Turkey Syria Research Articles

Accurate Deformation Retrieval of the 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquakes Using Multi-Track InSAR Data and a Spatio-Temporal Correlation Analysis with the ICA Method

Multi-track synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) provides a good approach for the monitoring of long-term multi-dimensional earthquake deformation, including pre-, co-, and post-seismic data. However, the removal of atmospheric errors in both single- and multi-track InSAR data presents significant challenges. In this paper, a method of spatio-temporal correlation analysis using independent component analysis (ICA) is proposed, which can extract multi-track deformation components for the accurate retrieval of earthquake deformation time series. Sentinel-1 data covering the double earthquakes in Turkey and Syria in 2023 are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that co-seismic displacement in the east–west and up–down directions ranged from −114.7 cm to 82.8 cm and from −87.0 cm to 63.9 cm, respectively. Additionally, the deformation rates during the monitoring period ranged from −137.9 cm/year to 123.3 cm/year in the east–west direction and from −51.8 cm/year to 45.7 cm/year in the up–down direction. A comparative validation experiment was conducted using three GPS stations. Compared with the results of the original MSBAS method, the proposed method provides results that are smoother and closer to those of the GPS data, and the average optimization efficiency is 43.08% higher. The experiments demonstrated that the proposed method could provide accurate two-dimensional deformation time series for studying the pre-, co-, and post-earthquake events of the 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquakes.

Large-scale building damage assessment based on recurrent neural networks using SAR coherence time series: A case study of 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake

The Turkey–Syria earthquakes that occurred on February 6, 2023, have caused significant human casualties and economic damage. Emergency services require quick and accurate assessments of widespread building damage in affected areas. This can be facilitated by using remote sensing methods, specifically all-day and all-weather Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). In this study, we aimed to improve the detection of building anomalies in earthquake-affected areas using SAR images. To achieve this, we employed Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to train coherence time series and predict co-seismic coherence. This approach allowed us to generate a Damage Proxy Map (DPM) for building damage assessment. The results of our study indicated that the estimated proportion of building damage in Kahramanmaras was approximately 24.08%. These findings were consistent with the actual damage observed in the field. Moreover, when utilizing the mean and standard deviation of coherence time series, our method achieved higher accuracy (0.761) and a lower false alarm rate (0.136) compared to directly using coherence with only two views of SAR data. Overall, our study demonstrates that this method provides an accurate and reliable approach for post-earthquake building damage assessment.

Retrospective performance analysis of a ground shaking early warning system for the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake

Recently developed earthquake early warning systems rely on the idea of combining the measured ground motion and the source parameter estimate to issue an alert based on the ground shaking prediction at sites where high potential damage is expected. Here we apply a P-wave, shaking-forecast method that can track and alert in real-time the area where peak ground motion is expected to exceed a user-set threshold during the earthquake. The system performance in providing a fast and reliable warning during the Mw 7.8, February 6 Turkey–Syria earthquake is investigated by the real-time simulated playback of the near-source hundred accelerograms. With an instrumental intensity threshold IMM=IV\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${I}_{{MM}}={IV}$$\\end{document} an alert issued 10–20 s after the event origin, results in 95% of successful warning (positive and negative) and lead-times of 10–60 s within the potential damage zone. Setting a higher intensity threshold requires larger alert times (50–60 s) to achieve 90% of successful warning and overall shorter lead-times. Our simulation shows that the P-wave predicted, strong-shaking zone can be rapidly detected only 20 s after the mainshock nucleation. As the time increases, it well delineates the NE-SW bi-lateral rupture development as inferred by kinematic source models.

Disinformation and Fact-Checking in the Face of Natural Disasters: A Case Study on Turkey–Syria Earthquakes

Natural disasters linked to contexts of unpredictability and surprise generate a climate of uncertainty in the population, resulting in an exponential increase in disinformation. These are crisis situations that cause the management of public and governmental institutions to be questioned, diminish citizens’ trust in the media, and reinforce anonymity in social networks. New digital algorithms create a scenario plagued by fake news and levels of viralization of rumors never before contemplated. Our objective is to analyze the verification capacity of fact-checking agencies at X at times of information disorder, such as the Turkey–Syria earthquakes in 2023. We apply a mixed methodology of comparative content analysis to government, news agency, and IFCN accounts, generating a general sample (n = 46,747) that is then subjected to thematic categorization to create a specific sample (n = 564). The results indicate a low commitment to fact-checking on the part of official bodies and news agencies, as opposed to fact-checking agencies’ accurate handling of the facts. The lack of debate and engagement generated by digital audiences in the face of the discursive intentionality of disinformation is significant.

