Twentieth-century Warming Research Articles

Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature

Abstract A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship between twentieth-century warming and twenty-first-century warming. This relationship is established from a large ensemble of energy balance models. By varying the energy balance model parameters an estimate is made of the error associated with using the linear relationship in forecasts of twentieth-century global mean temperature. Including this error has very little impact on the forecasts. There is a 50% chance that the global mean temperature change between 1995 and 2035 will be greater than 1.5 K for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI scenario. Under SRES B2 the same threshold is not exceeded until 2055. These results should be relatively robust to model developments for a given radiative forcing history.

Uncertainty in climate-sensitivity estimates (Reply)

Despite Schneider's claim1, the method we use to estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity from multiple proxy-based reconstructions of the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere2 does account for uncertainty in reconstructions, including that associated with non-temperature and sampling error in the reconstruction. We arrive at a tighter constraint on climate sensitivity not by neglecting uncertainties, but by combining our wide-tailed proxy-based estimate with an independent estimate of climate sensitivity based on twentieth-century warming.

Detection of Human Influence on a New, Validated 1500-Year Temperature Reconstruction

Abstract Climate records over the last millennium place the twentieth-century warming in a longer historical context. Reconstructions of millennial temperatures show a wide range of variability, raising questions about the reliability of currently available reconstruction techniques and the uniqueness of late-twentieth-century warming. A calibration method is suggested that avoids the loss of low-frequency variance. A new reconstruction using this method shows substantial variability over the last 1500 yr. This record is consistent with independent temperature change estimates from borehole geothermal records, compared over the same spatial and temporal domain. The record is also broadly consistent with other recent reconstructions that attempt to fully recover low-frequency climate variability in their central estimate. High variability in reconstructions does not hamper the detection of greenhouse gas–induced climate change, since a substantial fraction of the variance in these reconstructions from the beginning of the analysis in the late thirteenth century to the end of the records can be attributed to external forcing. Results from a detection and attribution analysis show that greenhouse warming is detectable in all analyzed high-variance reconstructions (with the possible exception of one ending in 1925), and that about a third of the warming in the first half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The estimated magnitude of the anthropogenic signal is consistent with most of the warming in the second half of the twentieth century being anthropogenic.

Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature

Abstract The estimated range of climate sensitivity has remained unchanged for decades, resulting in large uncertainties in long-term projections of future climate under increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Here the multi-thousand-member ensemble of climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net project and a neural network are used to establish a relation between climate sensitivity and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in regional temperature. Most models with high sensitivities are found to overestimate the seasonal cycle compared to observations. A probability density function for climate sensitivity is then calculated from the present-day seasonal cycle in reanalysis and instrumental datasets. Subject to a number of assumptions on the models and datasets used, it is found that climate sensitivity is very unlikely (5% probability) to be either below 1.5–2 K or above about 5–6.5 K, with the best agreement found for sensitivities between 3 and 3.5 K. This range is narrower than most probabilistic estimates derived from the observed twentieth-century warming. The current generation of general circulation models are within that range but do not sample the highest values.

Can CGCMs Simulate the Twentieth-Century “Warming Hole” in the Central United States?

Abstract The observed lack of twentieth-century warming in the central United States (CUS), denoted here as the “warming hole,” was examined in 55 simulations driven by external historical forcings and in 19 preindustrial control (unforced) simulations from 18 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). Twentieth-century CUS trends were positive for the great majority of simulations, but were negative, as observed, for seven simulations. Only a few simulations exhibited the observed rapid rate of warming (cooling) during 1901–40 (1940–79). Those models with multiple runs (identical forcing but different initial conditions) showed considerable intramodel variability with trends varying by up to 1.8°C century−1, suggesting that internal dynamic variability played a major role at the regional scale. The wide range of trend outcomes, particularly for those models with multiple runs, and the small number of simulations similar to observations in both the forced and unforced experiments suggest that the warming hole is not a robust response of contemporary CGCMs to the estimated external forcings. A more likely explanation based on these models is that the observed warming hole involves external forcings combined with internal dynamic variability that is much larger than typically simulated. The observed CUS temperature variations are positively correlated with North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and both NA SSTs and CUS temperature are negatively correlated with central equatorial Pacific (CEP) SSTs. Most models simulate rather well the connection between CUS temperature and NA SSTs. However, the teleconnections between NA and CEP SSTS and between CEP SSTs and CUS temperature are poorly simulated and the models produce substantially less NA SST variability than observed, perhaps hampering their ability to reproduce the warming hole.

