Typhoon Hagibis Research Articles

Impact of historical and future warming on heavy rainfall over eastern Japan induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) in dynamical downscaling simulations

Impact of historical and future warming on heavy rainfall over eastern Japan induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) in dynamical downscaling simulations

South China Sea Typhoon Hagibis enhanced Xinfengjiang Reservoir seismicity

There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis. To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity, we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction. Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir, with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault. The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir, and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy. In contrast, a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun. Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events, we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir. Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.

Impact of Assimilation of the Tropical Cyclone Strong Winds Observed by Synthetic Aperture Radar on Analyses and Forecasts

Abstract A few high-wind observations have been obtained from satellites over the ocean around tropical cyclones (TCs), but the impact of data assimilation of such observations over the sea on forecasting has not been clear. The spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides high-resolution and wide-area ocean surface wind speed data around the center of a TC. In this study, the impact of data assimilation of the ocean surface wind speed of SAR (OWSAR) on regional model forecasts was investigated. The assimilated data were estimated from SAR on board Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT-2. The bias of OWSAR depends on wind speed, the observation error variance depends on wind speed and incidence angle, and the spatial observation error correlation depends on the incidence angle. The observed OWSAR is screened using the variational quality control method with the Huber norm. In the case of Typhoon Hagibis (2019), OWSAR assimilation modified the TC low-level inflow, which also modified the TC upper-level outflow. The propagation of this OWSAR assimilation effect from the surface to the upper troposphere was given by a four-dimensional variational method that searches for the optimal solution within strong constraints on the time evolution of the forecast model. Statistical validation confirmed that errors in the TC intensity forecast decreased over lead times of 15 h, but this was not statistically significant. The validation using wind profiler observations showed that OWSAR assimilation significantly improved the accuracy of wind speed predictions from the middle to the upper level of the troposphere. Significance Statement The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the impact of the assimilation of ocean surface wind speed by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) on regional model predictions. In the case of tropical cyclones, ocean surface wind speed assimilation modified inflows in the lower layer and outflows in the upper layer. The results indicate that the SAR assimilation improves the accuracy of wind speed forecasts in the middle to upper troposphere.

Detection of Flooded Areas Caused by Typhoon Hagibis by Applying a Learning-Based Method Using Sentinel-1 Data

Detection of Flooded Areas Caused by Typhoon Hagibis by Applying a Learning-Based Method Using Sentinel-1 Data

Assessment of compound occurrence of storm surge and river flood in Ise and Mikawa Bays, Japan using a framework of atmosphere–ocean–river coupling

This study evaluated the compound flood risk of 11 different-sized rivers in the estuaries of the Ise and Mikawa Bays, Japan using an integrated framework of atmosphere–ocean–river developed in this study (one-way coupling). First, the framework was developed by incorporating the river channel into a coupled model of surge-wave-tide to include the interaction of the storm surge runup and river flow. In addition, the framework was validated by the Typhoon Trami (2018)-induced meteorological field, discharge, and storm surge with high accuracy. Second, the time difference between the storm surge and discharge at the estuary (ΔT) was investigated, assuming six typhoons with different tracks and similar distributions of intensity and precipitation using Typhoon Hagibis (2019) as a case study. The ΔT was highly positively correlated with the length of the river channel (correlation coefficient: 0.90). Moreover, the smaller rivers were more prone than large rivers to simultaneous storm surges and high river flow. The average ΔT for the smaller rivers was 180.4 min (normalized S.D. = 0.31) with a minimum of 15 min in the most severe case, while the average ΔT for the large-scale rivers was 614.1 min (normalized S.D. = 0.39). We clarified that the storm surge and high river flow occurred simultaneously (within 15 min) in the most severe river case (Yagyu River). These results infer that small rivers have a more significant impact on the co-occurrence of storm surge and high-river flow than large-scale rivers.

