Two-way Causal Relationship Research Articles

Ecological footprint in Bangladesh: Identifying the intensity of economic complexity and natural resources

Recent years have seen a spike in the number of academics utilizing the ecological footprint as a stand-in for environmental depletion because of its extensive nature and its ability to capture the worsening of the ecosystem. Thus, this article brings a new effort to analyze the effect of Bangladesh's economic complexity and natural resources on its ecological footprint over a long period, from 1995 to 2018. Using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, this paper suggests that a more complex economy has a significantly positive effect on ecological footprint over the long term. If the economy is simplified, it has less impact on the environment. For Bangladesh, an increase in economic complexity of 1 unit leads to an ecological footprint increase of 0.13 units, while a drop in economic complexity of 1% causes an ecological footprint decrease of 0.41%. Results also demonstrate that both positive and negative changes in natural resources contribute to rises in environmental quality in Bangladesh, which negatively influences the country's ecological footprint. Quantitatively, a 1% increase in natural resources reduces the ecological footprint by 0.14%, whereas a 1% decrease in resources has the opposite effect, reducing it by 0.59%. In addition, an asymmetric Granger causality test confirms the existence of a unidirectional causal link from ecological footprint to a positive partial sum of natural resources and from a negative partial sum of natural resources to ecological footprint. Finally, the findings point to a two-way causal relationship between the size of an economy's ecological footprint and the complexity of its economy. Policymakers should boost technological advances and lessen operational costs by adopting an innovative Research and development framework and devoting more cash to natural resource policies that promote an adaptable ecological footprint.

Analisis Kasualitas Indikator Makro Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Provinsi Banten Tahun 2017-2021

Community welfare is the main goal of economic development. Concrete efforts made by the Provincial Government of Banten continue to be made to improve welfare in the region. This study aims to determine the short-term relationship and long-term variables of community welfare indicators between districts/cities in Banten Province in 2017-2021. This type of research is quantitative with a descriptive approach, in which the research is systematically arranged with numbers processed from the results of secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bappeda, and Bappenas. Finally, this data measurement uses the Vector error correction model (VECM) method with test stages: (1) Stationarity Test, (2) Stability Test, (3) Optimum Lag Test, (4) Cointegration Test, (5) Granger Duration Test, and (6) VECM Estimation. The results of this study are (1) All data on the variables of this study are stationary at the 1st Difference level, (2) There is a short-term and long-term relationship between variables in this study characterized by cointegration, (3) There is a one-way causal relationship between Education and poverty, (4) There is a one-way causal relationship between Education and HDI, (5) There is a two-way causal relationship between Poverty and Unemployment, (6) There is a one-way causal relationship between Poverty and HDI, (7) There is no causal relationship between Unemployment and HDI, (8) Finally, measurement of indicators that are relevant to people's welfare.

Relationship of banking sector and environmental performance in Turkey

Purpose- With the global financial crisis in 2008, financial institutions have brought up the importance of the evaluation of the relationship between the environment and financial performance and its role in its development. In particular, examining the effects of environmental policies on the factors such as financial development, economic growth and financial performance is among the research subjects of researchers. In this respect, the aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the financial performance of the banking sector and environmental performance in Turkey. Methodology- While examining the effect of environmental performance on the financial performance of the banking sector, annual data for the period between 1990-2019 have been used, and short- and long-term relationships between the variables have been established by the ARDL bound test and the causality relationship has been established by the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Return on assets (ROA) has been used as the financial performance indicator of the banking sector and carbon dioxide emission (CO2) as the environmental performance indicator in the study. In addition, deposits, loans and liquid assets have been used as control variables in the study. Findings- In the model established with the ARDL cointegration test in the study, it has been first investigated whether the variables are cointegrated in the long-term, and it has been concluded that the variables are cointegrated in the long-term. In the established ARDL model, it has been determined that carbon dioxide emissions have a positive effect on the financial performance of the banking sector in the long-term, but not in the short-term. In addition, it has been determined that deposits and liquid assets, the control variables, have a positive effect on financial performance both in the short- and long-term, while loans do not have any effect. The findings from the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test reveal a one-way positive causality relationship from carbon dioxide emissions and deposits to banking financial performance. Moreover, while a positive two-way causality relationship has been established between financial performance and liquid assets, no causality relationship has been found with loans. Conclusion- The results of the cointegration test and the causality test confirm each other. The findings show that an increase in CO2 emissions will lead a positive effect on the financial performance of banks. Consequently, it is thought that developing countries such as Turkey are increasingly addicted to non-renewable energy consumption and adopt a more flexible environmental policy and so that they provide a higher financial performance. With this result, the opinion that the Pollution Paradise hypothesis is valid for Turkey is supported. Keywords: Financial performance, environmental performance, ARDL, Toda-Yamamoto JEL Codes: C32, G21, O13