Observational Constraints on Past Attributable Warming and Predictions of Future Global Warming

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much (or too little) greenhouse warming by too much (or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater (at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr−1 increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century−1 (5–95 percentiles).

Enhanced multidecadal climate variability in the seventeenth century from coral isotope records in the western Indian Ocean

The slowly growing coral Diploastreaheliopora affords a novel opportunity to obtain multicentury records of paleoclimate, including details of the interannual rhythms associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. We examine climate variability in an ENSO‐teleconnected region using new oxygen isotope records from D. heliopora, spanning most of the twentieth (1896–1998) and seventeenth (1622–1722) centuries, from the Mafia archipelago, Tanzania. The modern record demonstrates coherency with relevant instrumental and proxy time series, documents twentieth century warming, and displays significant power at ENSO periodicities. The seventeenth century record lacks any trend, exhibits interannual variance comparable to the modern record, and displays a pronounced interdecadal signal not evident in the twentieth century that correlates with other tropical and hemispheric climate records. We find no clear evidence of solar irradiance influence on interannual variability in the western Indian Ocean during these intervals, although the mean sea surface temperature appears to vary inversely with insolation.

Modeling physical and biogeochemical controls over carbon accumulation in a boreal forest soil

Boreal soils are important to the global C cycle owing to large C stocks, repeated disturbance from fire, and the potential for permafrost thaw to expose previously stable, buried C. To evaluate the primary mechanisms responsible for both short‐ and long‐term C accumulation in boreal soils, we developed a multi‐isotope (12, 14C) soil C model with dynamic soil layers that develop through time as soil organic matter burns and reaccumulates. We then evaluated the mechanisms that control organic matter turnover in boreal regions including carbon input rates, substrate recalcitrance, soil moisture and temperature, and the presence of historical permafrost to assess the importance of these factors in boreal C accumulation. Results indicate that total C accumulation is controlled by the rate of carbon input, decomposition rates, and the presence of historical permafrost. However, unlike more temperate ecosystems, one of the key mechanisms involved in C preservation in boreal soils examined here is the cooling of subsurface soil layers as soil depth increases rather than increasing recalcitrance in subsurface soils. The propagation of the 14C bomb spike into soils also illustrates the importance of historical permafrost and twentieth century warming in contemporary boreal soil respiration fluxes. Both 14C and total C simulation data also strongly suggest that boreal SOM need not be recalcitrant to accumulate; the strong role of soil temperature controls on boreal C accumulation at our modeling test site in Manitoba, Canada, indicates that carbon in the deep organic soil horizons is probably relatively labile and thus subject to perturbations that result from changing climatic conditions in the future.

Assessment of Twentieth-Century Regional Surface Temperature Trends Using the GFDL CM2 Coupled Models

Abstract Historical climate simulations of the period 1861–2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfates, black and organic carbon, volcanic aerosols, solar flux, and land cover. Indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on clouds and precipitation processes are not included. Ensembles of size 3 (CM2.0) and 5 (CM2.1) with all forcings are analyzed, along with smaller ensembles of natural-only and anthropogenic-only forcing, and multicentury control runs with no external forcing. Observed warming trends on the global scale and in many regions are simulated more realistically in the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs than in experiments using natural-only forcing or no external forcing. In the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs, the model shows some tendency for too much twentieth-century warming in lower latitudes and too little warming in higher latitudes. Differences in Arctic Oscillation behavior between models and observations contribute substantially to an underprediction of the observed warming over northern Asia. In the all-forcing and natural-only forcing runs, a temporary global cooling in the models during the 1880s not evident in the observed temperature records is volcanically forced. El Niño interactions complicate comparisons of observed and simulated temperature records for the El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions during the early 1980s and early 1990s. The simulations support previous findings that twentieth-century global warming has resulted from a combination of natural and anthropogenic forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being the dominant cause of the pronounced late-twentieth-century warming. The regional results provide evidence for an emergent anthropogenic warming signal over many, if not most, regions of the globe. The warming signal has emerged rather monotonically in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool during the past half-century. The tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and the tropical eastern Pacific are examples of regions where the anthropogenic warming signal now appears to be emerging from a background of more substantial multidecadal variability.

The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium

Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role.