Evaluating the identification methods of permanent displacement derived from strong motion records: Case studies in the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake

AbstractOn February 6, 2023, the Republic of Turkey experienced a rare occurrence of two successive earthquakes, each with a magnitude exceeding 7.0. The Disaster and Emergency Management Agency (AFAD) swiftly shared the strong motion records, thereby enriching the global database of near‐fault strong motion records. Identification of permanent displacement is essential for effectively utilizing these records. In this study, we refined the permanent displacement identification method, which combines the Hermit interpolation baseline correction with flatness determination by incorporating a low‐pass filter. Following this, we compared four permanent displacement identification methods, including our improved approach. We applied these to the strong motion record of station 4404 and compared the results with the Global Positioning System coseismic displacement. At the same time, we used field investigation data to verify the effectiveness of our improved method, studying its applicability for both single‐wave packet and multiwave packet records. The conclusions are the following: the improved method provides a more reasonable and effective means of identifying permanent displacement. When the peak ground acceleration (PGA) exceeds 1 g, the permanent displacement identifications from the four methods differ significantly. The discrepancy in permanent displacements identified by the four methods in the horizontal direction is larger than that in the U−D direction. For the record with the largest PGA (station 4614), our improved method yields more reasonable results compared with other techniques. Furthermore, the choice of segmentation time nodes in the velocity time history significantly affects the identification of permanent displacement.

Investigating the sensitivity of losses to time-dependent components of seismic risk modeling

Conventional earthquake risk modeling involves several notable simplifications, which neglect: (1) the effects on seismicity of interactions between adjacent faults and the long-term elastic rebound behavior of faults; (2) short-term hazard increases associated with aftershocks; and (3) the accumulation of damage in assets due to the occurrence of multiple earthquakes in a short time window, without repairs. Several recent earthquake events (e.g. 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, USA; and 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes) have emphasized the need for risk models to account for the aforementioned short- and long-term time-dependent characteristics of earthquake risk. This study specifically investigates the sensitivity of monetary loss (i.e. a possible earthquake-risk-model output) to these time dependencies, for a case-study portfolio in Central Italy. The investigation is intended to provide important insights for the catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance industry. In addition to salient catastrophe risk insurance features, the end-to-end approach for time-dependent earthquake risk modeling used in this study incorporates recent updates in long-term time-dependent fault modeling, aftershock forecasting, and vulnerability modeling that accounts for damage accumulation. The sensitivity analysis approach presented may provide valuable guidance on the importance and appropriate treatment of time dependencies in regional (i.e. portfolio) earthquake risk models. We find that the long-term fault and aftershock occurrence models are the most crucial features of a time-dependent seismic risk model to constrain, at least for the monetary loss metrics examined in this study. Accounting for damage accumulation is also found to be important, if there is a high insurance deductible associated with portfolio assets.

Remote Sensing Nighttime Lights Reveal the Post-Earthquake Losses and Reconstruction Situations in Turkey–Syria Earthquake Areas

Remote Sensing Nighttime Lights Reveal the Post-Earthquake Losses and Reconstruction Situations in Turkey–Syria Earthquake Areas

The 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake Sequence: Ground-Motion and Local Site-Effect Analyses for Kahramanmaras City

The 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake Sequence: Ground-Motion and Local Site-Effect Analyses for Kahramanmaras City

Origins of the Tsunami Following the 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake

AbstractOn 6 February 2023, a local tsunami was recorded in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea following the Mw 7.7 Turkey–Syria inland strike‐slip earthquake. Due to the lack of underwater observation, the tsunami generation mechanism remains mysterious. To understand the source mechanisms, we analyzed the tsunami waveforms of four nearby tide gauges and located possible sources using a backward tsunami ray tracing approach. We then conducted forward numerical modelings for a range of possible source parameters. We show that there were probably two tsunami sources, inside and outside Iskenderun Bay, which may be related to thick coastal sediments. A source inside the Bay with a characteristic length of 7 km produced dominant periods of 10–30 min with negative initial motion, possibly generated by a landslide. Another source of 6 km length outside the Bay produced dominant periods of 2–10 min with positive initial motions, possibly related with liquefaction.

