Trust In Political Institutions Research Articles

Shocks to the System: Electoral Manipulation, Protests and the Evolution of Political Trust in Russia

Abstract How do electoral manipulation and resulting anti-fraud protests influence political trust in non-democratic contexts? I leverage the plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of a series of original surveys fielded on nationally representative samples in Russia to understand the impact of political shocks – particularly allegations of electoral fraud and post-election protests – on the evolution of trust in political institutions and individuals. This study demonstrates that allegations of excessive, blatant electoral fraud decrease trust in the autocrat. However, trust rebounds following attendant post-election protests. Finally, I examine the conditional impacts of fraud and protest on trust, finding that updating occurs primarily among those with weak political affiliation.

Bridging the gap: Political engagement and trust as mediators of racial health inequities and vaccine reluctance

This paper investigates how political engagement and trust can reduce health disparities in the context of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. It posits that active participation in the political process and trust in political institutions enable communities, especially marginalized ones, to advocate for equitable health policies, leading to more inclusive healthcare services. The study employs a multidisciplinary approach to understand how politics influence individual and collective health behaviors and decision-making. The research uses t-tests and logistic regression to analyze the relationship between political factors (like interest and participation) and trust in political and federal systems on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. The t-test examines disparities in vaccine hesitancy across racial groups, revealing significant differences and emphasizing the impact of race on health behaviors. Logistic regression, controlling for variables such as partisanship and media influence, further explores these relationships, showing a consistent negative correlation between trust in federal institutions and vaccine hesitancy across racial groups. The study also finds that this correlation varies by race, with trust in the political system and political participation influencing vaccine hesitancy to different degrees among racial groups. These findings underscore the complex interplay between political engagement, trust, and health behaviors, highlighting the role of politics in shaping public health outcomes.

The Great Vaccine Divide: A Comparative Analysis of Distrust in Covid-19 Vaccines in Turkey

The aim of this study is to identify key predictors of public distrust in different Covid-19 vaccines available in Turkey. We use multiple linear regression with robust standard errors to analyze the data from the 2022 Turkey Covid-19 Values Survey of 1,500 face-to-face interviews across Turkey. Our results show that Pfizer/BioNTech has the lowest level of distrust, followed by Sinovac and Turkovac. Trust in political institutions and health institutions significantly reduce distrust for all vaccine brands. However, conspiracy beliefs and political conservatism are linked to higher distrust in Sinovac and BioNTech, while increased religiosity correlates with more distrust in BioNTech but less in Turkovac. Our comparative brand analysis adds an essential perspective to the existing literature while highlighting the necessity of maintaining public trust in institutions. It also demonstrates the importance of brand-specific strategies in promoting vaccines and addressing challenges faced by populations for more successful public health initiatives.

Before and after. Italian MPs and political communication

ABSTRACT The crisis of political representation has several explanations, including the collapse of trust in political institutions and the weakening of the role of the party as an intermediary between voters and elected representatives. This is counterbalanced by a strategy of individual representation pursued by politicians. This article aims to examine representation in Italy through a highly innovative approach, that of the strategic communication of the elected during the electoral campaign and in office: not only the parliamentary work of the elected, but also the overall analysis of the electoral campaign and constituency communication. The study identifies changes in representation, including functional and thematic autonomy from the party, personalization of activities, promotion of independent communication tools, and party-independent agendas. It also highlights the backstage structuring of a new relationship between voters and elected representatives in politics. A study conducted on 150 Italian parliamentarians in Chamber of Deputies (17th Legislature, 2013–18) revealed varying logics of representation based on their political affiliation, career paths, and individual characteristics.

The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance.

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between electoral manipulation and popular trust in political institutions. Governments often manipulate election results by resorting to electoral fraud. They also tilt the electoral field by opportunistically deciding when to hold elections, in other words, election timing maneuvering. How do these two different types of electoral manipulation affect citizens' trust in the government, legislature, and election management bodies (EMBs)? We suggest that although the short-term effects of election timing manipulation are unclear due to its ambiguous nature as an electioneering strategy, substantial electoral margins created by timing maneuvering facilitate smooth decision-making, leading to boosting trust in the government and legislature over the long run. In contrast, as electoral fraud is an unambiguous form of manipulation, it may undermine trust in the government and parliament, although such effects may not last. By combining an original dataset of election timing with existing survey data comprising 335,000 citizens from fifty-eight democratic countries, we find evidence in support of our theoretical expectations.