ANALISIS HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS PENGANGGURAN, INFLASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA (DATA TIME SERIES 2010-2019)

The purpose of this study is to determine the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth in Indonesia for the 2010-2019 period. The analytical method used in this study is quantitative using the VAR test with the Granger causality test method. The data collection technique used is secondary data obtained from the publication of the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency. Processing data in this study using the program views. The results show that there is a two-way causality relationship between movement and economic growth, then there is a one-way causality relationship between inflation and economic growth where only inflation affects economic growth, then there is a one-way causality relationship between inflation and inflation where only inflation has an effect. significant to economic growth.

Do Not Be Anticlimactic: Farmers’ Behavior in the Sustainable Application of Green Agricultural Technology—A Perceived Value and Government Support Perspective

The production mode of “high input, high yield and high waste” in the agricultural system poses a serious threat to the environment and the quality of agricultural products. Accelerating the adoption of green agricultural technology (GAT) by farmers is an emergency measure. However, according to microsurvey data, many farmers give up GAT within a year after adopting it. The implementation of this measure has been anticlimactic. Based on a survey of 1138 kiwi growers in Shaanxi Province, China, this paper builds a theoretical model and conducts empirical exercises to gain insight into the effects of perceived value, government support and their interaction with kiwi growers’ sustainable application of GAT. We find that perceived value and government support have a significant impact on the sustainable application of GAT. Government support plays a moderating role in the influence of perceived value on the sustainable application of GAT. Furthermore, in order to overcome the potential endogeneity problem caused by the two-way causal relationship between subjective variables, “owning a smartphone” was selected as the instrumental variable. The 2SLS model was used for endogeneity analysis, and the OLS model was used for the robustness test. This paper discusses the relevant theories and policy implications of environmental management.

Research on the Impact of SSE 50 Index Futures on the Volatility of the Target Stock Market

To specifically analyze the impact of SSE 50 stock index futures on the volatility of the underlying stock market, the daily closing price of China's SSE 50 index and daily closing price of SSE 50 stock index futures data from 2008-2022 are selected as samples, and the GARCH model, Granger causality test, and DCC-GARCH model are used for empirical analysis in conjunction with the launch time of SSE 50 stock index futures. It is found that: the launch of SSE 50 stock index futures intensifies the volatility of the spot market in the short run, but suppresses the volatility of the spot market in the long run, and suppresses the risk of the stock market to a certain extent; there is a two-way causal relationship between the two, and the two markets have maintained a high positive correlation since the launch of SSE 50 stock index futures, and there is a volatility spillover effect.

Analysis and Research on Causality between Carbon Emission and Structural Optimization Based on Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality Test

Although the tourism industry is booming, its scale imbalance, structural imbalance and inefficient allocation of resources have hindered the realization of the high-quality development goals of the regional tourism industry. Therefore, it is very important to optimize the tourism industry structure. This paper uses linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to study the relationship between ’ tourism industrial structure optimization ’ and ’ carbon dioxide emissions ’ in 31 provinces in China. The results show that : ( 1 ) There is a nonlinear Granger two-way causal relationship between ’ tourism industrial structure optimization ’ and ’ carbon dioxide emissions ’. ( 2 ) With the acceleration of the upgrading and rationalization of the tourism industry structure, structural optimization and adjustment will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, reducing carbon emissions can also promote the upgrading and rationalization of the tourism industry structure.

Investigating the Market Linkages between Cryptocurrencies and Conventional Assets

Many investors include cryptocurrencies as potential investment tools in their portfolios. Previous studies have mostly analyzed Bitcoin regarding its hedge and safe haven features. Although the cryptocurrency market has expanded far beyond Bitcoin, few studies have examined the interaction among all other cryptocurrencies and conventional financial assets. For this purpose, as the dependent variable, we included the cryptocurrency index to represent the cryptocurrency market, whereas international stocks, bonds, United States (US) dollars, gold, and commodities as independent variables in the analysis. The interactions among the variables were analyzed using the Granger causality tests. The analysis results revealed a two-way causality relationship between the cryptocurrency market and the bond markets, indicating that the cryptocurrency index can be used to predict bond prices and vice versa.