The Turkmen Factor in Turkey's Syria Policy

The Turkmen Factor in Turkey's Syria Policy

The Changes in Nighttime Lights Caused by the Turkey–Syria Earthquake Using NOAA-20 VIIRS Day/Night Band Data

The Turkey–Syria earthquake on 6 February 2023 resulted in losses such as casualties, road damage, and building collapses. We mapped and quantified the areas impacted by the earthquake at different distances and directions using NOAA-20 VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data. We then explored the relationship between the average changes in the NTL intensity, population density, and building density using the bivariate local indicators of the spatial association (LISA) method. In Turkey, Hatay, Gaziantep, and Sanliurfa experienced the largest NTL losses. Ar Raqqah was the most affected city in Syria, with the highest NTL loss rate. A correlation analysis showed that the number of injured populations in the provinces in Turkey and the number of pixels with a decreased NTL intensity exhibited a linear correlation, with an R-squared value of 0.7395. Based on the changing value of the NTL, the areas with large NTL losses were located 50 km from the earthquake epicentre in the east-by-south and north-by-west directions and 130 km from the earthquake epicentre in the southwest direction. The large NTL increase areas were distributed 130 km from the earthquake epicentre in the north-by-west and north-by-east directions and 180 km from the earthquake epicentre in the northeast direction, indicating a high resilience and effective earthquake rescue. The areas with large NTL losses had large populations and building densities, particularly in the areas approximately 130 km from the earthquake epicentre in the south-by-west direction and within 40 km of the earthquake epicentre in the north-by-west direction, which can be seen from the low–high (L-H) pattern of the LISA results. Our findings provide insights for evaluating natural disasters and can help decision makers to plan post-disaster reconstruction and determine risk levels on a national or regional scale.

Coseismic Faulting Model and Post-Seismic Surface Motion of the 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake Doublet Revealed by InSAR and GPS Measurements

On 6 February 2023 (UTC), an earthquake doublet, consisting of the Mw 7.8 Pazarcik earthquake and the Mw 7.5 Elbistan earthquake, struck south-central Turkey and northwestern Syria, which was the largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake. The faulting model of this earthquake was estimated based on the coseismic InSAR and GPS displacements. In addition, the best-fitting coseismic faulting model indicates that both the Pazarcik earthquake and the Elbistan earthquake were controlled by predominated left-lateral strike-slip motion, with slip peaks of 9.7 m and 10.8 m, respectively. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) change suggests that the Pazarcik earthquake has a positive effect in triggering the rupture of the seismogenic fault of the Elbistan earthquake. Furthermore, these two main shocks promoted the occurrence of the Mw 6.3 strong aftershock. Additionally, it is found that the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake doublet increased the rupture risk of the Puturge segment of the EAF fault and the northern segment of the Dead Sea Fault (DSF). It is crucial to note that the northern segment of the DSF has not experienced a large earthquake in several centuries, highlighting the need for heightened attention to the potential seismic hazard of this segment. Finally, a deformation zone adjacent to the DSF was identified, potentially attributed to the motion of a blind submarine fault.

Commentary: Reflections on the Turkey–Syria earthquakes of 6 February 2023

Commentary: Reflections on the Turkey–Syria earthquakes of 6 February 2023

Natural disasters, investor sentiments and stock market reactions: Evidence from Turkey–Syria earthquakes

This study provides stylised facts on the relationships between natural disasters, investor sentiments and market performance using the recent Turkey–Syria earthquakes. We employ daily stock market data relating to Turkey’s 21 major trading partners and find significant negative impact of the disaster on the sampled countries’ stock market returns, particularly for countries near Turkey.

Ionospheric Response to the 6 February 2023 Turkey–Syria Earthquake

Two strong earthquakes occurred in Turkey on 6 February 2023, at 01:17:34 (nighttime, Mw = 7.8) and at 10:24:50 UT (daytime, Mw = 7.5). The seismo-ionospheric impact is an important part of the near-Earth environment state. This paper provides the first results on the ionospheric effects associated with the aforementioned earthquakes. We used data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers and ionosondes. We found that both earthquakes generated circle disturbance in the ionosphere, detected by GNSS data. The amplitude of the ionospheric response caused by daytime M7.5 earthquake exceeded by five times that caused by nighttime M7.8 earthquake: 0.5 TECU/min and 0.1 TECU/min, respectively, according to the ROTI data. The velocities of the earthquake-related ionospheric waves were ~2000 m/s, as measured by ROTI, for the M7.5 earthquake. TEC variations with 2–10 min periods showed velocities from 1500 to 900 m/s as disturbances evolved. Ionospheric disturbances occurred around epicenters and propagated to the south by means of 2–10 min TEC variations. ROTI data showed a more symmetric distribution with irregularities observed both to the South and to the North from 10:24:50 UT epicenter. The ionospheric effects were recorded over 750 km from the epicenters. Ionosonde located 420/490 km from the epicenters did not catch ionospheric effects. The results show significant asymmetry in the propagation of coseismic ionospheric disturbances. We observed coseismic ionospheric disturbances associated with Rayleigh mode and acoustic modes, but we did not observe disturbances associated with acoustic gravity mode.