Affective Polarization in the 2022 South Korean Presidential Election: Causes and Consequences

In this study, we analyzed the factors that intensified affective polarization among voters during the 2022 South Korean presidential election. We also examined this polarization's effect on their political attitudes, including their satisfaction with democracy, perception of the fairness of elections, and trust in political institutions. We found that the greater the perceived ideological differences between the two parties the People Power Party (PPP) and the Democratic Party ― (DP)―and the more extreme the voter's ideology, the more affective polarization increased. We also found that affective polarization intensified with increasing ideological extremity among all age cohorts except those in their forties. Finally, in contrast to DP supporters, PPP supporters' political attitudes became more negative as their affective polarization increased because the opposing party, the DP, was the governing party. This suggests that affective polarization may polarize support for democratic norms and trust in the political institutions that underpin democracy, depending on one's partisan allegiances.

Государство как ценность: репрезентация образа будущего в речах российских парламентариев

The article is devoted to studying the representation of state as value in the speeches of the deputies of the State Duma from the viewpoint of the image of Russia’s future. As a starting point, the authors used the pentabasis model, where the image of the future is presented in the form of five elements, one of which is the state, interpreted via trust in political institutions. The theoretical basis of the study was the concept of Stein Rokkan and his followers, according to which the state formation involves building socio-cultural boundaries that indicate belonging to a political community. The empirical basis was the transcripts of speeches of deputies on current socio-economic, political and other issues at the plenary sessions of the State Duma of VII— VIII convocations. The research was carried out by the method of discourse analysis. The obtained results clearly demonstrate that national parliamentarians are deeply concerned about the problem of trust. Although decisions on the most fundamental issues are made via consensus, deputies feel a lack of trust among certain groups of the population, which requires them to exert additional efforts to justify their initiatives. The topics they most often turn to include welfare state, center-regions relations, and economic development. At the same time, they rarely directly touch upon the prospects of domestic political institutions, as well as the topic of the image of the future in general, which may be explained by both a shortage of strategic ideas and external restrictions on parliamentary discourse.

Why Economic Inequality Undermines Political Trust: An Analysis of Mechanisms

Abstract Research suggests that economic inequality reduces political trust after the public recognizes the inequality and perceives it as a failure of the political system in Western democracies. This study challenges this presumed “output evaluation model” (OEM) both theoretically and empirically. We provide an alternative mediator evaluation model (MEM) contending that objective inequality affects political trust through government-performance mediators, without requiring accurate public perception of inequality or specific regime types. With nationwide economic inequality and public opinion data from China, we examined both the OEM implication and four MEM mechanisms through impartial governance, responsiveness, judicial fairness, and anti-corruption efforts. Findings indicate that the mediating mechanisms, rather than direct inequality, shape political trust, with robust evidence even after addressing endogeneity. This study broadens the understanding of the intricate relationship between systemic conditions and individual perceptions, offering significant insights into the dynamics of trust in political institutions in a general sense.

Medication against conflict

Adverse health conditions and social conflict constitute major impediments for developing countries. The potential for reducing social conflict by successful public health interventions is largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention—the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa. Combining exogenous time variation in access to ART with cross-sectional variation in the scope for treatment for identification, we find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social conflict, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal that the ART expansion reduced the number of social conflict events by about 10%.

Rally Around the Government or a Populist Response? How Concerns About COVID-19 and Emotional Responses Relate to Institutional Trust and Support for Right-Wing Populism

Recent studies have shown that the coronavirus pandemic not only temporarily increased support for incumbent politicians and trust in experts but also triggered an authoritarian response. Because the pandemic has significantly affected individuals’ goals, needs, and control over their lives, we expect that it has generated emotional reactions. In this article, we study how concerns about COVID-19 relate to institutional trust (trust in political institutions and experts) and a preference for populist right parties—directly and indirectly—via emotions. Our theoretical framework relies on the “rally around the flag” hypothesis, the cultural backlash theory, as well as appraisal theories of emotions. We analyze a novel data set collected as part of the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences Panel Survey for the Netherlands at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic (October 2020). Our findings reveal that concerns about COVID-19 are positively related to institutional trust but unrelated to preferences for right-wing populism. The relationship between concerns about the coronavirus crisis and trust in political institutions is mediated via fear and sadness; these emotions also explain opposition to right-wing populist parties. We interpret our findings in relation to research on the rally around the flag effect, right-wing populism, and emotions. We discuss the implications of our results in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and other “rally”-inducing events.

Sympathies for Putin Within the German Public: A Consequence of Political Alienation?