Fine scale simulation of sea salt aerosol under strong wind: WRF sensitivity test on PBL schemes and LES under Typhoon Hagibis

Identifying which factors among the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, grid resolution, and source or sink terms dominantly influence the sea salt aerosol (SSA) spatial distribution is necessary. The dependence of SSA transport on PBL processes was investigated using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a grid scale of ∼143 m. Size-segregated SSA transport during Typhoon Hagibis, which made landfall in Japan in 2019, was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The PBL schemes of Yonsei University (YSU), scale-aware YSU (Shin and Hong, 2015's scheme, SH) and Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN), and large-eddy simulation (LES) subjected to turbulence transition enhancement via a cell perturbation method were tested to evaluate the reproducibility of observed values of wind speed, surface pressure, relative humidity, and temperature at meteorology masts. The results showed that wind speed was most influenced by the selection of the PBL scheme and LES. The distance from the coastline, as determined by the wind direction during the most intense typhoon stage, was correlated with a decrease in the time averaged SSA concentration when the storm moved inland. Despite the simulated SSA emission scheme's high sensitivity to wind speed (nearly 3rd power), the near-surface average concentration was less sensitive to the PBL schemes and LES selection than wind speed. However, the maximum arrival of the SSA differed by ∼20 % during the most vigorous stage of the typhoon. Budget analysis of the SSA transport equation highlighted that the advection term and gravity settling were most dependent on the PBL schemes and LES. The impacts of both factors on SSA transport were not limited to near-surface tendencies but were in a broader range over the atmosphere, up to 1–2 km. These results indicated that the vertical structure of the SSA field over the boundary layer depended on the PBL schemes and LES, thereby modulating the inland arrival of the SSA.

Influential factors of long-term and seasonal 137Cs change in agricultural and forested rivers: Temperature, water quality and an intense Typhoon Event

In this study, the effect of temperature, water quality, and the impact of an intense typhoon event on change in 137Cs concentration in the water of agricultural and forested rivers near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Japan) was evaluated using monthly stationary observations obtained under baseflow conditions 2.8–10.6 years after the nuclear accident in 2011. The dissolved 137Cs concentration fluctuated seasonally with water temperature in all rivers, and the increase in dissolved 137Cs concentration for unit increase in temperature was higher in forested rivers than in agricultural rivers. The relationship between water temperature and the apparent distribution coefficient of 137Cs well followed the van ’t Hoff equation in the two agricultural rivers, where the enthalpy of reaction was estimated as −15.6 and −19.6 kJ mol−1. The van ’t Hoff equation was not well followed for a forested river, where the suspended solids mainly comprised organic matter, suggesting that the dominant process determining dissolved 137Cs concentrations in forested rivers is not only water temperature effect on ion exchange, but rather the input of 137Cs and K+ (competing with 137Cs for exchange sites on mineral particles) into the water phase via litter leaching. Suspended solids concentrations in agricultural rivers correlated negatively with 137Cs concentrations in suspended solids, suggesting an increased proportion of coarse particles or the input of soils with low 137Cs concentration from decontaminated agricultural land. At some sites, 137Cs concentrations in dissolved form and in suspended solids were reduced sharply in association with the passage of Typhoon Hagibis in October 2019, suggesting that Typhoon Hagibis caused large-scale surface erosion that removed the source of 137Cs.

MODELING OF WIND-WAVE GROWTH IN STRONG WIND CONDITIONS BASED ON PHASE-RESOLVING WAVE MODEL

Recently, coastal disaste have occurred by typhoons passing through bays, such as Typhoon Jebi in 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 (Mori et al.(2019), Shimozono et al.(2020)). The current wave model cannot simultaneously account for the development of wind waves due to strong winds and wave deformation due to topography. This study aims to develop a phase-resolving wave model that considers the development of wind waves in shallow water under strong wind conditions. A wave development term that considers the local wave deformation is introduced into the phase-resolving wave model. XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009) a numerical model based on the nonlinear long wave equation with nonhydrostatic pressure term, is used to calculate the waves in coastal areas. The wave development term is introduced, and the wave development process is optimized based on sensitivity experiments.

