future is South West England, with notable increases in risk across Northern Ireland, Wales, the Midlands, North West England and North West Scotland. Dairy cattle heat stress (using a temperature-humidity index) is projected to increase by nearly 1000% in South West England, the region with the most dairy cattle. Finally, we consider projected changes to UK seasons, using 2018 as a template, where a cold spring followed by a warm/dry summer resulted in hay/silage shortages. In addition to reduced crop yields in 2018, cattle were kept inside for longer in the cold spring and in the warm/dry summer, due to heat stress and poor grass quality. UK Climate Projections indicate that the annual probability of cold spring/warm summer conditions will decrease in future, but the annual probability of longer dry/warm summers will increase. We conclude that the agricultural sector should consider suitable climate adaptation measures to minimise the risk of dairy cattle thermal heat stress, increased potato blight, and longer dry/warm summer conditions.

Impact of Flock Health Clubs

Sheep farming is an important part of UK agriculture with significantly more breeding females than either the pig or cattle sectors. Whether grazing alongside arable rotations or utilising the marginal uplands, sheep farms arguably play a key role that is embedded within UK rural society. However, research led by University of Nottingham has identified various challenges and barriers that have affected relationships between UK sheep farmers and the veterinary profession. In response to these findings, Flock Health Clubs were developed as an initiative that aimed for improved and cost-effective sheep farmer–veterinary interaction. We report quantitative and qualitative data that assess the impact of Flock Health Clubs and indeed show tangible improvements in both farmer–veterinary surgeon relationships and measures of flock health and welfare.

Resilience of Primary Food Production to a Changing Climate: On-Farm Responses to Water-Related Risks

Water is a fundamental component in primary food production, whether it be rainfall, irrigation used to water crops, or for supplying drinking water for animals, while the amount of water in the soil determines it capacity to support machinery and animals. We identify that UK agriculture is exposed to five main water-related risks: agricultural drought, scarcity of water resources, restrictions on the right to abstract water, excess soil water, and inundation. Projected milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers by the end of the century will change the frequency, persistence, or severity of each of these risks. This paper critically reviews and synthesizes the scientific literature on the impact of these risks on primary food production and the technological and managerial strategies employed to build resilience to these changing risks. At the farm scale, the emphasis has been on strategies to build robustness to reduce the impact of a water-related risk. However, collaborative partnerships allow for a more optimal allocation of water during times of scarcity. Enhancing cross-scale interactions, learning opportunities, and catchment-scale autonomy will be key to ensuring the agricultural system can build adaptive and transformational capacity.

Science and agriculture: promoting beneficial symbiosis.

While fundamental research into key mechanisms and interactions is important, the practical investigations that scientists also undertake have additional considerations, since the results are applicable in the real world but need disseminating in a way that reaches the intended audience. Worldwide, rapid population growth produces multiple pressures on land, meaning agriculture must become more efficient and productive. Other pressures on farmers are also increasing: to meet environmental quality standards, to follow legislation about application of chemical products, to remain financially viable against uncertain markets, and more. Applied research addresses specific aspects, but often reports do not describe local contexts or are too restricted, lacking details that enable an understanding of their wider application. We illustrate from our experience within UK agriculture, with a particular focus on soil, the identification of current shortcomings in many research publications; provide examples of good practice; and make suggestions for how scientists can help agriculturalists use their work to address the global issues currently faced. Specifically, we recommend that communication between science and agricultural communities is nurtured, to improve mutual understanding and facilitate two-way flow of ideas. In scientific publications, provision of as much contextual information as possible, and consideration for climatic/temporal/location influences, will enable investigations and results to be used for maximum practical effect and should increase citations.

Can Greater Levels of Cooperation Help to Improve Productivity and Resilience in UK Agriculture Post Brexit Drawing Comparisons with the New Zealand Dairy Industry Experience?

Can Greater Levels of Cooperation Help to Improve Productivity and Resilience in UK Agriculture Post Brexit Drawing Comparisons with the New Zealand Dairy Industry Experience?

The 2019 BCPC Congress – Understanding the Demands and Opportunities of a "Green Brexit" – How Do We Deliver Food Production Alongside Environmental Enhancement?

This was the 7th Congress since BCPC decided to return to Brighton for an autumnal discussion on regulatory affairs. The focus was to be very much on the impact of Brexit that had been promised, but not yet delivered. Whatever happens in the future regarding the UK's relationship with the EU, many changes in UK agriculture are expected as the government empathises on the environment rather than production, with farmers having to contend with fewer pesticides registered for use, increasing problems of insects, diseases and weeds resistant to pesticides and the impact of climate change. Farmers will still have to produce high quality food at a low cost to the consumer as the EU policy is to adopt Integrated Pest Management (IPM) as part of the strategy for the sustainable use of pesticides. New technology with genetic engineering, which is increasing the possibility to improve crop varieties more resistant to pests and diseases as well as drought conditions, has to be embraced alongside new ways of applying pesticides and automation in a digital era.

