Turbulent Period Research Articles

Book Review: Paolo Sollier, Kicks, Spits & Headers: The Autobiographical Reflections of an Accidental Footballer

Paolo Sollier was an Italian professional football player in the 1970s who was celebrated by some and reviled by others for his unflinching Marxist views. His book, Kicks, Spits, & Headers: The Autobiographical Reflections of an Accidental Footballer, was originally published in 1976 and is now available in English for the first time through the joint efforts of Autonomedia and Minor Compositions. In this volume, Sollier presents his reflections in a series of vignettes about the world as he experienced it as an accidental footballer. That is, as someone who drifted into (rather than eagerly pursued a career in) professional football. Even though they are presented in scattered vignettes, these reflections articulate coherent viewpoints on football, politics, and the intersection of the two during a turbulent period in post-World War II Italian history.

Socio-economic aspects of the outpatient care development in times of economic instability

Subject. Primary health care plays a leading role in preserving health, preventing diseases, and ensuring a high level of efficiency of the entire health care system of the country. Objectives. The study aims to determine the main directions in the organization and management of a medical institution to improve social and economic efficiency of outpatient services in extreme situations. Methods. The methodological framework of the study consists of the works of domestic and foreign researchers on organization, management and economics in healthcare, laws and regulations, information and analytical materials of official websites of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation and the Sverdlovsk Oblast, statistical and economic data of annual financial statements of the Central City Hospital No. 7 of Yekaterinburg. Results. The economic analysis of financial performance of medical institution unveiled disproportion in healthcare delivery. We developed possible directions of rational use of outpatient clinic’s economic resources to minimize costs during the period of economic turbulence in the industry. Conclusions. It is economically viable to introduce new organizational technologies into the activities of medical institutions subject to available material and technical resources and their rational use.

Has the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the intentions of individuals for a business venture? An integrated structural model approach

ABSTRACT This article provides distinctive insights into the main antecedents of entrepreneurial intention (EI) during the COVID-19 pandemic, merging Ajzen’s version of the Theory of Planned Behavior with an adjusted version of Shapero & Sokol’s Entrepreneurial Event Model, as well as an extended EI model developed by Krueger. Using a sample of 402 university students and applying structural equation modeling, the results identified attitudes toward entrepreneurship, perceived desirability and feasibility, and perceived self and collective efficacy as key drivers of EI, while capturing the turbulent investigation period through its impact on exogenous determinants, mainly the university environment.

Does the dynamics between government bond and equity markets validate the adaptive market hypothesis? evidence from transfer entropy

ABSTRACT The study applies the effective transfer entropy (ETE) and Renyi transfer entropy (RTE) to quantify the information flow between government bonds and equity market of G7 countries. The magnitude and direction of information flow between these two markets are dynamic across the state of the markets and time thus confirming their adaptiveness to the evolution of cross-market information flow under different market conditions over time. Although information flow from the equity dominates the flow from the bond market, it is dynamic over the time and state of the markets. However, during the period of market turbulence, the bond dominates the equity market. This study is the first of its kind to validate the adaptive market hypothesis using the novel transfer entropy framework in the bond and equity market.

Structural conditions of the sustainable intensification of agriculture in the regions of the European Union

Sustainable intensification (SI), understood as an increase in resource productivity in the agricultural sector, achieved without harming the natural environment, is getting more and more attention from researchers and policy makers in the European Union. There is however still lack of the research, taking into account a dynamic perspective, structural features in a regional scope and social dimension of sustainability. To fill this research gap we used regional FADN data from the years 2004–2018 which were clustered using the latent profile analysis and Ward method. In the second step of the analysis we measured the intensity of SI process by the means of metafrontier Malmquist-Luenberger TFP Index and then to verify the hypothesis about the impact of structural features on the sustainable intensification process, a MANOVA analysis was applied. We identified four clusters of the regions, which differed in the structural features such as concentration, specialisation and orientation of the production in agricultural sector. They can be described as: 1) small farms with predominance of mixed type of production; 2) large farms with predominance of animal production; 3) post-communist, industrial farms; 4) small, unspecialised farms, highly polarised. SI assessment revealed that in the years 2005–2018 process was uneven, with particularly turbulent period of global financial crisis 2008–2013, after changes were more stable and positive. Furthermore, technological gap between the groups of regions decreased. On the other hand, in the whole analysed period cumulative productivity change was below one in all the clusters, what indicates that SI did not occur.