Empirical analysis into the nexus between energy consumption, economic growth, and natural resources in D-8 bloc: evidence from panel causality analysis.

THe importance of the impact of natural resources on economic growth is an important issue with a long history in the energy and environment literature. It is seen that the studies conducted in this field are generally shaped by the "resource curse hypothesis," a hypothesis that highlights the trade-off between economic growth and resource abundance in the growth literature. However, the extant literature have presented inconclusive results. This study aims to examine the direction of causality between capital, energy use, energy imports, exchange rate, natural resources, and per capita income in countries that are rich in natural resources and consist of developing countries (D-8). In this context, first of all, the existence of CD test was determined, and then the stationarity of the variables was determined with the CADF unit root test. Then, whether the slope coefficients of the variables were homogeneous or not, it was decided that they were heterogeneous. Finally, the direction of causality between the variables was examined with the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test applied to heterogeneous panels. The empirical analysis results show a unidirectional causal relationship from capital to GDP per capita and from GDP per capita to energy use. In addition, while a two-way causality relationship was determined between the exchange rate and GDP per capita, no causal relationship was found between energy imports, natural resources, and per capita income. These results have macroeconomic implications and spillover effects on the energy mix of D-8 economies. In addition, no causal relationship was found between natural resources and GDP per capita in this country group and within the scope of the analysis period. Policy recommendations are highlighted in the conclusion.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Projects: A Study of Key Performance Indicators in Terms of DeFi Protocols’ Valuations

Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols use blockchain-based tools to mimic banking, investment and trading solutions and provide a viable framework that creates incentives and conditions for the development of an alternative financial services market. In this respect, they can be seen as alternative financial vehicles that mitigate portfolio risk, which is particularly important at a time of increasing uncertainty in financial markets. In particular, some DeFi protocols offer an automated, low-risk way to generate returns through a “delta-neutral” trading strategy that reduces volatility. The main financial operations of DeFi protocols are implemented using appropriate algorithms, but unlike traditional finance, where issues of value and valuation are commonplace, DeFis lack a similar value-based analysis. The aim of this study is to evaluate relevant DeFi performance metrics related to the valuations of these protocols through a thorough analysis based on various scientific methods and to show what influences the valuations of these protocols. More specifically, the study identifies how DeFi protocol valuations depend on the total value locked and other performance variables, such as protocol revenue, total revenue, gross merchandise volume and inflation factor, and assesses these relationships. The study analyzes the valuations of 30 selected protocols representing three different classes of DeFi (i.e., decentralized exchanges, lending protocols and asset management) in relation to their respective performance measures. The analysis presented in the article is quantitative in nature and relies on Granger causality tests as well as the results of a fixed effects panel regression model. The results show that the valuations of DeFi protocols depend to some extent on the performance measures of these protocols under study, although the magnitude of the relationships and their directions differ for the different variables. The Granger causality test could not confirm that future DeFi protocol valuations can be effectively predicted by the TVLs of these protocols, while other directions of causality (one-way and two-way) were confirmed, e.g., a two-way causal relationship between DeFi protocol valuations and gross merchandise volume, which turned out to be the only variable that Granger-causes future DeFi protocol valuations.

Working from Home as a Catalyst for Urban Regeneration

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, working from home has become normalised and is likely to continue to gather pace. The adjustment in daytime population that this creates has implications for urban planning, as it can drive greater levels of localization and less car-dependent cities. In this paper, we describe how this shift changes urban daytime population density, a significant predictor of most measures of amenity, walkability, and liveability. First, we define a method for mapping access to amenity, applied to two cities: Melbourne and Sydney. Secondly, we analyse the two-way causal relationship between population density and amenity based on bivariate spatial mapping. Thirdly, we provide a method for estimating changes in daytime populations. Finally, the article provides a taxonomy of telework regeneration potential for different parts of the city based on the level of amenity and expected changes in daytime population (average changes in high job-density areas −14%, CBDs −30%, and +54% in residential areas). We argue that, if used as a catalyst within strategic planning, and for urban regeneration, increases could create higher levels of amenity in suburban areas, which can lead to improved sustainability outcomes, specifically greater levels of walkability, liveability, and reduced car dependence. We have calculated that opportunity areas account for 89% of the greater urban area and cover 49% of the population, which may well grow as the WFH trend continues. As such, and in conclusion, we outline a set of site-specific opportunities and challenges relevant to urban planners that aim for urban regeneration.