Applying the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to flood risk management at a community level: Koriyama city's emergency-response process during Typhoon Hagibis

This study used the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to analyze a real-world example of an emergency-response process, one that occurred in Koriyama city, Japan, during Typhoon Hagibis (known in Japan as Typhoon No. 19, or Reiwa 1 East Japan Typhoon). The analysis revealed nine functions that constitute the municipality's emergency-response process (including Public Communication, Provision/Management of Evacuation Shelters, Evacuation, and Rescue Operations) as well as the interactive relationships between these functions. It also revealed how variabilities in the timeliness and accuracy of the functions resonated with (reinforced) each other, culminating in an incident involving a backlog of emergency calls. From these results, two recommendations were derived: reviewing the public communication system and building a framework for minimizing variability in evacuation behavior. And also, based on the FRAM analysis we could contextualize the interview data and the individual phenomena described fragmentally in the retrospective report (used for evaluating the disaster response), thereby gaining an understanding of the incident generation mechanism. In conclusion, the study demonstrated FRAM can be an effective tool for retrospective evaluation of disaster response or revising a disaster plan.

Hydrologic-geotechnical modelling of shallow landslide and flood hazards caused by heavy rainfall

Landslides and flooding are two of the most common hazards associated with heavy rainfall. Most studies, however, tackle the occurrence of these hazards separately or independently. Therefore, this study introduces a catchment-scale, multihazard approach that unifies the assessment of both phenomena through a combination of hydrological and geotechnical principles. By incorporating surface flow, infiltration, and slope stability analyses, the spatio-temporal response of both landslides and flooding during intense or heavy rainfall is characterized. To improve computational efficiency, a hybrid approach, consisting of the zero- and local-inertia flow models, is introduced to approximate the surface flow. Additionally, rainfall infiltration is estimated using the one-dimensional Green-Ampt model, and the results are incorporated in a deterministic slope stability analysis whose failure mechanism is generated from the forces arising from the effects of surface flow and the downward propagation of water along the assumed failure surface. The model is applied in the catchment of Marumori Town, Japan which suffered numerous landslide and flooding disasters during Typhoon Hagibis in 2019. The results indicate that the proposed model successfully simulates the hydrologic and geotechnical response of the catchment showing the distribution of both unstable slopes and inundated areas indicative of landslide and flooding hazards. The model’s capability to identify the timing and location of potential landslide and flood-prone areas could provide a practical framework for a unified early warning system, enhancing emergency planning and response efforts during heavy rainfall.

Assessment of climate change impacts on river flooding due to Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 using nonglobal warming experiments

AbstractIn this study, a series of numerical analyses of meteorology, runoff, river flow, and inundation were performed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of historical warming on precipitation, discharge, water level, and flood inundation. This study was on the flood inundation of the Chikuma River Basin in Japan caused by Typhoon Hagibis in 2019. The historical warming impact on Typhoon Hagibis was analyzed by comparing nonglobal warming experiments (NonWs) and control experiments (CTLs) to reproduce the current situation. Calculated results showed that the ratios of the index of CTLs to that of NonWs (mean CTL to mean NonW) as indicators of the impact of historical warming were 1.08, 1.22, and 1.08–3.08 for total precipitation, peak river discharge, and peak water level (from pre‐flood level and high‐water level), respectively, and 48.1 and 595 for overflow depth and inundation volume for the Chikuma River, respectively. Results of the hydrologic‐sensitivity analysis indicated that the influence of historical warming during the last 40‐year period was already evident on overflow and flooding, whose sensitivities were higher than those of discharge and water level.