AbstractWhy do individuals in democratic nations sympathize with autocratic leaders from abroad? In this article, we address this general question with regard to Germans’ attitudes toward Vladimir Putin in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Building on the intuition that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and its formalization in balance theory, our study focuses on the role of political alienation at home. To study this role comprehensively, we consider several facets of political alienation: a lack of trust in political institutions, low support for democracy as a regime, a sense of estrangement from public discourse, and an inclination toward conspiracy thinking. Using longitudinal analyses on data from the German Longitudinal Election Study panel, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our argument that political alienation—particularly in terms of low political trust and a proclivity for conspiracy thinking—drives sympathies for Putin and his regime. Against the backdrop of mounting attempts by Russia and other autocratic powers to influence discourses in Western societies via some segments of society, our findings illuminate one important source of sympathy for Putin and, potentially, foreign autocrats more broadly.

Political crisis and social trust: the case of Australia

ABSTRACT Trust in Australian political institutions has declined markedly since 2007. Trust scholars and social capital theorists argue that institutional trust affects social trust, which implies that declining trust in political institutions should also reduce social trust. However, using data from the Australian Election Study, World Values Survey and HILDA panel study, I find no evidence of any aggregate-level decline in Australian social trust since 2007. While this could be a result of the ‘coup era’ in Australian politics from 2010 to 2018, a better explanation is that social trust remained high because permanent changes in trust occur primarily among younger people. A long-term decline through generational replacement therefore remains possible. This challenges both social capital theory and institutional theories of social trust, but would explain the experiences of other advanced democracies during episodes of political crisis, including New Zealand, Greece, Finland, Japan, Sweden, Spain and the United States.

ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL COMMUNICATION, POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN POLITICAL PARTIES, POLITICAL COSTS, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR PUBLIC TRUST IN ACEH PROVINCE

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of political communication, political leadership within political parties, political costs, and government support on public trust in Aceh Province. Theoretical framework: The urgency of analyzing political communication, political leadership within political parties, political costs, and government support for public trust in Aceh Province lies in the importance of understanding and enhancing the quality of the political process in the region. By deepening the understanding of these factors, efforts can be made to strengthen effective political communication, build quality political leadership, manage political costs effectively, and increase government support for political parties. This is expected to have a positive impact on public trust in political parties, strengthen democracy, and promote sustainable development in Aceh Province. Design/methodology/approach: the study used an explanatory research method with a quantitative approach in Aceh province. It focused on variables such as political communication, leadership qualities within political parties, political costs, government support, public trust, and voting intention. The sample consisted of 278 respondents, selected using purposive sampling. Data was collected over four months using Google Forms. The objective was to analyze the influence of political communication, leadership qualities, political costs, and government support on public trust, as factors affecting voting intention. Data processing involved steps such as data inspection, coding, and tabulation using an index table. Descriptive analysis, specifically the Index Analysis technique, was used to depict respondents' perceptions. Findings: This research reveals interesting insights into the perception and voting intention towards political parties in Aceh. Respondents showed high satisfaction and agreement with the variables of political communication, leadership qualities within political parties, political costs, and government support in the context of legislative and regional elections. Political communication was perceived as effective by the respondents, and the leadership qualities within political parties were also highly rated. While respondents expressed satisfaction with political costs in elections, there are concerns regarding the proportional relationship between high political costs and the perceived quality of political parties by the public. Government support for political parties was considered satisfactory as well. Public trust can be eroded by corruption, injustice, or government failure to meet public expectations. Therefore, it is important for political parties and the government to strengthen their relationship with the public through empowerment, openness, and responsiveness to public aspirations. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for political parties to improve their strategies. Effective political communication, charismatic leadership within political parties, efficient management of political costs, and strong government support are crucial factors in building trust and winning the hearts of voters. Research, Practical & Social implications: The research findings reveal important insights into the perception and voting intention towards political parties in Aceh. The respondents expressed high satisfaction and agreement with variables such as political communication, leadership qualities within political parties, political costs, and government support in the context of elections. Effective political communication was identified as a crucial factor in building trust between political parties and voters, while the leadership qualities within political parties were highly valued by the respondents. Transparent management of campaign funds and strong government support were also considered important for maintaining public trust. These findings have practical implications for political parties to improve their strategies, including enhancing political communication, developing competent leaders, ensuring transparency in campaign finance, and fostering good relations with the government. Furthermore, the research highlights the social implications of trust in political institutions, emphasizing the need for transparency, accountability, and responsiveness to public aspirations to maintain public trust in the government and promote a healthy political system and democracy. Originality/value: This research provides original insights into the perception and voting intention towards political parties in Aceh, highlighting high satisfaction with political communication, leadership qualities, political costs, and government support. However, concerns arise regarding the proportional relationship between high political costs and the perceived quality of political parties. It emphasizes the importance of strengthening the relationship between political parties, the government, and the public through empowerment, openness, and responsiveness to build trust. The findings offer valuable recommendations for political parties to improve their strategies, focusing on effective communication, charismatic leadership, efficient management of costs, and strong government support as crucial factors in winning the hearts of voters.