Analisis Hubungan Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan Ekspor Indonesia ke china dengan pendekatan kausalitas Granger

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship between economic growth and the value of Indonesia's exports to China, the type of data used in this study is secondary data with an annual time period from 1995 to 2020, the analytical tool used in this study is the Granger causality test. Based on the results of the Granger causality test, it shows that there is no unidirectional or two-way relationship between economic growth and exports to China, so it can be concluded that economic growth and exports to China do not have a unidirectional or two-way causal relationship.

The Relatıonshıp Between Partıcıpatıon Insurance and Economıc Growth and Consumer Confıdence Index

Sigorta, bireyleri ve varlıkları muhtemel risklerden ve bu risklerin olumsuz ekonomik etkilerinden korumaktadır. Konvansiyonel sigortacılıkta yer alan mevcut sistem; faiz, kumar ve garar gibi uygulamaların yer aldığı bir sigortacılık türüdür. Bu uygulamaların dışında, kaynağını İslami prensiplerden alan sigortacılık sistemi ise katılım sigortacılığıdır. Bu çalışmada, katılım sigortacılığı hakkında genel bilgilere yer verilmiş ve katılım sigortacılığı ile ekonomik büyüme ve tüketici güven endeksi arasındaki ilişki Türkiye özelinde ele alınmıştır. Çalışmanın örneklemini 2009Q4–2022Q1 dönemini kapsayan 50 gözlem oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada, katılım sigortacılığı ile ekonomik büyüme ve tüketici güven endeksi arasındaki ilişki VAR ve Granger Nedensellik Testi ile araştırılmıştır. Analiz neticesinde elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren katılım sigortacılığı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisi bulunurken tüketici güven endeksi ile herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır. Çalışmada ortaya çıkan sonuçlar, teorik çalışmalarla uyumlu ve daha önce yapılan ampirik çalışmaların sonuçlarıyla örtüşmektedir. Bu bağlamda, katılım sigortacılığının büyümesinin ülke ekonomisinin de büyümesi anlamına geleceğinden kamu otoritesinin sektörün planlı bir şekilde büyümesinde daha etkin rol alması beklenilmektedir.

IMPLEMENTASI MODEL PANEL VAR PADA HUBUNGAN INFLASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR

This study aims to determine the causality relationship between the growth of the money supply (JUB) and inflation. The data used is panel data from 6 ASEAN countries in the 2009-2020 period. The analysis used is the Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) model. The results showed a two-way causality relationship between the inflation rate and the growth of the money supply. The increase in inflation will reduce the growth of the money supply. Conversely an increase in the money supply will increase inflation. The government should keep these two macro variables balanced through existing fiscal and monetary instruments, for example with interest rate policy and price control, especially related to the price of staples and fuel

Analisis Kausalitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pendapatan Asli Daerah Provinsi Bali Tahun 2000-2019

Regional Original Income (PAD) and economic growth are important economic variables in a region. Economic growth in the long term can be defined as the process of increasing output per capita. This understanding contains three aspects, namely dynamic aspects, aspects of total output growth and population growth, and aspects of independence. The independence of a region is seen from the regional original income every year. This study aims to observe the causality pattern between economic growth and local revenue in Bali Province during the period 2000-2019 by using the Error Correction Model (ECM) causality test. The results of this study show that in Bali Province there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth and local revenue. If economic growth increases it will have an impact on increasing regional original income, on the contrary if regional original income increases it will have an impact on increasing economic growth in the province of Bali.

Trade Data Falsification and Informal Capita Movement: A Study of Bangladesh with Major Asian Trade Partners

The imposition of restrictive trade policies and consequent fabrication of foreign trade statistics acts as hindrance for effective policy formulations in the developing countries. This article presents the trade misreporting scenario of Bangladesh in relation to major Asian trade partner countries (China, India and Singapore) between 1973 and 2018 and examines the possibilities of informal capital movements across borders. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, we first build partner-level exercise, followed by a combined panel, and find that spot and forward exchange rates, custom duties and real interest rate differences between foreign and home largely affect trade misreporting rates. Interestingly, we also find that the values of past import under-invoicing might also lead to export under-invoicing and vice versa, a two-way causal relationship. JEL Codes: F14, F68, C10, C52

The Relationship between Trade Liberalization, Financial Development and Carbon Dioxide Emission—An Empirical Analysis