The challenges of developing an irrigation strategy for UK agriculture and horticulture in 2020: industry and research priorities

Abstract In many countries, including the UK, water resources are under intense stress with recent droughts highlighting the risks to the security of supplies for different sectors including domestic water supply, industry, agriculture (including horticulture), power generation and the environment. A changing climate with greater rainfall uncertainty, coupled with new regulations, increasing competition for water and demands for sustainable development will only exacerbate the current situation, with major supply-demand imbalances expected over the next few decades. In the UK, irrigated agriculture constitutes a volumetrically small but economically high value use of water, to maximise crop yields and quality. However, the importance of irrigation is also changing; driven by the intensification and transformation of the agricultural sector, the need to recognise water as an ‘essential’ use, policy incentives to increase domestic food production and an industry imperative to increase water use efficiency 1 and ensure agricultural expansion can continue to underpin the rural economy. This review considers the key climate and water-related risks facing the agricultural and horticultural crop sectors, the various environmental, regulatory and business externalities or ‘drivers for change’, and the strategic priorities for action, both from industry and research perspectives.

Agriculture and Brexit Britain's ‘No‐deal’ Tariff Plans

SummaryIn March 2019 the UK government published details of the import tariffs it planned to apply in the event of a ‘no‐deal’ Brexit from the EU. Some 88 per cent of the UK's imports – including many agri‐food products – would enter tariff‐free. This proposed unilateral reduction in border protection promoted few protests from the UK's farm lobby, in marked contrast to the reaction voiced by EU farmers to the planned trade agreement with Mercosur. Trade diplomats are often loath to contemplate unilateral tariff cuts, as these could later form a crucial part of a bargain in multilateral or bilateral trade deals. Indeed, the UK's ‘no‐deal’ tariff plan could undermine its objective of concluding ambitious Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the likes of Australia and the USA. Despite these developments in agri‐trade policy, UK politicians continued to express concern about the viability of UK agriculture in a ‘no‐deal’ scenario, and some promised to lavish tax‐payer‐funded support on the sector. Thus both free (or freer) trade and agricultural exceptionalism were canvassed cheek by jowl.

Making Brexit work for the environment and livelihoods: Delivering a stakeholder informed vision for agriculture and fisheries

Abstract The decision of the UK to leave the EU has far‐reaching, and often shared, implications for agriculture and fisheries. To ensure the future sustainability of the UK’s agricultural and fisheries systems, we argue that it is essential to grasp the opportunity that Brexit is providing to develop integrated policies that improve the management and protection of the natural environments, upon which these industries rely. This article advances a stakeholder informed vision of the future design of UK agriculture and fisheries policies. We assess how currently emerging UK policy will need to be adapted in order to implement this vision. Our starting point is that Brexit provides the opportunity to redesign current unsustainable practices and can, in principle, deliver a sustainable future for agriculture and fisheries. Underpinning policies with an ecosystem approach, explicit inclusion of public goods provision and social welfare equity were found to be key provisions for environmental, agricultural and fishery sustainability. Recognition of the needs of, and innovative practices in, the devolved UK nations is also required as the new policy and regulatory landscape is established. Achieving the proposed vision will necessitate drawing on best practice and creating more coherent and integrated food, environment and rural and coastal economic policies. Our findings demonstrate that “bottom‐up” and co‐production approaches will be key to the development of more environmentally sustainable agriculture and fisheries policies to underpin prosperous livelihoods. However, delivering this vision will involve overcoming significant challenges. The current uncertainty over the nature and timing of the UK’s Brexit agreement hinders forward planning and investment while diverting attention away from further in‐depth consideration of environmental sustainability. In the face of this uncertainty, much of the UK’s new policy on the environment, agriculture and fisheries is therefore ambitious in vision but light on detail. Full commitment to co‐production of policy with devolved nations and stakeholders also appears to be lacking, but will be essential for effective policy development and implementation. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Fertile Ground: Opportunities and Challenges for UK Agriculture