South America’s military governments during the Cold War: a discussion of inter-state warfare

During the Cold War, dozens of military governments existed in South America. Some lasted only days or weeks, while others lasted years and even decades. The human rights abuses carried out by these military governments have been well analysed, like Argentina’s Dirty War. However, an interesting fact about this period tends to be ignored: inter-state warfare between South American states, even during military governments, was very scarce. The Falklands / Malvinas war is the only case of a South American military government, Argentina, beginning a war against another state, the United Kingdom. There were other incidents that could have caused inter-state warfare during this era, but war was avoided. The only other inter-state war during the Cold War in South America happened in 1981 between Ecuador and Peru, both being under civilian rule. There were (and still are) reasons for South American states to attack one another, particularly to regain lost or disputed territory; however, as this essay demonstrates, war was almost non-existent. This essay will discuss why South American military governments did not attack their neighbours during this turbulent period.

The Bolsheviks and Britain during the Russian Revolution and Civil War, 1917–24 by Evgeny Sergeev (review)

Reviewed by: The Bolsheviks and Britain during the Russian Revolution and Civil War, 1917–24 by Evgeny Sergeev Murray Frame Sergeev, Evgeny. The Bolsheviks and Britain during the Russian Revolution and Civil War, 1917–24. Bloomsbury Academic, London, New York and Dublin, 2022. xxi + 270 pp. Maps. Illustrations. Select chronology. Notes. Select bibliography. Index. £85.00. This interesting book by Evgeny Sergeev — Chief Research Fellow at the Institute of General History, Russian Academy of Sciences, and Professor of International and British History at the Russian State University for the Humanities — explores a brief but turbulent period in British-Russian relations, 1917–24, charting the transformation from wartime cooperation to open hostility and economic blockade, followed by gradual resumption of trade and diplomatic recognition of the USSR by Britain. Compared to many earlier studies of the topic, the book is notable for the author's extensive use of archives in both Russia and Britain, including previously inaccessible material such as recently declassified intelligence reports. Sergeev therefore adds much detail to a relatively familiar story, and in a manner which carefully balances primary material and perspectives from both sides of the relationship. The questions which Sergeev sets out to answer are clearly stated at the beginning: 'How did the revolutionary events of 1917 affect the military alliance between Petrograd and London? What were the origins of a dramatic transition from friendly cooperation to outright animosity in the later years? Why did the British armed intervention fail, and what are the reasons for the recognition of the Bolshevik dictatorship by the UK government?' (p. 2). Although the main conclusions will not surprise historians of the period — the revolution sundered the military alliance; the outright animosity stemmed from 'competing geopolitical interests' (p. 167); Britain formally recognized the USSR because there was growing appetite for stable relations and resumption of trade — they are grounded in considerable detail, and readers will admire the author's encyclopaedic knowledge of this complex and multi-layered subject. Sergeev succeeds in conveying a tangible sense of the international uncertainties of the period and how they divided officials in both London [End Page 177] and Petrograd/Moscow. On the British side, for example, George Lansbury, Alfred Milner and Lloyd-George — whose assistants, we learn, nicknamed him the 'Kerensky of the West' (p. 12) — favoured early diplomatic recognition of Bolshevik Russia, but most government officials did not, concerned that the Bolsheviks would sign a separate peace with the Central Powers and then seek to undermine the British empire. During 1917–18, this question dominated political deliberations about Russia, especially after the Russian-German armistice in December 1917, and it partly lay behind Robert Bruce Lockhart's well-known mission to Moscow in 1918. On the Russian side, Lenin was anxious about the fate of the revolution as the Germans advanced again in February 1918, and so he remained open to Allied support if necessary, at least until the Brest-Litovsk Treaty was signed in the face of opposition from many within the Soviet leadership. The 'Lockhart Plot' — or 'complot of ambassadors' — to overthrow the Bolsheviks ended any prospect of collaboration between Britain and Russia for the next two years. Steps towards coexistence were possible only after the cessation of the Allied intervention, the main purpose of which — to protect the eastern front, support the White counter-revolutionaries, or prevent revolutionary contagion — never seemed consistent. A strength of Sergeev's book is that he gives considerable attention to British-Russian relations in the Middle East, often side-lined at the expense of a Eurocentric focus. While Britain sought to contain Bolshevik expansion — and to counter German moves towards Transcaucasia and beyond — the Soviets deployed a variety of diplomatic and political tools aimed at forestalling British encroachments on surrounding territories, such as signing agreements with Persia and Afghanistan in 1921. Sergeev emphasizes that the landmark agreements of the period failed to improve relations quickly. Following the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement of 1921, mutual suspicion remained. British officials remained concerned by Soviet efforts to spread revolutionary propaganda across the empire, while the Soviets objected to British funding of White Russians in neighbouring countries. Yet the economic imperative for cooperation was strong: by late 1921...