On the long‐term context for late twentieth century warming

Previous tree‐ring–based Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions portray a varying amplitude range between the “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP), “Little Ice Age” (LIA) and present. We describe a new reconstruction, developed using largely different methodologies and additional new data compared to previous efforts. Unlike earlier studies, we quantify differences between more traditional (STD) and Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) methodologies, concluding that RCS is superior for retention of low‐frequency trends. Continental North American versus Eurasian RCS series developed prior to merging to the hemispheric scale cohere surprisingly well, suggesting common forcing, although there are notable deviations (e.g., fifteenth to sixteenth century). Results indicate clear MWP (warm), LIA (cool), and recent (warm) episodes. Direct interpretation of the RCS reconstruction suggests that MWP temperatures were nearly 0.7°C cooler than in the late twentieth century, with an amplitude difference of 1.14°C from the coldest (1600–1609) to warmest (1937–1946) decades. However, we advise caution with this analysis. Although we conclude, as found elsewhere, that recent warming has been substantial relative to natural fluctuations of the past millennium, we also note that owing to the spatially heterogeneous nature of the MWP, and its different timing within different regions, present palaeoclimatic methodologies will likely “flatten out” estimates for this period relative to twentieth century warming, which expresses a more homogenous global “fingerprint.” Therefore we stress that presently available paleoclimatic reconstructions are inadequate for making specific inferences, at hemispheric scales, about MWP warmth relative to the present anthropogenic period and that such comparisons can only still be made at the local/regional scale.

Paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records from the Chagos Archipelago: Late twentieth century warming affects rainfall variability in the tropical Indian Ocean

Research Article| December 01, 2006 Paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records from the Chagos Archipelago: Late twentieth century warming affects rainfall variability in the tropical Indian Ocean Miriam Pfeiffer; Miriam Pfeiffer 1Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Wischhofstrasse 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Oliver Timm; Oliver Timm 2International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, POST Building 413, 1680 East West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Wolf-Christian Dullo; Wolf-Christian Dullo 3Leibniz Institut für Meereswissenschaften, IFM-GEOMAR, Wischhofstrasse 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Dieter Garbe-Schönberg Dieter Garbe-Schönberg 4Institut für Geowissenschaften, Ludewig-Meyn-Strasse 10, 24118 Kiel, Germany Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Geology (2006) 34 (12): 1069–1072. https://doi.org/10.1130/G23162A.1 Article history received: 04 Jul 2006 rev-recd: 26 Jul 2006 accepted: 27 Jul 2006 first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Miriam Pfeiffer, Oliver Timm, Wolf-Christian Dullo, Dieter Garbe-Schönberg; Paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records from the Chagos Archipelago: Late twentieth century warming affects rainfall variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geology 2006;; 34 (12): 1069–1072. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G23162A.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract Understanding the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a significant challenge for climate models, particularly for the tropics. Here we present a new monthly coral Sr/Ca record from the tropical Indian Ocean (Chagos Archipelago) that extends from 1950 to 1995. The coral Sr/Ca ratio shows a stationary relationship with local SST, and documents a warming of 0.3 °C since 1950. Previous work has shown that the δ18O values measured in the same coral core provide a proxy record of precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean. The coral δ18O record shows a nonstationary relationship with local SST, and a correlation between δ18O and SST only emerges in the 1970s. It was proposed that this nonstationary behavior is due to an increase in mean SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean. During the 1970s, SSTs reached a critical threshold (28.5 °C) beyond which small SST anomalies can have a significant impact on atmospheric convection. As a result, the covariance between SST and precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean increased. Our new Sr/Ca data confirm that the warming of the Indian Ocean during the late twentieth century affects atmospheric convection and rainfall variability. Moreover, our proxy data show that the relationship between SST and precipitation is nonlinear and characterized by threshold behavior. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

Raising the ante on the climate debate

Almost alone in the world of science, there is a substantial U.S. effort to discredit some basic conclusions in the global warming debate. There are always legitimate reasons to query scientific conclusions, but the tenor of the debate has taken on a flavor of its own. Since the epicenter of the dispute is in Washington, D.C., the suspicion arises that not all of the discussion is business‐as‐usual scientific disagreement.The most recent example of the heightening level of the dispute involves a 23 June 2005 letter from U.S. Rep. Joe Barton (R‐Tex.), chair of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, to Michael Mann (University of Virginia) and his collaborators, Raymond Bradley (University of Massachusetts) and Malcolm Hughes (University of Arizona). The dispute centers on the much discussed “hockey stick” reconstruction of Mann et al. [1998,1999]. In those reconstructions, the twentieth century warming stands well above Northern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations of the last 1000 years. Other investigators, using some of the same data but with different approaches, have also reconstructed temperatures of the last millennium (see Mann et al. [2003] for a summary discussion). In general, there is more agreement than disagreement among the various reconstructions. The differences stem mainly from the scaling of the oscillations, but in all cases the late twentieth century is anomalous in a millennial context.