THE PARTISAN PARTICIPATION IN THE JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Purpose: The study explores parliamentary elections, election laws, and party attitudes, using content analysis to understand their impact on electoral outcomes. It suggests recommendations for enhancing trust and promoting democratic principles.
 
 Theoretical framework: The study's theoretical framework may incorporate political science and sociology concepts, focusing on electoral processes, political parties, and democratic governance. It may explore institutionalism, party systems theory, democratic theory, and content analysis methodology to understand the impact of election laws, party behavior, and democratic norms on political outcomes.
 
 Design/Methodology/Approach: The study's theoretical framework may incorporate political science and sociology concepts, focusing on electoral processes, political parties, and democratic governance. It may explore institutionalism, party systems theory, democratic theory, and content analysis methodology to understand the impact of election laws, party behavior, and democratic norms on political outcomes.
 
 Findings: The study may have revealed the dynamic nature of the electoral environment, the impact of election laws on party behavior, partisan positions on electoral processes, the effectiveness of political parties in elections, trust in political institutions, and recommendations for electoral reform. These findings could help strengthen democratic governance and electoral processes.
 
 Research, Practical & Social Implications: The study provides empirical insights into party behavior and election laws, highlighting the importance of qualitative research methods. It can inform policymakers, political parties, and civil society organizations in electoral reforms, enhancing fairness, transparency, and inclusivity. The findings can also promote trust, civic engagement, and protection of human rights, fostering a more inclusive democracy.
 
 Originality/Value: The study provides valuable insights into evolving electoral dynamics, partisan positions, and electoral outcomes. It offers recommendations for improving trust and promoting democratic principles. The content analysis method provides a rigorous framework for analyzing textual data, enhancing the robustness of the findings.

Like a bridge over troubled water: Wellbeing and trust in governance during turbulent times

The COVID-19 pandemic extended interest in the relationships between citizens and governments in turbulent times of crises and emergencies. While the pandemic generated a critical existential threat to the lives of many, it also had a significant effect on the quality of life and on the wellbeing of even larger populations. This paper deals with the relationship between the wellbeing of citizens and three types of trust in governance (i.e. trust in political institutions, trust in public administration, trust in enforcement institutions) during the pandemic. We aim at advancing knowledge on both wellbeing and trust during crises, and more specifically on direct and indirect patterns of these important relationships. To do so, we suggest alternative models and a series of hypotheses aimed at examining them empirically. Two datasets on Israeli citizens are used. They were collected over two points in time during the heat of the pandemic and toward its decline and end (Study 1/t1; N = 1026 and Study 2/t2; N = 3024) and largely represent major sectors and ethnicities in the population. The findings generally support a positive relationship between wellbeing and trust, but more importantly indicate that during crisis, trust in public administration and enforcement institutions mediates the relationship between wellbeing and trust in political institutions. We thus argue that the public service may act as a bridge between citizens’ wellbeing and political trust. In our view, the findings testify to the complexity of the wellbeing–trust relationship, especially in challenging times. Implications and directions for future studies are suggested. Points for practitioners Trust in governance is different for various political institutions and for different public administration organizations, especially in turbulent times Civil servants should be aware of citizens’ wellbeing during crises as it affects trust in governance Citizen trust and wellbeing are significantly related in times of emergency and crises

Multilevel analysis of COVID-19 vaccination intention: the moderating role of economic and cultural country characteristics.

Predictors of COVID-19 (coronavirus) vaccination have been extensively researched; however, the contextual factors contributing to understanding vaccination intention remain largely unexplored. The present study aimed to investigate the moderating role of economic development (Gross domestic product - GDP per capita), economic inequality (Gini index), the perceived corruption index and Hofstede's measurements of cultural values-index of individualism/collectivism and power distance index-in the relationship between determinants of satisfaction with the healthcare system, trust in political institutions, conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 vaccination intention. A multilevel modelling approach was employed on a sample of approximately 51000 individuals nested within 26 countries. Data were drawn from the European Social Survey Round 10. The model examined the effect of individual- and country-level predictors and their interaction on vaccination intention. Satisfaction with the healthcare system had a stronger positive effect on intention to get vaccinated in countries with lower perceived corruption and more individualistic countries. Trust in political institutions had a stronger positive effect on vaccination intention in countries with higher economic development and lower perceived corruption, while a negative effect of conspiracy beliefs on vaccination intention was stronger in countries with lower economic development, higher perceived corruption and a more collectivistic cultural orientation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering individual and contextual factors when addressing vaccination intention.