Financial Factors Explaining Value Migration: Evidence from Central Europe

Abstract The objective of this article is to identify the relationship between financial factors and value migration on a yearly basis. The data cover nonfinancial firms listed on exchanges in Central European (CE) countries from 2016 to 2020. To evaluate the migration of value between industries, the share in the industry migration balance was estimated. Next, averages in three industry terciles, set on the basis of the change in market value added, were calculated and compared using both parametric and nonparametric tests. It allowed us to analyse the economic and statistical significance of the value drivers in the value migration process. The value migration in the largest Central European industries intensified during the COVID-19 crisis. The largest sectors were not negatively affected by the pandemic. It seems that, at least for some industries, there was a positive relationship between the growth of market value and sales profitability, sales growth, and cash levels. The market value drivers did not significantly change in the first year of the pandemic. This study contributes to the recent empirical literature on value changes and fills the gaps in the current research for the Central European region, during the time of the macroeconomic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The conclusions on the value migration factors may be useful for investors in their decision-making process. Our results can also serve as a valuable reference for managers in the process of defining business strategies, especially during turbulent periods.

Sentiment classification of annual reports in Slovak language using symbolic, subsymbolic and statistic methods

Background: Sentiment analysis as a tool for recognizing emotions from bank reports can serve to capture the intentions and opinions of corporations, change the emotional context during turbulent periods, and to verify the compliance of the context of the reports with banking conservatism. The purpose of the presented study is to describe the process of creating an own dataset from annual reports in the Slovak language with marked sentiment and the subsequent search for models capable of classifying the sentiment of reports as positive, negative, or neutral.Methods: Our methodology consists of a series of steps necessary for obtaining the text and its subsequent preprocessing to create a dataset. The study further deals with the iterative search for the best combination of hyperparameters for symbolic, subsymbolic, statistic and homogenous symbolic ensemble models in order to find the best classifying model.Results: The experimental results show that the subsymbolic methods are the most suitable for the classifying sentiment of Slovak annual reports. The proposed model can classify sentiment with 98% accuracy.Conclusion: The classification of sentiment in inflectional languages requires particularly precise pre-preparation to give. For the Slovak language, subsymbolic and statistical machine learning methods work best for the sentiment classification of annual reports.

The Possibility of Using Modern Methods and Data to Study the Spatial Structure of the St.-Petersburg Agglomeration

Abstract—The article is devoted to the review and substantiation of modern research methods and data sources on the dynamics of spatial structure of the largest Russian urban agglomerations. The object of the study is modern methods and data sources, and the subject is the possibilities of their use. On the example of the second agglomeration in Russia – St.‑Petersburg urban agglomeration – it is shown that interdisciplinary synthesis within the framework of socio-economic geography, regional economics, urban studies, geoinformatics and cartography, land management, using a variety of data sources (data of cellular operators, tax statistics, housing construction, satellite data, retail chains, road network), as well as the use of modern GIS-complexes, allow us to assess this structure, its changes, as well as to analyze the spatial structure of the largest Russian urban agglomerations. The main objective of this study is to review and critically rethink the methods of studying the spatial structure of one of Russia’s largest urban agglomerations (St.-Petersburg) developing in the turbulent period between 2014 and 2022. An inventory of different methods and data sources was made, using the method of reasoning. Further, the advantages and disadvantages of each group of methods were identified. Through an in-depth bibliographic analysis, the limitations and possibilities of empirical content (availability of specific data sources) were identified. Based on the critical analysis of advantages and disadvantages, a final point estimate of applicability and usefulness of the considered methods for the St. Petersburg urban agglomeration is obtained. The author’s contribution lies in the adaptation of modern groups of methods for the study of the spatial structure of cities for the study of the considered agglomeration, taking into account the local specificity and assessment of applicability and usefulness of the considered methods for St. Petersburg urban agglomeration. It is assumed that the development of a modern methodology for studying the spatial structure of the St. Petersburg urban agglomeration based on the symbiosis of modern methods and data sources will make a certain contribution to the study of the largest Russian agglomerations.