Summer temperature variability in central scandinavia during the last 3600 years

ABSTRACT. A Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree‐ring width chronology from Jämtland, in the central Scandinavian Mountains, built from living and sub‐fossil wood, covering the period 1632 BC to AD 2002, with a minor gap during AD 887–907, is presented. This is the first multi‐millennial tree‐ring chronology from the central parts of Fennoscandia. Pine growth in this tree line environment is mainly limited by summer temperatures, and hence the record can be viewed as a temperature proxy. Using the regional curve standardization (RCS) technique, pine‐growth variability on short and long time scales was retained and subsequently summer (June–August) temperatures were reconstructed yielding information on temperature variability during the last 3600 years. Several periods with anomalously warm or cold summers were found: 450–550 BC (warm), AD 300–400 (cold), AD 900–1000 (the Medieval Warm Period, warm) and AD 1550–1900 (Little Ice Age, cold). The coldest period was encountered in the fourth century AD and the warmest period 450 to 550 BC. However, the magnitude of these anomalies is uncertain since the replication of trees in the Jämtland record is low during those periods. The twentieth century warming does not stand out as an anomalous feature in the last 3600 years. Two multi‐millennial tree‐ring chronologies from Swedish and Finnish Lapland, which have previously been used as summer temperature proxies, agree well with the Jämtland record, indicating that the latter is a good proxy of local, but also regional, summer temperature variability.

Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests

Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, low-severity fires maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about ad 1500 and ad 1900 was also generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate. We find that colder periods experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth. Warmer periods experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debris-flow events that comprise a large component of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires.

Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate

Ensemble simulations are run with a global coupled climate model employing five forcing agents that influence the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature during the twentieth century. Two are natural (volcanoes and solar) and the others are anthropogenic [e.g., greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone (stratospheric and tropospheric), and direct effect of sulfate aerosols]. In addition to the five individual forcing experiments, an additional eight sets are performed with the forcings in various combinations. The late-twentieth-century warming can only be reproduced in the model with anthropogenic forcing (mainly GHGs), while the early twentieth-century warming is mainly caused by natural forcing in the model (mainly solar). However, the signature of globally averaged temperature at any time in the twentieth century is a direct consequence of the sum of the forcings. The similarity of the response to the forcings on decadal and interannual time scales is tested by performing a principal component analysis of the 13 ensemble mean globally averaged temperature time series. A significant portion of the variance of the reconstructed time series can be retained in residual calculations compared to the original single and combined forcing runs. This demonstrates that the statistics of the variances for decadal and interannual time-scale variability in the forced simulations are similar to the response from a residual calculation. That is, the variance statistics of the response of globally averaged temperatures in the forced runs are additive since they can be reproduced in the responses calculated as a residual from other combined forcing runs.

Twentieth‐century temperature and precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcing

We present results from a series of ensemble integrations of a global coupled atmosphere‐ocean model for the period 1865–1997. Each ensemble consists of three integrations initialized from different points in a long‐running GFDL R30 coupled model control simulation. The first ensemble includes time‐varying forcing from greenhouse gases only. In the remaining three ensembles, forcings from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere are added progressively, such that the fourth ensemble uses all four of these forcings. The effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols are represented by changes in surface albedo, and the effects of volcanic aerosols are represented by latitude‐dependent perturbations in incident solar radiation. Comparisons with observations reveal that the addition of the natural forcings (solar and volcanic) improves the simulation of global multidecadal trends in temperature, precipitation, and ocean heat content. Solar and volcanic forcings are important contributors to early twentieth century warming. Volcanic forcing reduces the warming simulated for the late twentieth century. Interdecadal variations in global mean surface air temperature from the ensemble of experiments with all four forcings are very similar to observed variations during most of the twentieth century. The improved agreement of simulated and observed temperature trends when natural climate forcings are included supports the climatic importance of variations in radiative forcing during the twentieth century.