In recent years, the global economy has become more closely related among countries, and people’s pursuit of economic growth has caused the destruction of the environment. This paper selected panel data from 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2020 to investigate the dynamic relationship between trade liberalization, financial development and carbon dioxide emissions by constructing a PVAR model. We also consider technology as an important variable for studying the effect on carbon dioxide emissions. We draw the following conclusions. First, financial development promotes carbon dioxide emissions, while trade liberalization has no significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions. Second, China’s trade liberalization promotes financial development, which has limited support for international trade. Third, there is a two-way causal relationship between financial development and carbon dioxide emissions, and there is also a two-way causal relationship between trade liberalization and financial development. Finally, there is a significant inverted “U” curve relationship between trade liberalization and innovation efficiency, environmental regulation and innovation. According to the results, we believe that openness to trade impacts emissions of carbon dioxide, opening a new function path: namely, trade openness and financial development result in high carbon dioxide emissions; consequently, China has relied on this process in the development of their financial system.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey

The COVID-19 pandemic, a new type of coronavirus that the world faced, broke out at the end of 2019 causing numerous impacts on all countries. Particularly the European Union (EU) countries were notably affected by COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and stringency policies. Furthermore, although Turkey was successful in combating many areas of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the EU countries, its international trade was affected. This paper empirically investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on selected EU countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Czechia) and Turkey’s exports with monthly panel data analyses over the March 2020–December 2021 period. The findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic had negative impacts on exports in the EU and Turkey. For example, a 1% increase in COVID-19 stringency reduced exports by 0.102%, and a 1% increase in total COVID-19 cases caused a decline in exports of 1.620%. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test results show a two-way causality relationship between COVID-19 cases and export levels. In addition, unidirectional causality linkage exists from the COVID-19 stringency index. Therefore, causality test results confirm an impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports during the stringency measures and lockdowns.

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Inflation, Foreign Trade, and Economic Growth for Türkiye

Ülkeler arasında ticaretin serbestleşmesi ile birlikte uluslararası ticaret büyük oranda artmış ve dış ticaret hacmindeki artış, ülke ekonomileri üzerinde olumlu veya olumsuz etkilerin ortaya çıkmasına neden olmuştur. Bu bağlamda ülkelerin izlemiş oldukları dış ticaret politikalarının ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerinde yarattığı etkiler iktisat yazınında tartışılan önemli konular arasına girmiştir. Dış ticaret, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler, politika yapıcılar tarafından makroekonomik sorunlara çözüm yolları üretilmesi bakımından da araştırmacıların ilgisini çekmektedir. 
 Enflasyon, dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini Türkiye için ekonometrik olarak analiz eden bu çalışmada, 2003-2021 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. Değişkenlere öncelikle birim kök testi uygulanarak durağanlık dereceleri (dₘₐₓ) tespit edilmiş olup ardından VAR modeli yardımıyla en uygun gecikme uzunluğu (p+dₘₐₓ) değeri saptanmıştır. (p+dₘₐₓ) değeri dikkate alınarak VAR modeli tekrar tahmin edilmiş ve tanılayıcı testler ile modelin varsayımları karşılayıp karşılamadığı araştırılmıştır Son olarak Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizinden yararlanarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin mevcut olup olmadığı ve yönü tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre; dış ticaret hadleri ile ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Ancak dış ticaret hadleri ile enflasyon arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca ekonomik büyümeden enflasyona doğru herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilemese de enflasyondan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu bulgusu, söz konusu analiz sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgular arasındadır.

Micro input factors affecting industrial energy efficiency in Hebei Province based on granger causal relation test model

Reasonably allocating the micro factor investment in the industry and trying to improve the energy efficiency are very important for the green development of industrial economy in Hebei Province, so as to the achievement of its double carbon target. This paper takes industrial energy consumption, assets and labor in Hebei Province as micro-input elements. Based on the panel data of 34 industrial industries in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2016, we identify the correlation of micro-input factors in different industries and conduct Granger causality test. The study shows that: (1) About half of the industry’s combined energy consumption is correlated with the number of employees and assets; About two-thirds of the industry’s asset workers are relevant; (2) There is a two-way causal relationship between the total energy consumption and assets of most industries and the annual average number of employees. (3) The rational allocation of capital, labor and energy consumption depends on the deepening reform of the factor market. The high energy consumption industry should actively improve and innovate the energy technology in this process to realize the coordinated promotion of energy saving and carbon reduction, and thus to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry steadily.