Editor as Mediator: A Profile of Albert Cartwright in Early Twentieth Century South Africa

Editor as Mediator: A Profile of Albert Cartwright in Early Twentieth Century South Africa

Ideological movements that inspire the possibility of a radically different future

Historical research on the Global 1960s has flourished in the last decade. 'The Routledge Global 1960s and 1970s Book Series' produced books like The Global 1960s: Convention, Contest and Counterculture, and also launched the re-named Global Sixties Journal which have provided us with a deeper and more nuanced understanding of this important historical decade in the twentieth century. The focus of much of this new research has shifted towards the Third World, now commonly referred to as the Global South. For much of the Global South, the 1960s marked a period of significant turbulence and transformation. People in Asia, Africa, the Caribbean, and Latin America were guided by new ideological movements that inspired the possibility of a radically different future. A feeling of transnational solidarity buttressed this moment of optimism. Young people across the world, including those in Africa, were often the conceivers and drivers of such change.

Russian Society in the Period of Global Turbulence: Challenges and Opportunities

Russian Society in the Period of Global Turbulence: Challenges and Opportunities

Промышленная политика России в условиях вызовов глобальной трансформации: задачи теории и практики перехода к новому этапу индустриального развития (НИО.2)

Modern Russia, like the whole world, is going through a period of uncertainty and turbulence associated with a change in the long-term trajectory of development. This transformation creates new challenges for the Russian economy and society as a whole. The author considers the issues of structuring these challenges into a system of goals and objectives of economic and industrial policy, as well as proposes effective tools for its implementation.

Ensembling two deep learning algorithms to efficiently solve the problem of predicting volatility in applied finance

Volatility is one of the most commonly used terms in the trading platform. In financial markets, volatility reflects the magnitude of price fluctuations. High volatility is associated with periods of market turbulence and sharp price fluctuations, while low volatility characterizes more relaxed pricing. When trading options, it is especially important for trading firms to accurately predict volatility values, since the price of options is directly related to the profit of a trading firm. A proactive artificial intelligence model that allows predicting volatility for future periods of time will be presented in this article.

Britain’s China policy after Brexit: Based on pragmatism or values first?

After Brexit, Britain has vowed to build a “Global Britain”. Guided by this strategy, the Great Britain’s policy towards People’s Republic of China is undergoing a more dramatic adjustment, which has brought the relations between China and the United Kingdom from a “golden era” to a more turbulent and unpredictable period of today. Overall, Britain’s current policy toward China is based on a range of policy tools, such as investment screening, Indo-Pacific Policy, as well as bilateral mechanisms, to catch the Chinese market for economic gain, while politically following the United States and provoking China on ideological and sovereignty matters in order to maintain its alliance with the West. Given in general the increase of negative perceptions of British public opinion of China, as well as the dramatic changes in the international situation (including the occurrence of major geopolitical events such as the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict), adjustments in the UK’s policy toward China will continue for some time, which will impact the stability of Sino-British relations. In the future, based on pragmatism, Britain’s China policy will maintain a flexible balance between maintaining selective cooperation with China in economy and global governance and deepening confrontation with China in the political sphere.