Risk-based versus storyline approaches for global warming impact assessment on basin-averaged extreme rainfall: a case study for Typhoon Hagibis in eastern Japan

Two methods exist to address the degree to which past extreme events and associated disasters will be intensified due to climate change: storyline approaches and risk-based approaches. However, the risk-based approach applied to weather similar to the target event (typhoons, a stationary weather front,…etc) becomes theoretically similar to the storyline approach. We examine this theory for the climate change impact of a real event, Typhoon Hagibis, which caused devastating flood damage to eastern Japan in 2019, while focusing on basin-averaged accumulated rainfall (BAAR) in major eastern river basins. A risk-based approach was conducted to determine the future change of BAAR by calculating the quantile change corresponding to Hagibis from the probability distribution of typhoon-induced events in a large ensemble climate simulation dataset database for Policy Decision-making for Future climate change (past, +2K and +4K future climates). A storyline approach for Typhoon Hagibis was realized using a pseudo global warming (PGW) experiment with a 5 km non-hydrostatic model. The projected BAAR in the two approaches were consistent for all target basins, supporting the robustness of the calculated changes in extreme catchment precipitation. This presents an important practical benefit: one can assess future climate change impact on a past symbolic event using either PGW experiments or large ensemble climate projections for the target weather.

Geology‐Climate Interactions are Key Determinants of Climate‐Change Refugia in Japanese Mountain Streams

Photo 1. Example of the confluence of a volcanic and nonvolcanic stream (left panel). The right panel is a thermal photograph of the confluence taken using a TVS-500 camera (Nippon Avionics Co., Ltd.) on September 17, 2019, where blue colors correspond to the cold water from the volcanic stream mixing with the warmer (orange) water from the nonvolcanic stream. Photo credit: Kenta Iwasaki. Photo 2. View of a volcanic stream, Ponnunobe stream, the Sorachi river, Hokkaido, Japan. The stream is located inside the University of Tokyo Hokkaido Forest. Many springs (top panels) occur in around the main channel (bottom panel). In this region, the mean summer water temperature of volcanic streams is 3°C colder than that of nonvolcanic streams on average. Photo credit: Yu Nagasaka. Photo 3. Wrinklehead sculpin (upper panel: Cottus nozawae) and Southern Asian Dolly Varden (lower panel: Salvelinus curilus) two major cold-water species in northern Japan. Their distribution is tightly restricted by summer water temperature. Photo credit: Yu Nagasaka (upper panel) and Chiharu Furusawa (lower panel). Photo 4. View of biotic and abiotic surveys in mountain streams, Japan. Macroinvertebrates (upper left panel) and fish (lower left panel) were collected once in each monitoring stream. Water loggers were installed with short sections of perforated PVC pipes to facilitate water exchange and shield them from sunlight (right panels). Photo credit: Jorge García Molinos. Photo 5. Dynamic changes in riverscapes at a monitoring site due to a large flood associated with Typhoon Hagibis, 2019 (before: upper panel, after: lower panel). Monitoring of water temperature in the Japanese archipelago is very challenging because of the many typhoons hitting the archipelago every summer season. Unfortunately, the temperature data of this site in 2019 was not available due to the loss of the logger. The yellow bridge at the upper-left corner of the picture offers a good visual reference to compare both pictures. Photo credit: Nobuo Ishiyama. These photographs illustrate the article “Underlying geology and climate interactively shape climate change refugia in mountain streams” by Ishiyama, N., Sueyoshi, M., García Molinos, J., Iwasaki, K., Negishi, J. N., Koizumi, I., Nagayama, S., Nagasaka, A., Nagasaka, Y. & Nakamura, F. published in Ecological Monographs. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1566

Developing Flood Risk Zones during an Extreme Rain Event from the Perspective of Social Insurance Management

Recently, Japan has been hit by more frequent and severe rainstorms and floods. Typhoon Hagibis caused heavy flooding in many river basins in central and eastern Japan from 12–13 October 2019, resulting in loss of life, substantial damage, and many flood insurance claims. Considering that obtaining accurate assessments of flood situations remains a significant challenge, this study used a geographic information system (GIS)-based analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach to develop flood susceptibility maps for the Abukuma, Naka, and Natsui River Basins during the Typhoon Hagibis event. The maps were based on population density, building density, land-use profile, distance from the river, slope, and flood inundation. A novel approach was also employed to simulate the flood inundation profiles of the river basins. In addition, a crosscheck evaluated the relationship between flood insurance claims and the developed flood risk zones within the river basins. Over 70% of insurance claims were concentrated in high to very high risk zones identified by the flood susceptibility maps. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of this type of assessment in identifying areas that are particularly vulnerable to flood damage, which can be a useful reference for flood disaster management and related stakeholder concerns for future extreme flood events.

