Abstract
Yield stability is a major problem in oilseed rape with inter-annual variation accounting for between 30–50% of the crop value among the major global rapeseed producers. The United Kingdom has persistent problems with yield instability, but the underlying causes remain unclear. We tested whether temperature plays a role in UK winter oilseed rape (WOSR) yield variation through analysis of aggregated country-wide on-farm yield data and in annual Recommended List variety trial data run by the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). Our analyses of the two independent datasets both show that mean temperature in early winter is strongly and uniquely linked to variation in WOSR yield, with a rise in mean temperature of 1 °C associated with an average reduction of 113 (+−21) kg ha−1 in yield. We propose that understanding the mechanism by which early winter chilling affects WOSR yield will enable the breeding of varieties with a more stable and resilient yield in Western Europe as climatic variation increases.
Highlights
Yield stability is an important crop trait and determines the predictability of farm incomes on a global scale
To examine the role of environmental temperature on rapeseed yield stability in the UK we began by analysing aggregated UK-wide on-farm yields from the period 1990 to 2016
During this time mean winter oilseed rape (WOSR) yields have increased in the UK, in line with those of other countries[6] (Fig. 2A)
Summary
Yield stability is an important crop trait and determines the predictability of farm incomes on a global scale. In European winter oilseed rape (WOSR), yield variation caused by weather was much larger than that attributable to differences between cultivars in multisite trials[3], and the genotype by environment (G × E) interaction was small. This indicates a lack of variation in yield stability traits in modern hybrids. To understand sources of yield instability in the UK rapeseed crop we sought to analyse the effects of temperature during 36 20-day windows of WOSR development. Because low temperatures during this period are associated with higher yields, we conclude that December chill is a major determinant of UK rapeseed yields
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