Analiza učestalosti i karakteristike najčešćih prediktora anksioznosti kod adolescenata

Anxiety represents the behavioral, emotional and cognitive response of the person on experience if potential or future danger. Pathological anxiety occurs when this reaction is unreasonable, that is it is not proportionate to the stress or challenge, and it leads to intense fear, nervousness and impaired functioning. Anxiety can occur in any period of life. Adolescence is a turbulent developmental period that increases the risk of young people to develop numerous mental disorders. Numerous predictors determinate the development of anxiety in adolescents. Prevention of anxiety disorders in adolescents is a public health priority, therefore it is necessary to identify risk factors and implement activities to suppress these factors.

Monitoring Long-Term Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Urban Expansion Using Multisource Remote Sensing Images and Historical Maps: A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

The spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion have attracted worldwide attention and have been generalized into several prevalent hypotheses, such as the diffusion–coalescence hypothesis and the three-growth-type hypothesis. Although many studies have examined the applicability of these hypotheses, long-term research and evidence are still lacking. This study incorporated a compiled dataset of multisource remote sensing images and historical maps covering nine snapshots of the urban built-up area from 1914 to 2018 to monitor the urban expansion process in Hangzhou, China. A fractal analysis of the area–radius relationship was employed for areal demarcation to explore the heterogenous patterns across different intra-city spatial extents. The results show that (1) Hangzhou has experienced a turbulent period of primitive urbanization in the pre-reform era and a consecutive period of market-oriented urbanization after the economic reform; (2) the urban expansion pattern characterized by landscape metrics demonstrates the existence of multiple alternations between diffusion and coalescence phases with peculiarities across different intra-city spatial extents; (3) the analysis of urban growth types documents a consistent predominance of edge-expansion with wax and wane between infilling and leapfrogging; and (4) institutional reform, industrial development, and administrative division adjustment are the main drivers of urban expansion in Hangzhou. Our findings suggest that effective planning policies need to be raised to curb urban sprawl. Differentiated planning strategies should be proposed to accommodate unique conditions in different urban subregions. The integrated-analysis approach based on multisource remote sensing images and historical maps establishes a feasible pathway for long-term urban research.

Iran’s Political Elite: Main Problems and Internal Conflicts

The article is devoted to the study of the structure of the Iranian political elite and of the contours of a new intra-elite balance that may arise after the departure of Ali Khamenei from the post of supreme leader. The author tries to identify those problems and challenges that threatens the structure of the socio-political system of the Islamic Republic in the current turbulent period, when, on the one hand, the global economic crisis is growing, and on the other hand, the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations is changing. The relevance of the study lies in the fact that the role of Iran in our time has increased many times due to the intensification of the confrontation between the great powers. Moreover, this confrontation is also superimposed on the complex socio-political situation in Iran, which, theoretically, can lead to a significant transformation of the Iranian political elite. And in this regard, it is obvious that the country's foreign policy will be adjusted both under the influence of external factors and depending on the results of the struggle within the Iranian establishment and, accordingly, the formation of a new intra-elite architecture. Thus, the trends in the development of Russian-Iranian cooperation will be decisively influenced by the results of the ongoing rebalancing of the political elite of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Jonáš Záborský — ethical-philosophical thoughts

The main aim of the submitted paper is to present the relationship of Jonáš Záborský to philosophy, religion and to everyday ethical-social issues. All these aspects are closely interconnected in his work. Even though Záborský stood aside from the main Slovak national movement of the 19th century, his work is intrinsically linked to the struggle associated with this turbulent period of Slovak history. Záborský is described by many authors as the most prominent figure on the field of morality during the 19th century in our cultural space. Such affirmative judgement is mostly based on his work ‘The Wisdom of Life in Temple Speech’. This work is used to examine the aims of the presented paper. Although it is impossible to characterize his relationship to philosophy and the connection between philosophy and religion explicitly, the present paper describes changes in this field during his life. At the same time, the paper presents the practicality of Záborský’s thinking. We demonstrate his struggle and effort to help his nation and to help common people through education and day-to-day work. In this context, the article briefly presents his (moral) attitudes towards such issues as work, usury, lending, and justice. In the context of these social issues with strong moral connotation, the present paper shows how Záborský’s life attitude connects love for the nation with the necessity of education. At the same time, the paper uses these issues as an example to demonstrate how, in Záborský’s understanding, material improvement can be connected to moral improvement.