Impact evaluation of typhoons and remediation works on spatiotemporal evolution of air dose rate in two riverside parks in Fukushima, Japan after the Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident

This study elucidated the impacts of typhoon events and remediation works on the spatiotemporal evolution of the air dose rate in riverside areas frequented by residents. Spatial distribution of the air dose rate and radiocesium concentration in the sediments were measured in two riverside parks located near each other in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, for 2015–2020. The air dose rates measured by walk surveys were interpolated using ordinary kriging to generate air dose rate maps, to facilitate a comparison between the results at different points in time during the measurement campaigns. After the typhoons that occurred during 2015–2018, the air dose rate near the riverside in one park decreased, but not in the other, because the erosion and sediment deposition patterns differed between them. This could be due to the presence of a dam upstream, which serves a flood mitigation function. However, the extreme event of typhoon Hagibis in 2019 dropped the air dose rates near the riversides in both parks. In contrast to the typhoon events which affected the riverside areas, remediation works such as decontamination undertaken during 2015–2019 reduced the air dose rates around the garden and lawn areas which are frequently used as recreational sites. Modeling the temporal evolutions in the air dose rates for the entire area of the riverside parks revealed that 35% of the reduction was caused by physical decay of radiocesium on average, 14% by vertical migration of radiocesium in the soil through precipitation, and 51% by the three typhoons and remediation works during 2015–2019. The contribution of 20% from the strongest typhoon Hagibis highlights the fact that floods resulting from large typhoons are effective in causing natural attenuation of air dose rates in riverside parks.

Application of Kalman Filter to Large-scale Geospatial Data: Modeling Population Dynamics

To utilize a huge amount of observation data based on real-world events, a data assimilation process is needed to estimate the state of the system behind the observed data. The Kalman filter is a very commonly used technique in data assimilation, but it has a problem in terms of practical use from the viewpoint of processing efficiency and estimating the deterioration in precision when applied to particularly large-scale datasets. In this article, we propose a method that simultaneously addresses these problems and demonstrate its usefulness. The proposed method improves the processing efficiency and suppresses the deterioration in estimation precision by introducing correction processes focusing on the non-negative nature and sparseness of data in wavelet space. We show that the proposed method can accurately estimate population dynamics on the basis of an evaluation done using population data generated from cellular networks. In addition, the possibility of wide area abnormality detection using the proposed method is shown from a situation analysis of when Category 5 typhoon Hagibis made landfall in Japan. The proposed method has been deployed in a commercial service to estimate real-time population dynamics in Japan.

Radiative Effects on Tropical Cyclone Development in Different Life Stages

Abstract A tropical cyclone (TC) is a powerful, rotating storm that typically originates over warm tropical oceans and creates strong winds and heavy rain; it is usually a natural disaster with respect to human life and property if it moves over land. This work examines effects of varying radiative forcing on the evolution of two typhoon cases—Typhoon Lionrock (2016) and Typhoon Hagibis (2019)—with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Hagibis was a rapidly intensifying and quickly moving TC, whereas Lionrock gradually developed and was slow moving. Numerous sensitivity experiments in which shortwave and longwave radiative heating rates were modified were conducted. This study examined latent heating and radiative heating for each experiment. Substantial differences between the sensitivity simulation members indicated that radiative effects can strongly influence TC development. The analysis of diabatic heating sources shows that, before eyewall formation, the differential cooling effect, which indicates that longwave cooling rates between cloud clusters and clear sky differ, can promote low-level inflow and increase relative humidity in the cloud clusters. If the initial relative humidity is low, this effect becomes important because, without differential cooling, the relative humidity remains low, which can promote the generation of cold pools that will prevent cyclone development. After eyewall formation, both the change in temperature lapse rate due to a vertical gradient of radiative heating/cooling and the change in the warm core due to radiative heating/cooling can affect the intensity of a TC; however, the net effect may depend on the magnitude of these influences.