Human impact on the Irish landscape during the late Holocene inferred from palynological studies at three peatland sites

Pollen data covering the last 1200 years from a transect of three peatland sites across Ireland are reported. The data reveal reductions in woodland and increased anthropogenic activity over time. A decline in Corylus-type pollen at around AD 1750 was a dramatic and concurrent event at all three sites which coincided with more intensive land use. Multivariate data analysis reveals that prior to the Corylus-type decline distinct regional differences occurred between the sites, but that after it this regional variation was lost. It is concluded that more intense land use led to greater regional uniformity. Rising human population coincides with evidence for intense land use in the pollen data. The failure of the potato crop and the Great Famine of 1845 led to a population crash, but this had limited impact on the landscape. The imprint of human activity on the landscape over the last 1200 years appears to have overwhelmed any impacts that could be attributed solely to climatic change associated with the ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’, the ‘Little Ice Age’ or late twentieth-century warming.

Late Holocene environmental changes inferred from diatoms in a lake on the western Taimyr Peninsula, northern Russia

Changes in the diatom assemblages preserved in a sediment core taken from a small lake located north of arctic treeline on the western Taimyr Peninsula, Russia, were examined in order to investigate late Holocene (i.e., ca 5000 cal yr BP to present) climatic and environmental changes within the region. Early diatom assemblages were dominated by benthic Fragilaria taxa and indicate a transitional phase in the lake history, most likely reflecting lake development and environmental change associated with treeline retreat to the south of the study site. Concurrent with pollen and macrofossil evidence of a vegetation shift to shrub tundra in the catchment basin at ca 4200 cal yr BP, an increase in cold-water taxa, followed by little change in diatom assemblages until ca 2800 cal yr BP, suggests that conditions were relatively cool and stable at this time. The last ∼2000 years of the Middendorf Lake record have been marked by fluctuating limnological conditions, characterized by striking successional shifts between Fragilaria pinnata and Aulacoseira distans var. humilis. Recent conditions in Middendorf Lake indicate an increase in diatom taxa previously rare in the record, possibly associated with twentieth-century climatic warming. The Middendorf Lake record indicates that significant limnological change may occur in the absence of catchment vegetation shifts, suggesting late-Holocene decoupling of aquatic and terrestrial responses to climatic and hydrological change. Our study results represent one of the few paleoecological records currently available from northern Russia, and highlight the need for further development of calibration data sets from this region.

Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century

Ensemble experiments with a global coupled climate model are performed for the twentieth century with time-evolving solar, greenhouse gas, sulfate aerosol (direct effect), and ozone (tropospheric and stratospheric) forcing. Observed global warming in the twentieth century occurred in two periods, one in the early twentieth century from about the early 1900s to the 1940s, and one later in the century from, roughly, the late 1960s to the end of the century. The model's response requires the combination of solar and anthropogenic forcing to approximate the early twentieth-century warming, while the radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gases is dominant for the response in the late twentieth century, confirming previous studies. Of particular interest here is the model's amplification of solar forcing when this acts in combination with anthropogenic forcing. This difference is traced to the fact that solar forcing is more spatially heterogeneous (i.e., acting most strongly in areas where sunlight reaches the surface) while greenhouse gas forcing is more spatially uniform. Consequently, solar forcing is subject to coupled regional feedbacks involving the combination of temperature gradients, circulation regimes, and clouds. The magnitude of these feedbacks depends on the climate's base state. Over relatively cloud-free oceanic regions in the subtropics, the enhanced solar forcing produces greater evaporation. More moisture then converges into the precipitation convergence zones, intensifying the regional monsoon and Hadley and Walker circulations, causing cloud reductions over the subtropical ocean regions, and, hence, more solar input. An additional response to solar forcing in northern summer is an enhancement of the meridional temperature gradients due to greater solar forcing over land regions that contribute to stronger West African and South Asian monsoons. Since the greenhouse gases are more spatially uniform, such regional circulation feedbacks are not as strong. These regional responses are most evident when the solar forcing occurs in concert with increased greenhouse gas forcing. The net effect of enhanced solar forcing in the early twentieth century is to produce larger solar-induced increases of tropical precipitation when calculated as a residual than for early century solar-only forcing, even though the size of the imposed solar forcing is the same. As a consequence, overall precipitation increases in the early twentieth century in the Asian monsoon regions are greater than late century increases, qualitatively consistent with observed trends in all-India rainfall. Similar effects occur in West Africa, the tropical Pacific, and the Southern Ocean tropical convergence zones.