This research simulates and forecasts the area as well as the level of pollution dispersion of Muc Son Paper Factory’s wastewater to the downstream of Chu River under two scenarios: Scenario 1 - wastewater treatment system is broken; treatment efficiency is equal to 0; Scenario 2 - wastewater treatment system is working with its designed capacity. The applied results of the MIKE 11 model show that: the impacted area from the plant’s discharge is 0.2 km upstream and 2 km downstream of the confluence point. The simulation results under Scenario 1 show TSS, BOD5 and COD contents being 18.3–35.7 mg/L, 8.3–17.2 mg/L and 12.2–23.7 mg/L, respectively, negatively affect the water environment downstream of Chu river. The results are then compared with measured data to confirm the reliability of the model. This research is a scientific and practical basis for the Muc Son Paper factory to operate the wastewater treatment system and manage the water quality output to ensure environmental regulations.