Diverse shear behaviors of clayey materials: Implications for differing landsliding behaviors within the same area in Niigata, Japan

In Niigata, Japan, many landslides have occurred in Tertiary rocks. Although most of these landslides were slow-moving, some underwent catastrophic failure, and different types of landslides sometimes occurred nearby under almost identical geological and hydrological conditions, but their mechanisms remain unclear. This study introduces a landslide triggered by Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 in an area in Niigata prone to landslide disasters. The landslide was small in scale, but the displaced materials were fluidized and deposited on a flat field at the toe of the slope after a long runout. To unravel this landslide's initiation and movement mechanisms, we conducted ring shear tests on the samples (clayey soils) taken from the landslide source area to examine their shear behaviors under both undrained and naturally drained conditions. Our results of undrained shear tests showed that shearing of the saturated landslide material can develop high pore-water pressure, lowering the shear resistance and elevating the mobility of the landslide. The results of shear tests under naturally drained conditions at different shear displacement rates (V) revealed that landslide materials behave rate-weakening at low and rate-strengthening at high rates, respectively. Further, it was found that during continuous shearing, a sudden change in V results in a sharp but temporal change in the mobilized shear strength. Different accelerations through which the shear rate was increased to a given V also result in different mobilized peak shear strengths. Our results indicate that the different landsliding phenomena occurring in the same area might be regulated by the diverse shear behaviors of the landslide materials involved in the sliding: contractive behavior may result in catastrophic failure, while the shear rate- and state-dependent shear behavior of the landslide material regulates the slow landsliding phenomena. Our results provide new insights for better understanding and predicting different landsliding phenomena within the same geological settings.

Dynamic Roughness Modeling of Seasonal Vegetation Effect: Case Study of the Nanakita River

Hydraulic models of rivers are essential for vulnerability assessment in disaster management. This study simulates the 2019 Typhoon Hagibis at the Nanakita River using a dynamic roughness model. The model estimates the roughness of the river on a pixel level from the relationship between the Manning roughness coefficient and the degree of submergence of vegetation. This degree is defined as the ratio of water depth to plant height. After validating the model, the effect of vegetation on the water level in different seasons from April 2020 to March 2021 was assessed. The vegetation area and height were obtained on a pixel level using unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry. The dynamic roughness model showed that the water level profile increased by 7.03% on average. The seasonal effect of vegetation was observed, revealing a strong correlation between variations in the vegetation conditions and water level profile. This approach may help mitigate flood damage by indicating the factors that can increase the risk of flooding.

Investigating the Effects of Super Typhoon HAGIBIS in the Northwest Pacific Ocean Using Multiple Observational Data

Various multi-source observational platforms have enabled the exploration of ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NPO). This study investigated daily oceanic variables in response to the combined effect of the 2019 super typhoon HAGIBIS and the Kuroshio current meander (KCM), which has caused economic, ecological, and climatic changes in the NPO since August 2017. During HAGIBIS, the six-hourly wind speed data estimated a wind stress power (Pw) which strengthened around the right and left semicircles of the typhoon, and an Ekman pumping velocity (EPV) which intensified at the center of the typhoon track. As a result, firstly, the sea temperature (ST) decreased along a boundary with a high EPV and a strong cyclonic eddy area, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) was shallow. Secondly, a low sea salinity (SS) concentration showed another area where heavy rain fell on the left side of the typhoon track. Phytoplankton bloom (PB) occurred with a large concentration of chlorophyll a (0.641 mg/m3) over a wide extent (56,615 km2; above 0.5 mg/m3) after one day of HAGIBIS. An analysis of a favorable environment of the PB’s growth determined the cause of the PB, and a shift of the subsurface chlorophyll maximum layer (SCML; above 0.7 mg/m3) was estimated by comprehensive impact analysis. This study may contribute to understanding different individually-estimated physical and biological mechanisms and predicting the recurrence of ocean anomalies.