Coseismic drop of seismic velocity caused by the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes

SUMMARY The Mw 7.8 earthquake in Turkey on 6 February 2023 was extraordinary for various reasons. It originated in depth of only 10 km, ruptured along a fault plane around 300 km long and the surface was covered by an extensive network of high-quality seismic instruments. The strong motions resulted in a vast number of tragic casualties and huge material losses in Turkey and Syria. However, abundant and proximate seismic observations of this event and numerous aftershocks give an opportunity to deepen the understanding of earthquake processes. In this study, we carried out an assessment of coseismic changes of seismic velocity using passive image interferometry. We used data from one strong-motion and twenty-four broad-band sensors. We observed coseismic drops of seismic velocity, which reached up to −1.79 per cent at a location directly at the ruptured East Anatolian Fault Zone. Along the Mw 7.8 earthquake fault, we observe frequency dependence of the velocity changes. At frequencies above 0.5 Hz, the velocity drops seem to be higher at locations close to the ruptured faults than in the more distant areas.

Mental health of earthquake survivors in Turkey–Syria: what is needed?

In this Comment, Patwary et al. discuss the mental health needs of the Turkey–Syria earthquake survivors from an internal point of view, providing suggestions on what could be done for short- and long-term mental health improvement.

Addressing mental health aftershocks from the Turkey–Syria earthquake: a call to action

The mental health implications of the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake will probably be profound. Here we present research from prior disasters related to the potential negative mental health effects of the earthquake and its aftermath and provide suggestions for mitigating potential deleterious consequences.

Güriş Construction & Engineering, Inc. v. Syrian Arab Republic (Int'l Comm. Arb.)

On August 31, 2020, an arbitral tribunal sitting in the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) rendered its final award in Güriş Construction & Engineering, Inc. v. Syrian Arab Republic (Güriş). The tribunal held that the Respondent had breached its obligations under the Agreement Between the Republic of Turkey and the Syrian Arab Republic Concerning the Reciprocal Promotion and Protection of Investments (the Turkey–Syria BIT).

Конфликтный потенциал Восточного Средиземноморья

In recent years, the Eastern Mediterranean has become an area of confrontation between regional powers, with extra-regional countries, including the U.S. and the EU, also influencing the situation. The specificity of the situation stems from the fact that uneasy and often tense relations between the states in the region (Greece–Turkey; Israel– Palestine; Israel–Lebanon; Turkey–Syria), which are often at war or do not even have diplomatic relations, are complemented by their desire for access to the water areas as well as living and non-living resources of the sea. Who gets this access will determine the prospects for its social and economic development in the very long term. Discovered oil and gas reserves as well as the plans of certain states to build their respective pipelines intensify competition for resources. In turn, this process inevitably faces the need for maritime delimitation between countries, both with adjacent and opposing coasts, in which no one is prepared to make any concessions. It is primarily a question of delimiting the exclusive economic zones and the continental shelf, where coastal states have sovereign rights and jurisdiction to explore and exploit resources. The situation is aggravated by the presence of a series of island formations in the region, key among which is the Greek island of Kastelorizo, which also claims to form all the prescribed maritime zones of sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction. Turkey, which has the longest coastline in the region, cannot accept the infringement of its rights if the islands are given such rights to form extended maritime zones. Ankara as a non-party to the 1958 Geneva Convention on the Law of the Sea and the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea believes that any delimitation must be equitable and not based solely on the existing law. Turkey is firmly against any delimitation based on the median (equidistance) line method. It has pursued a highly provocative policy both to conduct seismological surveys in areas it considers its own and to conclude bilateral demarcation agreements where others perceive its maritime borders. The essence of these actions is to show that it is Turkey, not Greece or the Republic of Cyprus as an island state, that has the right to draw any maritime boundaries. The culmination of this policy was the 2019 Turkey–Libya Memorandum on Maritime Delimitation, which, although rejected by the international community, showed Ankara’s true agenda and its insistence on promoting its national interests.