This paper examines the current state of UK agriculture and argues that the goals of an Independent UK Agricultural Policy should include: to provide affordable food for consumers, to support farmers so that they can be competitive in domestic and global markets, and to preserve the UK’s agricultural traditions and environment. To achieve these goals following Brexit, the paper recommends making the most of leaving the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) by moving away from the Common External Tariff (CET), and amber box production subsidies. Furthermore, a more positive approach to new technologies, allowing farmers to innovate and move away from environmentally degrading old technologies, should be pursued. The paper further discusses ways in which transition to a new UK agricultural policy can be made in a manner that is least disruptive for existing producers, including through the use of transitional grants and a gradual phasing out of certain subsidies. The paper recommends that the UK exit with a that includes a transition perio to allow continued support, while new policies are implemented. However, in the event of a no deal exit, certain necessary steps that the UK could take to protect consumers are discussed. These include the removal of all tariff and quota restrictions on a number of foodstuffs which the UK does not produce, as well as opening tariff rate quotas up erga omnes to allow competition from efficient global producers, especially for the beef and dairy sectors.

Yield instability of winter oilseed rape modulated by early winter temperature

Yield stability is a major problem in oilseed rape with inter-annual variation accounting for between 30–50% of the crop value among the major global rapeseed producers. The United Kingdom has persistent problems with yield instability, but the underlying causes remain unclear. We tested whether temperature plays a role in UK winter oilseed rape (WOSR) yield variation through analysis of aggregated country-wide on-farm yield data and in annual Recommended List variety trial data run by the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). Our analyses of the two independent datasets both show that mean temperature in early winter is strongly and uniquely linked to variation in WOSR yield, with a rise in mean temperature of 1 °C associated with an average reduction of 113 (+−21) kg ha−1 in yield. We propose that understanding the mechanism by which early winter chilling affects WOSR yield will enable the breeding of varieties with a more stable and resilient yield in Western Europe as climatic variation increases.

Estimating the farm-level economic costs of spring cropping to manage Alopecurus myosuroides (black-grass) in UK agriculture

AbstractCrop rotation is a non-chemical strategy adopted by farmers to manage weeds. However, not all crops in a rotation are equally profitable. Thus, there is potentially a trade-off between the costs and benefits of this strategy. The objective of the current study is to quantify this trade-off for the rotational control of an important weed (Alopecurus myosuroides). Data from 745 farms were used to parameterize a farm-level mixed-integer goal-programming model of the economics of spring cropping for weed control in UK agriculture. On average, the short-term loss of profit from spring cropping is greater than the benefits in terms of reduced herbicide usage and yield increases. These costs are greater when weed densities are low, so that spring cropping is an expensive strategy in the early stages of an infestation. However, there is a great deal of farm-to-farm variation: factors such as soil type and farm size are important and the current study highlights that economic modelling at the farm level is important in enabling farmers to make informed decisions. In general, however, if spring cropping is to be a successful strategy then the benefits to farmers will be in terms of long-term reductions in weed densities, but this will be at the expense of short-term profitability.

UK Unilateral: Post-Brexit Liberalization Potential

This study assesses the potential gains from unilateral trade liberalization for the UK, against the background of a hard Brexit in which a hard border and tariff wall is erected between the UK and the European Union. Unilateral trade liberalization would allow the UK to expeditiously offset at least some of the trade costs incurred in leaving the EU Single Market without a deal as it does not depend on negotiation with third parties, and hence is not limited by trade negotiating capacity in the UK or its prospective free trade partners. At the same time, unilateral liberalization faces the political economy challenge of removing protection in the most sensitive sectors, which is where most of the liberalization gains come from, while also giving up leverage to conclude future trade agreements. A highly ambitious unilateral liberalization scenario represents, in terms of trade structure and costs, a substantial gain but falls short of offsetting a hard Brexit (when both the unilateral scenario and the hard Brexit scenario are modelled on a common set of modelling assumptions and protocols). Based on the modelling results, the main political economy challenge to unilateral liberalization for the UK in a post-EU trade policy context would be the deep negative impacts on UK agriculture.

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

SummaryThere is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.

Empirical evidence for the diffusion of knowledge in land use change

ABSTRACTChanges and innovations in land management have been hypothesised to spread through knowledge diffusion between land managers. Such diffusion can occur directly between neighbours or, in recent years, through various forms of information technology. Land system models and policy initiatives do not generally account for this process, partly because of a lack of empirical studies of its spatial and temporal properties. We look for evidence of the existence and form of diffusion in UK agriculture and forestry between 1968 and 2015, using logistic models of spatial dependencies in the uptake of new crops and subsidies. Strong evidence is found of spatial diffusion, with no clear evidence that its form has changed systematically over recent decades. We conclude that improved understanding of diffusion is necessary for land use policy-making and modelling to account for the spatial aggregations and time lags that remain characteristic of the uptake of new management practices.