Abstract
Adverse health conditions and social conflict constitute major impediments for developing countries. The potential for reducing social conflict by successful public health interventions is largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention—the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa. Combining exogenous time variation in access to ART with cross-sectional variation in the scope for treatment for identification, we find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social conflict, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal that the ART expansion reduced the number of social conflict events by about 10%.
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