Executive-legislative interface and functioning of political institutions in Romania

The purpose of this study is to discuss the struggle between the prime minister and the president to exercise legislative and executive power. According to the constitution of Romania, there is a clear division of power between the President and the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister is the head of government but the President also plays a key role in the country. There are many examples of interference in legislative work by the President of Romania. The paper discusses power sharing between the legislative and executive power of the Prime minister and the President of Romania. Because of the semi-presidential system in the country, the President of Romania has equal legislative power as the Prime minister. This has in practice led to major contradictions in the functioning of the Romanian political system. The paper analyses the substantial power that the Constitution vests the President with affects the Prime Minister’s role in the country. That is why Romania’s democratic journey has been one of power struggle between the President and the Prime Minister. Apart from the many conflicts between the President and Prime Minister, there is a massive debate on corruption which has also critically affected institution-building in this new democracy. There are discussions about the pillar of democratic bodies which is fragile and lacks trust in political institutions.

The relationship between institutional quality, trust and private savings

Abstract This paper draws on macroeconomics, the economics of institutions and the economics of trust to explain private savings at the national level for 33 OECD (mostly European) countries from 2002 to 2012. More specifically, it raises two questions: (i) is it the quality of institutions or trust in institutions that drives private savings? (ii) if trust matters, what is the appropriate institutional level at which it operates? To answer these questions, we add to the usual explanatory variables of private savings three measures of institutional quality and six measures of institutional trust, distributed between the following institutional levels, presented in assumed hierarchical order: political, legal, financial and social. We find that trust in political institutions is the most significant driver of private savings. This contributes to the literature underlining the importance of subjectivity in social and economic phenomena and suggests, for private bank savings in countries having highly regulated banking systems, the existence of a hierarchy of trust in which trust in the highest-ranking institutions (political – and to a lesser extent legal – institutions) acts as a substitute for trust in every lower-ranking institution (financial institutions and social trust).

The significance of education, democratic values, and political trust across different countries

This study aimed to analyze the critical role that education plays in shaping democratic values and fostering political trust across different countries. This looked at how education, democratic values and political trust are related in many nations, emphasizing how significant these sub-variables are for promoting social cohesion and sustainable government. The study analyzed how educational attainment affects citizens' comprehension of democratic principles and, in turn, their trust in political institutions by examining cross-national data. It looked into how educational systems may foster critical thinking and civic involvement, two things that are crucial for fostering democratic values. This research used data mining method with qualitative analysis approach in analyzing the significance of education, democratic values and political trust. Data mining methods involving qualitative analysis focus on extracting meaningful patterns and insights from qualitative data. This approach emphasizes understanding the underlying themes and contexts within the data, utilizing techniques like thematic analysis, grounded theory, and content analysis. The results showed that political trust rises with educational attainment, indicating that knowledgeable citizens are more inclined to participate in democratic processes and favor stable government. The study emphasized how important it is for policymakers to give education top priority because it is a fundamental component of bolstering democracy and boosting political legitimacy, both of which lead to more resilient societies.

Латинская Америка: колебания политического маятника Ивановский З.В., ред. Латинская Америка: политический ландшафт на фоне турбулентности. М.: ИЛА РАН, 2022

The left and right, democratic, hybrid, and authoritarian systems, consolidated and unconsolidated democracies, rising giant-states and underdeveloped economies coexist in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean, which covers more than three dozen states that share common historical destiny, language, and religion. This makes the region a fertile ground for studying various types of regimes, political processes and alternative development paths in the modern world, as vividly demonstrated by the collective monograph “Latin America: Political Landscape in the Midst of Turbulence”, published at the end of 2022. Based on a thorough analysis of the situation in the region, the authors of the monograph show that political life in Latin America is characterized by instability and constant reshaping of the political landscape. The strengthening of the positions of right-wing forces replaced the left turn of the 2000s, and since the beginning of the 2020s, the continent has again drifted to the left. The authors pay special attention to the following factors of turbulence in the development of the region: a natural-resource-based economy in most Latin American countries, poor quality of governance, a decline in trust in political institutions caused by regular corruption scandals, the criminalization of society, the increase in drug trafficking and violence, and the inability of law enforcement agencies to ensure citizens’ safety. Several chapters of the monograph are devoted to the varieties of regimes of the “21st century socialism” that exist in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia, as well as to the oldest socialist regime on the continent in Cuba. According to the reviewer’s conclusion, with the publication of this monograph the readers received valuable work that allows them to better comprehend the essence of the complex political processes that take place in Latin America today.